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Effects Of The Great Recession On American Retirement Funding, Tanner G. Hamil 2017 University of Tennessee, Knoxville

Effects Of The Great Recession On American Retirement Funding, Tanner G. Hamil

University of Tennessee Honors Thesis Projects

No abstract provided.


Lag Length Selection In Panel Autoregression, Chirok HAN, Peter C. B. PHILLIPS, Donggyu SUL 2017 Singapore Management University

Lag Length Selection In Panel Autoregression, Chirok Han, Peter C. B. Phillips, Donggyu Sul

Research Collection School Of Economics

Model selection by BIC is well known to be inconsistent in the presence of incidental parameters. This article shows that, somewhat surprisingly, even without fixed effects in dynamic panels BIC is inconsistent and overestimates the true lag length with considerable probability. The reason for the inconsistency is explained, and the probability of overestimation is found to be 50% asymptotically. Three alternative consistent lag selection methods are considered. Two of these modify BIC, and the third involves sequential testing. Simulations evaluate the performance of these alternative lag selection methods in finite samples.


Are Oil Prices Important To U.S. Manufacturers?, Austin Perez Schoff 2017 Claremont McKenna College

Are Oil Prices Important To U.S. Manufacturers?, Austin Perez Schoff

CMC Senior Theses

Very little has been written about the effect that oil prices have on manufacturing output in the United States. This paper aims to shed light about the effect of oil prices, oil imports, and GDP on U.S. manufacturing output through a four-variable vector autoregression and explain the timing of these shocks through impulse response functions. Empirical results find that oil prices are significant in determining manufacturing output, but manufacturing output is also significant in determining oil prices.


Money And Monetary Policy In The Eurozone: An Empirical Analysis During Crises, Jonathan Benchimol, André Fourçans 2016 Bank of Israel

Money And Monetary Policy In The Eurozone: An Empirical Analysis During Crises, Jonathan Benchimol, André Fourçans

Jonathan Benchimol

This paper analyses the role of money and monetary policy as well as the forecasting performance of New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models with and without separability between consumption and money. The study is conducted over three crisis periods in the Eurozone, namely, the ERM crisis, the Dot-com crisis and the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The results of successive Bayesian estimations demonstrate that during these crises, the non-separable model generally provides better out of sample output forecasts than the baseline model. We also demonstrate that money shocks have some impact on output variations during crises, especially in the ...


16-31 All-Pay Auctions With Ties, Alan Gelder, Dan Kovenock, Brian Roberson 2016 Institute for Defense Analyses

16-31 All-Pay Auctions With Ties, Alan Gelder, Dan Kovenock, Brian Roberson

ESI Working Papers

We study the two-player, complete information all-pay auction in which a tie ensues if neither player outbids the other by more than a given amount. In the event of a tie, each player receives an identical fraction of the winning prize. Thus players engage in two margins of competition: losing versus tying, and tying versus winning. Two pertinent parameters are the margin required for victory and the value of tying relative to winning. We fully characterize the set of Nash equilibria for the entire parameter space. For much of the parameter space, there is a unique Nash equilibrium which is ...


Search And Active Learning With Correlated Information: Empirical Evidence From Mid-Atlantic Clam Fishermen, Philippe Marcoul, Quinn Weninger 2016 Iowa State University

Search And Active Learning With Correlated Information: Empirical Evidence From Mid-Atlantic Clam Fishermen, Philippe Marcoul, Quinn Weninger

Quinn Weninger

This paper examines search with active learning and correlated information. We first develop a simple model to show how correlation affects the decision to acquire information. A unique data set on fishing site choice by mid-Atlantic clam fishermen is used to test the model predictions. Results find that clam fishermen search new sites when the catch at familiar sites declines, i.e., when the opportunity cost of gathering information is low, and also when catch at familiar sites is on the rise. Search following a catch decline occurs at spatially distant sites whereas search following a catch increase occurs at ...


