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A Trillion-Dollar Question: What Predicts Student Loan Delinquencies?, Alvaro Mezza, Kamila Sommer 2016 Federal Reserve Board

A Trillion-Dollar Question: What Predicts Student Loan Delinquencies?, Alvaro Mezza, Kamila Sommer

Journal of Student Financial Aid

The recent significant increase in student loan delinquencies has generated interest in understanding the key factors predicting the non-performance of these loans. However, despite the large size of the student loan market, existing analyses have been limited by lack of data. This paper studies predictors of student loan delinquencies using a nationally representative panel data set that anonymously combines individual credit bureau records with Federal Pell Grant and federal student loan recipient information, records on college enrollment, graduation and major, and school characteristics. We show that borrower-level credit characteristics are important predictors of student loan delinquencies. In particular, credit scores ...


16-29 Using Experiments To Compare The Predictive Power Of Models Of Multilateral Negotiations, Cary Deck, Charles J. Thomas 2016 Chapman University

16-29 Using Experiments To Compare The Predictive Power Of Models Of Multilateral Negotiations, Cary Deck, Charles J. Thomas

ESI Working Papers

We conduct unstructured negotiations in a laboratory experiment designed to empirically assess the predictive power of three approaches to modeling the multilateral negotiations observed in diverse strategic settings. For concreteness we consider two sellers negotiating with a buyer who wants to make only one trade, with the modeling approaches distinguished by whether the buyer negotiates with the sellers sequentially, simultaneously, or in a “take-it-or-leave-it” fashion. Our experiment features two scenarios within which the three approaches have observationally distinct predictions: a differentiated scenario with one high-surplus and one low-surplus seller, and a homogeneous scenario with identical high-surplus sellers. In both scenarios ...


An Evolutionary Trade Network Game With Preferential Partner Selection, Leigh Tesfatsion 2016 Iowa State University

An Evolutionary Trade Network Game With Preferential Partner Selection, Leigh Tesfatsion

Leigh Tesfatsion

An evolutionary trade network game (TNG) is proposed for studying the interplay between evolutionary game dynamics and preferential partner selection in various market contexts with distributed adaptive agents. The modular form of the TNG facilitates experimentation with alternative specifications for trade partner matching, trading, expectation updating, and trade strategy evolution. Experimental results obtained using a C-t-f implementation suggest that the conventional optimal properties used to evaluate agent matching mechanisms in static market contexts may be in an equate measures of optimal from an evolutionary perspective.


Employment And Wage Dynamics In Estonia, 1989-95, Rivo Noorkoiv, Peter F. Orazem, Allan Puur, Milan Vodopivec 2016 EKE ARIKO Consulting Ltd

Employment And Wage Dynamics In Estonia, 1989-95, Rivo Noorkoiv, Peter F. Orazem, Allan Puur, Milan Vodopivec

Peter Orazem

This study monitors the effects of economic transition on wages and employment in a former Soviet Republic. Estonia's case is of particular interest because of its early adoption of relatively free labour market policies. Relative wages for the highest educated groups rose for all age groups. There were also rapid increases in returns to job experience, particularly at young ages. Increasing wage dispersion across human capital groups was accompanied by narrowing wage dispersion within human capital groups. Relative wages rose in sectors which gained relative employment, while they fell in shrinking sectors. In addition, there were large flows of ...


Editor's Introduction To The Special Edition: The Economics Of Climate Change In Coastal Areas, Charles S. Colgan 2016 Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey

Editor's Introduction To The Special Edition: The Economics Of Climate Change In Coastal Areas, Charles S. Colgan

Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economics

Editor's introduction to the Special Edition on the Economics of Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Areas


16-28 Economic Analysis With Systematically Biased Agents, Mark Schneider 2016 Chapman University

16-28 Economic Analysis With Systematically Biased Agents, Mark Schneider

ESI Working Papers

A tenet of behavioral economics is that biases are systematic and should have visible effects in economic applications. Expected utility maximization has been widely applied in economic analysis, but progress has been slower incorporating 'systematically biased' agents into applications involving risk. This contrasts with the widespread application of present-biased preferences in intertemporal settings. To address this gap, we advocate a model of quasi-rank dependent probability weighting as a natural analog to quasi-hyperbolic discounting for decisions under risk. The model satisfies stochastic dominance and transitivity and transforms individual rather than cumulative probabilities. We illustrate the model’s tractability in several economic ...


The Impacts Of Biofuels Targets On Land-Use Change And Food Supply: A Global Cge Assessment, Govinda R. Timilsina, John Beghin, Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, Simon Mevel 2016 The World Bank

The Impacts Of Biofuels Targets On Land-Use Change And Food Supply: A Global Cge Assessment, Govinda R. Timilsina, John Beghin, Dominique Van Der Mensbrugghe, Simon Mevel

John Beghin

We analyze the long-term impacts of large-scale expansion of biofuels on land-use change, food supply and prices, and the overall economy in various countries or regions using a multi-country, multi-sector global computable general equilibrium model augmented with an explicit land-use module and detailed biofuel sectors. We find that an expansion of biofuel production to meet the existing or even higher targets in various countries would slightly reduce GDP at the global level but with mixed effects across countries or regions. Significant land re-allocation would take place with notable decreases in forest and pasture lands in a few countries. The expansion ...


