Macroeconomics Commons^™

Capitalism In Europe Vs. Latin America, Brandy Mace, Lucas E. Mainhart, Caleb Edwards, Dayton Lamb, Jesus Herrera-Herrera

ATU Research Symposium

Focusing on the years 1995 to 2023, what are the universal traits of capitalism versus the more varying or flexible traits, as demonstrated by comparing European and Latin American practices of capitalism. For the country comparisons, researchers have agreed on 3 common variables to evaluate the capitalist practices of a Latin American country with a European one. These shared variables are 1) The power of the country's currency, 2) The informal versus formal employment of the labor force, as well as unemployment rate, and 3) The income gap between the rich and poor. Each researcher will also include 1-3 additional …

Trade Liberalization With Brics: A Cge Model Of Egypt, Kareem Ashraf

Theses and Dissertations

This paper presents an ex-ante impact assessment of a hypothetical FTA between Egypt and the BRICS from an Egyptian economy-wide and sectorial perspectives, with a granular look into manufacturing. The chosen methodology is a static SAM-based Computable General Equilibrium model calibrated to Egypt’s 2018-2019 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). With respect to existing literature, the paper uniquely stands in considering an Egypt-BRICS FTA with a granular assessment of manufacturing subsectors and in running a simulation of Egypt’s trade liberalization with the wider BRICS alliance, including the accession of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Ethiopia, and Iran, which joined the bloc along with Egypt …

Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Inflation Expectations In India? Evidences From Surveys Of Household And Professional Forecasters, Irfan Ali Kc

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study examines whether inflation targeting (IT) anchors household and professional forecasters expectations in India. It investigates whether food and non-food inflation affect anchoring inflation expectations differently. Primarily, the results indicate significant decreases in the level and variability of expectations. Further, it provides evidence of successful anchoring for professional forecasters' and household expectations. However, it also found food inflation assist anchoring of expectations, while the non-food inflation doesn't. The results suggest the central bank to emphasize more on non-food inflation for better anchoring prospects. Additionally, the study identifies food inflation as the primary contributor to headline inflation variability.

Spillover Effects Of Capital Controls: A Critical Review And New Agenda For The Future Directions, Biswajit Panigrahi, K.P Prabheesh

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study tries to undertake a critical review of the spillover effects of capital controls and their welfare implications. We provide a synthesis of the literature on both the theoretical and empirical literature on the spillover effects of capital controls. Furthermore, the role of similar economies (geographical region, and economic characteristics), direction-specific capital controls, global financial crisis (GFC), asset-specific capital controls and the compositional effect of capital flows are discussed to explore the degree and extent of spillover effects of capital controls policy. Similarly, the welfare implications of capital controls depend on the policy motive behind the imposition of capital …

Reinvigorating Gva Nowcasting In The Post-Pandemic Period: A Case Study For India, Kaustubh Na, Soumya Suvra Bhadury, Saurabh Ghosh

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

We reinvigorate nowcasting models considering structural changes caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. It emphasizes the need to understand the heterogeneous impact of shocks on agriculture, industry, and services sectors in an emerging market economy (e.g., India). Our findings advocate a bottom-up approach that tracks sectors separately rather than a headline number. Our results suggest including digital-activity index and supply-side disruption index in the post-pandemic period could improve nowcast performance. Expectation-Maximization (E-M) algorithm is used to combine data series based on their availability. Among bridging methods, the averaging method is preferred due to its simplicity and flexibility.

Digitalization And Economies Of Oic Countries, Mohsin Ali, Urooj Anwar, Mudeer Ahmed Khattak, Muhammad Umar Islam

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This paper studies the impact of digitalization on the Organization of Islamic countries (OIC) economies. The study is conducted to see whether digitalization is playing its role in enhancing economic growth. We employ a panel dataset consisting of twenty-one years from 2000 to 2020 for 57 OIC countries. We use the system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator. The results indicate that digitalization positively impacts the economies of OIC countries. As for policy implication, this study recommends governments of OIC member countries to invest in digital infrastructure in order to foster economic growth.