Chinese Consumer Demand For Animal Products And Implications For U.S. Pork And Poultry Exports, Qingbin Wang, Frank Fuller, Dermot J. Hayes, Catherine Halbrendt 2016 University of Vermont

Chinese Consumer Demand For Animal Products And Implications For U.S. Pork And Poultry Exports, Qingbin Wang, Frank Fuller, Dermot J. Hayes, Catherine Halbrendt

Dermot J. Hayes

This paper examines Chinese consumer preference for major animal products and assesses the potential impacts of a reduction in China’s import tariff on its pork and poultry demand and net import. Our analysis suggests that China’s demand for animal products will continue to grow as income increases. Using a trade model, results of our scenario analysis indicate that a reduction in China’s import tariffs will significantly increase its net pork and poultry imports and the U.S. will capture most of the increases. Nevertheless, the impact on the market price in China and the U.S. is ...


Welfare Maximization, Pricing, And Allocation With A Product Performance Or Environmental Quality Standard: Illustration For The Gasoline And Additives Market, Paul W. Gallagher, Hosein Shapouri, Jeffrey Price 2016 Iowa State University

Welfare Maximization, Pricing, And Allocation With A Product Performance Or Environmental Quality Standard: Illustration For The Gasoline And Additives Market, Paul W. Gallagher, Hosein Shapouri, Jeffrey Price

Paul Gallagher

Programming models approximate market prices and quantities when regulations constrain firm choices, because market outcomes result when welfare is appropriately defined and includes performance and environmental constraints. This study discusses market operation in quality-constrained sectors, like gasoline and additives; processors expand output until marginal processing cost equals the processing margin between product revenues and raw material costs; retailers who buy gasoline and additives from processors and sell blended retail gasoline price sales at a marginal cost that includes the blended input value plus adjustments for values of constrained attributes; and market supplies and demands of measurable attributes like octane are ...


Cardiovascular Disease—Risk Benefits Of Clean Fuel Technology And Policy: A Statistical Analysis, Paul Gallagher, William Lazarus, Hosein Shapouri, Roger Conway, Fantu Bachewe, Amelia Fischer 2016 Iowa State University

Cardiovascular Disease—Risk Benefits Of Clean Fuel Technology And Policy: A Statistical Analysis, Paul Gallagher, William Lazarus, Hosein Shapouri, Roger Conway, Fantu Bachewe, Amelia Fischer

Paul Gallagher

The hypothesis of this study is that there is a statistical relationship between the cardiovascular disease mortality rate and the intensity of fuel consumption (measured in gallons/square mile) at a particular location. We estimate cross-sectional regressions of the mortality rate due to cardiovascular disease against the intensity of fuel consumption using local data for the entire US, before the US Clean Air Act (CAA) in 1974 and after the most recent policy revisions in 2004. The cardiovascular disease rate improvement estimate suggests that up to 60 cardiovascular disease deaths per 100,000 residents are avoided in the largest urban ...


Dc Optimal Power Flow Formulation And Solution Using Quadprogj, Junjie Sun, Leigh Tesfatsion 2016 Iowa State University

Dc Optimal Power Flow Formulation And Solution Using Quadprogj, Junjie Sun, Leigh Tesfatsion

Leigh Tesfatsion

Nonlinear AC Optimal Power Flow (OPF) problems are commonly approximated by linearized DC OPF problems to obtain real power solutions for restructured wholesale power markets. We first present a standard DC OPF problem, which has the numerically desirable form of a strictly convex quadratic programming (SCQP) problem when voltage angles are eliminated by substitution. We next augment this standard DC OPF problem in a physically meaningful way, still retaining an SCQP form, so that solution values for voltage angles and locational marginal prices are directly obtained along with real power injections and branch flows. We then show how this augmented ...


Policy And Forecasting Models For The Chinese, South Korean, Australian, And European Union Meat Sectors, Ian Shaw, John Shaffer, V. Premakumar, Dermot J. Hayes 2016 Iowa State University

Policy And Forecasting Models For The Chinese, South Korean, Australian, And European Union Meat Sectors, Ian Shaw, John Shaffer, V. Premakumar, Dermot J. Hayes

Dermot J. Hayes

Recent strong growth in the export of U.S. meat products combined with increasing Asian demand for feed grains has focused attention on tools to analyze growth potential in these markets. This paper demonstrates that structural models of the livestock industries in foreign countries can provide information about the prospects for meat and related agricultural commodities. They can also be used to analyze the impact of policy changes.


