Econometrics Commons^™

Comparative Effectiveness Research And Patient-Centered Outcomes Research In Public Health Settings: Design, Analysis And Funding Considerations, Glen Mays

Glen Mays

The principles and methods of CER and PCOR have developed primarily with therapeutics in mind, but they must also be applied to the study of public health programs, policies, and delivery systems. This session surveys the emerging field, and provides examples of CER/PCOR methods applied in public health settings using practice-based research networks (PBRNs).

How You Estimate The Yield Curve Matters!, Luiz Paulo Fichtner, Pedro Santa-Clara

Luiz Paulo Fichtner

We evaluate a two-factor Cox et al. (1985a,b) model using Euribor zero-coupon yields. We estimate this model using a state-space framework, where we sum a log-likelihood function of the state vector dynamics to a log-likelihood function of cross-section pricing errors. We introduce a likelihood-scaling weight in the joint log-likelihood function and show that there is a tradeoff in how one estimates a yield curve. Giving more weight to the cross-section of pricing errors improves the fitting and forecasting of Euribor yields, while giving more weight to the log-likelihood function of the state vector dynamics improves interest rate derivative pricing at …

Out-Of-Sample Predictability Of Bond Returns, Luiz Paulo Fichtner, Pedro Santa-Clara

Luiz Paulo Fichtner

We test the out-of-sample predictive power for one-year bond excess returns for a vari- ety of models that have been proposed in the literature. We find that these models perform well in sample, but have worse out-of-sample performance than the historical sample mean. We write the one-year excess return on a n-maturity bond at time t + 1 as the difference between n times the n-maturity bond yield at time t, and the sum of n − 1 times the (n − 1)-maturity bond yield at time t + 1 and the one-year bond yield at time t. Instead of …

Waste Dynamics, Country Heterogeneity And The European Environmental Policy Effectiveness, Massimiliano Mazzanti

Massimiliano Mazzanti

No abstract provided.

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — December 2012, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Singapore Inflation Expectations: Expecting The Unexpected, Aurobindo Ghosh, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

The study of inflation expectations of Singapore house-holds is a multi-disciplinary industry-relevant research that comes out of a partnership between Singapore Management University (SMU) and MasterCard. The research team for this MasterCard-SKBI Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) project applied rigorous methods using current internet-based marketing survey tools for data-collection and advanced econometric techniques to analyse the data. The updates from the quarterly waves are keenly followed by policymakers, market watchers and the media because of the enormous importance of cost of living to individuals and businesses alike.

Optimal Design Of P-Value Consistent Step-Up Procedures For Multiple Comparisons With A Control In Direction-Mixed Families, Koon Shing Kwong, Siu Hung Cheung

Research Collection School Of Economics

It is common in clinical studies for several treatments to be compared to a control. Most of the related statistical techniques have been developed to accommodate inferential families in which all hypotheses are either one- or two-sided such that the familywise error rate is controlled at a specified level. Several multiple testing procedures were recently proposed to perform multiple comparisons with a control in direction-mixed families that contain a mixture of one- and two-sided inferences. Of these procedures, the p-value consistent step-up procedure is found to be superior in terms of its power and p-value consistent property. In this paper, …

Data Acquisition Plan For The Public Health Multi-Network Practice And Outcome Variation (Mprove) Study, Glen Mays

Glen Mays

This brief details the steps to be followed in obtaining and compiling data on the core (and optional) measures of public health service delivery for the MPROVE study. MPROVE data will need to be obtained from several different sources. Data for some measures already exist in administrative records, surveillance systems, or other sources maintained by the local and state public health agencies that participate in your PBRN. For other measures, it may be necessary to obtain data from other agencies that collaborate with the public health agencies in your PBRN. In still other cases, it may be necessary to undertake …

The Economic Costs Of Tax Policy Uncertainty: Implications For Fundamental Tax Reform, Seth H. Giertz, Jacob Feldman

Department of Economics: Faculty Publications

The U.S. faces tremendous short-term policy uncertainty, including about $5.4 trillion in tax increases over the next decade. These changes are set to take effect on January 1, 2013. It is unlikely that these changes will fully materialize, but what will happen is anyone’s guess. Over the long term, uncertainty also looms large since the U.S. federal tax system is expected to bring in far less revenue than Congress is projected to spend. In this paper, we detail the tax policy uncertainty that the U.S. faces and the economic literature to assess how this uncertainty may be affecting the economy. …

Final Set Of Public Health Delivery Measures Selected For The Multi-Network Practice And Outcome Variation Examination (Mprove) Study, Glen Mays

Glen Mays

The Multi-Network Practice and Outcome Variation Examination Study (MPROVE) engages public health practice-based research networks (PBRNs) in the collection and analysis of measures of public health delivery across a large number of local practice settings in order to examine the causes and consequences of practice variation in public health. This document summarizes the final set of measures selected for the MPROVE study, including measures of the reach, volume, intensity, and quality of public health delivery in three domains of activity: chronic disease prevention, communicable disease control, and environmental health protection.

