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The Explicit Form Of Expectation Propagation For A Simple Statistical Model, Matt Wand, Andy Sang Il Kim, Andy Sang Il Kim, Matt Wand 2016 University of Technology, Sydney

The Explicit Form Of Expectation Propagation For A Simple Statistical Model, Matt Wand, Andy Sang Il Kim, Andy Sang Il Kim, Matt Wand

Matt Wand

We derive the explicit form of expectation propagation for approximate deterministic Bayesian inference in a simple statistical model. The model corresponds to a random sample from the Normal distribution. The explicit forms, and their derivation, allow a deeper understanding of the issues and challenges involved in practical implementation of expectation propagation for statistical analyses. No auxiliary approximations are used: we follow the expectation propagation prescription exactly. A simulation study shows expectation propagation to be more accurate than mean field variational Bayes for larger sample sizes, but at the cost of considerably more algebraic and computational effort.


Pension Building, Washington Dc, E Laura Golberg 2016 Claremont Colleges

Pension Building, Washington Dc, E Laura Golberg

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

No abstract provided.


A Meeting Of Minds: An Alternate Humor For Teaching Mathematics To Non-Stem Majors, Paul H. Grawe 2016 Winona State University and Institute for Travesty, Comedy, and Humor Studies

A Meeting Of Minds: An Alternate Humor For Teaching Mathematics To Non-Stem Majors, Paul H. Grawe

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

John Allen Paulos argued essentially for three forms of humor dear to mathematics: Incongruity, Gotcha, and Word Play. Unfortunately, these three are often combative forms and easily drive non-STEM majors out of mathematics and statistics.

William Dunham in The Mathematical Universe shows how a fine mathematician can use humor to draw non-specialists in. Central to Dunham’s success is his use of Sympathetic Pain humor, which creates softer synthetic Reconciler, Consoler, or Bridgebuilder humor styles.


Accounting For Interactions And Complex Inter-Subject Dependency In Estimating Treatment Effect In Cluster Randomized Trials With Missing Outcomes, Melanie Prague, Rui Wang, Alisa Stephens, Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen, Victor DeGruttola 2016 Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health

Accounting For Interactions And Complex Inter-Subject Dependency In Estimating Treatment Effect In Cluster Randomized Trials With Missing Outcomes, Melanie Prague, Rui Wang, Alisa Stephens, Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen, Victor Degruttola

Harvard University Biostatistics Working Paper Series

No abstract provided.


Models For Hsv Shedding Must Account For Two Levels Of Overdispersion, Amalia Magaret 2016 University of Washington - Seattle Campus

Models For Hsv Shedding Must Account For Two Levels Of Overdispersion, Amalia Magaret

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

We have frequently implemented crossover studies to evaluate new therapeutic interventions for genital herpes simplex virus infection. The outcome measured to assess the efficacy of interventions on herpes disease severity is the viral shedding rate, defined as the frequency of detection of HSV on the genital skin and mucosa. We performed a simulation study to ascertain whether our standard model, which we have used previously, was appropriately considering all the necessary features of the shedding data to provide correct inference. We simulated shedding data under our standard, validated assumptions and assessed the ability of 5 different models to reproduce the ...


Open Access!: Review Of Online Statistics: An Interactive Multimedia Course Of Study By David Lane, Samuel L. Tunstall 2016 Michigan State University

Open Access!: Review Of Online Statistics: An Interactive Multimedia Course Of Study By David Lane, Samuel L. Tunstall

Numeracy

David M. Lane (project leader). Online Statistics Education: An Interactive Multimedia Course of Study (http://onlinestatbook.com/)
Also: David M. Lane (primary author and editor), with David Scott, Mikki Hebl, Rudy Guerra, Dan Osherson, and Heidi Zimmer. Introduction to Statistics. Online edition (http://onlinestatbook.com/Online_Statistics_Education.pdf), 694 pp.

It is rare that students receive high-quality textbooks for free, but David Lane's Online Statistics: An Interactive Multimedia Course of Study permits precisely that. This review gives an overview of the many features in Lane's online textbook, including the Java Applets, the textbook itself, and the resources available for ...


