Economic Theory Commons^™

Essays On Inequality And Macroeconomic Stability, Thomas Hauner

All Graduate Works by Year: Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters. . .

Chapter 1: Aggregate Wealth and Its Distribution as Determinants of Financial Crises: Panel Evidence This essay investigates the relationship between wealth inequality and financial crises across a panel of nine advanced economies over the past 100 years. While substantiation of a role for income inequality is ambiguous in the literature, evidence is presented suggesting a unique capacity for the accumulation of assets to increase the likelihood of a future financial crisis episode. Testing long-run panel data with a reduced form, two-way fixed effects model, estimates suggest that increasing wealth inequality, in an economy with ...

17-13 War And Conflict In Economics: Theories, Applications, And Recent Trends, Erik O. Kimbrough, Kevin Laughren, Roman M. Sheremeta

ESI Working Papers

We review the main economic models of war and conflict. These models vary in details, but their implications are qualitatively consistent, highlighting key commonalities across a variety of conflict settings. Recent empirical literature, employing both laboratory and field data, in many cases confirms the basic implications of conflict theory. However, this literature also presents important challenges to the way economists traditionally model conflict. We finish our review by suggesting ways to address these challenges.

Trust In Cohesive Communities, Felipe Balmaceda Assoc Prof., Juan Escobar Assistant Professor

Felipe Balmaceda

Modeling Economic Systems As Locally-Constructive Sequential Games, Leigh Tesfatsion

Economics Working Papers

Real-world economies are open-ended dynamic systems consisting of heterogeneous interacting participants. Human participants are decision-makers who strategically take into account the past actions and potential future actions of other participants. All participants are forced to be locally constructive, meaning their actions at any given time must be based on their local states; and participant actions at any given time affect future local states. Taken together, these properties imply real-world economies are locally-constructive sequential games. This study discusses a modeling approach, agent-based computational economics (ACE), that permits researchers to study economic systems from this point of view. ACE modeling principles and ...

Financial Development And Financial Liberalization In Asia: Thresholds, Institutions And The Sequence Of Liberalization, Hiro Ito

Hiro (Hiroyuki) Ito

I investigate whether financial openness leads to financial development after controlling for the level of legal/institutional development, and whether trade opening is a precondition for financial opening, focusing on Asia. Utilizing a panel encompassing 87 less developed countries over the period 1980 to 2000, I find that a higher level of financial openness spurs equity market development only if a threshold level of legal development has been attained, a condition prevalent particularly among emerging market Asian countries. On the issue of sequencing, trade openness is found to be a prerequisite for successful inducement of financial development via capital account ...

East Asia And Global Imbalances: Saving, Investment, And Financial Development, Hiro Ito, Menzie David Chinn

Hiro (Hiroyuki) Ito

We investigate the role of budget balances, financial development and openness, in the evolution of global imbalances. Financial development – or the lack thereof – has received considerable attention as a possible contributing factor to the development of persistent and expanding current account imbalances. Several observers have argued that the depth and sophistication of US capital markets have caused capital to flow from relatively underdeveloped East Asian financial markets. In this paper, we extend our previous work by examining the effect of different types and aspects of financial development. Our cross-country analysis, encompassing a sample of 19 industrialized countries and 70 developing ...

The Emerging Global Financial Architecture: Tracing And Evaluating New Patterns Of The Trilemma Configuration, Joshua Aizenman, Menzie David Chinn, Hiro Ito

Hiro (Hiroyuki) Ito

This paper investigates how the trilemma policy mix affects economic performance in developing countries. We find that greater monetary independence can dampen output volatility, while greater exchange rate stability is associated with greater output volatility, which can be mitigated by reserve accumulation; greater monetary autonomy is associated with higher inflation, while greater exchange rate stability and greater financial openness is linked with lower inflation; pursuit of exchange rate stability can increase output volatility when financial development is at an intermediate stage. Greater financial openness, when accompanied by a high level of financial development, reduces output volatility.

Global Current Account Imbalances: American Fiscal Policy Versus East Asian Savings, Menzie David Chinn, Hiro Ito

Hiro (Hiroyuki) Ito

We consider the origins of global current account imbalances. We first discuss how the expansion of the US current account deficit and the decrease in global real interest rates can be reconciled with the widespread view that American expansionary fiscal policy is partly the source of current trends. We then investigate empirically the medium-term determinants of the current account using a model that controls for factors related to institutional development. In addition to the conventional macroeconomic factors, we examine a series of environmental factors, including the degree of financial openness and the extent of legal development. We find that for ...

A Forensic Analysis Of Global Imbalances, Menzie David Chinn, Barry Eichengreen, Hiro Ito

Hiro (Hiroyuki) Ito

We examine whether the behavior of current account balances changed in the years preceding the global crisis of 2008-09, and assess the prospects for global imbalances in the post-crisis period. Changes in the budget balance are an important factor affecting current account balances for deficit countries such as the U.S. and the U.K. The effect of the “saving glut variables” on current account balances has been relatively stable for emerging market countries, suggesting that those factors cannot explain the bulk of their recent current account movements. We also find the 2006-08 period to constitute a structural break for ...

Appraising Merger Efficiencies, Herbert J. Hovenkamp

Faculty Scholarship

Mergers of business firms violate the antitrust laws when they threaten to lessen competition, which generally refers to a price increase resulting from a reduction in output. However, a merger that threatens competition may also enable the post-merger firm to reduce its costs or improve its product. Attitudes toward mergers are heavily driven by assumptions about efficiency gains. If mergers of competitors never produced efficiency gains but simply reduced the number of competitors, a strong presumption against them would be warranted. We tolerate most mergers because of a background, highly generalized belief that most or at least many produce cost ...

