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The Ideological Roots Of Institutional Change, Murat Iyigun, Jared Rubin 2017 University of Colorado

The Ideological Roots Of Institutional Change, Murat Iyigun, Jared Rubin

ESI Working Papers

Why do some societies fail to adopt more efficient institutions in response to changing economic conditions? And why do such conditions sometimes generate ideological backlashes and at other times lead to transformative sociopolitical movements? We propose an explanation that highlights the interplay--or lack thereof--between new technologies, ideologies, and institutions. When new technologies emerge, uncertainty results from a lack of understanding how the technology will fit with prevailing ideologies and institutions. This uncertainty discourages investment in institutions and the cultural capital necessary to take advantage of new technologies. Accordingly, increased uncertainty during times of rapid technological change may generate an ideological ...


The Cultural Transmission Of Trust Norms: Evidence From A Lab In The Field On A Natural Experiment, Jared Rubin, Elira Karaja 2017 Chapman University

The Cultural Transmission Of Trust Norms: Evidence From A Lab In The Field On A Natural Experiment, Jared Rubin, Elira Karaja

ESI Working Papers

We conduct trust games in three villages in a northeastern Romanian commune. From 1775-1919, these villages were arbitrarily assigned to opposite sides of the Habsburg and Ottoman/Russian border despite being located seven kilometers apart. Russian and Ottoman Öscal institutions were more rapacious than Habsburg institutions, which may have eroded trust of outsiders (relative to co-villagers). Our design permits us to rigorously test this conjecture, and more generally, whether historically institutionalized cultural norms are transmitted intergenerationally. We Önd that participants on the Ottoman/Russian side are indeed less likely to trust outsiders but more likely to trust co-villagers.


The Economic Legacies Of Lingering Colonialism: A Case Study In Identity And Multiculturalism In Northern Morocco And The Spanish Enclaves, Jeremy Vale 2017 SIT Study Abroad

The Economic Legacies Of Lingering Colonialism: A Case Study In Identity And Multiculturalism In Northern Morocco And The Spanish Enclaves, Jeremy Vale

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Founded in ancient times, the twin Spanish cities of Ceuta and Melilla combined comprise just 11.8 square miles and have fewer than 200,000 inhabitants. Despite their rather insignificant sizes, they are important because they serve as the only land borders between the European Union and the African continent, generating a host of complicated questions. This research explores the role of smuggling as a form of micro-economy and identity. Through interviews of Moroccans with ties to smuggling as well as interviews with residents of Ceuta, this case study begins to examine the role smuggling plays in the debates about ...


Luminate: Linking Agricultural Land Use, Local Water Quality And Gulf Of Mexico Hypoxia, Catherine L. Kling, Yiannis Panagopoulos, Sergey S. Rabotyagov, Adriana Valcu-Lisman, Philip W. Gassman, Todd D. Campbell, Michael J. White, Jeffrey G. Arnold, Raghavan Srinivasan, Manoj K. Jha, Jeffrey J. Richardson, L. Monika Moskal, R. Eugene Turner, Nancy N. Rabalais 2017 Iowa State University

Luminate: Linking Agricultural Land Use, Local Water Quality And Gulf Of Mexico Hypoxia, Catherine L. Kling, Yiannis Panagopoulos, Sergey S. Rabotyagov, Adriana Valcu-Lisman, Philip W. Gassman, Todd D. Campbell, Michael J. White, Jeffrey G. Arnold, Raghavan Srinivasan, Manoj K. Jha, Jeffrey J. Richardson, L. Monika Moskal, R. Eugene Turner, Nancy N. Rabalais

Catherine Kling

In this paper, we discuss the importance of developing integrated assessment models to support the design and implementation of policies to address water quality problems associated with agricultural pollution. We describe a new modelling system, LUMINATE, which links land use decisions made at the field scale in the Upper Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Basins through both environmental and hydrological components to downstream water quality effects and hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. This modelling system can be used to analyse detailed policy scenarios identifying the costs of the policies and their resulting benefits for improved local and regional water quality ...