Infographics As Eye Candy: Review Of World War Ii In Numbers: An Infographic Guide To The Conflict, Its Conduct, And Its Casualties By Peter Doyle (2013), Joel Best 2016 University of Delaware

Infographics As Eye Candy: Review Of World War Ii In Numbers: An Infographic Guide To The Conflict, Its Conduct, And Its Casualties By Peter Doyle (2013), Joel Best

Numeracy

Peter Doyle. World War II in Numbers: An Infographic Guide to the Conflict, Its Conduct, and Its Casualties, illustrated by Lindsey Johns (Buffalo NY: Firefly Books, 2013). 224 pp. ISBN: 177085195X.

Doyle’s book contains dozens of graphs of statistical data dealing with World War II. Many of these graphs are visually striking. However, they often violate fundamental graphing principles, in that they distort quantitative relationships, use unidentified scales, and often make it difficult to compare quantities. Graphic software makes it easy to create imaginative images, but these can fail to communicate the very information that is the graph’s ...


Improving Hiv Surveillance Data For Public Health Action In Washington, Dc: A Novel Multiorganizational Data-Sharing Method, Joanne Ocampo, J. C. Smart, Adam Allston, Reshma Bhattacharjee, Sahithi Boggavarapu, Amanda D. Castel, +13 additional authors 2016 George Washington University

Improving Hiv Surveillance Data For Public Health Action In Washington, Dc: A Novel Multiorganizational Data-Sharing Method, Joanne Ocampo, J. C. Smart, Adam Allston, Reshma Bhattacharjee, Sahithi Boggavarapu, Amanda D. Castel, +13 Additional Authors

GW Biostatistics Center Faculty Publications

Background: The National HIV/AIDS Strategy calls for active surveillance programs for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) to more accurately measure access to and retention in care across the HIV care continuum for persons living with HIV within their jurisdictions and to identify persons who may need public health services. However, traditional public health surveillance methods face substantial technological and privacy-related barriers to data sharing.

Objective: This study developed a novel data-sharing approach to improve the timeliness and quality of HIV surveillance data in three jurisdictions where persons may often travel across the borders of the District of Columbia, Maryland, and ...


Space-Time Modelling Of Emerging Infectious Diseases: Assessing Leptospirosis Risk In Sri Lanka, Cameron C F Plouffe 2016 Wilfrid Laurier University

Space-Time Modelling Of Emerging Infectious Diseases: Assessing Leptospirosis Risk In Sri Lanka, Cameron C F Plouffe

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

In this research, models were developed to analyze leptospirosis incidence in Sri Lanka and its relation to rainfall. Before any leptospirosis risk models were developed, rainfall data were evaluated from an agro-ecological monitoring network for producing maps of total monthly rainfall in Sri Lanka. Four spatial interpolation techniques were compared: inverse distance weighting, thin-plate splines, ordinary kriging, and Bayesian kriging. Error metrics were used to validate interpolations against independent data. Satellite data were used to assess the spatial pattern of rainfall. Results indicated that Bayesian kriging and splines performed best in low and high rainfall, respectively. Rainfall maps generated from ...


Empirical Likelihood And Differentiable Functionals, Zhiyuan Shen 2016 University of Kentucky

Empirical Likelihood And Differentiable Functionals, Zhiyuan Shen

Theses and Dissertations--Statistics

Empirical likelihood (EL) is a recently developed nonparametric method of statistical inference. It has been shown by Owen (1988,1990) and many others that empirical likelihood ratio (ELR) method can be used to produce nice confidence intervals or regions. Owen (1988) shows that -2logELR converges to a chi-square distribution with one degree of freedom subject to a linear statistical functional in terms of distribution functions. However, a generalization of Owen's result to the right censored data setting is difficult since no explicit maximization can be obtained under constraint in terms of distribution functions. Pan and Zhou (2002), instead ...