A Meta-Analysis Of The Impact Of Technical Barriers To Trade, Yuan Li, John Beghin 2016 Iowa State University

A Meta-Analysis Of The Impact Of Technical Barriers To Trade, Yuan Li, John Beghin

John Beghin

A meta-analysis explains the variation in estimated trade effects of technical barriers to trade broadly defined, using available estimates from the empirical international trade literature, and accounting for data sampling and methodology differences. Agriculture and food industries tend to be more impeded by these barriers than other sectors. SPS regulations on agricultural trade flows from developing exporters to high-income importers tend to impede trade. Controlling for “multilateral resistance” lowers the propensity to find that these policies impede trade. Estimations correcting endogeneity by using panel data and time fixed effect yield more negative (or less positive) trade effects of technical measures.


The Economic Costs And Benefits Of Implementing The Clean Power Plan, Jose Miguel Abito, Christopher R. Knittel, Konstantinos Metaxoglou, Andre Trindade 2016 University of Pennsylvania

The Economic Costs And Benefits Of Implementing The Clean Power Plan, Jose Miguel Abito, Christopher R. Knittel, Konstantinos Metaxoglou, Andre Trindade

Penn Wharton Public Policy Initiative

This brief looks at the costs of implementing the EPA’s Clean Power Plan. Specifically, it examines whether implementing the CPP on a state-by-state basis—that is, with each state meeting its own individual target for emissions reduction by 2030, rather than establishing regional targets—is economically efficient. The economic analysis uses data from electricity-generating firms participating in the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) Interconnection to examine the relative economic efficiency of regional versus state-by-state implementation of the CPP. The research indicates that state-by-state implementation would yield the lowest electricity prices in 2030.


16-27 The Pros And Cons Of Workplace Tournaments, Roman M. Sheremeta 2016 Chapman University

16-27 The Pros And Cons Of Workplace Tournaments, Roman M. Sheremeta

ESI Working Papers

Tournaments are commonly used in the workplace to determine promotion, assign bonuses, and motivate personal development. Tournament-based contracts can be very effective in eliciting high effort, often outperforming other compensation contracts, but they can also have negative consequences for both managers and workers. The benefits and disadvantages of workplace tournaments have been identified in theoretical, empirical, and experimental research over the past several decades. Based on these findings, I provide suggestions and guidelines for when it might be beneficial to use tournaments in the workplace.


Angels And Demons: Using Behavioral Types In A Real-Effort Moral Dilemma To Identify Expert Traits, Hernan Bejerano, Ellen P. Green, Stephen Rassenti 2016 Chapman University

Angels And Demons: Using Behavioral Types In A Real-Effort Moral Dilemma To Identify Expert Traits, Hernan Bejerano, Ellen P. Green, Stephen Rassenti

ESI Publications

In this article, we explore how independently reported measures of subjects' cognitive capabilities, preferences, and sociodemographic characteristics relate to their behavior in a real-effort moral dilemma experiment. To do this, we use a unique dataset, the Chapman Preferences and Characteristics Instrument Set (CPCIS), which contains over 30 standardized measures of preferences and characteristics. We find that simple correlation analysis provides an incomplete picture of how individual measures relate to behavior. In contrast, clustering subjects into groups based on observed behavior in the real-effort task reveals important systematic differences in individual characteristics across groups. However, while we find more differences, these ...


A Discourse On Diversity: The Impact Of Management Team Heterogeneity On Firm Performance., Robert J. Brown 2016 University of Warwick

A Discourse On Diversity: The Impact Of Management Team Heterogeneity On Firm Performance., Robert J. Brown

Undergraduate Economic Review

Quantile models are used to test the association between management team gender, ethnic and educational diversity and firm performance, employing an IV technique developed by Chernozhukov and Hansen (2008) to address the potential endogeneity issues. Estimated associations between measures of diversity and firm EBITDA margins are close to zero across much of the dependent variable distribution, but increase in magnitude for higher margin firms. No evidence of a statistically significant causal relationship between gender and ethnic diversity and firm EBITDA margins is found. Marginal evidence of a statistically significant association between margins and educational diversity is found for high margin ...


16-26 On The Robustness Of Higher Order Risk Preferences, Cary Deck, Harris Schlesinger 2016 Chapman University

16-26 On The Robustness Of Higher Order Risk Preferences, Cary Deck, Harris Schlesinger

ESI Working Papers

Economists have begun to recognize the role that higher order risk preferences play in a variety of settings. As such, several experiments have documented the degree of prudence, temperance, and to a lesser extent, edginess and bentness that laboratory subjects exhibit. More recently, researchers have argued that higher order risk preferences generally conform to mixed risk averse and mixed risk loving patterns that arise from a preference for disaggregating or aggregating harms, respectively. This paper examines the robustness of this pattern in three ways. First, it attempts to directly replicate previous results with compound lotteries over monetary outcomes. Second, it ...


