Improvements To Consumption Prediction: Machine Learning Methods And Novel Features, 2019 Souther Methodist University
Improvements To Consumption Prediction: Machine Learning Methods And Novel Features, Ian Kinskey, Glenn Oswald, Charles Mccann, Travis Finch, Anthony Tanaydin
SMU Data Science Review
Current models for predicting personal consumption expenditures (PCE) employ statistical techniques and rely upon traditional economic features. We compare vector autoregression and random forest regression models using traditional economic features as inputs to predict PCE. Additionally, we develop novel features derived from the earnings call transcripts of publicly traded U.S. companies using natural language processing (NLP) techniques. These new features reduce the mean square error (MSE) of the vector autoregression model by 7% and the random forest model by 23%. We find the random forest models outperformed the vector autoregression models, with a MSE reduction of 68%. We conclude ...
Accounting For Agent Heterogeneity In Market And Policy Analysis, 2019 University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Accounting For Agent Heterogeneity In Market And Policy Analysis, Konstantinos Giannakas
This book presents a multi-market framework of market and policy analysis that explicitly accounts for the empirically relevant heterogeneity in consumer preferences and producer characteristics. The explicit consideration of consumer and producer heterogeneity represents a significant departure from the representative consumer and producer that have been at the center of most of the literature on market and policy analysis, and enables the distributional impacts of changes in market conditions and policies to be fully identified. The framework is used to analyze the system-wide market and welfare impacts of a number of changes in market conditions (like ...
Ten Years Of Economic Analyses For The European Marine Strategy Framework Directive: Overview Of Experiences And Lessons Learned, Rob Van Der Veeren, Ann Kathrin Buchs, Günter Hörmandinger, Soile Oinonen, Conceição Santos, Max Vretborn
Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economics
The European Marine Strategy Framework Directive, which came into force in 2008, requires from Member States inter alia to perform various (types of) economic analyses. In order to help Member States to implement this directive, the European working group on Economic and Social Analysis was initiated in 2009. This working group has developed various guidance documents which have been very useful in helping each other to understand the Directive and its requirements, to develop one language, to understand the pros and cons of various approaches, and to share experiences. However, up until now, outside of this working group this information ...
Free Trade And Corporate Social Responsibility: Ethical Dilemmas In Global Economic Development, 2018 California State University, Monterey Bay
Free Trade And Corporate Social Responsibility: Ethical Dilemmas In Global Economic Development, Sarah Papion
Capstone Projects and Master's Theses
Through the lens of the free-trade-optimist, it is black and white: corporations bring jobs, and jobs equal a happy and healthy economy. A major oversight in this neoliberal Utopian ideology is that corporations are not in the business of building communities, nor do they have an interest in keeping their operations stationary enough to allow economic growth to occur over a span of years. Corporations abandon communities as quickly as they arrive to find their next cheap labor hub. Quite contradictory to the original purpose of free trade, economic growth in Free Trade Zones is not long term or secure ...
Efficiency With Endogenous Population And Fixed Resources, 2018 Iowa State University
Efficiency With Endogenous Population And Fixed Resources, Juan Carlos Cordoba, Xiying Liu
Economics Working Papers
This article studies socially optimal allocations, in the first-best sense, in environments characterized by fixed resources and endogenous fertility. Individuals in our environment are fully rational and altruistic toward their descendants, the social planner is benevolent, and there is full information. Our model allows for rich heterogeneity of abilities, preferences for children, and costs of raising children. We find that efficient allocations in the endogenous fertility case differ significantly from its exogenous fertility counterpart. In particular, optimal steady-state population is proportional to the amount of fixed resources and to the level of technology while steady state individual consumption is independent ...
Foreign Capital Inflows And Economic Well-Being: A Statistical Analysis Of 46 Sub-Saharan African Countries From 1995-2015, Alexander M. Csanadi
Undergraduate Economic Review
Variation in the economic well-being among sub-Saharan African countries is among the highest of any region in the world. This paper attempts to address this disparity by exploring the role of foreign capital inflows. This project extends the concept of well-being beyond GDP growth, to include measures of poverty and inequality. A multivariate regression analysis finds that the observed capital inflows have significant effects on all three measurements of well-being. Findings suggest that the level of affluence of the domestic population has significant effects on the ability of those populations to translate diaspora remittances into improvements in well-being.