Identifying Stationary Series In Panels: A Monte Carlo Evaluation Of Sequential Panel Selection Methods, Mauro Costantini, Claudio Lupi 2015

Identifying Stationary Series In Panels: A Monte Carlo Evaluation Of Sequential Panel Selection Methods, Mauro Costantini, Claudio Lupi

Claudio Lupi

Sequential panel selection methods (spsms — procedures that sequentially use conventional panel unit root tests to identify I(0)I(0) time series in panels) are increasingly used in the empirical literature. We check the reliability of spsms by using Monte Carlo simulations based on generating directly the individual asymptotic p values to be combined into the panel unit root tests, in this way isolating the classification abilities of the procedures from the small sample properties of the underlying univariate unit root tests. The simulations consider both independent and cross-dependent individual test statistics. Results suggest that spsms may offer advantages over ...


Semi-Parametric Estimation And Inference For The Mean Outcome Of The Single Time-Point Intervention In A Causally Connected Population, Oleg Sofrygin, Mark J. van der Laan 2015 Division of Biostatistics, University of California - Berkeley

Semi-Parametric Estimation And Inference For The Mean Outcome Of The Single Time-Point Intervention In A Causally Connected Population, Oleg Sofrygin, Mark J. Van Der Laan

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

We study the framework for semi-parametric estimation and statistical inference for the sample average treatment-specific mean effects in observational settings where data are collected on a single network of connected units (e.g., in the presence of interference or spillover). Despite recent advances, many of the current statistical methods rely on estimation techniques that assume a particular parametric model for the outcome, even though some of the most important statistical assumptions required by these models are most likely violated in the observational network settings, often resulting in invalid and anti-conservative statistical inference. In this manuscript, we rely on the recent ...


Statistical Estimation Of White Matter Microstructure From Conventional Mri, Leah Suttner, Amanda Mejia, Blake Dewey, Pascal Sati, Daniel S. Reich, Russell T. Shinohara 2015 Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania

Statistical Estimation Of White Matter Microstructure From Conventional Mri, Leah Suttner, Amanda Mejia, Blake Dewey, Pascal Sati, Daniel S. Reich, Russell T. Shinohara

UPenn Biostatistics Working Papers

Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) has become the predominant modality for studying white matter integrity in multiple sclerosis (MS) and other neurological disorders. Unfortunately, the use of DTI-based biomarkers in large multi-center studies is hindered by systematic biases that confound the study of disease-related changes. Furthermore, the site-to-site variability in multi-center studies is significantly higher for DTI than that for conventional MRI-based markers. In our study, we apply the Quantitative MR Estimation Employing Normalization (QuEEN) model to estimate the four DTI measures: MD, FA, RD, and AD. QuEEN uses a voxel-wise generalized additive regression model to relate the normalized intensities of ...


Pglr-Errata-Comments-14dec2015, Joseph M. Hilbe 2015 Arizona State University

Pglr-Errata-Comments-14dec2015, Joseph M. Hilbe

Joseph M Hilbe

Updated Errata, changes and comments for Practical Guide to Logistic Regression (Hilbe, 2015)


A Generally Efficient Targeted Minimum Loss Based Estimator, Mark J. van der Laan 2015 University of California, Berkeley, Division of Biostatistics

A Generally Efficient Targeted Minimum Loss Based Estimator, Mark J. Van Der Laan

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Suppose we observe n independent and identically distributed observations of a finite dimensional bounded random variable. This article is concerned with the construction of an efficient targeted minimum loss-based estimator (TMLE) of a pathwise differentiable target parameter based on a realistic statistical model.

The canonical gradient of the target parameter at a particular data distribution will depend on the data distribution through an infinite dimensional nuisance parameter which can be defined as the minimizer of the expectation of a loss function (e.g., log-likelihood loss). For many models and target parameters the nuisance parameter can be split up in two ...


