Macroeconomics Commons^™

Treasury Buybacks, The Fed's Portfolio, And Local Supply, Ethan Struby, Michael F. Connolly

Department of Economics Working Paper Series

The U.S. Department of Treasury has announced plans to revive its buyback program after more than two decades. We estimate the effects of the 2000-2002 Treasury Buyback program on Treasury returns and the Federal Reserve's System Open Market Account (SOMA) portfolio. The reduction in supply from the buybacks had significant effects on both the bonds purchased by the buybacks and bonds with similar remaining maturity. Changes in supply contributed about 90 basis points to price returns over the course of the program -- nearly 1/5 of the overall change in prices. At a higher frequency, prices of purchased bonds and …

How Global Value Chains Affect Economic Output And Unemployment: An Empirical Evidence From Asean Countries, Sri Juli Asdiyanti Samuda

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This paper examines the effects of Global Value Chains on economic output and unemployment in ten ASEAN countries from 1999 to 2018. This study provides estimation using the system GMM and panel causality test to determine the effect of GVC thoroughly. The results indicate a positive and significant effect of global value chains on economic output in ASEAN countries. However, the findings also show that global value chains increase unemployment during the observation period. Heterogenous panel non-causality findings suggest that economic output does not affect the level of participation of GVC, but unemployment affects the level of participation in ten …

Principles Of Macroeconomics (Online), Murat Doral

KSU Distinguished Course Repository

This course is an introduction to the formal study of macroeconomics. Macroeconomics involves the study of the economy as a whole. Topics that are covered include national income determination, the general price level, interest rates, unemployment, and fiscal and monetary policies.

Grameen Method Of Microfinance As A Poverty-Alleviation Tool: Short And Long-Term Effects On Women’S Empowerment In Egypt, Zeina M. Shalaby

The Undergraduate Research Journal

Many people suffer from poverty globally, and economic tools used to combat it have varied from one country to another with some enacting noticeable change. The topic of micro-credit attracted attention after the Grameen Bank’s microfinance method was recognized for decreasing poverty in rural Bangladesh by granting loans to women almost exclusively. This paper explores the application of the Grameen method of microfinance in Egypt by reviewing the specific conditions surrounding women’s poverty in Egypt and the economic and social outcomes of past Grameen microfinance efforts in Egypt. While the Grameen method of microfinance successfully improved well-being indicators and economic …

Striving Toward Bitcoin Price Stability: Second-Layer Money And The Case For Real Bills, Scrip & Notes, Eduardo Blasco, Carlos García De Enterría

Journal of New Finance

Monetary systems comprise various layers of real and financial assets arranged hierarchically. Due to its properties, Bitcoin is a suitable asset to become the base money of a monetary system once its price has stabilized and people see it more like a medium of exchange than an investment. We review Bitcoin’s characteristics and explain their effect on its intra- and inter-temporal liquidity. We argue that Bitcoin will lower its bid-ask spread once users adopt financial assets convertible to Bitcoin. We propose the use of three financial assets working as Bitcoin derivatives to reduce Bitcoin’s demand shocks and lower its volatility: …

Local Labor Markets Exposure To Artificial Intelligence, Greg Call

Dissertations

As more evidence builds that artificial intelligence (AI) is a new general-purpose technology driving a fourth industrial revolution, scholars have begun to consider its potential impact on labor markets. The current debate among researchers is centered on whether AI will ultimately produce net new job gains or losses and what type of workers will benefit or be displaced. While no consensus has developed yet within the literature on AI’s predicted net employment impact, a majority of studies are forecasting that a skill-biased technological change will occur.

