Econometrics Commons^™

The Financial Crisis Impact On Potential Output In Iran, Fatemeh Almasi, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Jalili Khodaparast Shirazi Dr.

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

In this study the quarterly data from 1996:1-2011:2 have been used to investigate the effect of financial crisis on potential output in Iran. For this purpose potential output, natural unemployment rate, spread between short-run and long-run interest rate and real money supply variables are used to estimate Auto Regressive Model and analyze Impulse-Response function and Variance Decomposition. The results show that financial crisis has a negative impact on potential output in Iran. Also, monetary shocks have negative impact on potential output in Iran. As regards, monetary policy has no effect on actual output in long-run, it seems that monetary policies …

The Impact Of Global And Domestic Volatility Of Monetary Policy: A Var-Garch Approach, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Jiling Cao Prof., Wenjun Zhang Dr.

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

In the past six decades a lot of research has been carried out to find the effect of monetary policy on real economy. But in the most of these articles, the effect of the volatility of monetary policy has been ignored. This paper investigates the impact of the international and domestic volatility of monetary policy shocks using the GARCH-VAR model. We enrich the VAR model by adding time-varying volatility as endogenous variables. We consider three different types of shocks: internal (domestic), regional and global. For our empirical evidence we use quarterly data of Australia and New Zealand from 1988:1 to …

A Regional Perspective Of The Innovation, The Knowledge Capital And The Productivity In Mexico, Luis Gutiérrez Flores, Vicente German-Soto, Denise Alejandra Gallegos Treviño

Vicente German-Soto

A Closer Look At The Impact Of Quantitative Easing On The Capital Markets: Garch Analysis Of The Exchange Traded Funds Market, Nicholas R. Duafala

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper analyzes the effects of quantitative easing (QE) on the capital markets by modeling exchange traded funds (ETFs) returns using a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) methodology. The results show that the 10-Year Treasury yields are significant in the returns of some sectors of the economy more so than others, and the Federal Funds Futures trading volume is significant in all ETFs return volatility. The implications of these results not only provide information about the reaction of the ETF market and QE, but also provide insight for developing investment strategies.

Top Of The Order: Modeling The Optimal Locations Of Minor League Baseball Teams, W. Coleman Conley

Undergraduate Economic Review

Over the last twenty-five years, minor league baseball franchises have defined firm mobility. Revisiting the work of Michael C. Davis (2006), I construct a logistic regression model to predict which cities house minor league baseball teams. Six variables are tested for inclusion in the model, including population, income level, the number of major-league professional sports teams in a city, five-year population change, and distance from the closest professional team. Based on the model's predicted probabilities, cities are ranked in order of highest probability of having a team at each of the different levels from Class A to Class AAA.

Financialization Of The Commodities Futures Markets And Its Effects On Prices, Manisha Pradhananga

Doctoral Dissertations

After declining for almost three decades, the food price index of the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) rose by 90 percent between January 2002 and June 2008. Besides the magnitude, the rise in prices was remarkable for its breadth, affecting a broad range of commodities including agricultural (wheat, corn, soybeans, cocoa, coffee), energy (crude oil, gasoline), and metals (copper, aluminum). According to the US Department of Agriculture, this price spike was responsible for increasing the number of malnourished people by 80 million. These dramatic developments in prices coincided with a rapid inflow of investment into the commodities futures market -- …

Productive Stagnation And Unproductive Accumulation In The United States, 1947-2011., Tomas N. Rotta

Doctoral Dissertations

My doctoral research addresses the question of how productive and unproductive forms of capital accumulation interact in the United States. My contribution is to first develop a new understanding of the labor theory of value in order to better explain how financial and rentier forms of revenues relate to the wealth created in productive activities. Second, I offer an innovative analysis of historical trends regarding unproductive accumulation in the postwar United States economy. For that purpose, I propose a new methodology to estimate Marxist categories from conventional input-output matrices, national income accounts, and employment data. A core feature of my …

A Multivariate Analysis Of The Causal Flow Between Renewable Energy Consumption And Gdp In Tunisia, Maamar Sebri, Ousama Ben-Salha

Maamar Sebri

This paper examines the causality linkages between economic growth, renewable energy consumption, CO2 emissions and domestic investment in Tunisia between 1971 and 2010. Using the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration, long-run relationships between the variables are identified. On the other hand, the Granger causality analysis indicates that there is bi-directional causality between renewable energy consumption and economic growth, which supports the validity of the feedback hypothesis. In addition, the quantity of CO2 emissions collapses as a reaction to an increase in renewable energy consumption. These findings remain robust even when controlling for the presence of structural break. We conclude …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- November 2014, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Norming Rates And Limit Theory For Some Time-Varying Coefficient Autoregressions, Offer Lieberman, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

A time-varying autoregression is considered with a similarity-based coefficient and possible drift. It is shown that the random-walk model has a natural interpretation as the leading term in a small-sigma expansion of a similarity model with an exponential similarity function as its AR coefficient. Consistency of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator of the parameters in this model is established, the behaviours of the score and Hessian functions are analysed and test statistics are suggested. A complete list is provided of the normalization rates required for the consistency proof and for the score and Hessian function standardization. A large family of unit …

Three Essays On The Economics Of Defense Contracting, Output And Income Inequality, Edward M. Decambra

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation analyzes both the economics of the defense contracting process and the impact of total dollar obligations on the economies of U.S. states. Using various econometric techniques, I will estimate relationships across individual contracts, state level output, and income inequality. I will achieve this primarily through the use of a dataset on individual contract obligations.