A Statistical Model For The Prediction Of Dissolved Oxygen Dynamics And The Potential For Hypoxia In The Mississippi Sound And Bight, Andreas Moshogianis 2015 University of Southern Mississippi

A Statistical Model For The Prediction Of Dissolved Oxygen Dynamics And The Potential For Hypoxia In The Mississippi Sound And Bight, Andreas Moshogianis

Master's Theses

Hypoxia events occur when dissolved oxygen concentrations fall below the minimum threshold (dissolved oxygen concentrations < 2 mg O2 L-1) necessary to avoid respiratory distress among aquatic organisms. In the Mississippi Sound and Bight, hypoxia is most prevalent from late-spring through late summer. Since hypoxia events can have dramatic effects on coastal fisheries, the spatial and temporal magnitude of hypoxia presents a clear threat to the productive fisheries in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Long-term hydrographic data were collected from eight sampling stations on a monthly basis from January 2009 to December 2011 along a cross-shelf transect from the mouth of Bay ...


Macrobenthic Communities In The Northern Gulf Of Mexico Hypoxic Zone: Testing The Pearson-Rosenberg Model, Shivakumar Shivarudrappa 2015 The University of Southern Mississippi

Macrobenthic Communities In The Northern Gulf Of Mexico Hypoxic Zone: Testing The Pearson-Rosenberg Model, Shivakumar Shivarudrappa

Dissertations

The Pearson and Rosenberg (P-R) conceptual model of macrobenthic succession was used to assess the impact of hypoxia (dissolved oxygen [DO] ≤ 2 mg/L) on the macrobenthic community on the continental shelf of northern Gulf of Mexico for the first time. The model uses a stress-response relationship between environmental parameters and the macrobenthic community to determine the ecological condition of the benthic habitat. The ecological significance of dissolved oxygen in a benthic habitat is well understood. In addition, the annual recurrence of bottom-water hypoxia on the Louisiana/Texas shelf during summer months is well documented.

The P-R model illustrates the ...


Recent Advances In Accumulating Priority Queues, Na Li 2015 The University of Western Ontario

Recent Advances In Accumulating Priority Queues, Na Li

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

This thesis extends the theory underlying the Accumulating Priority Queue (APQ) in three directions. In the first, we present a multi-class multi-server accumulating priority queue with Poisson arrivals and heterogeneous services. The waiting time distributions for different classes have been derived. A conservation law for systems with heterogeneous servers has been studied. We also investigate an optimization problem to find the optimal level of heterogeneity in the multi-server system. Numerical investigations through simulation are carried out to validate the model.

We next focus on a queueing system with Poisson arrivals, generally distributed service times and nonlinear priority accumulation functions. We ...


Inequality In Treatment Benefits: Can We Determine If A New Treatment Benefits The Many Or The Few?, Emily Huang, Ethan Fang, Daniel Hanley, Michael Rosenblum 2015 Johns Hopkins University, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Department of Biostatistics

Inequality In Treatment Benefits: Can We Determine If A New Treatment Benefits The Many Or The Few?, Emily Huang, Ethan Fang, Daniel Hanley, Michael Rosenblum

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

The primary analysis in many randomized controlled trials focuses on the average treatment effect and does not address whether treatment benefits are widespread or limited to a select few. This problem affects many disease areas, since it stems from how randomized trials, often the gold standard for evaluating treatments, are designed and analyzed. Our goal is to learn about the fraction who benefit from a treatment, based on randomized trial data. We consider the case where the outcome is ordinal, with binary outcomes as a special case. In general, the fraction who benefit is a non-identifiable parameter, and the best ...


Predicting Intraday Financial Market Dynamics Using Takens' Vectors; Incorporating Causality Testing And Machine Learning Techniques, Abubakar-Sadiq Bouda Abdulai 2015 East Tennessee State University

Predicting Intraday Financial Market Dynamics Using Takens' Vectors; Incorporating Causality Testing And Machine Learning Techniques, Abubakar-Sadiq Bouda Abdulai

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Traditional approaches to predicting financial market dynamics tend to be linear and stationary, whereas financial time series data is increasingly nonlinear and non-stationary. Lately, advances in dynamical systems theory have enabled the extraction of complex dynamics from time series data. These developments include theory of time delay embedding and phase space reconstruction of dynamical systems from a scalar time series. In this thesis, a time delay embedding approach for predicting intraday stock or stock index movement is developed. The approach combines methods of nonlinear time series analysis with those of causality testing, theory of dynamical systems and machine learning (artificial ...


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