This exploratory study contributes to the current literature by operationalizing Webb’s objective patent-based AI …

Common Bubble Detection In Large Dimensional Financial Systems, Ye Chen, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi

Research Collection School Of Economics

Price bubbles in multiple assets are sometimes nearly coincident in occurrence. Such near-coincidence is strongly suggestive of co-movement in the associated asset prices and is likely driven by certain factors that are latent in the financial or economic system with common effects across several markets. Can we detect the presence of such common factors at the early stages of their emergence? To answer this question, we build a factor model that includes I(1), mildly explosive, and stationary factors to capture normal, exuberant, and collapsing phases in such phenomena. The I(1) factor models the primary driving force of market fundamentals. The …

Regresi Ambang Untuk Mendalami Pengaruh Nonlinier Kekuatan Pasar Terhadap Pinjaman Bank Di Asean-5, Mahjus Ekananda

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

Credit distribution has developed rapidly in the ASEAN region and it is largely dominated by the banking sector compared to other financial institutions. This study explores the effects of various changes to the GDP growth regime, firm size, and monetary policy. The objects of this research are commercial banks in ASEAN-5 from year 2010 to 2019. This study utilises the threshold regression method and a single proxy to measure market power. Results of this study found that monetary policy and market forces affect productive credit. Changes in impact that occur are mostly due to different behavior between banks in response …

Democratic Facades, Authoritarian Penchants: Post-Communist Monetary Restructuring In The Baltic States, Jokubas Salyga

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper argues that the paths taken by Estonia and Latvia in their departure from the rouble zone are illustrative of authoritarian neoliberal governance. By challenging the widely assumed simultaneity of ‘democratic’ and ‘market’ revolutions, it critiques institutionalist literature on Baltic exchange-rate regimes and sheds light on the various methods employed to curtail democratic political discourse and participation. The paper delves into the origins of the Baltic neoliberal historical blocs and identifies the social forces that influenced the development of monetary reform initiatives. It then explores the construction of exchange-rate systems through the lens of power struggles within the state …

Monetary Policy And Stagflation: A Trade-Off Between Price Stability And Economic Growth?, Leef H. Dierks

Journal of New Finance

Several euro area economies are likely to experience a stagflation in 2023. This situation is characterized by a combination of economic stagnation, i.e., GDP growth falling below its potential growth rate, and a pronounced increase in inflation as was last observed during the 1970s’ oil crisis. A stagflation presents the European Central Bank with a dilemma. Should it further tighten its monetary policy in an attempt to align euro area inflation (expectations) with its target of two per cent p.a. in the medium term? Or should the ECB re-adopt a more accommodative stance so as to stimulate economic growth in …

Essays On Macroeconomics, Mauricio Torres Ferro

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

My dissertation consists of three essays on Macroeconomics. In the first two chapters, I study the implications of uncertain expenses for households' savings and for their consumption adjustment in response to monetary policy. In the third chapter, I study how asset liquidity affects households’ ability to smooth idiosyncratic income shocks.

In the first chapter, I characterize uncertain expenses using U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey data. Here, my goals are twofold. First, I classify households’ spending that captures uncertainties in expenses (for example, car and home repairs or out-of-pocket medical expenses) and measure their overall importance. Second, I aim to understand how …

Quality Of Growth And Poverty In Low Income Countries: The Role Of Manufacturing, Raul V. Fabella, Sarah Lynne S. Daway-Ducanes, Geoffrey Ducanes

Economics Department Faculty Publications

Both the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) which ended in 2015, and its replacement the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nations which will end in 2030, target the eradication of poverty. The 2020 Covid pandemic has seriously worsened poverty incidence in many low income countries, and recovering lost ground is paramount. As low income economies try to establish a new normal, they need to aim not only for higher overall economic growth but also for a higher quality of economic growth for improved inclusion outcome. Higher quality means more inclusion per unit growth. We discuss how for the same …

Revisiting The Exchange Rate Pass- Through To Domestic Prices In Egypt, Ahmed Abdelhamid

Theses and Dissertations

Exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) refers to the extent to which the movements in the exchange rate influence domestic prices. This study revisits the exchange rate pass-through in Egypt using quarter data from 2006 to 2022. The study employs a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model to estimate the degree of ERPT. The findings suggest that ERPT in Egypt is incomplete, meaning that changes in the exchange rate do not fully pass through to consumer prices. The study also investigates the role of the money supply in absorbing the shocks in the nominal exchange rate. The study has important implications for policymakers …

The Economic Analysis Of Conflicts And Peace In Autocratic And Democratic Regimes In Africa, Oluwole Owoye

