Risk Analysis Commons^™

Fico® Scores Through The Economic Cycle And Understanding Consumer Sensitivities To Economic Fluctuations, Gerald Fahner

SDSU Data Science Symposium

FICO® Scores assess default likelihood under “normal” conditions. Additional risk emanates from economic variability and manifests itself in changes to the score distribution as well as changes to the Odds-to-Score relationship. In this session we will examine credit bureau data from the Great Recession in the United States as compared to a stable economic period. We’ll share a framework that provides new and actionable insights into consumers’ sensitivities to such economic fluctuations such as:

• Application of counterfactual analysis, machine learning, and scorecards, to rank-order consumers’ sensitivities

• Consumer segmentation by economic sensitivities

• Sensitivity profiling reveals interesting differences between the most ...

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Project Insight: A Granular Approach To Enterprise Cybersecurity, Sunna Quazi, Adam Baca, Sam Darsche

SMU Data Science Review

In this paper, we disambiguate risky activity corporate users are propagating with their software in real time by creating an enterprise security visualization solution for system administrators. The current problem in this domain is the lag in cyber intelligence that inhibits preventative security measure execution. This is partially due to the overemphasis of network activity, which is a nonfinite dataset and is difficult to comprehensively ingest with analytics. We address these concerns by elaborating on the beta of a software called "Insight" created by Felix Security. The overall solution leverages endpoint data along with preexisting whitelist/blacklist designations to unambiguously ...

An Overview Of Smartwater Management System: Strategic Potential In Bangladesh, Muhammad Qumrul Hassan, Mir F. Karim, Nazrul I. Khandaker, Jowaher Raza

Publications and Research

Water loss management is becoming an increasingly important as supplies are stressed by population growth or water scarcity. A SmartWater system ensures optimum consumption and prediction of future water use. Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries due to global climate change considering its rapid urbanization, inequitable land use, low income and greater reliance on climate sensitive sectors, particularly agriculture. Agricultural lands used for cropping and livestock rearing are more susceptible to degradation than non-agricultural lands. Most farmers irrigate through flooding, losing up to 75% of water to evaporation and creating a substantial drawdown of much needed water for ...

The Challenges Of Geotechnical Exploration In Bangladesh For Sustainable Urban Development And Risk Reductions In Engineering Geology, Mir Fazul Karim, Nazrul I. Khandaker, Muhammad Qumrul Hasson, A.T.M. Shakhawat Hossain

Publications and Research

Bangladesh is a unique example of rapid urbanization where the urban population increased from 5 to 58 million in last four decades. Due to complex geology and active tectonic setting, the urban ground is impacted by fluvio-deltaic processes and regional seismicity. The densely populated cities of the country are facing risks from many natural hazards like floods, tidal surge, riverbank and coastal erosion, scour, landslides, soil collapse and foundation failures. Geologists anticipate severe seismic threats from yet-undefined tectonic structures and seek to determine their consequential geo-structural responses and conformance to the national building code. With rapid growth, demands on infrastructure ...

The Status Of Engineering Geology: Constraints On Infrastructure Development In Bangladesh, Mir Fazlul Karim, Muhammad Qumrul Hassan, Nazrul I. Khandaker, Masud Ahmed, Belal Ahmed Sayeed

Publications and Research

In recent years, megacity Dhaka is known to have one of the fastest urban population growths in Bangladesh. The population in Dhaka and other megacities has increased from 7 to 50 million during the last four decades. The rapid rate of urban population growth, along with the extreme paucity of real-estate for new infrastructure development or upgrading existing facilities, is already exacerbating the situation for the city planners and exerting tremendous pressure to come-up with viable solutions. Although practice of engineering geology, geotechnical exploration, and testing exists in Bangladesh; the system has still yet to adopt controlled quality standards with ...

Community Resilience Management : Reflections And Strategies From Corporate Sustainability, Jennifer Schneider, John Hummel, Joseph M. Rosenbeck 4756469, Sarah Dobie

Journal of Environmental Sustainability

Creating community resilience is a daunting task, both in scope and application, therefore it is useful to examine related efforts to inform our strategy. Sustainability, specifically corporate sustainability, has developed through similar challenges and provides insight into the possible trajectory of community resilience management. We find that both concepts reflect similar origins, developmental paths and merging goals at a scale that can be systematically managed. Therefore, we describe four strategies from corporate sustainability management that can be applied to community resilience 1) consider the community context while implementing an increasingly broad view of responsibility; 2) integrate and engage across constructs ...

