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Copula Modelling Of Dependence In Multivariate Time Series, Michael S. Smith 2014 Melbourne Business School

Copula Modelling Of Dependence In Multivariate Time Series, Michael S. Smith

Michael Stanley Smith

Almost all existing nonlinear multivariate time series models remain linear, conditional on a point in time or latent regime. Here, an alternative is proposed, where nonlinear serial and cross-sectional dependence is captured by a copula model. The copula defines a multivariate time series on the unit cube. A drawable vine copula is employed, along with a factorization which allows the marginal and transitional densities of the time series to be expressed analytically. The factorization also provides for simple conditions under which the series is stationary and/or Markov, as well as being parsimonious. A parallel algorithm for computing the likelihood is …


Cyclical Downturn Or Structural Disease? The Decline Of The Italian Economy In The Last Twenty Years, Enrico Saltari, Giuseppe Ciccarone 2014 University of Rome La Sapienza. Italy

Cyclical Downturn Or Structural Disease? The Decline Of The Italian Economy In The Last Twenty Years, Enrico Saltari, Giuseppe Ciccarone

Enrico Saltari

Italy is experiencing at present the most serious economic recession of the post-war period. Between 2008 and 2013 national income fell by 9 per cent, per capita incomes by 11 per cent, and industrial production by 25 per cent; and unemployment doubled. In this essay we argue that, while this dramatic situation has been made worse by the policies of ‘expansive austerity’, its origins can be traced back to changes that took place in the 1990s (notably globalization, competition for emerging new markets and the diffusion of new technologies – ICT) to which Italy failed to react speedily or effectively …


Lessons From The U.S. Great Depression And The German Hyperinflation, Lester G. Telser 2014 University of Chicago

Lessons From The U.S. Great Depression And The German Hyperinflation, Lester G. Telser

Lester G Telser

Abstract. The German hyperinflation and the U.S. Great Depression have in common the effects of an insufficient amount of useful media of exchange. In Germany too much currency was printed and in the U.S. widespread bank failures undermined confidence in all demand deposits so all bank checks were regarded suspiciously. The effects were the same in both countries, very high rates of unemployment coupled with collapse of their economies. The German Hyperinflation gives evidence against the Phillips Curve. JEL E65 Study of Particular Policy Episodes


Non Profit Suppliers Of Higher Education: Corollaries, Lester G. Telser 2014 University of Chicago

Non Profit Suppliers Of Higher Education: Corollaries, Lester G. Telser

Lester G Telser

The American Association for the Advancement of Science bills Harvard University $26,675 for a one year subscription to their weekly publication Science. That anon profit suppliers of higher education is willing to pay such amounts far above the true incremental cost of supplying it with such publications is a corollary of the economic explanation of their behavior. Nonprofit Organizations JEL L30


Digital Storage In The Computer Age And The Irish Potato Famine, Lester G. Telser 2014 University of Chicago

Digital Storage In The Computer Age And The Irish Potato Famine, Lester G. Telser

Lester G Telser

This essay describes a model of evolution in a changing environment based on Markov chains. A diverse society is more likely to survive adverse changes than a more uniform society well adapted to the current environment. Diversity among the members of the society does not depend on chance. It results from their experience in a history of successful adaptations to challenging conditions. Even those less well adapted to present conditions can survive and revive facing adverse changes better than those adapted to what had been long lasting existing conditions. JEL O Economic Development, Technological Change and Growth


Assessing 'Green Energy Economy' Stimulus Packages: Evidence From The U.S. Programs Targeting Renewable Energy, L. Mundaca T., J. Luth-Richter 2014 Lund University

Assessing 'Green Energy Economy' Stimulus Packages: Evidence From The U.S. Programs Targeting Renewable Energy, L. Mundaca T., J. Luth-Richter

Luis Mundaca

The paper provides a comprehensive empirical assessment of American stimulus policies aimed at renewable energy (RE) technologies. We use an indicator-based methodology to assess progress with respect to energy, environmental and socio-economic issues resulting from RE stimulus programs linked to the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, and review and analyze the emerging but scattered literature. Overall, our results indicate that stimulus programs have had a positive effect on the RE sector. This is despite the fact that they were originally planned to work in combination with a greenhouse gas ‘cap-and-trade’ system, which has not been implemented. From the methodological perspective, …


Assessing The Effectiveness Of The ‘Green Economic Stimulus’ In South Korea: Evidence From The Energy Sector, L. Mundaca T., B. Damen 2014 Lund University

Assessing The Effectiveness Of The ‘Green Economic Stimulus’ In South Korea: Evidence From The Energy Sector, L. Mundaca T., B. Damen