Fiscal Administration Versus Fiscal Policy: An Investigation Into The Determinants Of The Real Tax Revenues From Consumption Tax In Egypt, Nariman Zahran

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis highlights the importance of fiscal administration relative to fiscal policies. It presents a broad view of the developments in both fields and tests their effects on real revenues from consumption tax in Egypt from fiscal year 2002 till 2023. It initially explains the proxies used for fiscal administration: the size of the tax base and the collection lag. The major fiscal policy change in Egypt was shifting from sales tax to Value-Added Tax (VAT) during fiscal year 2016/17. The effects of fiscal administration and fiscal policy on real tax revenues will be assessed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag …

Essays In Macroeconomics And Finance, Archil Dvalishvili

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Chapter 1: (A Quantitative Analysis of Interest on Reserves and Reserve Requirements) - I construct a medium scale DSGE model with financial frictions both on the demand (entrepreneurs) and supply (banks) sides of credit to study the costs and benefits of fixed/time-varying minimum reserve requirements and interest paid by the Fed on reserves.The results can be summarized as follows: (1) An optimal time-varying minimum reserve requirement generates substantial welfare gain when compared with a fixed minimum reserve requirement when no interest is paid on reserves. (2) Paying interest on reserves is substantially welfare inferior to a policy with no interest …

Inflation Expectations And Political Polarization: Evidence From The Cooperative Election Study, Ethan Struby, Christina Farhart

Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Using a unique, nationally representative survey from the 2022 midterm elections, we investigate the partisan divide in beliefs about inflation and monetary policy. We find that party identity is predictive of inflation forecasts even after conditioning on beliefs about both past inflation and the Federal Reserve’s long-run inflation target. Partisan forecast differences are driven by respondents who express low generalized trust in others and have a high degree of political knowledge; high-trust and low- knowledge partisans make similar forecasts all else equal. This finding is consistent with the literature in political psychology that examines the endorsement of conspiracy theories and …

Analysis Of Government Stimulus During Covid-19 And The Bank Distress Of 2023, Kara Hagler

CMC Senior Theses

Due to the hardships that small businesses were facing from the onset of COVID-19 in March 2020, the government created the Payment Protection Program (PPP). This program used banks as the initial lenders for small business loans to facilitate loans from the government to small businesses. In this article, I study how participation in the PPP lending program contributes to the Bank Distress of 2023 by using a bank-level quarterly panel data set from 2019-2023. Estimation of difference-in-difference specifications reveals banks that opted into the PPP program experienced an increase in held-to-maturity securities relative to non PPP banks. The mechanism …

Driven By Change: The Impact Of Macroeconomic Shifts And Covid-19 On New Vehicle Sales, Jackson Aldrich

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the impact of macroeconomic factors and the COVID-19 pandemic on new vehicle sales. In order to address these two topics, a two-pronged approach was used with separate regression models. The macroeconomic variables include monthly supply of new homes, CPI for urban public transportation, unemployment rate, disposable personal income, inflation expectation, consumer sentiment, average gas prices, and total vehicle miles traveled which were regressed on total vehicle sales from 1978-2022. The regression results confirmed and supported current literature and highlighted the importance of the housing market and unemployment rate on new vehicle sales. The COVID-19 pandemic model variables …

Intersectoral Conáict And Delays In Macroeconomic Stabilization, Arslan Razmi

Economics Department Working Paper Series

An important body of literature explores the political economy reasons
underlying delays in macroeconomic stabilization. This paper develops
a framework to analyze conflict between two groups of economic actors,
one that has an endowment of internationally tradable goods and another
that is endowed with non-tradable goods. The focus is on the exchange
rate policy in a developing country set-up where the government employs
seigniorage revenue to finance spending pre-stabilization, and faces fiscal
and balance of payments problems that necessitate stabilization with a step
devaluation. The presence of exchange rate and endowment uncertainty,
the role of forward-looking expectations, and the possibility …

Can Price Controls Be Optimal? The Economics Of The Energy Shock In Germany, Tom Krebs, Isabella M. Weber

Economics Department Working Paper Series

In the wake of the global energy crisis, many European countries used energy price controls to fight inflation and to stabilize the economy. Despite its wide adoption, many economists remained skepti- cal. In this paper, we argue that price controls should be part of the policy toolbox to respond to shocks to systemically important sectors because not using them can have large economic and polit- ical costs. We put forward our arguments in two steps. In a first step, we analyze the impact on the German economy and society of the global energy crisis that followed Russia’s attack on Ukraine …

Reducing Food Scarcity: The Benefits Of Urban Farming, S.A. Claudell, Emilio Mejia

Journal of Nonprofit Innovation

Urban farming can enhance the lives of communities and help reduce food scarcity. This paper presents a conceptual prototype of an efficient urban farming community that can be scaled for a single apartment building or an entire community across all global geoeconomics regions, including densely populated cities and rural, developing towns and communities. When deployed in coordination with smart crop choices, local farm support, and efficient transportation then the result isn’t just sustainability, but also increasing fresh produce accessibility, optimizing nutritional value, eliminating the use of ‘forever chemicals’, reducing transportation costs, and fostering global environmental benefits.

