The Long-Term Structure Of Commodity Futures, 2016 Federal Home Loan Bank of Des Moines
The Long-Term Structure Of Commodity Futures, Na Jin, Sergio H. Lence, Chad Hart, Dermot J. Hayes
Futures markets on agricultural commodities typically trade with maximum maturity dates of less than four years. If these markets did trade with maturities eight or ten years distant, futures prices would have value as price forecasts and as a way to structure long-term swaps and insurance contracts. Agricultural commodity markets generally exhibit mean reversion in spot prices and convenience yields. Spot markets also exhibit seasonality. This study develops and implements a procedure to generate long-term futures curves from existing futures prices. Data on lean hogs and soybeans are used to show that the method provides plausible results.
The Beginning Farmers’ Problem In Canada, 2016 Iowa State University
The Beginning Farmers’ Problem In Canada, Sebastien Pouliot
Concerns about beginning farmers in Canada derive from trends in data that show that the population of farmers and the number of young farmers are declining. This paper discusses and analyses issues regarding the constraints and opportunities beginning farmers in Canada face. The discussion covers whether issues peculiar to beginning farmers are, from an economic policy point of view, a source of concern and whether there are motives for government intervention. The main conclusions are 1) the decline in the number of farms in Canada responds to economic forces, 2) the price of fixed assets constitutes the main barrier to ...
Econometric Analysis Of Motorists’ Preference For Ethanol In Motor Fuel, 2016 Iowa State University
Econometric Analysis Of Motorists’ Preference For Ethanol In Motor Fuel, Kenneth Liao, Sebastien Pouliot
The second installment of the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS2) requires minimum blending of ethanol and other biofuels into the motor fuel consumed in the United States. The vast majority of gasoline consumed in the United States contains no more than 10 percent ethanol. This gasoline-ethanol blend is conventionally known as E10. The maximum quantity of ethanol that can be blended into the total motor fuel pool through E10 is commonly referred to as the E10 blend wall. The quantity of ethanol mandated by the RFS2 is now reaching the point where it is set to surpass the E10 blend wall ...
Economic Contributions Of Atv-Related Activity In Maine, 2016 University of Maine - Main
Economic Contributions Of Atv-Related Activity In Maine, Jonathan Rubin, Charles Morrris
Riding ATVs has become a highly visible recreational activity in Maine. During the 2003/2004 season from July 1, 2003 to June 30, 2004 there were 59,057 ATVs registered in Maine to 45,561 separate households in Maine and from outside of Maine. During 2004, the Margaret Chase Smith Policy Center at the University of Maine in conjunction with the Maine Department of Conservation conducted a study to determine the total contribution to Maine’s economy that results from the spending related directly to the purchase and use of ATVs in Maine. We also examined the environmental and economic ...
The Peculiar Role Of The Delaware Courts In The Competition For Corporate Charters, 2016 University of Pennsylvania Law School
The Peculiar Role Of The Delaware Courts In The Competition For Corporate Charters, Jill E. Fisch
No abstract provided.
Fisheries Management With Stock Growth Uncertainty And Costly Capital Adjustment, 2016 Iowa State University
Fisheries Management With Stock Growth Uncertainty And Costly Capital Adjustment, Rajesh Singh, Quinn Weninger, Matthew Doyle
We develop a dynamic model of a fishery which simultaneously incorporates random stock growth and costly capital adjustment. Numerical techniques are used to solve for the resource-rent-maximizing harvest and capital investment policies. Capital rigidities bring diminishing marginal returns to the current period harvest, and introduce an incentive to smooth the catch over time. With density-dependent stock growth, however, catch smoothing increases stock variability resulting in reduced average yields. The optimal management policy balances the catch smoothing benefits against yield loss. We calibrate the model to the Alaskan pacific halibut fishery to demonstrate the main insights.
Fertility, Social Mobility And Long Run Inequality, 2016 Iowa State University
Fertility, Social Mobility And Long Run Inequality, Juan Carlos Cordoba, Xiying Liu, Marla Ripoll
Juan Carlos Cordoba
Dynastic altruistic models with endogenous fertility have been shown to be unable to generate enough intergenerational persistence. Using a Bewley model with endogenous fertility we show that it is possible to recover persistence. Key ingredients for our result include exponential child discounting, discrete number of children, diminishing costs of child rearing, and an elasticity of intergenerational substitution larger than one. Our model provides a unified framework of analysis for long-run inequality that incorporates fertility choices.