16-23 Dual Process Utility Theory: A Model Of Decisions Under Risk And Over Time, Mark Schneider 2016 Chapman University

16-23 Dual Process Utility Theory: A Model Of Decisions Under Risk And Over Time, Mark Schneider

ESI Working Papers

The Discounted Expected Utility model has been a major workhorse for analyzing individual behavior for over half a century. However, it cannot account for evidence that risk interacts with time preference, that time interacts with risk preference, that many people are averse to timing risk and do not discount the future exponentially, that discounting depends on the magnitude of outcomes, that risk preferences are not time preferences, and that risk and time preferences are correlated with cognitive ability. Here we address these issues in a decision model based on the interaction of an affective and a reflective valuation process. The ...


16-25 Multi-Battle Contests: An Experimental Study, Shakun D. Mago, Roman M. Sheremeta 2016 University of Richmond

16-25 Multi-Battle Contests: An Experimental Study, Shakun D. Mago, Roman M. Sheremeta

ESI Working Papers

We examine behavior of subjects in simultaneous and sequential multi-battle contests, where each individual battle is modeled as an all-pay auction with complete information. In simultaneous best-of-three contests, subjects are predicted to make positive bids in all three battles, but we find that subjects often make positive bids in only two battles. In sequential contests, theory predicts sizable bids in the first battle and no bids in the subsequent battles. Contrary to this prediction, subjects significantly underbid in the first battle and overbid in subsequent battles. Consequently, instead of always ending in the second battle, contests often proceeds to the ...


16-21 Impulsive Behavior In Competition: Testing Theories Of Overbidding In Rent-Seeking Contests, Roman M. Sheremeta 2016 Chapman University

16-21 Impulsive Behavior In Competition: Testing Theories Of Overbidding In Rent-Seeking Contests, Roman M. Sheremeta

ESI Working Papers

Researchers have proposed various theories to explain overbidding in rent-seeking contents, including mistakes, systematic biases, the utility of winning, and relative payoff maximization. Through an eight-part experiment, we test and find significant support for the existing theories. Also, we discover some new explanations based on cognitive ability and impulsive behavior. Out of all explanations examined, we find that impulsivity is the most important factor explaining overbidding in contests.


16-19 Endogenous Market Formation And Monetary Trade: An Experiment, Gabriele Camera, Dror Goldberg, Avi Weiss 2016 Chapman University

16-19 Endogenous Market Formation And Monetary Trade: An Experiment, Gabriele Camera, Dror Goldberg, Avi Weiss

ESI Working Papers

The theory of money assumes decentralized bilateral exchange and excludes centralized multilateral exchange. However, endogenizing the exchange process is critical for understanding the conditions that support the use of money. We develop a “travelling game” to study the spontaneous emergence of decentralized and centralized exchange, theoretically and experimentally. Players located on separate “islands” can either trade locally, or pay a cost to trade elsewhere, so decentralized and centralized markets can both emerge in equilibrium. The latter maximize trade meetings and are socially efficient; the former minimize trade costs through the use of money. In the laboratory, centralized exchange more frequently ...


16-18 Do Economic Inequalities Affect Long-Run Cooperation?, Gabriele Camera, Cary Deck, David Porter 2016 Chapman University

16-18 Do Economic Inequalities Affect Long-Run Cooperation?, Gabriele Camera, Cary Deck, David Porter

ESI Working Papers

Does inequality affect a group’s cohesion and ability to prosper? Participants in laboratory economies played an indefinite sequence of helping games in random, anonymous pairs. A coin flip determined donor and recipient roles in each pair. This random shock ensured equality of opportunity but not of results, because earnings depended on realized shocks. We manipulated the ability to condition choices on this uncontrollable inequality source. In all treatments, uncertain ending supports multiple Pareto-ranked equilibria, including full cooperation. Theoretically, inequalities do not alter the incentives’ structure. Empirically, inequality disclosures altered conduct, weakened norms of mutual support and reduced efficiency.


Economic Contributions Of Atv-Related Activity In Maine, Jonathan Rubin, Charles Morrris 2016 University of Maine - Main

Economic Contributions Of Atv-Related Activity In Maine, Jonathan Rubin, Charles Morrris

Jonathan Rubin

Riding ATVs has become a highly visible recreational activity in Maine. During the 2003/2004 season from July 1, 2003 to June 30, 2004 there were 59,057 ATVs registered in Maine to 45,561 separate households in Maine and from outside of Maine. During 2004, the Margaret Chase Smith Policy Center at the University of Maine in conjunction with the Maine Department of Conservation conducted a study to determine the total contribution to Maine’s economy that results from the spending related directly to the purchase and use of ATVs in Maine. We also examined the environmental and economic ...


The Peculiar Role Of The Delaware Courts In The Competition For Corporate Charters, Jill E. Fisch 2016 University of Pennsylvania Law School

The Peculiar Role Of The Delaware Courts In The Competition For Corporate Charters, Jill E. Fisch

Jill Fisch

No abstract provided.


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