Risk Analysis Commons^™

The Air Littoral: Another Look, Maximilian K. Bremer, Kelly A. Grieco

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Assessing threats to the air littoral, the airspace between ground forces and high-end fighters and bombers, requires a paradigm change in American military thinking about verticality. This article explores the consequences of domain convergence, specifically for the Army and Air Force’s different concepts of control. It will assist US military and policy practitioners in conceptualizing the air littoral and in thinking more vertically about the air and land domains and the challenges of domain convergence.

On “The Us Army And The Pacific: Challenges And Legacies”, Brian Mcallister Linn

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

This commentary responds to David M. Finkelstein’s article, “The US Army and the Pacific: Challenges and Legacies,” published in the Autumn 2020 issue of Parameters (vol. 50, no. 3).

Sino-Indian Border Disputes In An Era Of Strategic Expansions, Roman Muzalevsky

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

The June 2020 clash between the People’s Republic of China and India in the disputed Ladakh border area resulted from the strategic expansions of both powers. Like two bubbles expanding in a contained space, these expansions were bound to collide and cause friction. This article explains how the expansions precipitated the incident and might exacerbate border disputes in the future. In pondering implications, it recommends Washington pursue a Eurasia-focused policy embracing the disputed region.

Risk Management And Biases In How Drivers Respond To Nuisance Flooding, Saige Hill, Juita-Elena (Wie) Yusuf, Burton St. John Iii, Pragati Rawat, Carol Considine

School of Public Service Faculty Publications

Nuisance flooding, or recurrent flooding, occurs during high tide and may be exacerbated when combined with other events such as heavy precipitation, strong winds, or storm surge. Sea level rise has contributed to increased frequency and duration of nuisance flooding in low-lying coastal areas and is causing community-specific impacts such as transportation disruption, road closures, compromises to life and property, overwhelmed storm water systems, and infrastructure damage. This chapter focuses on how drivers respond during nuisance flooding events. Specifically, we discuss how drivers in the Hampton Roads region of southeastern coastal Virginia obtain information about road flooding, how they respond, …

A Methodology For Risk Assessment To Improve The Resilience And Sustainability Of Critical Infrastructure With Case Studies From The United States Army, R. Neil Blackwell, Aubrey Evans, Phoebe Lee, Christine Panlasigui, Duncan Russell, Ke'shaun Wells, Steve Mccarthy, Brad Mccoy, F. Todd Davidson

West Point Research Papers

Reliable performance of energy and water infrastructure is central to the mission readiness of the United States Army. These systems are vulnerable to coordinated attacks from an adversary as well as disruption from natural events. The objectives of this work were to investigate Army installations in North America, identify best practices for improving the resilience and sustainability of critical energy and water infrastructure, and develop a framework and methodology for analyzing the resilience of an installation under varying outage scenarios. This work was accomplished using a multi-layered decision process to identify unique case studies from the 117 active-duty domestic Army …

Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification (Cmmc) Compliance For Dod Contractors, Sierra Burnett

Cybersecurity Undergraduate Research

The DoD is currently taking a supply-chain risk management strategy to foster cybersecurity. This unique strategy is often referred to as CMMC which stands for “Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification”. The approach requires that all the 300,000 DoD contractors acquire third-party authentication that may attain the requirements for the CMMC maturity level suitable to the work they desire to do for the DoD. CMMC typically examines the organization's capability to safeguard Federal Contract Information as well as CUI. It integrates various cybersecurity standards already in place and plots the best practices alongside processes to five maturity levels that range from the …

Modeling Portfolios Of Low Carbon Energy Generation Under Deep Uncertainty, Franklyn Kanyako

Doctoral Dissertations

In the 2015 Paris Agreement, nearly every country pledge through the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) increased adoption of low carbon energy technologies in their energy system. However, allocating investments to different low carbon energy technologies under rising demand for energy and budget constraints, uncertain technical change in these technologies involves maneuvering significant uncertainties among experts, models, and decision-makers.

We examine the interactions of low carbon energy sources (LCES) under the condition of deep uncertainty. Deep uncertainty directly impacts the understanding of the role of low carbon energy technologies in climate change mitigation and how much R&D investment should be allocated …

Geological Origin As An Input Variable In Reliability-Based Designs: For An Accurate Exploration In Geotechnical Engineering, Juan Camilo Viviescas, Juan Pablo Osorio

Conference papers

Soil is one of the most difficult materials to characterize realistically, which partly explains the uncertainty between the designs and the geostructures real behavior. Different recommendations have arisen with respect to carrying out field investigations in order to reduce the uncertainties inherent to the soil. However, the field exploration and the implementation of sophisticated geotechnical models have proven to be insufficient to mitigate the geotechnical uncertainty. Therefore, Reliability-Based Designs (RBD) emerge as a decision-making tool through the definition of the probability of failure in conjunction with the typical Factors of Safety. RBD requires a previous understanding of the most appropriate …