Biofuels: Potential Production Capacity, Effects On Grain And Livestock Sectors, And Implications For Food Prices And Consumers, Dermot J. Hayes, Bruce Babcock, Jacinto F. Fabiosa, Simla Tokgoz, Amani Elobeid, Tun-Hsiang E. Yu, Fengxia Dong, Chad Hart, Eddie Chavez, Suwen Pan, Miguel Carriquiry, Jerome R. Florian-Dumortier 2016 Iowa State University

Biofuels: Potential Production Capacity, Effects On Grain And Livestock Sectors, And Implications For Food Prices And Consumers, Dermot J. Hayes, Bruce Babcock, Jacinto F. Fabiosa, Simla Tokgoz, Amani Elobeid, Tun-Hsiang E. Yu, Fengxia Dong, Chad Hart, Eddie Chavez, Suwen Pan, Miguel Carriquiry, Jerome R. Florian-Dumortier

Dermot J. Hayes

We examine four scenarios for the evolution of the biofuel sector using a partial equilibrium model of the world agricultural sector. The model includes the new Renewable Fuels Standard in the 2007 energy act, the two-way relationship between fossil energy and biofuel markets, and a new trend toward corn oil extraction in ethanol plants. At one extreme, one scenario eliminates all support to the biofuel sector when the energy price is low, while the other extreme assumes no distribution bottleneck in ethanol demand growth when the energy price is high. Of the remaining two scenarios, one considers a pure market ...


Dynamic Corn Supply Functions: A Model With Explicit Optimization, Abebayehu Tegene, Wallace E. Huffman, John A. Miranowski 2016 University of Wisconsin - Milwaukee

Dynamic Corn Supply Functions: A Model With Explicit Optimization, Abebayehu Tegene, Wallace E. Huffman, John A. Miranowski

John Miranowski

A model of optimal dynamic agricultural supply is derived and fitted assuming farmers have two annual stochastic crop production activities, a joint limitation on production capacity, interdependencies between past acreage utilization and current productivity, and rational expectations. A five-equation specification is fitted to annual data, 1948–80. Estimated parameters are consistent with the theory, and the model simulates well. The long-run price elasticity of corn acreage is 0.2, which is similar to those obtained from ad hoc dynamic models, but our short-run elasticities are different.


The Effects Of Mtbe Bans On Ethanol Production, Feed Markets, And The Iowa Economy, Paul Gallagher, Guenter Schamel, Hosein Shapouri, Jeff Price, Mark Dikeman, Heather Brubacker 2016 Iowa State University

The Effects Of Mtbe Bans On Ethanol Production, Feed Markets, And The Iowa Economy, Paul Gallagher, Guenter Schamel, Hosein Shapouri, Jeff Price, Mark Dikeman, Heather Brubacker

Paul Gallagher

Ethanol isa gasoline additive. Increasing quality demands ofmodem gasoline engines and government regulations on health and clean air have shaped the gasoline additives market. So fer, two regulatory changes stand out. First, a lead-based additive, the octane-increasing choice during the 50s and 60s, was banned during the 70s because itcauses cancer. Second, the U.S. EPA required that the largest U.S. cities use reformulated gasoline with fuel quality restrictions that reduce smog (groiind level ozone) and improve other dimensions of airquality inthemost densely populated areas oftheU.S. An oxygen standard was included inthe fuel quality restrictions onreformulated fuel, on ...


Human Capital Investment In Agriculture For Competitiveness: Discussion Report Section Vi, Wallace E. Huffman 2016 Iowa State University

Human Capital Investment In Agriculture For Competitiveness: Discussion Report Section Vi, Wallace E. Huffman

Wallace Huffman

Before beginning a review of his paper let me say that Paul Schultz has written a number of important articles (cited in his references) dealing with the contribution of several aspects of human capital to economic growth and development, and I would encourage you to read them. His work is more general than his presentation for this conference suggests. Schultz focuses here on the impact of schooling, health and migration (three important types of human capital), on wage rates of a sample of male and female wage earners from Ghana and Cote d' Ivoire (1985-9). He uses a flexible hedonic ...