Enhancing Trust In The Cryptocurrency Marketplace: A Reputation Scoring Approach, Dan Freeman, Tim Mcwilliams, Sudip Bhattacharyya, Craig Hall, Pablo Peillard

SMU Data Science Review

Trust is paramount for the effective operation of any monetary system. While the distributed architecture of blockchain technology on which cryptocurrencies operate has many benefits, the anonymity of users on the blockchain has provided criminal users an opportunity to hide both their identities and illicit activities. In this paper, we present a scoring mechanism for cryptocurrency users where the scores represent users’ trustworthiness as safe or risky transactors in the cryptocurrency community. In order to distinguish law-abiding users from potential threats in the Bitcoin marketplace, we analyze historical thefts to profile transactions, classify them into risky and non-risky categories using ...

Extra-Terrestrial Habitat Systems: Safety, Reliability, And Resilience, Jory C. Lyons Jr., Amin Maghareh, Audai Theinat, Shirley Dyke, Antonio Bobet

The Summer Undergraduate Research Fellowship (SURF) Symposium

Developing a resilient extra-terrestrial habitat with regards to long-term reliability and safety from hazards including radiation, meteorites, and quakes is necessary to ensure human survival during interplanetary exploration. The objective of this study is to examine conventional aerospace safety and reliability analysis techniques to investigate whether they are sufficient to achieve resilience in extra-terrestrial habitats. These results will be obtained to complete a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis of compiled techniques to design a sustainable habitat system. Failure modes, effects, and criticality analysis (FMECA) and probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) with their past applications will be assessed to provide ...

Robust Allocation Of Funds For Nonstructural Flood Risk Mitigation In Coastal Louisiana, Simón Gómez Sierra, David R. Johnson, Matthew P. Shisler, Zachariah T. Richardson

The Summer Undergraduate Research Fellowship (SURF) Symposium

Coastal Louisiana is a critical economic, ecological and cultural asset, acting as a major hub for waterborne commerce, fisheries, and the petrochemical industry, and also as one of the world’s unique wetlands. Unfortunately, this rich environment is in great danger from the threat of hurricanes and storm surge flooding. Direct economic losses are estimated to average $2.7 billion per year under current conditions, and this could increase to $12 billion a year, or more, within 50 years if nothing is done. To prevent this catastrophe, Louisiana has developed a Comprehensive Master Plan for a Sustainable Coast, which plans ...

Ndvi And Lst Extraction Of Modis Data Under A Gis Open Source Application - Rickettsia Study Case In Angola, Ana Cláudia Teodoro, Lia Duarte, Patrícia Barradas, T. L. Mateus, Zoraima Neto

Free and Open Source Software for Geospatial (FOSS4G) Conference Proceedings

Fevers of unknown origin can have different aetiologies. The overlapping symptomatology of rickettsial infection and other endemic diseases that cause fever leads to a misdiagnosis or under-diagnosis of spotted fever group of Rickettsia (SFGR).

To better understand the epidemiology of this vector-borne disease in Angola, a comprehensive seroprevalence study was conducted investigating the exposure to SFGR in a sample of 92 febrile, Malaria and Yellow Fever negative human plasma specimen, collected to the study of the national surveillance of febrile syndromes between 2016 and 2017, in Angola.

The seroprevalence of IgG antibodies against SFG Rickettsia in humans was calculated by ...

Impact Of Pavement Surface Condition On Roadway Departure Crash Risk In Iowa, Ahmad Alhasan, Inya Nlenanya, Omar G. Smadi, Cameron A. Mackenzie

Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering Publications

Safety performance is a crucial component of highway network performance evaluation. Besides their devastating impact on roadway users, traffic crashes lead to substantial economic losses on both personal and societal levels. Due to the complexity of crash events and the unique conditions in each country and state, empirical local calibration for the correlation between attributes of interest and the safety performance is always recommended. Limited studies have established a procedure to analyze the impact of pavement condition on traffic safety in a risk analysis scheme. This study presents a thorough analysis of some roadway departure crashes which occurred in Iowa ...

Next Generation Protocol: Innovating A Resilient Future, Andrew Steven Rudnick, Jamie Cannady, Joe Decesaro, Juan A. Ortiz Salazar

Materials Engineering

Conventional practices do not account for product life beyond end-of-sale – these practices are not sustainable. We have developed an end-of-life protocol that includes a metric that we call the Recovery Rating. The objectives of this Next Generation Protocol, beyond supporting the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals, are to encourage the production of goods designed for recovery and to promote the collaboration between consumers, the public, and the private sector to recover goods at their end-of-life. The Recovery Rating that we propose evaluates and quantifies recovery potential of products. The Recovery Rating, which is normed against embodied energy from the Cambridge ...

Identification System For Heart Valve Manufacturing, Nicholas Robert Jensen, Edgar Davis Nix, Judith Evelyn Gonzalez, Albert Austin Liddicoat

Mechanical Engineering

Abstract withheld due to NDA constraints

Team Joseph's Bike Trailer, Keely Thompson, Curtis Wathne, Ryan Meinhardt

Mechanical Engineering

This final design report shows the results of this senior project’s design process of creating a custom bike trailer for Team Joseph. As done in the Scope of Work, Preliminary Design report, and Critical Design report, current products, relevant technologies, and American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) standards are fully researched and benchmarked to aid in the design selection process. Customer requirements are looked at and developed into engineering specifications. A detailed design was created for CDR to show to Team Joseph, and manufacturing and testing plans were laid out. This final design report adds the final design ...

