Econometrics Commons^™

Studying The Effects Of Non Oil Exports On Targeted Economic Growth In Iranian 5th Development Plan: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach, Rasoul Bakhsi Dastjerdi Dr., Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Somayye Jafari

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

we investigate the effects of non oil export on Iran’s economic growth using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) and study which tradable sectors has a larger share in reaching to targeted growth rate 8% in 5th socio economic development plan. We calibrate the model by GAMS (with emphasis on foreign trade sector). Numerical solution to the model is based on Iran’s social accounting matrix (SAM). Results show that 2.03% of targeted economic growth rate is achieved by encouraging a 6% growth in export. It also be mentioned that industry and mine sector in Iran, has more influence on growth than …

Some Matlab Routines To Compute Crps And Quantile Weighted Ps, Michael S. Smith

Michael Stanley Smith

Three routines to compute the CRPS of Gneiting and Raftery (JASA 2007) and the quantile weighted probability score (QWPS) extension in Gneiting and Ranjan (JBES, 2011). They are based on numerical integration as discussed in the Appendix of Smith and Vahey (2015), and I have found them to be much more accurate than using Monte Carlo approximation to the difference of two expectations, as advocated in Panagiotelis and Smith (IJF, 2008).

Copula Modelling Of Dependence In Multivariate Time Series, Michael S. Smith

Michael Stanley Smith

Toward More General Hedonic Estimation: Clarifying The Roles Of Alternative Experimental Designs With An Application To A Housing Attribute, Michael D. Eriksen, Thomas Kniesner, Christopher Rohlfs, Ryan Sullivan

Michael D Eriksen

Our research develops a more general hedonic model in which an exogenous shock to a single product attribute can affect other attributes, the markets for the product’s complements and substitutes, and aggregate quantity produced. The factors are shown to be empirically relevant and to cause bias in traditional approaches. Experimental estimators of attribute demand are introduced that address biases, are transparent, and are straightforward to implement. We apply one of the estimators developed to measure the marginal value placed by householders on subsidized carbon monoxide detectors.

Convergencia En Tecnología, Cinthya Caamal, Claudia Sánchez, Vicente German-Soto

Vicente German-Soto

Prices And Social Behavior: Evidence From Adult Smoking In Canadian Aboriginal Communities, Jesse A. Matheson

Jesse A Matheson

The Impact Of The Volatility Of Monetary Policy On A Small Economy: Some Evidence From New Zealand, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Jiling Cao, Wenjun Zhang

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

This paper investigates the impact of the international and domestic volatility of monetary policy shocks on a small economy using the GARCH-SVAR model. We enrich the SVAR model by using time-varying International and domestic volatilities as endogenous variables. The results show that although monetary policy shocks have transient effect on real economy (neutrality of money) the impact of the volatility of monetary policy shocks on real part of the economy is permanent and significant. Findings of variance decomposition also show that New Zealand heavily depends on international trade, so international monetary shocks can have a permanent impact on the local …

The Dynamics Of Firm Behavior Under Alternative Cost Structures, George A. Hay

George A. Hay

A large and growing number of studies attempt to determine the important factors affecting firms' decisions with respect to price, output, and inventories. A striking feature of this literature is the embarrassingly large number of alternative models—all allegedly consistent with the principles of profit maximization—which are used to justify various reduced form or behavioral equations to be estimated with the appropriate firm or industry data. It is rare, however, that the equations to be estimated are derived rigorously from the underlying model. Because of this, the restrictions placed on the equations to be estimated are often limited at worst to …

External Economies And Competitive Equilibrium, George A. Hay, John J. Mcgowan

George A. Hay

In an article published in 1955, Murray Kemp analyzed the case for interference with the competitive allocation of resources when external economies of production are present. In the specific model we are interested in—where the costs of any one producer's operations are affected by the total output of all producers of the same product—Kemp attempted to show that where entry into the industry is closed (although the industry is otherwise perfectly competitive), "there can always be found a subsidy, either on the product or on a particular factor, which will be a sufficient incentive to firms to produce an optimal …

Adjustment Costs And The Flexible Accelerator, George A. Hay

George A. Hay

The flexible accelerator concept has provided the rationale for the regression equations used in several recent econometric studies of inventory behavior. In such a model a desired (or equilibrium) level of inventories is defined, but because of costs involved in changing the level of stocks only a partial adjustment of inventories to their desired level is achieved in any time period. This leads to the familiar decision rule in which current inventory is a linear function of the previous period's stock plus a variable or set of variables representing current demand. The purpose of this note is to question whether …

A General Solution For Linear Decision Rules: An Optimal Dynamic Strategy Applicable Under Uncertainty, George A. Hay, Charles C. Holt

George A. Hay

Linear decision rules for controlling complex systems are often obtained by matrix inversion, but transform methods offer an alternative approach that yields insights into the structure of the decision problem of maximizing expected payoffs under constraints.