Luis Mundaca

The purpose of this paper is to provide an ex-post evaluation of the effectiveness of the South Korean Green New Deal (GND) as an instrument to deliver both an economic recovery and improved environmental performance. We use the energy sector as the main scope for our analysis when measured against climate-related indicators (e.g. CO2 emissions, energy intensity, share of renewable energy in supply mix) adopted by the South Korean government as part of a broader commitment to green growth. The research involves complimentary methods to assess the economic and environmental effectiveness of the GND at the macro-level; including the so-called …


How Smart Are Electricity Users With ‘Smart Metering’? A Behavioural Economics Experiment, S. Bager, L. Mundaca T. 2014 Lund University

How Smart Are Electricity Users With ‘Smart Metering’? A Behavioural Economics Experiment, S. Bager, L. Mundaca T.

Luis Mundaca

The purpose of this paper is to examine how behavioural biases affect consumers’ response to energy-use information provided through smart meters (SM). We take insights from behavioural economics and carry out two real-life experiments with SMs and electricity users. The experiments were conducted in Copenhagen (Denmark) to identify and assess the potential of two economic behavioural biases, salience and loss aversion. The results of the first experiment (i.e. installation of SM without further intervention) generally aligned with electricity use reductions found in previous research, and indicate that it may be reasonable to expect a reduction in electricity use in the …


Beliefs, Institutions, And Learning: A New Order For The New Global Economy?, SUMRU G. ALTUG 2014 Koc University

Beliefs, Institutions, And Learning: A New Order For The New Global Economy?, Sumru G. Altug

SUMRU G ALTUG

No abstract provided.


Syllabus Inr 3061 (U01): Conflict, Security, And Peace In International Relations (Fall 2015), Lukas K. Danner 2014 Florida International University

Syllabus Inr 3061 (U01): Conflict, Security, And Peace In International Relations (Fall 2015), Lukas K. Danner

Dr. Lukas K. Danner

War and peace are two intermittent outcomes of the continuous and dynamic nature of social interactions in world politics. In turn, these social events are connected by social conflicts that may, or may not degenerate into a crisis situation and war. Thus, this course will explore the genesis of social conflicts, their possible resolution, or their ultimate degeneration into crisis and war. Since the conflict-crisis-war cycle is born out and nurtured during times of “peace,” we will focus on that tract of time in order to understand the nature of social conflicts, the evolution into crisis, and the conditions for …


Syllabus Inr 3703 (U05): International Political Economy (Fall 2015), Lukas K. Danner 2014 Florida International University

Syllabus Inr 3703 (U05): International Political Economy (Fall 2015), Lukas K. Danner

Dr. Lukas K. Danner

This course is designed to gives students the tools and knowledge with which to evaluate the interactions between politics and the global economy. First, students will learn how international political economy (IPE) is defined and the general newer history of global market governance. Students will learn about the different theoretical perspectives explaining international political economy. With this background knowledge different questions about the global interactions between politics and the market will be analyzed and evaluated. Students will also familiarize themselves with the general historical trends in international political economy. Application of the learned theoretical perspectives will follow in different topical …


Law In Regression? Impacts Of Quantitative Research On Law And Regulation, David C. Donald 2014 The Chinese University of Hong Kong

Law In Regression? Impacts Of Quantitative Research On Law And Regulation, David C. Donald

David C. Donald

Quantitative research (QR) has undeniably improved the quality of law- and rulemaking, but it can also present risks for these activities. On the one hand, replacing anecdotal assertions regarding behavior or the effects of rules in an area to be regulated with objective, statistical evidence has advanced the quality of regulatory discourse. On the other hand, because the construction of such evidence often depends on bringing the complex realities of both human behavior and rules designed to govern it into simple, quantified variables, QR findings can at times camouflage complexity, masking real problems. Deceptively objective findings can in this way …


A Model To Evaluate Vehicle Emission Incentive Policies In Japan, Don Fullerton, Li Gan, Miwa Hattori 2014 University of Texas at Austin

A Model To Evaluate Vehicle Emission Incentive Policies In Japan, Don Fullerton, Li Gan, Miwa Hattori

Don Fullerton

Using 3 years of data from the 47 prefectures of Japan, we estimate the behavior of households that simultaneously make discrete decisions about vehicle ownership and continuous decisions about driving distance. We use the estimated parameters to calculate elasticities and to simulate the effects of alternative pollution control policies such as taxes on gasoline, distance, or particular cars. Given choices about cars and distance, we also calculate emissions. Since we model simultaneous choices, both the chosen distance and the chosen car can be affected either by a tax on distance or by a tax on car characteristics. We find expected …


Working Paper, Kyle S. Herman 2014 Rutgers University - Newark

Working Paper, Kyle S. Herman

Dr. Kyle S. Herman

In this paper I trace the development of global environmental politics (GEP) over the past two decades within the context of the UNFCCC process from Rio 1992 until about Rio 2012. The UNFCCC process is by no means representative of the entire GEP field, but it does offer glimpses into the political processes embedded in global environmental policy-making and implementation. The GEP processes are embodied within a larger economic frame, mainly because the neoliberal thinking over the past several decades has dictated this, but for other reasons discussed in more detail below.