The Expected Cost Of Housing Discrimination, Quinton Babcock 2017 Kent State University

The Expected Cost Of Housing Discrimination, Quinton Babcock

Undergraduate Research Symposium

The aim of this research is to increase the understanding regarding discrimination in the home rental market, especially in a way that is applicable to individuals, by constructing a framework with which its expected cost can be found. After estimating an expected cost, this research seeks to use that cost as a platform to explore conditions surrounding this expected cost. Furthermore, this research makes a case for why this should be an important issue among Disability Studies scholars and Disability Rights activists.

Starting with 1988 amendments to the Fair Housing Act, America has made a legal effort to secure fair ...


Deception And Reception: The Behavior Of Information Providers And Users, Roman M. Sheremeta, Timothy W. Shields 2017 Chapman University

Deception And Reception: The Behavior Of Information Providers And Users, Roman M. Sheremeta, Timothy W. Shields

ESI Working Papers

We investigate the behavior of information providers (underwriters) and users (investors) in a controlled laboratory experiment where underwriters have incentives to deceive and investors have incentives to avoid deception. Participants play simultaneously as underwriters and investors in one-shot information transmission games. The results of our experiment show a significant proportion of both deceptive and non-deceptive underwriters. Despite the presence of deceptive underwriters, investors are receptive to underwriters’ reports, gleaning information content, albeit overly optimistic. Within our sample, deception by underwriters and reception by investors are the most profitable strategies. Moreover, participants who send deceptive reports to investors, but at the ...


Monitoring Institutions In Indefinitely Repeated Games, Gabriele Camera, Marco Casari 2017 Chapman University

Monitoring Institutions In Indefinitely Repeated Games, Gabriele Camera, Marco Casari

ESI Working Papers

Does monitoring past conduct facilitate intertemporal cooperation? We designed an experiment characterized by strategic uncertainty and multiple equilibria where coordinating on the efficient outcome is a challenge. Participants, interacting anonymously in a group, could pay a cost either to obtain information about their counterparts, or to create a freely available public record of individual conduct. Both monitoring institutions were actively employed. However, groups were unable to attain higher levels of cooperation compared to a treatment without monitoring. Information about past conduct alone thus appears to be ineffective in overcoming coordination challenges.


Targeted Campaign Competition, Loyal Voters, And Supermajorities, Pierre C. Boyer, Kai A. Konrad, Brian Roberson 2017 Université Paris-Saclay

Targeted Campaign Competition, Loyal Voters, And Supermajorities, Pierre C. Boyer, Kai A. Konrad, Brian Roberson

ESI Working Papers

We consider campaign competition in which candidates compete for votes among a continuum of voters by engaging in persuasive efforts that are targetable. Each individual voter is persuaded by campaign effort and votes for the candidate who targets more persuasive effort to this voter. Each candidate chooses a level of total campaign effort and allocates their effort among the set of voters. We completely characterize equilibrium for the majoritarian objective game and compare that to the vote-share maximizing game. If the candidates are symmetric ex ante, both types of electoral competition dissipate the rents from once in expectation. However, the ...


The Paradox Of Power: Principal-Agent Problems And Fiscal Capacity In Absolutist Regimes, Debin Ma, Jared Rubin 2017 London School of Economics

The Paradox Of Power: Principal-Agent Problems And Fiscal Capacity In Absolutist Regimes, Debin Ma, Jared Rubin

ESI Working Papers

Tax extraction in Qing China was low relative to Western Europe. It is not obvious why: China was much more absolutist and had stronger rights over property and people. Why did the Chinese not convert their absolute power into revenue? We propose a model, supported by historical evidence, which suggests that i) the center could not ask its tax collecting agents to levy high taxes because it would incentivize agents to overtax the peasantry; ii) the center could not pay agents high wages in return for high taxes because the center had no mechanism to commit to refrain from confiscating ...