Optimal Pricing Strategies For A Cluster Of Goods: Own- And Cross-Price Effects With Correlated Tastes, Francisco Rosas, Santiago Acerenza, Peter Orazem 2016 Universidad ORT Uruguay and Centro de Investigaciones Económicas (CINVE)

Optimal Pricing Strategies For A Cluster Of Goods: Own- And Cross-Price Effects With Correlated Tastes, Francisco Rosas, Santiago Acerenza, Peter Orazem

Peter Orazem

gent valuation methods are used to identify observed and unobserved preferences of goods and services. We apply these methods to compute willingness to pay (WTP) for a product conditional on having purchased another offered product. We provide a derivation for own-price and compensated cross-price elasticities whose results suggest a pricing strategy considering all offered goods simultaneously. Therefore, we solve the social planner’s problem maximizing a weighted function of producer’s revenues and consumer’s utility for the set of optimal prices. We show an application to collegiate sports, but these methods can be extended in a straightforward fashion to ...


16-30 Asymmetric Social Norms, Gabriele Camera, Alessandro Gioffré 2016 Chapman University

16-30 Asymmetric Social Norms, Gabriele Camera, Alessandro Gioffré

ESI Working Papers

Studies of cooperation in infinitely repeated matching games focus on homogeneous economies, where full cooperation is efficient and any defection is collectively sanctioned. Here we study heterogeneous economies where occasional defections are part of efficient play, and show how to support those outcomes through contagious punishments.


Household Production And The Demand For Food And Other Inputs: U.S. Evidence, Wallace E. Huffman 2016 Iowa State University

Household Production And The Demand For Food And Other Inputs: U.S. Evidence, Wallace E. Huffman

Wallace Huffman

The paper develops a new productive household model and a consistent household fullincome/ expenditure demand system for inputs and leisure of U.S. households. The demand system is fitted to U.S. annual aggregate data over the last half of the 20th century and findings include that the price and income elasticity of demand for food-at-home are roughly two times larger than for food-away-from-home and that food-at-home and away-from-home are substitutes. The price and income elasticity of demand for men’s unpaid housework are twice as large as for women’s unpaid housework and women’s and men’s unpaid ...


Understanding Post-War Changes In U.S. Household Production: A Full-Income Demand-System Perspective, Wallace Huffman 2016 Iowa State University

Understanding Post-War Changes In U.S. Household Production: A Full-Income Demand-System Perspective, Wallace Huffman

Wallace Huffman

This paper examines the changing structure of U.S. household production over the post-World War II period. We apply production theory in order to define a new set of inputs for U.S. households and use newly constructed data so as to examine with the aid of a relatively simple complete household aggregate demand system. The goal is to extent our understanding of the changing structure of the U.S. household sector over the post-World War II period, including the demand for inputs of women’s and men’s housework or unpaid household labor and seven other aggregate input categories ...


Who Do Consumers Trust For Information: The Case Of Genetically Modified Foods?, Wallace E. Huffman, Matthew Rousu, Jason F. Shogren, Abebayehu Tegene 2016 Iowa State University

Who Do Consumers Trust For Information: The Case Of Genetically Modified Foods?, Wallace E. Huffman, Matthew Rousu, Jason F. Shogren, Abebayehu Tegene

Wallace Huffman

During the twentieth century, research and development (R&D) has produced a steady stream of inventions and new consumer goods, many of which have been adopted and proven to be the source of a rising standard of living (Boskin et al.). The introduction of new goods, however, creates a disequilibrium (Hausman), which in turn creates a demand by economic agents for objective information to assist in making decisions on adoption and use (Schultz).1 The consumer's challenge is to sort through the various, competing and sometimes conflicting, sources of information.


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