Journal of African Conflicts and Peace Studies

This paper uses conceptual economics to explain how conflicts and peacebuilding are linked to economic growth/development in Africa. Both conflicts and peace have contagion effects in many countries worldwide, and in some cases, conflicts have morphed into regional and international problems. Conceptually, the monotonicity of conflicts and peace functions are invariant with respect to autocratic and democratic forms of governance in Africa. One of the main assertions of this study is that whether or not we have stable autocratic and/or democratic forms of governance, protracted conflicts have negative impact on sustainable economic growth in Africa. In addition, we found that …

The Macrodynamics Of Indian Rupee Swap Yields, Tanweer Akram, Khawaja Mamun

WCBT Working Papers

This paper econometrically models the dynamics of Indian rupee (INR) swap yields based on key macroeconomic factors using the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach. It examines whether the short-term interest rate has a decisive influence on long-term INR swap yields after controlling for other factors, such as core inflation, the growth of industrial production, the logarithm of the equity price index, and the logarithm of the INR exchange rate. The estimated models show that the short-term interest rate has an important influence on the swap yields. This implies that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) can sway borrowing and lending …

The Economic Surplus, The Baran Ratio, And Long Wave Cycles, Thomas E. Lambert

Faculty Scholarship

This paper briefly outlines the idea and development of the economic surplus concept at the macroeconomic level as opposed to the one in microeconomics often labeled as a Marshallian surplus. Of special interest and focus is the concept as developed and used by heterodox economists. The notion of a residual amount of output or income over and above what is necessary for a society’s consumption (education, housing, food, clothing, health care, transportation, and other necessities of life) that can be used either for further consumption by an elite class, used for reinvestment in productive activities, and/or wasted on unproductive efforts …

Sociodemographic Effects On Financial Inclusion: Implications From Online Transaction In Developing-8 Countries, Dyah Titis Kusuma Wardani, Navi'ah Khusniati, Susilo Nur Aji Cokro Darsono

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

The world has reached the industry 4.0, where technological developments have been widely applied to electronic payment, with no exception on Muslim countries. This study aims to investigate association between sociodemographic and financial inclusion in country D-8 in the probability of using online financial transactions. Using The Global Findex 2017 from D-8 Organization for Economic Cooperation included in OIC countries and the logistic regression, this study explores the effect of sociodemographic namely gender, education, income status and working status on online financial transactions users. Using control variables such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Inflation and Exchange reta, results show that, …

Energy And Economic Growth Nexus: A Long-Run Relationship In Indonesia, Kelvan Darrian, Patricia Scholastica, Yohanes B. Kadarusman, Dandy Rafitrandi

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Energy plays an important role in economic growth in which it affects total factor productivity (TFP). Energy conservation efforts to address global climate change may adversely affect economic growth, particularly in the long run. This study analyses the short- and long-run relationship between energy consumption (both non-renewable (NREC) and renewable (REC)) and economic growth in Indonesia within the period of 1985 to 2019. Using the vector-error correction model (VECM), the paper discovered a short-run unidirectional causality from NREC and REC to economic growth. Economic growth in Indonesia is dependent on energy consumption. The finding proves the growth hypothesis in the …

A Mathematical Approach To The Money Multiplier Analysis On Indonesian 1997–1998 Monetary Crisis, Albertus Prabu Siagian

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

In crisis moments, massive liquidity supports, extensive cash withdrawal, and large reserve hoarding can all lead to the change in monetary base, currency ratio, and reserve ratio respectively. In turn, all these disruptions could cause money supply to change. This research aims to find out which factor (among the change in monetary base, currency ratio, and reserve ratio) became the main causal factor of increasing money supply in Indonesia during 1997–1998 crisis. The method follows mathematical equation models used by Friedman & Schwartz (1963) and Stauffer (2006) in analyzing Great Depression in the US. This research has found that the …

Chinese Political Rhetoric And Ideology: Tension And Pretension, Israel Paredes

Honors Theses

This changing nature of the Chinese government’s ideology leads one to believe that its core beliefs are not dogmatic, despite the foundation for their ideology being rooted in specific societal and economic theories. Starting with Mao Zedong to modern day, the Chinese government officials will continue to support the original tenets (and, no doubt, future presidents’ additions to the tenets). However, the interpretation of their ideology over time is fluid and is used to support policies and actions during a political cycle. Chinese political leaders are unlikely to disagree with a past leaders, and will rather use their own interpretation …