Accounting For Leverage In Intangible And Tangible Investments Across The Business Cycle, 2018 Boston University
Accounting For Leverage In Intangible And Tangible Investments Across The Business Cycle, Neil Mauskar
Undergraduate Economic Review
In this paper, I study the role of the leverage ratio and its impact on investing in tangible and intangible goods. The results confirm the hypotheses outlined in the introduction. Specifically, the results show that when accounting for differences in the leverage ratio between firms, investment is cyclical. However, when looking only at firms with low leverages, intangible investing becomes countercyclical. Moreover, during recessions, firms with lower leverages tend to invest more than firms with higher leverages. Finally, the results argue for the existence of financial frictions between investing in tangibles and intangibles.
Essays On Parental Leave And Family Labour Supply, 2018 The University of Western Ontario
Essays On Parental Leave And Family Labour Supply, Youjin Choi
Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository
This thesis studies married couples' decisions regarding labour supply, fertility, and take-up of parental leave. Importantly, it emphasizes household interactions in a family labour supply framework where husbands and wives jointly make decisions.
In Chapter 2, I describe how differences in married individuals' time allocations between Canada and the U.S. may be related to different parental leave policies in the two countries. First, I document background information on parental leave policies and take-up behaviour in the two countries. Second, I analyze married individuals' time allocations using data from the General Social Survey (GSS) for Canada and American Time Use ...
Essays In New Keynesian Monetary Policy, 2018 The Graduate Center, City University of New York
Essays In New Keynesian Monetary Policy, Tzu-Hao Huang
All Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects
The dissertation consists of three Chapters. I consider New Keynesian models which involve tradeoffs between output gap and inflation variances. Such policy strategy is often referred to as flexible inflation targeting rules (e.g., Lars Svensson 2011, pp.1238-95). Taylor rules, in general, have the symbolic expression 𝑖t=𝜑x𝑥t+𝜑𝜋𝜋t+𝜑g𝑔t, where 𝑖t is the nominal interest rate at period t, 𝑥t is the target variable output gap at period t, 𝜋t is the target variable inflation rate at period t, 𝑔t is realized shock to ...
Non-Linear Time Series Modelling With Applications To Equity And Fixed Income Markets, 2018 The University of Western Ontario
Non-Linear Time Series Modelling With Applications To Equity And Fixed Income Markets, Galyna Grynkiv
Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository
My thesis focuses on theoretical and empirical aspects of modelling time series during different financial and economic conditions. It consists of three separate chapters in which the properties of Threshold Vector Autoregressive Model (TVAR) models are addressed with subsequent applications to equity and fixed income markets. In the first chapter, which is a joint work with my supervisor Lars Stentoft, we examine the steady state properties of the TVAR model. Assuming the trigger variable is exogenous and the regime process follows a Bernoulli distribution, we derive the necessary and sufficient conditions for existence of a stationary distribution. The derived stationarity ...
Three Essays On Macroeconomics And Laboratory Experiments, 2018 University of Arkansas, Fayetteville
Three Essays On Macroeconomics And Laboratory Experiments, Justin Leblanc
Theses and Dissertations
This dissertation examines two prominent macroeconomic models and their behavioral underpinnings in a laboratory setting. The first is that of state-dependent pricing models (i.e., “menu cost” models). Comparisons were made between laboratory results and a computer- simulated optimal behavior, and results indicate that subjects update prices too frequently resulting in statistically suboptimal profits due to subjects’ inability to clearly ascertain the optimal threshold at which to update prices. Second, the consumption predictions made under rational inattention theory were examined via a laboratory experiment. Results indicate that subjects’ behavior aligns well with predictions in that they consume stochastically, yet adjust ...
Three Essays On Growth, Housing Market And Inequality, 2018 Florida International University
Three Essays On Growth, Housing Market And Inequality, Shahrzad Ghourchian
FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations
This dissertation includes three essays on growth, the housing market, and inequality. In the first essay, I analyze the effects of government consumption and government debt on long-run economic growth by considering the economic characteristics of the countries investigated. Linear regressions reveal that government consumption has a much bigger negative impact on long-run growth compared with the negative (and sometimes insignificant) effects of government debt. Nonlinear analyses further show that such effects are highly impacted by the economic characteristics of the countries investigated.
In the second essay, I study time-series fluctuations in the United States housing market from 2010 to ...
Resource Nationalism And Energy Integration In Latin America: The Paradox Of Populism, 2018 Florida International University
Resource Nationalism And Energy Integration In Latin America: The Paradox Of Populism, Brian Hollingsworth
FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations
This dissertation examines the relationship between resource nationalism and energy integration, and uses Bolivia and Brazil as a test case. Essentially, does resource nationalism affect energy integration? The findings nest within more expansive questions on international political economy and export-driven models of development. Why do populist regimes, historically operating under an economic nationalist cum protectionist paradigm, simultaneously pursue policies of economic integration? What is the relationship between resource nationalists and open markets, especially in the hydrocarbons sector? What is the relationship between populists, who are typically resource nationalists, and their decision to choose policies of energy integration?