The Nexus Between Infrastructure Investment And Economic Growth In The Mexican Urban Areas, Vicente German-Soto, Héctor A. Barajas Bustillos

Vicente German-Soto

Infant Mortality: Cross Section Study Of The United State, With Emphasis On Education, Daniel C. Sheets-Poling

Stevenson Center for Community and Economic Development—Student Research

On the surface infant mortality is usually thought of as just a unfortunate part of life in what can happen to an individual family, but infant mortality is part of the factors that affect social capital, which can lead back to overall trust in a community. When that trust starts to wither within a community, economic activity will be affected as community members will not behave as they usually do within their given economic boundaries. While social capital is not solely affected by infant mortality, it does show what type of health status an area has. As a community, state, …

Sources Of Productivity Spillovers: Panel Data Evidence From China, Badi H. Baltagi, Peter H. Egger, Michaela Kesina

Center for Policy Research

This paper assesses sources of productivity spillovers in China's electric and electronic manufacturing industry using a rich panel data-set of 25,360 firms observed over the period 2004-2007. This industry is characterized by its important reliance on technology. In particular, the paper focuses on the role of other firms' productivity as well as productivity shifters in affecting own firm-level total factor productivity. In addition, this paper examines the possible difference between spillovers from foreign-owned units and from units which participate at global markets through exporting in comparison to domestically-owned and non-exporting units. We find evidence of stronger spillovers from exporting firms …

Firm-Level Productivity Spillovers In China’S Chemical Industry: A Spatial Hausman-Taylor Approach, Peter H. Egger, Badi H. Baltagi, Michaela Kesina

Center for Policy Research

This paper assesses the role of intra-sectoral spillovers in total factor productivity across Chinese producers in the chemical industry. We use a rich panel data-set of 12,552 firms observed over the period 2004-2006 and model output by the firm as a function of skilled and unskilled labor, capital, materials, and total factor productivity, which is broadly defined. The latter is a composite of observable factors such as export market participation, foreign as well as public ownership, the extent of accumulated intangible assets, and unobservable total factor productivity. Despite the richness of our data-set, it suffers from the lack of time …

Random Effects, Fixed Effects And Hausman’S Test For The Generalized Mixed Regressive Spatial Autoregressive Panel, Badi Baltagi, Long Liu

Center for Policy Research

This paper suggests random and fixed effects spatial two-stage least squares estimators for the generalized mixed regressive spatial autoregressive panel data model. This extends the generalized spatial panel model of Baltagi, Egger and Pfaffermayr (2013) by the inclusion of a spatial lag dependent variable. The estimation method utilizes the Generalized Moments method suggested by Kapoor, Kelejian, and Prucha (2007) for a spatial autoregressive panel data model. We derive the asymptotic distributions of these estimators and suggest a Hausman test a la Mutl and Pfaffermayr (2011) based on the difference between these estimators. Monte Carlo experiments are performed to investigate the …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- December 2014, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

An Examination Of The Correlation Between Educational Attainment And Upward Economic Mobility Within And Without ‘High Tech Clusters’ In The Us In 2012, Hannah Cecilia Oakley

Chancellor’s Honors Program Projects

No abstract provided.

Structural Change Estimation In Time Series Regressions With Endogenous Variables, Junhui Qian, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose to apply the group fused Lasso to estimate time series models with endogenous regressors and an unknown number of breaks. It can correctly determine the number of breaks and estimate the break dates asymptotically. Simulations and applications are given.

Testing The Martingale Hypothesis, Peter C. B. Phillips, Sainan Jin

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose new tests of the martingale hypothesis based on generalized versions of the Kolmogorov–Smirnov and Cramér–von Mises tests. The tests are distribution-free and allow for a weak drift in the null model. The methods do not require either smoothing parameters or bootstrap resampling for their implementation and so are well suited to practical work. The article develops limit theory for the tests under the null and shows that the tests are consistent against a wide class of nonlinear, nonmartingale processes. Simulations show that the tests have good finite sample properties in comparison with other tests particularly under conditional heteroscedasticity …