Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®

Econometrics Commons

Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®

2,329 Full-Text Articles 1,907 Authors 496,833 Downloads 106 Institutions

All Articles in Econometrics

Faceted Search

2,329 full-text articles. Page 1 of 80.

Fishing Technologies: Specification And Estimation, Quinn Weninger, Larry Perruso, Helle Bunzel 2019 Iowa State University

Fishing Technologies: Specification And Estimation, Quinn Weninger, Larry Perruso, Helle Bunzel

Economics Working Papers

This paper consistently estimates the structural properties of a multiple-species fishing technology. Our approach overcomes two ubiquitous features of fisheries data generating processes that invalidate classical estimators: (1) unobservability, by the researcher, of the in situ fish stock, and (2) endogenous production decisions that vary with fishermen’s private information about stock abundance and other economic vari- ables. Our estimations obtain consistency by exploiting the timing of production de- cisions and the information available to fishermen when endogenous production scale and scope, i.e., targeting of individual species’, decisions are made. Our estimator adopts methods used in fisheries stock assessment ...


Endogenous Market Formation And Monetary Trade: An Experiment, Gabriele Camera, Dror Goldberg, Avi Weiss 2019 Chapman University

Endogenous Market Formation And Monetary Trade: An Experiment, Gabriele Camera, Dror Goldberg, Avi Weiss

ESI Working Papers

The theory of money assumes decentralized bilateral exchange and excludes centralized multilateral exchange. However, endogenizing the exchange process is critical for understanding the conditions that support the use of money. We develop a “travelling game” to study the emergence of decentralized and centralized exchange, theoretically and experimentally. Players located on separate islands can either trade locally, or pay a cost to trade elsewhere, so decentralized and centralized markets can both emerge in equilibrium. The former minimize trade costs through monetary exchange; the latter maximizes overall surplus through non-monetary exchange. Monetary trade emerges when coordination is problematic, while centralized trade emerges ...


Improvements To Consumption Prediction: Machine Learning Methods And Novel Features, Ian Kinskey, Glenn Oswald, Charles McCann, Travis Finch, Anthony Tanaydin 2019 Souther Methodist University

Improvements To Consumption Prediction: Machine Learning Methods And Novel Features, Ian Kinskey, Glenn Oswald, Charles Mccann, Travis Finch, Anthony Tanaydin

SMU Data Science Review

Current models for predicting personal consumption expenditures (PCE) employ statistical techniques and rely upon traditional economic features. We compare vector autoregression and random forest regression models using traditional economic features as inputs to predict PCE. Additionally, we develop novel features derived from the earnings call transcripts of publicly traded U.S. companies using natural language processing (NLP) techniques. These new features reduce the mean square error (MSE) of the vector autoregression model by 7% and the random forest model by 23%. We find the random forest models outperformed the vector autoregression models, with a MSE reduction of 68%. We conclude ...


Carrots And Sticks: Optimal Contracting With Skewness Preference And Ambiguity Aversion, Joaquín Gómez Miñambres, Mark Schneider 2019 Lafayette College

Carrots And Sticks: Optimal Contracting With Skewness Preference And Ambiguity Aversion, Joaquín Gómez Miñambres, Mark Schneider

ESI Working Papers

Employment contracts often have a three-tiered structure, offering a base salary, a bonus for high performance and a penalty for poor performance. None of the standard models in contract theory generate such a contract. We show that such coarse contracts are optimal in a model where the agent exhibits two of the most robust deviations from expected utility theory: skewness preference and ambiguity aversion. The analysis identifies conditions where the optimal contract is simple and both carrots and sticks are optimal. Our analysis has implications for performance evaluation, corporate compensation structure, prize-linked savings accounts, and the determinants of intrinsic motivation.