Online Appendix: Spatial Mobility And Environmental Effects On Obesity, Zhenxiang Zhao

Zhenxiang Zhao

No abstract provided.

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — November 2012, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Dinámica Del Consumo De Gasolina En Ciudad Juárez: 2001 - 2009, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Gabriel Múnoz Sapien, Martha Patricia Barraza De Anda, Lisbeily Domínguez Ruvalcaba

Border Region Modeling Project

This research analyzes short-run gasoline consumption dynamics in Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, México. Parameter estimation is carried out using linear transfer function ARIMA analysis. This market is of interest because it is influenced by regional, national, and international economic conditions due to its location on the border with the United States. Explanatory variables that satisfy the significance criterion include the real price of gasoline in Ciudad Juárez, the price of gasoline in Ciudad Juárez relative to that charged across the border in El Paso, Texas, USA, and formal sector employment in Ciudad Juárez. Sample data are for January 2001 to December …

Obtaining Critical Values For Test Of Markov Regime Switching, Douglas G. Steigerwald, Valerie Bostwick

Douglas G. Steigerwald

For Markov regime-switching models, testing for the possible presence of more than one regime requires the use of a non-standard test statistic. Carter and Steigerwald (forthcoming, Journal of Econometric Methods) derive in detail the analytic steps needed to implement the test ofMarkov regime-switching proposed by Cho and White (2007, Econometrica). We summarize the implementation steps and address the computational issues that arise. A new command to compute regime-switching critical values, rscv, is introduced and presented in the context of empirical research.

Public Health Return-On-Investment Template - Demonstration Version, Glen Mays

Glen Mays

The Public Health Return on Investment (ROI) Template is designed to help public health organizations estimate the economic returns from investments made in strategies that enhance public health service delivery, including quality improvement (QI) interventions. Depending on data availability, the template can be used to support retrospective analyses of actual investments as well as prospective analyses of potential future investments. The tool is designed to analyze economic returns realized through one ore more of the following pathways: (1) Reductions in routine operating costs; (2) Increases in revenue streams; (3) Increases in the outputs produced through agency services/functions; (4) Reductions in …

Estimating Scale And Scope Effects In Public Health Delivery: Implications For Regionalization, Glen P. Mays, Rachel A. Hogg, Rick Ingram, Kristina Rabarison

Glen Mays

OBJECTIVES: The nation's public health delivery system comprises nearly 3000 local public health agencies that vary widely in capabilities. Economic pressures, workforce shortages, and new national accreditation standards are leading these agencies to explore mechanisms for pooling resources to enhance delivery and improve population health. METHODS: A longitudinal cohort design is used to analyze changes in the availability and perceived effectiveness of services delivered by local public health providers. A stratified random sample of the nation's 3000 local public health agencies (n=497) were surveyed in 1998 and again in 2006 and 2011 (70% response) to measure the availability of 20 …

Estimating Scale And Scope Effects In Public Health Delivery: Implications For Regionalization, Glen P. Mays, Rachel A. Hogg, Rick Ingram, Kristina Rabarison

Health Management and Policy Presentations

OBJECTIVES: The nation's public health delivery system comprises nearly 3000 local public health agencies that vary widely in capabilities. Economic pressures, workforce shortages, and new national accreditation standards are leading these agencies to explore mechanisms for pooling resources to enhance delivery and improve population health.

METHODS: A longitudinal cohort design is used to analyze changes in the availability and perceived effectiveness of services delivered by local public health providers. A stratified random sample of the nation's 3000 local public health agencies (n=497) were surveyed in 1998 and again in 2006 and 2011 (70% response) to measure the availability of 20 …

Volatility, Duration, And Value-At-Risk, Pujun Liu

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

The thesis consists of three essays dealing with the modeling of volatility in financial markets, trade durations, and Value-at-Risk (VaR). The first essay models nonlinearities in the return series to estimate time-varying volatility by incorporating both regime changes and jumps. Two types of regime-switching GARCH-jump models with autoregressive jump intensity are presented. The first model follows the traditional Markov regime-switching model proposed in Hamilton (1989). As the unknown regimes in the Markov model lead to difficulty in forecasting, a threshold GARCH-jump model, in which regimes are known after observing the threshold variable in the previous period, is also proposed. The …

Return Predictability In International Financial Markets And The Role Of Investor Sentiment, Anjeza Kadilli

Anjeza Kadilli

We investigate the predictability of stock returns in the financial market for a large panel of developed countries using investor sentiment, business-cycle variables and financial indicators within two panel regime-switching models, with threshold and smooth transition between regimes. We find strong evidence of predictability of long-term returns following the business cycles, but much weaker results for the short-run returns. During crisis times, investor sentiment and inflation become key factors in predicting stock returns. Different tests and goodness of fit measures point out that the use of regime-switching models is more appropriate than linear models. To our knowledge, this study is …

Public Policy Special Edition On Local Government, Michael Kortt, Bligh Grant, Brian Dollery

Bligh Grant

No abstract provided.