Producing Energy While Sequestering Carbon? The Relationship Between Biochar And Agricultural Productivity, Nathan Kauffman, Jerome Dumortier, Dermot J. Hayes, Robert C. Brown, David Laird 2017 Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas CIty

Producing Energy While Sequestering Carbon? The Relationship Between Biochar And Agricultural Productivity, Nathan Kauffman, Jerome Dumortier, Dermot J. Hayes, Robert C. Brown, David Laird

Dermot J. Hayes

A partial solution to problems associated with anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions could be the development and deployment of carbon-negative technologies, i.e., producing energy while reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. Biofuels have been considered a possibility but have faced limitations due to competition with food production and GHG emissions through indirect land-use change (ILUC). In this article, we show how emissions from ILUC can potentially be reduced by producing food and bioenergy from biochar amended soils. The possibility of yield improvements from biochar would reduce the land requirement for crop production and thus, lead to a reduction in emissions ...


Investing In The Presence Of Massive Flows, Terence C. Burnham, Harry Gakidis, Jeffrey Wurgler 2017 Chapman University

Investing In The Presence Of Massive Flows, Terence C. Burnham, Harry Gakidis, Jeffrey Wurgler

ESI Working Papers

Approximately $10 trillion is benchmarked to Morgan Stanley Capital International’s Developed, Emerging, Frontier, and standalone market indexes. Reclassifications from one index to another require thousands of investors to decide how to react. We study a comprehensive sample of past reclassifications to guide this decision. Reclassified markets’ prices substantially overshoot between the announcement and effective dates—prices fall when a market moves from an index with more benchmarked ownership to one with less, such from Emerging to Frontier, and vice-versa—but revert within a year. We identify alpha-maximizing responses to reclassifications for both tightly benchmarked and more flexible investors.


Nfl Betting: Is The Market Efficient?, Mathew Marino 2017 Skidmore College

Nfl Betting: Is The Market Efficient?, Mathew Marino

Economics Student Theses and Capstone Projects

The Purpose of this research paper is to analyze the NFL point spread and Over/Under betting market and determine if it follows the efficient market hypothesis. This research paper uses data from armchairanalysis.com for the 2000 NFL season through the 2015 NFL season including playoffs. I use OLS and probit regressions in order to determine NFL betting market efficiency for the point spread betting market and the Over/Under betting market. The results indicate, that as a whole, the NFL betting market appears to be efficient. However, there may be behavioral tendencies that can be taken advantage of ...


A Game-Level Analysis: How Does Trade Affect Team Performance In Nba?, Tianqi Li 2017 Skidmore College

A Game-Level Analysis: How Does Trade Affect Team Performance In Nba?, Tianqi Li

Economics Student Theses and Capstone Projects

Using game-level panel data on the National Basketball Association for 2015-2016 season, I examine the relationship between trade and team performance. In my study, trade is measured by a game-minute-adjusted salary dispersion. I construct a fixed effect model to analyze the effect of salary dispersion on team performance. The results show that salary dispersion is negatively related to team performance. To verify whether different team characteristics will affect this relationship, I categorize the teams into two groups twice based on their playoff likelihood and number of trades made. The results provide additional evidence that salary dispersion influence team performance negatively ...


Bubbles In Experimental Asset Markets, Praveen Kujal, Owen Powell 2017 Chapman University

Bubbles In Experimental Asset Markets, Praveen Kujal, Owen Powell

ESI Working Papers

"One can define a bubble as a persistent increase in the price of an asset over and above its fundamental value with an abrupt fall in prices when no buyers are available to make purchases. The occurrence of market bubbles has a long history, starting with the Dutch Tulip Mania (1624-1637) to the South Sea and Mississippi Bubble (1716-1720), the British Railway Mania (1840´s) to the crash of 1929. Recent events have been the crash of 1987, the dot-com bubble (1990s) to the most recent housing crisis in early 2000. Even though bubbles, and a subsequent crash, may reallocate ...


Humans’ (Incorrect) Distrust Of Reflective Decisions, Antonio Cabrales, Antonio M. Espín, Praveen Kujal, Stephen Rassenti 2017 University College London

Humans’ (Incorrect) Distrust Of Reflective Decisions, Antonio Cabrales, Antonio M. Espín, Praveen Kujal, Stephen Rassenti

ESI Working Papers

Recent experiments suggest that social behavior may be shaped by the time available for decision making. It is known that fast decision making relies more on intuition whereas slow decision making is affected by reflective processes. Little is known, however, about whether people correctly anticipate the effect of intuition vs. reflection on others’ decision making. This is important in everyday situations where anticipating others’ behavior is often essential. A good example of this is the extensively studied Trust Game where the trustor, by sending an amount of money to the trustee, runs the risk of being exploited by the trustee ...