The most common ...
An Economics Primer For Cyber Security Analysts, 2018 Texas Christian University
An Economics Primer For Cyber Security Analysts, John T. Harvey
Military Cyber Affairs
One of the ingredients necessary to an understanding of the impact of cyber attacks is a reliable model of the economy. We face great challenges in trying to protect an already potentially unstable system from cyber aggression and operating with a flawed understanding of the determinants of output, employment, asset prices, et cetera, surely condemns us to failure. This is so not only because we need to know where points of leverage might exist for bad actors to disrupt and disable our system, but because policy recommendations may face significant push back from both selected scholars and powerful vested interests ...
Moderate Growth With A Stronger Industrial Sector, 2018 University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Moderate Growth With A Stronger Industrial Sector, Eric Thompson
Business in Nebraska
Nebraska will record solid economic growth during the forecast period but will lag U.S. growth. While Nebraska’s large farming sector has stabilized, it will not contribute much to economic growth during the forecast period. Job growth also will be sluggish in transportation, retail trade and state and local government. Job growth, however, will be stronger in the services, finance, manufacturing and construction. Projected growth rates for 2018 to 2020 are presented in Table 1.
Employment will grow by 0.8% to 1.0% per year, below the national rate. Non-farm income will grow between 3.6% and 3 ...
Globalization, Conflict, And The Effects Of The Rate Of Change Of Globalization: An Empirical Analysis, 2018 Seattle Pacific University
Globalization, Conflict, And The Effects Of The Rate Of Change Of Globalization: An Empirical Analysis, Ashley Stephens
The world is becoming increasingly more interconnected with technological advances leading to more and more globalization. It is important to see how globalization affects society, especially in the lesser developed post-conflict regions of Africa. The theories of liberalism, Marxism, and realism all offer plausible, yet strikingly different theories on the relationship between globalization and conflict. This paper conceptually examines the dominant theories of globalization and conflict, then uses open-source panel data on globalization and conflict in Africa to empirically test which theory is supported by the data, then tests if there is a correlation between the rate of globalization and ...
Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting With A Heteroskedastic Inversion Copula, 2018 Melbourne Business School
Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting With A Heteroskedastic Inversion Copula, Ruben Loaiza-Maya, Michael S. Smith
Michael Stanley Smith
The Economic Impacts Of A U.S. Withdrawal From Nafta: A Cge Analysis, 2018 University of Toronto Schools
The Economic Impacts Of A U.S. Withdrawal From Nafta: A Cge Analysis, Jonathan Liu
Undergraduate Economic Review
The aim of this study is to examine the economic impacts of a U.S. withdrawal from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on Canada, Mexico and the United States. The shocks simulate scenarios in which the U.S instates penalizing tariff rates on NAFTA countries, a trade war between NAFTA members and a tariff reset to the WTO MFN rates. The effects of these tariff structures are analyzed under the framework of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with a focus on macroeconomic variables and welfare. The findings show that, in all iterations, Mexico’s economy takes a ...
Essays In Business Cycles And Asset Pricing, 2018 Southern Methodist University
Essays In Business Cycles And Asset Pricing, Ruiyang Hu
Economics Theses and Dissertations
This dissertation investigates several key macroeconomic and asset pricing topics, with a particular interest in exploring the underlying driving forces of business cycles and asset market fluctuations. The dissertation includes three chapters, with the first two chapters solo-authored by me and the third chapter co-authored with Dr. Carlos Zarazaga.
The first chapter develops a dynamic and stochastic general equilibrium model, and exploits Bayesian inference methods to investigate the major sources of fluctuations in aggregate variables and asset prices. Taking into account the possibility that the growth of total factor productivity, labor-augmenting technology and investment-specific technology might consist of permanent and ...
Public Policy And Millennium Development Challenges: Case Study Of Africa, 2018 The University of San Francisco
Public Policy And Millennium Development Challenges: Case Study Of Africa, Pathkonn Kombate
Based on a panel of 50 African countries from 1970 to 2015, this study analyzes the impact of public investments and spending in education and health sectors on GDP per capita growth. I separately modeled for education and health capital, while controlling for governance and demonstrated the importance of investments and expenditures on human capital in countries production capacity accumulation, which in the long run leads sustainable economic growth. Results show a positive relationship between spending in those sectors and the per capita income growth and proves their importance on the continents’ combat against poverty.