Requirements Analysis And Architecture For An Operational Study Of Fatigue In Usaf Mobility Aircrew, Jonathan F. Mecham

Theses and Dissertations

Aircrew fatigue in flight operations is a known hazard that has driven the creation of fatigue-reducing regulation and fatigue risk management systems industry wide. In addition, biomathematical models have been created and tested to forecast the effectiveness of aircrew under conditions of time-zone shifts and long duty days. However, limited operational studies exist to validate these models or to help understand how individual factors can affect them. Operational studies have a variety of limitations that make gathering typical data regarding fatigue or sleep difficult. This research takes systems requirement analysis approach to design a study that measures effects of circadian …

Security And Privacy Analysis Of Wearable Health Device, Abm Kamrul Islam Riad

Symposium of Student Scholars

Wearable technology allows for consumers to record their healthcare data for either personal or clinical use via portable devices. As advancements in this technology continue to rise, the use of these devices has become more widespread. In this paper, we examine the significant security and privacy features of three health tracker devices: Fitbit, Jawbone and Google Glass. We also analyze the devices' strength and how the devices communicate via its Bluetooth pairing process with mobile devices. We explore possible malicious attacks through Bluetooth networking. The outcomes of this analysis illustrate how these devices allow third parties to access sensitive information, …

Patient Transport In The Time Of Covid-19: Using Health Care Failure Mode And Effect Analysis With Simulation To Test And Modify A Protocol, John Kwock, Jeffrey Holmes, Shelly Chipman, Erin Siebers, Angela Berry, Sonja Orff, Victoria Boutin, Leah Mallory

Journal of Maine Medical Center

Introduction: In March 2020, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, an interprofessional, interdisciplinary team at Maine Medical Center used Healthcare Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (HFMEA) and in situ simulation to rapidly identify and mitigate latent safety threats (LST) in patient transport protocols.

Methods: Following HFMEA steps, stakeholders representing a variety of disciplines assembled to address transport of patients with COVID-19. A process map was created to describe the process. With hazard analysis using table-top simulation followed by in situ simulation, we identified, categorized, and scored LSTs. Mitigation strategies were identified during structured debriefing.

Results: Fourteen LSTs were identified in …

Maritime Safety Supervision And Navigation Service Of Offshore Wind Farms In China, Zhimin Zhang

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.

Study On Risk Assessment Of Methanol Fueled Ship, Zhichao Chen

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.

Using Fsa Framework, Research On Maritime Safety Management Of The Highway Bridge Water Area On The Yalu River, Jing Han

Maritime Safety & Environment Management Dissertations (Dalian)

No abstract provided.

Rerearch On Impact Of Covid-19 On Chinese International Shipping Companies And Countermeasures Der The Promotion Of Government, Xiaoru Dong

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Assessing Risk At The National Strategic Level: Visualization Tools For Military Planners, Wade A. Germann, Heather S. Gregg

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

The reemergence of great power competition, conflict with near-peer competitor states below the level of armed conflict, and persisting threats from nonstate actors with transnational ambitions and global reach pose challenges for strategists planning, executing, and assessing military operations and strategy. Building on current visualization tools, two proposed models—the National Strategic Risk Abacus and the National Strategic Risk Radar Chart—address these challenges and better depict how the US military may inadvertently contribute to risk at the national strategic level.

The Battalion Commander Effect, Everett Spain, Gautam Mukunda, Archie Bates

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Statistical evidence suggests Army battalion commanders are significant determinants of the retention of their lieutenants—especially high-potential lieutenants. Further, this so-called Battalion Commander Effect should be included in brigadier general promotion board assessments and used to inform officer professional military education curricula.

The Evolution Of Hybrid Warfare: Implications For Strategy And The Military Profession, Ilmari Käihkö

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

The concept of hybrid war has evolved from operational-level use of military means and methods in war toward strategic-level use of nonmilitary means in a gray zone below the threshold of war. This article considers this evolution and its implications for strategy and the military profession by contrasting past and current use of the hybrid war concept and raising critical questions for policy and military practitioners.

Book Reviews, Usawc Press

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

No abstract provided.

Samuel Huntington, Professionalism, And Self-Policing In The Us Army Officer Corps, Brian Mcallister Linn

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Drawing on Samuel P. Huntington’s three phases of self-regulation used to determine if an occupation qualifies as a profession, this article focuses on the third phase of policing and removing those who fail to uphold the standards set forth in the first two phases. It reviews how the US Army implemented this phase following the Civil War through the post–Vietnam War years and the implications for the officer corps.