Role Of Intelligence Inputs In Defending Against Cyber Warfare And Cyber Terrorism, Aniruddha Bagchi 2014 Kennesaw State University

Role Of Intelligence Inputs In Defending Against Cyber Warfare And Cyber Terrorism, Aniruddha Bagchi

Aniruddha Bagchi

No abstract provided.


"Dual Agent Distortions In Real Estate Transactions", Ken Johnson, Zhenguo Lin, Jia Xie 2014 Florida International University

"Dual Agent Distortions In Real Estate Transactions", Ken Johnson, Zhenguo Lin, Jia Xie

Jia Xie

This paper investigates price distortions in dual agent real estate transactions. Consistent with the literature, we find that dual agent has a null effect on sale price. However, dual agent distortions on sale price emerge after controlling for the ownership of the property. We find that dual agent is associated with a 7.19 percent price premium on agent owned properties, but a 13.06 percent price discount on government owned properties and a 7.04 percent discount on bank owned properties. In addition, market conditions also play an important role in such price distortions.


It's All In The Mail: The Economic Geography Of The German Empire, Florian Ploeckl 2014 University of Adelaide

It's All In The Mail: The Economic Geography Of The German Empire, Florian Ploeckl

Florian Ploeckl

Information exchange is a necessary prerequisite for economic exchange over space. This relationship implies that information exchange data corresponds to the location of economic activity and therefore also of population. Building on this relationship we use postal data to analyse the spatial structure of the population distribution in the German Empire of 1871. In particular we utilize local volume data of a number of postal information transmission services and a New Economic Geography model to create two index measures, Information Intensity and Amenity. These variables respectively influence the two mechanisms behind the urban population distribution, namely agglomeration forces and location …


Free Economy! On 3628800 Alternatives Of And To Capitalism, Steffen Roth 2014 ESC Rennes School of Business

Free Economy! On 3628800 Alternatives Of And To Capitalism, Steffen Roth

Prof. Dr. Dr. Steffen Roth

Even the sharpest problem focus cannot help but sharpen the problem. Thus, the key to our understanding of alternatives to capitalism and alternative forms of capitalism is not in the ongoing problematization of the dominance of the economic principle. Rather, the question addressed in the present form theoretical argument is about which distinctions we need to draw in order to be able to observe capitalism. Answering this question, we show that the form capitalism can only be unfolded in the medium of functional differentiation. In resituating the economy as only one out of ten function systems, we demonstrate that both …


Innovation And Degrowth, Steffen Roth, Miguel Perez-Valls, Jari Kaivo-oja 2014 ESC Rennes School of Business

Innovation And Degrowth, Steffen Roth, Miguel Perez-Valls, Jari Kaivo-Oja

Prof. Dr. Dr. Steffen Roth

Innovation is essential for economic growth. The dominant view therefore is that innovation and human development are inseparable. However, ecological economists have argued that an insatiable appetite for the creative destruction leads to the self-destruction of humankind. The key component of the growth engine (Jackson, 2011), innovation, constantly renovates the iron cage of consumerism that eventually consumes the planet to excess (Urry, 2010), while popular attempts to link innovation and sustainability constantly fail to green the economy as they do not challenge the overall functionality of the growth engine (Schneider et al., 2010; van Griethuysen, 2010). Innovation is therefore considered …


Toward More General Hedonic Estimation: Clarifying The Roles Of Alternative Experimental Designs With An Application To A Housing Attribute, Michael D. Eriksen, Thomas Kniesner, Christopher Rohlfs, Ryan Sullivan 2014 University of Cincinnati - Main Campus

Toward More General Hedonic Estimation: Clarifying The Roles Of Alternative Experimental Designs With An Application To A Housing Attribute, Michael D. Eriksen, Thomas Kniesner, Christopher Rohlfs, Ryan Sullivan

Michael D Eriksen

Our research develops a more general hedonic model in which an exogenous shock to a single product attribute can affect other attributes, the markets for the product’s complements and substitutes, and aggregate quantity produced. The factors are shown to be empirically relevant and to cause bias in traditional approaches. Experimental estimators of attribute demand are introduced that address biases, are transparent, and are straightforward to implement. We apply one of the estimators developed to measure the marginal value placed by householders on subsidized carbon monoxide detectors.


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