Risk Analysis Commons^™

Characteristics Of Helicopter Accidents Involving Male And Female Pilots, Scott S. Burgess, Robert O. Walton, P. Michael Politano

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

Studies examining aviation accidents have not found differences in accident rates by gender, though there may be gender differences in the types of accident. Baker, Lamb, Grabowski, and Rebok (2001) examined fixed-wing aviation accident rates of male and female private pilots and found that males were more likely to have accidents related to inattention or poor planning while female pilots were more likely to have accidents due to mishandling the aircraft. This research analyzed the National Transportation Safety Board’s aviation accident database system to examine the severity of injury and aircraft damage in rotary-wing (helicopter) accidents by gender. The ...

Answering The Call For Scholarship: The Journal Of International Crisis And Risk Communication Research, Matthew W. Seeger

Journal of International Crisis and Risk Communication Research

Crisis events have the potential to create broad impacts across a variety of contexts and require multi-disciplinary approaches to understand the causes and consequences. Communication is instrumental to both the understanding and the management of risks and crises and needs to be systematically examined within these contexts. The Journal of International Crisis and Risk Communication Research is designed to be an outlet for multi-disciplinary inquiry of communication phenomena within a wide range of crises and risks using multiple methods and perspectives.

Subjectivity In Failure Mode Effects Analysis (Fmea) Severity Classification Within A Reliability Centered Maintenance (Rcm) Context, Marc Banghart, Kari Babski-Reeves, Linkan Bian, Lesley Strawderman

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

This research paper investigated subjectivity in the severity rating of failure modes within a risk analysis process. Although several risk analysis processes can be utilized, the study considered the application of Failure Modes Effects Analysis (FMEA) or Failure Modes Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) due to its common use within the Aerospace Industry. The study investigated both differences in severity selection given varying amounts of experience as well as any association between severity selection and the provided input information. The main goal of the research was to investigate the impact of data quality on severity selection and to identify factors ...

Ransomware Behavioural Analysis On Windows Platforms, Nikolai Hampton, Zubair A. Baig, Sherali Zeadally

ECU Publications Post 2013

Ransomware infections have grown exponentially during the recent past to cause major disruption in operations across a range of industries including the government. Through this research, we present an analysis of 14 strains of ransomware that infect Windows platforms, and we do a comparison of Windows Application Programming Interface (API) calls made through ransomware processes with baselines of normal operating system behaviour. The study identifies and reports salient features of ransomware as referred through the frequencies of API calls

Implementing The Heston Option Pricing Model In Object-Oriented Cython, Brandon Hardin

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports

The 1973 Black-Scholes model, a revolutionary option pricing formula whose price is 'relatively close to observed prices, makes an assumption that the volatility is constant and thus, deterministic. This causes some inefficiencies and patterns in the pricing of options due to the model providing evidence of the volatility smile' of the volatility. Many scholars have suggested that the volatility should be modelled by a stochastic process and the (1993) Heston Model is one of many proposed solutions to remedy this problem. The Heston Model allows for the 'smile' by defining the volatility as a stochastic process. This thesis considers a ...

Airport Security Investment Model, Joshua Daniel Bolton

Theses and Dissertations

In an increasingly mobile and diverse world, it is difficult to quantify the risk, or danger, associated with traveling. Airports have suffered greatly for being unable to define potential risks and protect against them. Intelligent adversary risk is a complicated high-level issue for many airports. Airports are targeted because of the large amount of people in a confined space and the social, economic, and psychological impact of terrorist attacks on the American people. In the months following September 11th, 2001, the airline industry in the United States lost $1.1 billion in revenue. The American people stayed grounded, for fear ...

