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Bubble Testing Under Polynomial Trends, Xiaohu WANG, Jun YU 2023 Singapore Management University

Bubble Testing Under Polynomial Trends, Xiaohu Wang, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper develops the asymptotic theory of the least squares estimator of the autoregressive (AR) coefficient in an AR(1) regression with intercept when data is generated from a polynomial trend model in different forms. It is shown that the commonly used right-tailed unit root tests tend to favor the explosive alternative. A new procedure, which implements the right-tailed unit root tests in an AR(2) regression, is proposed. It is shown that when the data generating process has a polynomial trend, the test statistics based on the new procedure cannot find evidence of explosiveness. Whereas, when the data generating process is …


An Experimental Test Of Algorithmic Dismissals, Brice Corgnet 2023 Chapman University

An Experimental Test Of Algorithmic Dismissals, Brice Corgnet

ESI Working Papers

We design a laboratory experiment in which a human or an algorithm decides which of two workers to dismiss. The algorithm automatically dismisses the least productive worker whereas human bosses have full discretion over their decisions. Using performance metrics and questionnaires, we find that fired workers react more negatively to human than to algorithmic decisions in a broad range of tasks. We show that spitefulness exacerbated this negative reaction. Our findings suggest algorithms could help tame negative reactions to dismissals.


The Methodology Of Multiple Regressions For Gdp Per Capita For Nations In The World Between 0 Ce And 1940, Robert Rogers 2023 Ashland University

The Methodology Of Multiple Regressions For Gdp Per Capita For Nations In The World Between 0 Ce And 1940, Robert Rogers

The Journal of Economics and Politics

A reduced-form model of GDP per capita is estimated using the classical econometric method and two Bayesian techniques, Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA) and Bayesian Analysis of Classical Estimation (BACE) for the two millenniums. For several variables, such as the impact of colonialism, the Goldstone hypothesis of efflorescence increasing economic growth, and the impact of technology, this paper lends support, especially when the Bayesian methods are applied. Other results are mixed. Generally, the results support use of Bayesian methods by eliminating hypotheses that are not consistently supported over all models.


Association Between Low Health Literacy And Adverse Health Behaviors In North Carolina, 2016, Manan Roy, Adam Hege, Erin D. Bouldin 2023 Appalachian State University

Association Between Low Health Literacy And Adverse Health Behaviors In North Carolina, 2016, Manan Roy, Adam Hege, Erin D. Bouldin

Journal of Appalachian Health

Introduction: Health literacy (HL) is an urgent public health challenge facing the U.S. HL is a critical factor in health inequities and exacerbates underlying social determinants of health.

Purpose: This study assesses the association between low HL (LHL) and adverse health behaviors, which contribute to poor health.

Methods: Researchers used North Carolina’s 2016 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data, namely, the Health Literacy optional module which asks respondents to rate how difficult it is for them to get health-related advice or to understand medical information (verbal or written). Health behaviors analyzed were excessive alcohol consumption, lack of adequate exercise and …


A Forestry Trade Data Discrepancy Analysis, Morgan Alyce Daigle 2023 Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College

A Forestry Trade Data Discrepancy Analysis, Morgan Alyce Daigle

LSU Master's Theses

Trade data across multiple databases experience unavailability across some countries/forestry products, inconsistency, and unreliability; and these qualities manifest as discrepancies in the data. Literature provides evidence of discrepancies and inconsistencies within international trade statistics, including documented cases in which they are present within agriculture sector trade.

While researchers have worked to pinpoint factors to explain discrepancies, studies on the forestry trade databases are not as prevalent. Therefore, more research needs to be conducted to identify discrepancies within forest sector products trade data to understand the nature of discrepancies found between different bilateral trading partners.

The goal of this thesis is …


Impact Of Demand For H1b Visas In The Us On The Performance Of Listed Indian Firms, Jayaditya Shekhar Maliye 2023 Claremont Colleges

Impact Of Demand For H1b Visas In The Us On The Performance Of Listed Indian Firms, Jayaditya Shekhar Maliye

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines the relationship between Indian firm performance and the demand for H1B visas in the US. To test this relationship, a fixed effects model has been used on a panel dataset of 104 Indian firms listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) over the period 2009 to 2021. The results show that an increase in H1B visa demand is negatively and significantly associated with Indian firm performance. These findings suggest that the US’s demand for high skilled labor overseas has consequences for firms in the home country.