A Bias Aggregation Theorem, Mark Schneider 2019 Chapman University

A Bias Aggregation Theorem, Mark Schneider

ESI Working Papers

In a market where some traders are rational (maximize expected utility) and others are systematically biased (deviate from expected utility due to some bias parameter, q), do equilibrium prices necessarily depend on q? In this note, focusing on the case where there is an aggregate and systematic bias in the population, we show that market prices can still be unbiased. Hence, we establish that systematically biased agents do not necessarily imply biased market prices. We show that the parametric model we use also predicts observed deviations from expected utility in laboratory and market environments.


Cooperation Among Strangers With And Without A Monetary System, Maria Bigoni, Gabriele Camera, Marco Casari 2019 University of Bologna

Cooperation Among Strangers With And Without A Monetary System, Maria Bigoni, Gabriele Camera, Marco Casari

ESI Working Papers

Human societies prosper when their members move beyond local exchange and cooperate with outsiders in the creation of wealth. Collaboration of this type presents formidable challenges because interaction is impersonal, reciprocity is unfeasible and trust cannot be easily established. Here we study this cooperation problem by modeling strategic interaction among strangers through an Intertemporal Exchange Game. The setup can be easily implemented in the laboratory to study a variety of cooperation-enhancing institutions. In particular, we study the role of a fiat monetary system by introducing intrinsically worthless tokens that can be offered in exchange for cooperation. The experiments show that ...


Accounting For Agent Heterogeneity In Market And Policy Analysis, Konstantinos Giannakas 2019 University of Nebraska-Lincoln

Accounting For Agent Heterogeneity In Market And Policy Analysis, Konstantinos Giannakas

Zea E-Books

doi:10.13014/K2416V8V

This book presents a multi-market framework of market and policy analysis that explicitly accounts for the empirically relevant heterogeneity in consumer preferences and producer characteristics. The explicit consideration of consumer and producer heterogeneity represents a significant departure from the representative consumer and producer that have been at the center of most of the literature on market and policy analysis, and enables the distributional impacts of changes in market conditions and policies to be fully identified. The framework is used to analyze the system-wide market and welfare impacts of a number of changes in market conditions (like ...


On Factor Models With Random Missing: Em Estimation, Inference, And Cross Validation, Liangjun SU, Ke MIAO, Sainan JIN 2019 Singapore Management University

On Factor Models With Random Missing: Em Estimation, Inference, And Cross Validation, Liangjun Su, Ke Miao, Sainan Jin

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider the estimation and inference in approximate factor models with random missing values. We show that with the low rank structure of the common component, we can estimate the factors and factor loadings consistently with the missing values replaced by zeros. We establish the asymptotic distributions of the resulting estimators and those based on the EM algorithm. We also propose a cross validation-based method to determine the number of factors in factor models with or without missing values and justify its consistency. Simulations demonstrate that our cross validation method is robust to fat tails in the error distribution and ...


Financial Sector In Singapore, Hwee Kwan CHOW-TAN, Sai Fan PEI 2019 Singapore Management University

Financial Sector In Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan, Sai Fan Pei

Research Collection School Of Economics

The Routledge Handbook of Banking and Finance in Asia brings together leading scholars, policymakers, and practitioners to provide a comprehensive and cutting-edge guide to Asia’s financial institutions, markets, and systems.Part I provides a country-by-country overview of banking and finance in East, Southeast, and South Asia, including examples from China, Japan, Hong Kong, India, and Singapore.Part II contains thematic chapters, covering topics such as commercial banking, development banking, infrastructure finance, stock markets, insurance, and sovereign wealth funds. It also includes examinations of banking regulation and supervision, and analyses of macroprudential regulation, capital flow management measures, and monetary policy ...


The Impact Of Transportation Network Companies On Public Transit: A Case Study At The San Francisco International Airport, Lianne Renee Sturgeon 2019 Scripps College

The Impact Of Transportation Network Companies On Public Transit: A Case Study At The San Francisco International Airport, Lianne Renee Sturgeon

Scripps Senior Theses

The emergence and rapid growth of Transportation Network Companies (TNCs), such as Uber and Lyft, has challenged the transportation industry by offering a new mode of transportation to consumers. It is imperative that transit agencies and cities understand the effect of TNCs on public transit usage to make informed decisions. This study analyzes the impact of TNCs on Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) ridership at the San Francisco International Airport (SFO) to measure the effect of TNCs on public transit. Using a fixed effects model to analyze hourly BART and TNC ridership data from 2011 to 2018, these findings suggest ...