The first essay will catalog the distribution of contracts and isolate aspects of the process that contribute to contract dollar obligations. Accordingly, this study describes several characteristics about individual defense contracts, from 1966-2006: (i) the distribution of contract dollar obligations is extremely rightward skewed, …

Empirical Law And Economics, Jonah B. Gelbach, Jonathan Klick

All Faculty Scholarship

Empirical work has grown in importance in law and economics. This growth coincides with improvements in research designs in empirical microeconomics more generally. In this essay, we provide a stylized discussion of some trends over the last two or three decades, linking the credibility revolution in empirical micro to the ascendancy of empirical work in law and economics. We then provide some methodological observations about a number of commonly used approaches to estimating policy effects. The literature on the economics of crime and criminal procedure illustrates the ways in which many of these techniques have been used successfully. Other fields, …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- October 2014, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

A New Hedonic Regression For Real Estate Prices Applied To The Singapore Residential Market, Jiang Liang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper develops a new hedonic method for constructing a real estate price index that utilizes all transaction price information that encompasses both single-sale and repeat-sale properties. The new method is less prone to specification errors than standard hedonic methods and uses all available data. Like the Case-Shiller repeat-sales method, the new method has the advantage of being computationally efficient. In an empirical analysis of the methodology, we fit the model to all transaction prices for private residential property holdings in Singapore between Q1 1995 and Q2 2014, covering several periods of major price fluctuation and changes in government macro …

Additive Nonparametric Regression In The Presence Of Endogenous Regressors, Deniz Ozabaci, Daniel J. Henderson, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this article we consider nonparametric estimation of a structural equation model under full additivity constraint. We propose estimators for both the conditional mean and gradient which are consistent, asymptotically normal, oracle efficient, and free from the curse of dimensionality. Monte Carlo simulations support the asymptotic developments. We employ a partially linear extension of our model to study the relationship between child care and cognitive outcomes. Some of our (average) results are consistent with the literature (e.g., negative returns to child care when mothers have higher levels of education). However, as our estimators allow for heterogeneity both across and within …

Bound Estimator Of Hiv Prevalence: Application To Malawi, Tomoki Fujii, Denis H. Y. Leung

Research Collection School Of Economics

To find lower and upper bounds of HIV prevalence in Malawi under mild and intuitive assumptions to assess the importance of the refusal issue in the estimation of HIV prevalence. Methods: We derive bounds based on the following two key assumptions: (i) Among those who have never taken an HIV test before, those who refuse to take an HIV test (hereafter “refusers”) have at least as much risk to be HIV positive as those who participate in the HIV test, and (ii) among the refusers, those who have a prior testing experience are at least as likely to be HIV …

Cambio Estructural En Las Fluctuaciones Cíclicas Del Producto Industrial. Las Economías Estatales Mexicanas En Relación A La Nacional, Vicente German-Soto

Vicente German-Soto

Teacher Quality At The High-School Level: The Importance Of Accounting For Tracks, C. Kirabo Jackson

C. Kirabo Jackson

Unlike in elementary school, high-school teacher effects may be confounded with both selection to tracks and unobserved track-level treatments. I document sizable confounding track effects, and show that traditional tests for the existence of teacher effects are likely biased. After accounting for these biases, high-school algebra and English teachers have much smaller test-score effects than found in previous studies. Moreover, unlike in elementary school, value-added estimates are weak predictors of teachers’ future performance. Results indicate that either (a) teachers are less influential in high school than in elementary school, or (b) test scores are a poor metric to measure teacher …

An Economic Analysis Of Housing Market Instability And Affordability In China, You Wang

Undergraduate Economic Review

Applying an intertemporal optimization model proposed by Aizenman and Marion (1991), this research quantifies instability in the Chinese housing market. Although the Chinese government established numerous real estate policies to ensure the stability of the housing market, the regression analyses indicate that housing policies had no significant impact on the stabilization of the Chinese housing market. Alternatively, macroeconomic factors are identified as significant explanatory variables to the instability of housing prices. In addition, this research computes the median multiple for major cities in China and provides an alternative means of investigating the abnormal housing price situation in China.

Promoting Renewable Energy Generation In The United States: The Debate Over Renewable Portfolio Standards, Joe Cerne

Economics Theses

Incentivizing renewable energy growth in the 21^st century is, and will continue to be, a highly debated topic. As of late, legislative initiatives have prompted the enactment of various renewable portfolio standards aimed at stimulating renewable energy growth. Using data regarding each state’s energy production, this paper finds that there is no significant change in renewable energy output following the initiation of a renewable portfolio standard. We conclude that renewable energy growth is virtually unaffected by renewable portfolio standards and as such, we agree with much of the literature implying other means are necessary in order to adequately shift …