Imagine Doris, who is …

Market For Patents, Monopoly, And Misallocation, Shang-Jin Wei, Jianhuan Xu, Ge Yin, Xiaobo Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

The paper studies a possible “dark side” of patent trade in enhancing the market power of monopolists. We explore the different effects of China’s 2008 tax reform on patent innovations and sales across industries. In particular, although easier patent trade leads to more patent creation, the new patents are disproportionately connected to existing monopolists and are more likely to be acquired by them. Using an endogenous growth model with patent trade, we show that subsidizing patent trade could skew investors’ research to appeal to the monopolists, increase the latter’s monopoly power, and reduce social welfare. An optimal subsidy policy for …

Exchange Rate Responses And Volatility Spillover Effects During The Covid-19 Pandemic In Indonesia, Panky Tri Febiyansah

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This paper aims to assess the impact of the confirmed COVID-19 cases, the timing of the outbreak, and physical measures on the returns and spillover effects of exchange rate in Indonesia. The model will be tested by the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (EGARCH) process and the spillover volatility index. The study discovers that the confirmed cases, outbreak news, and the implementation of large-scale social restrictions simultaneously contribute to a leverage effect on the volatility of a direct quote of Indonesian Rupiah to Australian Dollar, Euro, US Dollar, Singapore Dollar, and Great British Pound. To a certain extent, the heatwave …

Do Price Controlled Basic Food Items Affect Inflation In Fiji?, Joel Abraham, Akeneta Vonoyauyau, Seema W. Narayan Prof.

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This note examines the effects of price-controlled perishable food items on inflation in Fiji. We study year-on-year changes in headline inflation and disaggregate measures of inflation in the form of food and non-alcoholic beverages and vegetables against three perishable food items used daily by Fijian households, namely, potatoes, onion, and garlic over the period 2019:01-2022:08. We also follow Narayan et al (2023), allowing for the lags and leads framework in examining Fiji’s inflation. Our results show that the leads and lags model explain 22%, 27% and 65% of headline, food and non-alcoholic beverages and vegetables inflation rates, respectively, over the …

Structure Of Indiana’S Manufacturing Sector During And After The Great Recession: A Spatial Perspective, Arun K. Srinivasan, Kathleen G. Arano, Janardhanan A. Alse

Midwest Social Sciences Journal

The trend in manufacturing employment is on a downward trajectory nationally, further exacerbated by short-term fluctuations. Indiana mirrors this trend, and as such, we explore the structure of the manufacturing sector using a spatial and snapshot approach during and after the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Using two measures: (1) average firm size and (2) gap in percent of local manufacturing employment, we explain the dynamics at specific periods, viz., 2007 at the beginning of the Recession, 2009 at the trough of the Great Recession, 2014 at a point in recovery from the Great Recession, and 2016 at the endpoint for …

Will The Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028 Targets Be Met?, Jesus Felipe

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

EARLY THIS YEAR, President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. signed the Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028 (PDP). The document contains hundreds of targets. Some of the key targets to be attained by 2028 are as follows (in fact, the Plan provides yearly targets):

1.) an annual growth rate of 6.5-8% (since 2024); 2.) a gross national income per capita of $6,044-$6,571 (50% higher than that in 2023); 3.) inflation between 2%-4% (from 2.5%-4.5% in 2023); 4.) a government fiscal deficit of 3% (from 6.1% in 2023); 5.) a debt-to-GDP ratio of 48%-53% (from 60%-62% in 2023); 6.) an unemployment rate of 4%-5% (from …

Explaining The Proliferation Of U.S. Billionaires During The Neoliberal Period, Rob Piper

Class, Race and Corporate Power

This article explains the proliferation of U.S. billionaire wealth during the neoliberal period (1980 to the present). Using the work of scholars, investigative journalists, and government researchers, it examines descriptive evidence from the past forty years of the economic, social, and political trends associated with the capital accumulation that led to so much wealth being concentrated with so few individuals. It further creates a theoretical framework of institutional factors (or “drivers”) that help to understand how these trends link together to provide a comprehensive explanation for the increase of billionaires in comparison with other economic gauges like GDP, income distribution, …