An Examination Of The Stock Market's Effect On Economic Inequality, Nicholas Golina 2019 The University of Akron

An Examination Of The Stock Market's Effect On Economic Inequality, Nicholas Golina

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

The economic literature on economic inequality has shown that it can negatively impact aggregate demand because it indicates a higher concentration of wealth in the hands of the top 10% as opposed to the poor and middle class, who are more likely to consume. The literature has identified many factors that can lead to increasing inequality. The stock market could be one of those factors since it can either create an upward redistributive effect towards the top 10% or redistributive effect towards the middle class. This paper tested the effect of the stock market on inequality. This study contributes to ...


Specification Tests For Temporal Heterogeneity In Spatial Panel Models With Fixed Effects, Yuhong XU, Zhenlin YANG 2019 Singapore Management University

Specification Tests For Temporal Heterogeneity In Spatial Panel Models With Fixed Effects, Yuhong Xu, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose score type tests for testing the existence of temporal heterogeneity in slope and spatial parameters in spatial panel data (SPD) models, allowing for the presence of individual-specific and/or time-specific fixed effects (or in general intercept heterogeneity). The SPD model with spatial lag effect is treated in detail by first considering the model with individual-specific effects only, and then extending it to the model with both individual and time specific effects. Two types of tests (naive and robust) are proposed, and their asymptotic properties are presented. These tests are then fully extended to an SPD model with both ...


The Impact Of Regional Return On Education On The Self-Selection Of Mexican Immigrants, Warren Chen 2019 Claremont Colleges

The Impact Of Regional Return On Education On The Self-Selection Of Mexican Immigrants, Warren Chen

CMC Senior Theses

This paper uses the 2010 Mexican Population and Housing Survey to examine the role of regional return to education on migrant selection. The study uses a standard linear regression model to predict the educational attainment of migrants and compares it to the educational attainment of non-migrants in each Mexican State. It finds evidence of negative selection, that less educated Mexican citizens are more likely to migrate to the United States. It also finds little evidence of the impact of regional return to education on migrant selection. The study offers potential explanations for the lack of impact and suggests avenues for ...


Modeling Interactions Between Risk, Time, And Social Preferences, Mark Schneider 2018 Chapman University

Modeling Interactions Between Risk, Time, And Social Preferences, Mark Schneider

ESI Working Papers

Recent studies have observed systematic interactions between risk, time, and social preferences that constitute violations of `dimensional independence' and are not explained by the leading models of decision making. This note provides a simple approach to modeling such interaction effects while predicting new ones. In particular, we present a model of rational-behavioral preferences that takes the convex combination of `behavioral' System 1 preferences and `rational' System 2 preferences. The model provides a unifying approach to analyzing risk, time, and social preferences, and predicts how these preferences are correlated with reliance on System 1 or System 2 thinking.


Money Is More Than Memory, Maria Bigoni, Gabriele Camera, Marco Casari 2018 University of Bologna

Money Is More Than Memory, Maria Bigoni, Gabriele Camera, Marco Casari

ESI Working Papers

Impersonal exchange is the hallmark of an advanced society and money is one key institution that supports it. Economic theory regards money as a crude arrangement for monitoring counterparts’ past conduct. If so, then a public record of past actions—or memory—should supersede the function performed by money. This intriguing theoretical postulate remains untested. In an experiment, we show that the suggested functional equivalence between money and memory does not translate into an empirical equivalence: money removed the incentives to free ride, while memory did not. Monetary systems performed a richer set of functions than just revealing past behaviors.