Supply Side Structural Change, 2016 Iowa State University
Supply Side Structural Change, Juan Carlos Cordoba
Juan Carlos Cordoba
The interest rate and the rate of economic growth are often regarded as roughly constant as economies grow. Moreover, the share of agriculture in production and the share of rural population typically shrink. We show that an otherwise standard growth model that includes a backward and an advanced sector can account for these regularities. The mechanism works as follows: as the economy accumulates capital, labor flows from the backward sector to the advanced one. This migration prevents the usual diminishing marginal returns of capital. As a result, the interest rate and the growth rate of the economy remain constant during ...
The Economic Costs Of Natural Disasters, Terrorist Attacks, And Other Calamities: An Analysis Of Economic Models That Quantify The Losses Caused By Disruptions, Amro Al Kazimi, Cameron A. Mackenzie
Cameron A. MacKenzie
Over the past decade, numerous studies have estimated the economic impacts of a variety of disruptions. Most of these studies are based on macroeconomic models that quantify the direct and indirect economic losses from a disruption. Direct economic losses occur due to damaged facilities or when consumers change their purchasing behavior because of the disruption. Indirect economic losses occur when directly impacted businesses consequently reduce their orders to their suppliers. Indirect economic losses are often larger than direct economic losses. This paper compiles the results from these economic models in order to compare the costs of different disruptions and help ...
16-16 Focality And Asymmetry In Multi-Battle Contests, 2016 University of East Anglia
16-16 Focality And Asymmetry In Multi-Battle Contests, Subhashish M. Chowdhury, Dan Kovenock, David Rojo Arjona, Nathaniel Wilcox
ESI Working Papers
This article examines behavior in two-person constant-sum Colonel Blotto games in which each player maximizes the expected total value of the battlefields won. A lottery contest success function is employed in each battlefield. Recent experimental research on such games provides only partial support for Nash equilibrium behavior. We hypothesize that the salience of battlefields affects strategic behavior (the salient target hypothesis). We present a controlled test of this hypothesis – against Nash predictions – when the sources of salience come from certain asymmetries in either battlefield values or labels (as in Schelling (1960)). In both cases, subjects over-allocate the resource to the ...
Uncovering The Relationship Between Women’S Employment And Trade Orientation Using Firm-Level Data, Mohammad Amin, Asif Islam, Khrystyna Kushnir
Can Racially Unbiased Police Perpetuate Long-Run Discrimination?, 2016 Iowa State University
Can Racially Unbiased Police Perpetuate Long-Run Discrimination?, Helle Bunzel, Philippe Marcoul
We develop a stylized dynamic model of highway policing in which a non-racist police officer exhibits a cognitive bias: relative overconfidence. The officer is given incentives to arrest criminals but faces a per stop cost which increases when the racial mix of her stops differs from that of the population. Every period, she observes the racial composition of jail inmates (generated from arrests made by her peers) and forms estimates about the crime rates of each race. In some settings, her overconfidence leads her to overestimate the crime rate of one race relative to another causing the long-run racial composition ...
Equilibrium Selection In Global Games With Strategic Complementarities, 2016 Iowa State University
Equilibrium Selection In Global Games With Strategic Complementarities, David M. Frankel, Stephen Morris, Ady Pauzner
We study games with strategic complementarities, arbitrary numbers of players and actions, and slightly noisy payoff signals. We prove limit uniqueness: as the signal noise vanishes, the game has a unique strategy profile that survives iterative dominance. This generalizes a result of Carlsson and van Damme (1993) for two player, two action games. The surviving profile, however, may depend on fine details of the structure of the noise. We provide sufficient conditions on payoffs for there to be noise-independent selection.
The Influence Of The Electric Supply Industry On Economic Growth In Less Developed Countries, 2016 University of Southern Mississippi
The Influence Of The Electric Supply Industry On Economic Growth In Less Developed Countries, Edward Richard Bee
This study measures the impact that electrical outages have on manufacturing production in 135 less developed countries using stochastic frontier analysis and data from World Bank’s Investment Climate surveys. Outages of electricity, for firms with and without backup power sources, are the most frequently cited constraint on manufacturing growth in these surveys.