Benchmarking Estonia's Cyber Security: An On-Ramping Methodology For Rapid Adoption And Implementation, Ernest Wong, Nan Porter, Mckinnon Hokanson, Bing Bing Xie

Research Papers

In April of 2007, Estonia fell victim to a series of distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks that crippled its government websites, email servers, media outlets, and banking system for nearly a month. Due to the devastating effects of these cyber attacks, Estonia took great efforts to strengthen its cyber security protocols. This research analyzes the reforms that Estonia has implemented in its domestic and foreign policies and attempts to determine if any of it systemic improvements can help to also bolster cyber security in the United States (US). The findings from this research are that Estonia’s policy reforms ...

Identification Of Reverse Engineering Candidates Utilizing Machine Learning And Aircraft Cannibalization Data, Marc Banghart

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

As military aircraft continue to remain in service and age, cannibalization of parts is increasing. Proactive identification of parts that are at high risk for cannibalization will inform engineering processes such as reverse engineering, thus allowing potentially reducing lead time to develop new parts. The research objective was to develop a causal structure that can be used for prediction of when cannibalization actions may occur. Bayesian networks allow encoding of causality between various descriptive features given a data set. The method utilized a tabu search algorithm, identified the underlying causal structure and the associated node probabilities. The method is then ...

Examining Accident Reports Involving Autonomous Vehicles In California, Francesca Favaro, Nazanin Nader, Sky Eurich, Michelle Tripp, Naresh Varadaraju

Faculty Publications

Autonomous Vehicle technology is quickly expanding its market and has found in Silicon Valley, California, a strong foothold for preliminary testing on public roads. In an effort to promote safety and transparency to consumers, the California Department of Motor Vehicles has mandated that reports of accidents involving autonomous vehicles be drafted and made available to the public. The present work shows an in-depth analysis of the accident reports filed by different manufacturers that are testing autonomous vehicles in California (testing data from September 2014 to March 2017). The data provides important information on autonomous vehicles accidents’ dynamics, related to the ...

Hispanic Maternal And Children's Perceptions Of Neighborhood Safety Related To Walking And Cycling, Norma Olvera, Dennis W. Smith, Chanam Lee, Jian Liu, Jay Lee, Stephanie Kellam, Jun-Hyun Kim

Jian Liu

This study examined neighborhood safety as perceived by children (mean age=10 years) and their mothers, and its association with children's physical activity. For all eight safety items examined, children perceived their environment as less dangerous than mothers (p<0.05). None of the multiple regression models predicting children's physical activity by safety perceptions were significant (p>0.10). The maternal perception model explained the highest percentage of variance (R2=0.26), compared to the children's perception model (R2=0.22). Findings suggest that future studies should explore relations between self-reported and objectively measured safety barriers to Hispanic youth walking and cycling.

A Review Focujsed On The Psychological Effectiveness Of Tai Chi On Different Populations, Long Zhang, Thomas Lowder, Jian Liu

Jian Liu

No abstract provided.

Examining Accident Reports Involving Autonomous Vehicles In California, Francesca M. Favaro, Nazanin Nader, Sky O. Eurich, Michelle Tripp, Naresh Varadaraju

Francesca M. Favarò

Aging Effect On Foot Dynamics During Unexpected Slips, Jian Liu, Thurmon E. Lockhart

Jian Liu

Slip-induced fall accidents have been recognized as a serious threat to the health of the elderly.The objective of the current study was to investigate the aging effect on the biomechanical reactions of both perturbed foot and unperturbed foot to the unexpected slips. Nineteen younger (mean age: 25.0 years old) and twenty-one older (mean age: 71.2 years old) adults were involved in a laboratory study,in which slippery surface was induced during walking without their awareness.The reactive responses of both slipping foot and unperturbed foot were quantified by optical motion capture system and force platforms.The results ...

A Systems-Based Framework For Design And Analysis Of An R And D Structure, Polinpapilinho F. Katina, Charles B. Keating, Luna M. Magpili

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

A critical challenge for managerial effectiveness and competitive advantage in research and development (R and D) organizations is developing an appropriate structural configuration. However, in finding an appropriate structural configuration, R and D managers are faced with unprecedented levels of uncertainty, ambiguity, and accelerating complexity, coupled with demands for increased productivity. This paper develops a systems-based framework to support rigorous design, analysis, and transformation of the structure for R and D organizations. The framework development includes: (1) a review of the literature for the nature and role of the structure in R and D management; (2) setting of the R ...