“Un Poder Transformador”. Creatividad Y Habilidades De Pensamiento Que Nutren La Experimentación De Nuevas Ideas Sustentables”, Vanesa Abadie A. Abadie

ICOT 18 - International Conference on Thinking - Cultivating Mindsets for Global Citizens

Si partimos de preguntas tales como: ¿Qué vale la pena enseñar?, ¿Cómo las habilidades de pensamiento promueven prácticas que conducen a la sostenibilidad ambiental y la revitalización?, ¿Cómo promovemos el desarrollo de habilidades de pensamiento que conduzcan al uso del conocimiento, la tecnología y la innovación para promover la sostenibilidad y la revitalización?

Como docentes debemos introducir desafíos en contextos adecuados para así generar en los alumnos nuevas ideas. Tanto la creatividad como el pensamiento crítico son procesos que se nutren con la experimentación de ideas. Ellas pueden surgir a través de una acción, un relato, una imagen, un tópico ...

High Consequence Scenarios For North Korean Atmospheric Nuclear Tests With Policy Recommendations For The U.S. Government, Thomas S. Popik, Jordan T. Kearns, George H. Baker Iii, Henry F. Cooper, William R. Harris

George H Baker

The government of North Korea has declared high-altitude EMP-capability to be a “strategic goal” and has also threatened an atmospheric test of a hydrogen bomb. Atmospheric nuclear tests have the potential to cripple satellites and the undersea cable networks critical to communication, and navigation necessary for trans-Pacific trade among the U.S., China, and other nations. When a nuclear warhead is detonated at high altitude, a series of electromagnetic pulses radiate downward within the line of sight of the blast. These pulses can disable equipment with miniature electronics and long conductors. Electric grid controls and transmission systems are especially vulnerable ...

Design Of A Distributed Real-Time E-Health Cyber Ecosystem With Collective Actions: Diagnosis, Dynamic Queueing, And Decision Making, Yanlin Zhou

Theses, Dissertations, and Student Research from Electrical & Computer Engineering

In this thesis, we develop a framework for E-health Cyber Ecosystems, and look into different involved actors. The three interested parties in the ecosystem including patients, doctors, and healthcare providers are discussed in 3 different phases. In Phase 1, machine-learning based modeling and simulation analysis is performed to remotely predict a patient's risk level of having heart diseases in real time. In Phase 2, an online dynamic queueing model is devised to pair doctors with patients having high risk levels (diagnosed in Phase 1) to confirm the risk, and provide help. In Phase 3, a decision making paradigm is ...

Developing A Risk Assessment Protocol To Quantify Distribution And Uptake Of Persistent Organic Pollutants In Glacial Outflows, Kimberley Rain Miner

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Pollutants released by industrialized nations between 1960 and 2004 have been transported northward through atmospheric processes and deposited into glaciated alpine ecosystems. Many of these chemicals retain their original structure and are absorbed into the biota thousands of miles away from where they were originally utilized. With a warming climate increasing the melt of alpine glaciers, these glaciers may be introducing growing amounts of toxins into the watershed. While studies have demonstrated the existence of resident pollutants within glaciated ecosystems, no one has developed a risk assessment to identify sources and quantity of risk posed by these compounds when released ...

Developing An Ergonomic Model And Automation Justification For Industrial Spraying Operations: A Case Study, Anthony Woods

Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

Industrial spraying tasks prove to be some of the most dull, dirty, and dangerous jobs in the modern day. Although it is a ripe area for automation, justification methods do not typically account for the potential improvements in the ergonomics of a task from automating it. In addition, there is a gap in the ergonomics literature in formal methodologies to comprehensively evaluate an industrial spraying task ergonomically, including all relevant musculoskeletal elements. This research focuses on first developing a formal, comprehensive methodology for ergonomically evaluating industrial spraying tasks and attaining a final classification of the ergonomic ranking of the task ...

Assessing Land Deformation And Sea Encroachment In The Nile Delta, Egypt, Esayas Gebremichael

Research and Creative Activities Poster Day

Persistent scatterer interferometric analyses were conducted on a stack of 84 Envisat ASAR scenes spanning 7 years (2004 to 2010) over the entire Nile Delta of Egypt and surroundings to monitor the ongoing spatial and temporal land deformation, identify the factors controlling the deformation, and model the interplay between sea level rise and land subsidence to identify areas and populations threatened by sea encroachment by the end of the 21st century. Findings include: (1) general patterns of subsidence in the northern delta, near-steady (none) subsidence in the southern delta, separated by a previously mapped flexure zone undergoing uplift; (2) high ...