Outages are shown to reduce output below the production frontier by almost five percent in Africa and by a lower percentage in South Asia, Southeast Asia and the Middle East and North Africa. Production response to outages is quadratic in form. Outages also increase labor cost, reduce ...
Introducción A La Economia, 2016 Universidad Autonoma de Coahuila
Introducción A La Economia, Vicente German-Soto
Multiple Openings And Competitiveness Of Forward Markets: Experimental Evidence, 2016 Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
Multiple Openings And Competitiveness Of Forward Markets: Experimental Evidence, José Luis Ferreira, Praveen Kujal, Stephen Rassenti
Economics Faculty Articles and Research
We test the competition enhancing effect of selling forward in experimental Cournot duopoly and quadropoly with multiple forward markets. We find that two forward periods yields competitive outcomes and that the results are very close to the predicted theoretical results for quantity setting duopolies and quadropolies. Our experiments lend strong support to the hypothesis that forward markets are competition enhancing. We then test a new market that allows for endogenously determined indefinitely many forward periods that only close when sellers coordinate on selling a zero amount in a forward market. We find that the outcomes under an endogenous close rule ...
Indirect Reciprocity, Resource Sharing, And Environmental Risk: Evidence From Field Experiments In Siberia, 2016 University of Alaska, Anchorage
Indirect Reciprocity, Resource Sharing, And Environmental Risk: Evidence From Field Experiments In Siberia, E. Lance Howe, James J. Murphy, Drew Gerkey, Colin Thor West
Integrating information from existing research, qualitative ethnographic interviews, and participant observation, we designed a field experiment that introduces idiosyncratic environmental risk and a voluntary sharing decision into a standard public goods game. Conducted with subsistence resource users in rural villages on the Kamchatka Peninsula in Northeast Siberia, we find evidence consistent with a model of indirect reciprocity and local social norms of helping the needy. When participants are allowed to develop reputations in the experiments, as is the case in most small-scale societies, we find that sharing is increasingly directed toward individuals experiencing hardship, good reputations increase aid, and the ...
Combine Harvester Econometric Model With Forward Speed Optimization, 2016 CNH America
Combine Harvester Econometric Model With Forward Speed Optimization, Nathan E. Isaac, Graeme R. Quick, Stuart J. Birrell, William M. Edwards, Bruce A. Coers
A combine harvester econometric simulation model was developed with the goal of matching the combine forward speed to the maximum harvested net income per acre. The model considers the machinery management costs of owning a combine and platform header for harvesting wheat. A statistical Design of Experiment (DOE) was used to evaluate the model using tri-level variables; the medium values constituted the model base case. Of the 27 input variables, the optimum speed was significantly influenced by the crop area, G/MOG ratio, grain unit price, field yield, field efficiency, grain moisture content, probability of a working day in the ...
Self-Correcting Kelly Strategies For Skeptical Traders, Aaron C. Brown
International Conference on Gambling and Risk Taking
The Kelly criterion gives the appropriate bet size in idealized situations with known parameters. In financial trading situations parameters are generally unknown and the mathematical assumptions underlying the Kelly proof are not met precisely. Moreover a risk manager typically must cooperate with a trader who may be skeptical about both the Kelly criterion specifically and the concept of mathematical optimization of bet size in general.
This presentation tackles the problem of designing a Kelly-based system for setting trade risk management parameters that is both self-correcting (the system delivers good results even if initial parameter are misestimated or parameters change) and ...
Lockouts And Player Productivity: Evidence From The National Hockey League, 2016 Skidmore College
Lockouts And Player Productivity: Evidence From The National Hockey League, Qi Ge, Michael J. Lopez
We implement a propensity score matching technique to present the first evidence on the impact of professional sports lockouts on player productivity. In particular, we utilize a unique natural experiment from the 2012-2013 National Hockey League lockout, during which approximately 200 players decided to play overseas, while the rest stayed in North America. We separate players based on their nationality and investigate the effect of playing abroad on postlockout player performance. We find limited evidence of enhanced productivity among European players and no evidence of a benefit or drawback for North American players. Our study contributes to the understanding of ...