Endogenous Lifetime And Economic Growth Revisited, Helle Bunzel, Xue Qiao

Helle Bunzel

Chakraborty [Journal of Economic Theory, 2004] introduces endogenous mortality in a two period overlapping generations model by postulating that the probability of surviving from the first period to the second depends on tax−funded public health. His central result on the existence of multiple steady states (including development traps) summarized in Proposition 1 is incorrect. This paper presents the correct proposition and its proof, and in the process, uncovers several new, interesting results. Contrary to Chakraborty's analysis, high mortality yet high capital nations may not be able to escape the poverty trap. Interestingly, TFP growth can help economies escape ...

Powerful Trend Function Tests That Are Robust To Strong Serial Correlation With An Application To The Prebish Singer Hypothesis, Helle Bunzel, Timothy J. Vogelsang

Helle Bunzel

We propose tests for hypotheses on the parameters of the deterministic trend function of a univariate time series. The tests do not require knowledge of the form of serial correlation in the data, and they are robust to strong serial correlation. The data can contain a unit root and still have the correct size asymptotically. The tests that we analyze are standard heteroscedasticity autocorrelation robust tests based on nonparametric kernel variance estimators. We analyze these tests using the fixed-b asymptotic framework recently proposed by Kiefer and Vogelsang. This analysis allows us to analyze the power properties of the tests with ...

Informal Hiring Patterns With Endogenous Job Contacts, Deanna Walker

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

I model informal hiring in a constant returns to scale, single-firm industry. Applications are accepted when the relative gain from high quality exceeds the low-quality odds. Informal applications provide two sources of information: noisy signalling through the endogenous arrival probability of applications, and an exogenous report conveyed directly by the application. I find the informal channel may be used in equilibrium to signal quality, improve connection between potential workers and the firm, or may not be used at all due to insufficient benefit, social norms, or incompatible incentives. I find complementarity between the report screening power and the quality composition ...

Crop Residues: The Rest Of The Story, Douglas L. Karlen, Rattan Lal, Ronald F. Follett, John M. Kimble, Jerry L. Hatfield, John A. Miranowski, Cynthia A. Cambardella, Andrew Manale, Robert P. Anex, Charles W. Rice

Douglas L Karlen

Synopsis In the February 15, 2009 issue of ES&T Strand and Benford argued that oceanic deposition of agricultural crop residues was a viable option for net carbon sequestration (43 [4], 1000−1007). In reviewing the calculations and bringing their experience to bear, Karlen et al. argue in this Viewpoint that crop residue oceanic permanent sequestration (CROPS) as envisioned by Strand and Benford will not work. They further propose alternative possibilities in agricultural methods to achieve a net decrease of CO2 emissions.

Classical N-Person Games And Circuits As Coalitions, Lester G. Telser

Lester G Telser

Emotions And Behavior Regulation In Decision Dilemmas, Joaquín Gómez-Miñambres, Eric Schniter

ESI Publications

We introduce a dynamic model of emotional behavior regulation that can generalize to a wide range of decision dilemmas. Dilemmas are characterized by availability of mutually exclusive goals that a decision maker is dually motivated to pursue. In our model, previous goal pursuant decisions produce negative emotions that regulate an individual’s propensity to further pursue those goals at future times. This emotional regulation of behavior helps explain the non-stationarity and switching observed between so-called “preferences” revealed in repeated decision dilemmas (e.g., by choosing A over B at time 1, then choosing B over A at time 2). We ...

The Renegotiation Of Nafta: A Look At The Potential Consequences Of A 20% Tariff On Mexican Imports, Molly Maier

Honors Theses AY 16/17

The United States' trade policy has changed over the years, and now is potentially returning to a protectionist policy with a renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement. This policy is a response to the growing discontent with free trade agreements because of the increasing unemployment in the manufacturing sector as the result of increased trade. This paper analyzes the potential consequences of a 20% tariff on Mexican imports using a Heckscher-Ohlin Model and a trade surplus model. An alternative policy option of increased government investment in the Trade Adjustment Assistance Program is presented based on the findings of ...

Consequences Of Information Asymmetry On Corporate Risk Management, Howard J. Merrill Iii

Applied Economics Theses

This paper will demonstrate the impact information asymmetry has on risk management. There is a noticeable impact within the context of consumer credit risk. If a firm is able to recognize this, they can make improved credit decisions that will reduce the consequences. The theoretical impact will be presented while depicting areas of risk management that are susceptible to information asymmetry. We find a direct impact on the development of scoring models, credit policies, and origination volume. These results hold for banks with portfolios consisting of consumer credit products and small business loans. Once known, banks can better tailor their ...

Blockholders And Their Effect On Project Value: An Empirical Approach Of Understanding Ownership Concentration And Firm Value Using An Event Study Framework, Xuanming Guo

Honors Projects

This study uses an event study framework to find the relationship between ownership concentration and project value. I find that project value first increases with ownership concentration when block size, the percentage ownership of the largest blockholder, is smaller than 10%, then declines with ownership concentration when block size gets larger, and finally rises again when block size exceeds 30%. However, my research only suggests an ambiguous relationship between ownership concentration and firm value. Additionally, ownership concentration seems to affect both the timing of market responses and the market’s interpretation of large investment projects.

A Process For Field Studies In Behavioral Economics, Victoria Ferraro

Senior Honors Projects

Field experiments enable economists to test whether theory adequately captures behavior in natural settings, or whether evidence supports reevaluating the reasoned abstractions comprising the theory. Economics, and social science more generally, has increasingly valued the evidence provided by field studies. These studies typically require a relationship with an external partner site providing the environment for the study, but existent research offers little guidance for developing these relationships and designing procedures for effective collaboration. The purpose of this paper is to provide greater insight into what is necessary to conduct field experiments in economics, particularly behavioral economics in private market settings ...