Application Of Sentiment Analysis And Machine Learning Techniques To Predict Daily Cryptocurrency Price Returns, Edward Wu 2023 Claremont Colleges

Application Of Sentiment Analysis And Machine Learning Techniques To Predict Daily Cryptocurrency Price Returns, Edward Wu

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the effects of social media sentiment relating to Bitcoin on the daily price returns of Bitcoin and other popular cryptocurrencies by utilizing sentiment analysis and machine learning techniques to predict daily price returns. Many investors think that social media sentiment affects cryptocurrency prices. However, the results of this paper find that social media sentiment relating to Bitcoin does not add significant predictive value to forecasting daily price returns for each of the six cryptocurrencies used for analysis and that machine learning models that do not assume linearity between the current day price return and previous daily price …


Impact Of Recessions And The Business Cycle On Altruism, Nicolas De Mello 2023 Claremont Colleges

Impact Of Recessions And The Business Cycle On Altruism, Nicolas De Mello

CMC Senior Theses

I examine how recessions and the business cycle impact the time individuals allocate to altruism, using American Time Use Survey data from 2002-2019. The aim of the paper was to create a measure of altruism to explore changes in attitudes towards charity and altruism instead of the financial ability to do so. Additionally, I want to understand how economic shocks, such as recessions, impact behaviors and habits across the US population. Using ordinary least squares and the Tobit model, I created two models to capture both changes during and after recessionary periods. The first model is a regression of individuals’ …


Renewable Portfolio Standards: Effectiveness And Carbon Implications, Alexander S. Albrecht 2023 Claremont McKenna College

Renewable Portfolio Standards: Effectiveness And Carbon Implications, Alexander S. Albrecht

CMC Senior Theses

A renewable portfolio standard (RPS) policy is a popular regulatory tool implemented within the U.S. and abroad to limit energy sector emissions and incentivize renewable energy. Assessing their effectiveness and efficiency is a key component of achieving further reductions. We assess an energy market under an RPS using fixed-effects panel and 2SLS regression models to lend empirical credence to common theory-based concerns about RPS policy, namely (1) that they leave emissions unregulated once the RPS requirement is met and (2) that they do not incentivize full use of renewable energy resources. Our results show these to be valid concerns that …


The Paycheck Protection Program's Effect On Real Estate Prices, Someswar Amujala 2023 Claremont Colleges

The Paycheck Protection Program's Effect On Real Estate Prices, Someswar Amujala

CMC Senior Theses

This paper investigates the relationship between the Paycheck Protec- tion Program (PPP) and real estate price increases. The Paycheck Protection Program was established by the Small Business Association in 2020 to pro- vide forgivable loans to businesses to aid with potential losses from COVID- 19 impacts. I leverage zip code level data across the United States and a fixed effects panel data model to quantitatively measure the PPP’s influence on housing and rental prices. I find a positive and significant relationship between the number of PPP loans disbursed and housing and rental rates. Specifically, a 1% change in the number …


Endogenous Political Legitimacy: The Tudor Roots Of England’S Constitutional Governance, Avner Greif, Jared Rubin 2023 Stanford University

Endogenous Political Legitimacy: The Tudor Roots Of England’S Constitutional Governance, Avner Greif, Jared Rubin

ESI Working Papers

This paper highlights the importance of endogenous changes in the foundations of legitimacy for political regimes. Specifically, it highlights the central role of legitimacy changes in the rise of constitutional monarchy in England. It first highlights the limitations of the consensus view regarding this transition, which claims that Parliament’s military power enabled it to force constitutional monarchy on the Crown after 1688. It then turns to define legitimacy and briefly elaborates a theoretical framework enabling a historical study of this unobservable variable. The third and primary section substantiates that the low-legitimacy, post-Reformation Tudor monarchs of the 16th century promoted Parliament …


A Classical Model Of Speculative Asset Price Dynamics, Sabiou M. Inoua, Vernon L. Smith 2022 Chapman University

A Classical Model Of Speculative Asset Price Dynamics, Sabiou M. Inoua, Vernon L. Smith

ESI Working Papers

In retrospect, the experimental findings on competitive market behavior called for a revival of the old, classical, view of competition as a collective higgling and bargaining process (as opposed to price-taking behaviors) founded on reservation prices (in place of the utility function). In this paper, we specialize the classical methodology to deal with speculation, an important impediment to price stability. The model involves typical features of a field or lab asset market setup and lends itself to an experimental test of its specific predictions; here we use the model to explain three general stylized facts, well established both empirically and …


H. Keith Hunt On Consumer Behavior: Understanding His Contribution, Laura Egan, David Aron 2022 University of North Dakota

H. Keith Hunt On Consumer Behavior: Understanding His Contribution, Laura Egan, David Aron

Librarian Publications

This study uses an ego-centric bibliometric analysis of H. Keith Hunt to elucidate his connection to researchers in the consumer behavior field and his impact on the field. We identified publications written or edited by Hunt using Web of Science, Google Scholar, and the Journal of Consumer Satisfaction, Dissatisfaction and Complaining Behavior; analyzed Hunt’s co-authors and citations in those works; and tabulated Hunt’s co-cited authors for top consumer behavior journals in Web of Science. Based on the analysis and quotes from his works and others about Hunt, we also identify and discuss dimensions related to Hunt’s impact on the …


Variation And Efficiency Of High-Frequency Betas, Congshan ZHANG, Jia LI, Viktor TODOROV, George. TAUCHEN 2022 Singapore Management University

Variation And Efficiency Of High-Frequency Betas, Congshan Zhang, Jia Li, Viktor Todorov, George. Tauchen