A Dual System Model Of Risk And Time Preferences, Mark Schneider 2018 Chapman University

A Dual System Model Of Risk And Time Preferences, Mark Schneider

ESI Working Papers

Discounted Expected Utility theory has been a workhorse in economic analysis for over half a century. However, it cannot explain empirical violations of 'dimensional independence' demonstrating that risk interacts with time preference and time interacts with risk preference, nor does it explain present bias or magnitude-dependence in risk and time preferences, or correlations between risk preference, time preference, and cognitive reflection. We demonstrate that these and other anomalies are explained by a dual system model of risk and time preferences that unless models of a rational economic agent, models based on prospect theory, and dual process models of decision making.


Using Response Times To Measure Ability On A Cognitive Task, Aleksandr Alekseev 2018 Chapman University

Using Response Times To Measure Ability On A Cognitive Task, Aleksandr Alekseev

ESI Working Papers

I show how using response times as a proxy for effort coupled with an explicit process-based model can address a long-standing issue of how to separate the effect of cognitive ability on performance from the effect of motivation. My method is based on a dynamic stochastic model of optimal effort choice in which ability and motivation are the structural parameters. I show how to estimate these parameters from the data on outcomes and response times in a cognitive task. In a laboratory experiment, I find that performance on a Digit-Symbol test is a noisy and biased measure of cognitive ability ...


Mild-Explosive And Local-To-Mild-Explosive Autoregressions With Serially Correlated Errors, Yiu Lim LUI, Weilin XIAO, Jun YU 2018 Singapore Management University

Mild-Explosive And Local-To-Mild-Explosive Autoregressions With Serially Correlated Errors, Yiu Lim Lui, Weilin Xiao, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper firstly extends the results of Phillips and Magdalinos (2007a) by allowing for anti-persistent errors in mildly explosive autoregressive models. It is shown that the Cauchy asymptotic theory remains valid for the least squares (LS) estimator. The paper then extends the results of Phillips, Magdalinos and Giraitis (2010) by allowing for serially correlated errors of various forms in local-to-mild-explosive autoregressive models. It is shown that the result of smooth transition in the limit theory between local-to-unity and mild-explosiveness remains valid for the LS estimator. Finally, the limit theory for autoregression with intercept is developed.


A Smoothed Q-Learning Algorithm For Estimating Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regime, Yanqin FAN, Ming HE, Liangjun SU, Xiao-Hua ZHOU 2018 University of Washington

A Smoothed Q-Learning Algorithm For Estimating Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regime, Yanqin Fan, Ming He, Liangjun Su, Xiao-Hua Zhou

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we propose a smoothed Q-learning algorithm for estimating optimal dynamic treatment regimes. In contrast to the Q-learning algorithm in which non-regular inference is involved, we show that under assumptions adopted in this paper, the proposed smoothed Q-learning estimator is asymptotically normally distributed even when the Q-learning estimator is not and its asymptotic variance can be consistently estimated. As a result, inference based on the smoothed Q-learning estimator is standard. We derive the optimal smoothing parameter and propose a data-driven method for estimating it. The finite sample properties of the smoothed Q-learning estimator are studied and compared with ...


Semiparametric Maximum Likelihood Inference For Nonignorable Nonresponse With Callbacks, Zhong GUAN, Denis H. Y. LEUNG, Jing QIN 2018 Indiana University at South Bend

Semiparametric Maximum Likelihood Inference For Nonignorable Nonresponse With Callbacks, Zhong Guan, Denis H. Y. Leung, Jing Qin

Research Collection School Of Economics

We model the nonresponse probabilities as logistic functions ofthe outcome variable and other covariates in the survey sampling study withcallback. The identification aspect of this callback model is investigated. Semiparametricmaximum likelihood estimators of the parameters in the responseprobabilities are proposed and studied. As a result, an efficient estimator ofthe mean of the outcome variable is constructed using the estimated responseprobabilities. Moreover, if a regression model for conditional mean of the outcomevariable given some covariate is available, then we can obtain an evenmore efficient estimate of the mean of the outcome variable by fitting the regressionmodel using an adjusted least squares ...


Digital Commons powered by bepress