Processus De Décision Et Complexité: Le Feu De Yarnell Hill Du 30 Juin 2013 [Decision-Making Processes And Complexity: The Yarnell Hill Fire Of June 30th, 2013], Karim Hardy, Louise K. Comfort

Karim Hardy

Re-forming the information stream in decision processes after severe accidents allows scientists aRecréer les flux d’information au sein des processus de décision après une catastrophe permet aux chercheurs ainsi qu’aux décideurs d’identifier les points à partir desquels une action défaillante débute ainsi que les écarts dans les processus d’information qui pourraient être corrigés afin de réduire les futurs lors de futurs incidents. Le 30 juin 2013, le feu de Yarnell Hill en Arizona (Etats-Unis) évolue rapidement dans des conditions environnementale et managériale très difficiles menant à l’effondrement de la stratégie de lutte et à la ...

Development Of An Unmanned Aerial System For Radiation Mapping In Nuclear Facilities, Jackson Ball, Guangying Jiang, Robert Bean

The Summer Undergraduate Research Fellowship (SURF) Symposium

Efficiently planning a decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) operation at a nuclear facility requires detailed information on the conditions present. In the wake of a disaster, or just years of abandonment, a facility’s layout may have dramatically changed, making previous facility drawings unreliable, and radioactive particles may have been spread over the site, contaminating equipment and structures. Rather than tasking workers with mapping and characterizing the contamination, which can take days or weeks and poses a health and safety risk to the workers, mapping the site and locating contamination can be done remotely by an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV ...

Hazard Mitigation Through A Systemic Model Of Accident To A Socio-Technical System: A Case Study, Karim Hardy, Franck Guarnieri

Karim Hardy

This paper presents the STAMP (systems-theoretic accident modeling and processes) accident model, based on systems theory, and describes its application in the context of risk prevention related to the remediation of contaminated sediments. The implementation of the model is described, and results are presented both in methodological and technical terms. The goal of this article is to emphasize the need of new approaches to take into account hazards and accidents within socio-technical systems.

Decisions Management During Wildland Fires: Accidents Viewed As A Spatiotemporal Inadequacy, Karim Hardy

Karim Hardy

Extreme situations as wildland fires are a source of stress and pressure. In such events, decision-makers and incident commanders need to address a specific problem: how to manage time and resources to make meaningful decisions? Current models of accidents that exist to explain and manage catastrophes and disasters are inadequate and insufficient to deal with resources and time pressure due to uncertainty within a complex organization. Current incident response structures are incompetent and impotent to handle effectively a dynamic evolution of space and time in order to bring a situation back to stability adequately.

Modelling And Hazard Analysis For Contaminated Sediments Using Stamp Model, Karim Hardy, Franck Guarnieri

Karim Hardy

Processes for remediation (removal of pollution or contaminants) of contaminated sediments have been very efficient. These technologies, which are particularly complex, call for a comprehensive approach to risk analysis which characterises all threats (to humans, equipment, local residents, the environment, etc.) . The STAMP accident model (Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes) is an example of such a comprehensive approach, and it has been chosen to characterise the risks associated with Novosol (registered trademark), an innovative remediation process.

Modelling And Hazard Analysis For Contaminated Sediments Using Stamp Model And Stpa Tool, Karim Hardy, Franck Guarnieri

Karim Hardy

The goal of this article is dual: first, introducing a new model of accident named STAMP (systems-theoretic accident modeling and processes); then applying the model to an innovative process for the treatment of contaminated substances and the re-use of treated substances. This article is a demonstration for a need of a new tool to take into account hazards and safety within socio-technical systems.