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies the efficient estimation of betas from high-frequency return data on a fixed time interval. Under an assumption of equal diffusive and jump betas, we derive the semiparametric efficiency bound for estimating the common beta and develop an adaptive estimator that attains the efficiency bound. We further propose a Hausman type test for deciding whether the common beta assumption is true from the high-frequency data. In our empirical analysis we provide examples of stocks and time periods for which a common market beta assumption appears true and ones for which this is not the case. We further quantify …


Optimal Nonparametric Range-Based Volatility Estimation, Tim BOLLERSLEV, Jia LI, Qiyuan LI 2022 Singapore Management University

Optimal Nonparametric Range-Based Volatility Estimation, Tim Bollerslev, Jia Li, Qiyuan Li

Research Collection School Of Economics

We present a general framework for optimal nonparametric spot volatility estimation based on intraday range data, comprised of the first, highest, lowest, and last price over a given timeinterval. We rely on a decision-theoretic approach together with a coupling-type argument to directly tailor the form of the nonparametric estimator to the specific volatility measure of interest and relevant loss function. The resulting new optimal estimators offer substantial efficiency gains compared to existing commonly used range-based procedures.


A General Test For Functional Inequalities, Jia LI, Zhipeng LIAO, Wenyu ZHOU 2022 Singapore Management University

A General Test For Functional Inequalities, Jia Li, Zhipeng Liao, Wenyu Zhou

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper develops a nonparametric test for general functional inequalities that include conditional moment inequalities as a special case. It is shown that the test controls size uniformly over a large class of distributions for observed data, importantly allowing for general forms of time series dependence. New results on uniform growing dimensional Gaussian coupling for general mixingale processes are developed for this purpose, which readily accommodate most applications in economics and finance. The proposed method is applied in a portfolio evaluation context to test for “all-weather” portfolios with uniformly superior conditional Sharpe ratio functions.


Financial Crisis And Female Entrepreneurship: Evidence From South Korea, Jungho LEE, Sunha MYONG 2022 Singapore Management University

Financial Crisis And Female Entrepreneurship: Evidence From South Korea, Jungho Lee, Sunha Myong

Research Collection School Of Economics

We document a drastic increase in the number of female-owned new firms in the manufacturing industry in South Korea after the Korean financial crisis of 1997. During the crisis, a major banking-sector reform was conducted, and inefficient banks were liquidated. We nd that more female-owned and fewer male-owned firms were created after the crisis in areas that experienced severer banking-sector reform. We show evidence of discrimination against female entrepreneurs in the banking sector before the crisis: capital was misallocated in favor of less-performing malefirms before the crisis, even though investing in female firms generated higher returns and lower risks on …


Predictive Mind Reading From First And Second Impressions: Better-Than-Chance Prediction Of Cooperative Behavior, Eric Schniter, Timothy W. Shields 2022 Chapman University

Predictive Mind Reading From First And Second Impressions: Better-Than-Chance Prediction Of Cooperative Behavior, Eric Schniter, Timothy W. Shields

ESI Working Papers

People’s appearance and behaviors in strategic interactions provide a variety of informative clues that can help people accurately predict beliefs, intentions, and future behaviors. Mind reading mechanisms may have been selected for that allow for better-than-chance prediction of others’ strategic social propensities based on the sparse information available when forming first and second impressions. We hypothesize that first impressions are based on prior beliefs and available information gleaned from another’s description and appearance. For example, where another’s gender is identified, prior gender stereotypes could influence expectations and correct guesses about them. We also hypothesize that mind reading mechanisms use second …


Contingent Payments In Procurement Interactions - Experimental Evidence, Matthew J. Walker, Jason Shachat, Lijia Wei 2022 Newcastle University

Contingent Payments In Procurement Interactions - Experimental Evidence, Matthew J. Walker, Jason Shachat, Lijia Wei

ESI Working Papers

A chief objective of creating competition among suppliers is the procurement of higher quality goods at lower prices. When procuring non-standard goods, it is often difficult to write a complete specification of desired quality in the contract. A moral hazard arises when this quality is costly and determined by the supplier ex post to contracting. In an effort to mitigate this moral hazard, we introduce a correlated contingent payment contract. This contract is awarded through competitive bidding. The winning supplier’s payment is, according to a fixed probability, either the amount of their bid or a quality contingent amount that depends …


Data Supplement To 'H. Keith Hunt On Consumer Behavior: Understanding His Contribution', Laura Egan, David Aron 2022 University of North Dakota

Data Supplement To 'H. Keith Hunt On Consumer Behavior: Understanding His Contribution', Laura Egan, David Aron

Datasets

Includes the data, data collection procedures, and data notes for the bibliometric analysis components of "H. Keith Hunt on Consumer Behavior: Understanding His Contribution.” The study uses an ego-centered bibliometric analysis method developed by Howard White to examine the impact of H. Keith Hunt on the field of consumer behavior. Ego-centered analysis is based on social network analysis where the social network modes are the citation identity, citation image, citation image-makers, and co-authors of an author studied. The data files address each of these aspects and the top consumer behavior journals used for the citation image portion of the data …


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