Risk Preference, Time Preference, And Salience Perception, Jonathan Leland, Mark Schneider 2017 Chapman University

Risk Preference, Time Preference, And Salience Perception, Jonathan Leland, Mark Schneider

ESI Working Papers

A model of decision making is introduced that provides a unified approach for predicting choices under risk and over time. The model predicts systematic departures from expected utility and discounted utility using the same mathematical structure and the same psychological intuition and shows that a dozen diverse choice anomalies can be given a common underlying explanation. The model weights attribute differences both by their importance (consistent with expected utility and discounted utility) and by their salience or similarity (consistent with procedural models based on heuristics), and so provides a bridge between rational and heuristic representations of decision making.


Minimal Frames And Transparent Frames For Risk, Time, And Uncertainty, Jonathan Leland, Mark Schneider, Nathaniel Wilcox 2017 Chapman University

Minimal Frames And Transparent Frames For Risk, Time, And Uncertainty, Jonathan Leland, Mark Schneider, Nathaniel Wilcox

ESI Working Papers

It has been argued that behavior differs between transparent and nontransparent representations of a decision. However, the notion of a ‘transparent representation’ has not been precisely defined. We address this gap by providing formal definitions of ‘transparent frames’ for risk and time, establishing their uniqueness, presenting an approach to construct such frames, and comparing these framesto the ‘standard’ presentation format. Our typology of frames provides a logic for predicting systematic shifts in risk and time preferences as well as changes in the violation rates of rational choice theory. We conduct an experiment for choice under risk to investigate the framing ...


A Problematic Business Model: The Effect Of Private Prisons On Arrests, Claire Donnelly 2017 Claremont McKenna College

A Problematic Business Model: The Effect Of Private Prisons On Arrests, Claire Donnelly

CMC Senior Theses

Past work related to the private prison system has focused on direct comparisons between private and public facilities, including their respective quality, cost-effectiveness, and influence on recidivism. Using 2005 United States data compiled from a prison facility census, county census, and information on number of arrests by county, I examine the effect that the presence of private prisons has on the number of adult male arrests per county. Across four regression models, I initially find a significant effect of private prisons on arrests, but find that effect becomes insignificant once county and prison controls are accounted for. This suggests that ...


How Does Location Affect The Outcome Of Housing-Induced Poverty In China?, Dengli Yang 2017 University of Colorado, Boulder

How Does Location Affect The Outcome Of Housing-Induced Poverty In China?, Dengli Yang

Undergraduate Honors Theses

As Chinese economy booms, Chinese households are experiencing hiking housing prices and expenditures. As the result, the housing affordability issue is hotly discussed in China, especially in large and developed cities like Beijing and Shanghai where housing prices are increasing rapidly. This paper utilizes imputed rent instead of reported expenditures to determine the severity of housing-induced poverty in China. From the results, large cities in China are only experiencing comparatively moderate housing unaffordability problem. Hebei, Guangdong, and Guangxi have much higher percentages of housing-induced poor. Moreover, households in the Northeast and East also have higher likelihoods of encountering housing-induced poverty.


The Price Of A Pick: Examining The Efficiency Of The Nfl Draft Pick Market By Measuring The Elasticity Of The Relationship Between Draft Pick Value And Player Performance, Joseph Grisso 2017 University of Colorado, Boulder

The Price Of A Pick: Examining The Efficiency Of The Nfl Draft Pick Market By Measuring The Elasticity Of The Relationship Between Draft Pick Value And Player Performance, Joseph Grisso

Undergraduate Honors Theses

In the NFL Draft, teams take turns (known as “picks”) selecting (or “drafting”) college football players with the intention of drafting players that will perform well in the NFL and thus cause them to win more games. Since the pool of available college football talent is limited, players who are projected to have greater NFL performance are selected with earlier picks, causing the value of a draft pick to decrease as its number increases. With my research, I seek to determine a.) the relationship between the value of a particular pick in the draft (DPV) and the performance of the ...


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