Predicting The Next Us President By Simulating The Electoral College, 2018 New York City College of Technology, CUNY

#### Predicting The Next Us President By Simulating The Electoral College, Boyan Kostadinov

*Journal of Humanistic Mathematics*

We develop a simulation model for predicting the outcome of the US Presidential election based on simulating the distribution of the Electoral College. The simulation model has two parts: (a) estimating the probabilities for a given candidate to win each state and DC, based on state polls, and (b) estimating the probability that a given candidate will win at least 270 electoral votes, and thus win the White House. All simulations are coded using the high-level, open-source programming language R. One of the goals of this paper is to promote computational thinking in any STEM field by illustrating how probabilistic ...

Some Applications Of Sophisticated Mathematics To Randomized Computing, 2018 Selected Works

#### Some Applications Of Sophisticated Mathematics To Randomized Computing, Ronald I. Greenberg

*Ronald Greenberg*

No abstract provided.

Educational Magic Tricks Based On Error-Detection Schemes, 2018 Loyola University Chicago

#### Educational Magic Tricks Based On Error-Detection Schemes, Ronald I. Greenberg

*Ronald Greenberg*

Magic tricks based on computer science concepts help grab student attention and can motivate them to delve more deeply. Error detection ideas long used by computer scientists provide a rich basis for working magic; probably the most well known trick of this type is one included in the CS Unplugged activities. This paper shows that much more powerful variations of the trick can be performed, some in an unplugged environment and some with computer assistance. Some of the tricks also show off additional concepts in computer science and discrete mathematics.

Effects Of Grain Boundary Disorder On Yield Strength, 2018 Iowa State University and Ames Laboratory

#### Effects Of Grain Boundary Disorder On Yield Strength, Valery Borovikov, Mikhail I. Mendelev, Alexander H. King

*Materials Science and Engineering Publications*

It was recently reported that segregation of Zr to grain boundaries (GB) in nanocrystalline Cu can lead to the formation of disordered intergranular films [1,2]. In this study we employ atomistic computer simulations to study how the formation of these films affects the dislocation nucleation from the GBs. We found that full disorder of the grain boundary structure leads to the suppression of dislocation emission and significant increase of the yield stress. Depending on the solute concentration and heat-treatment, however, a partial disorder may also occur and this aids dislocation nucleation rather than suppressing it, resulting in elimination of ...

Making Models With Bayes, 2017 California State University, San Bernardino

#### Making Models With Bayes, Pilar Olid

*Electronic Theses, Projects, and Dissertations*

Bayesian statistics is an important approach to modern statistical analyses. It allows us to use our prior knowledge of the unknown parameters to construct a model for our data set. The foundation of Bayesian analysis is Bayes' Rule, which in its proportional form indicates that the posterior is proportional to the prior times the likelihood. We will demonstrate how we can apply Bayesian statistical techniques to fit a linear regression model and a hierarchical linear regression model to a data set. We will show how to apply different distributions to Bayesian analyses and how the use of a prior affects ...

Statistical Modelling, Optimal Strategies And Decisions In Two-Period Economies, 2017 The University of Western Ontario

#### Statistical Modelling, Optimal Strategies And Decisions In Two-Period Economies, Jiang Wu

*Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository*

Motivated by some real problems, our thesis puts forward two general two-period pricing models and explore optimal buying and selling strategies in two states of the two-period decision, when buyer/seller's decisions in the two periods are uncertain: commodity valuations may or may not be independent, may or may not follow the same distribution, be heavily or just lightly influenced by exogenous economic conditions, and so on. For both the example of buying laptops and the example of selling houses, the connections between each example and the two-envelope paradox encourage us to explore optimal strategies based on the works ...

Propagation Of Probabilistic Uncertainty: The Simplest Case (A Brief Pedagogical Introduction), 2017 University of Texas at El Paso

#### Propagation Of Probabilistic Uncertainty: The Simplest Case (A Brief Pedagogical Introduction), Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich

*Departmental Technical Reports (CS)*

The main objective of this text is to provide a brief introduction to formulas describing the simplest case of propagation of probabilistic uncertainty -- for students who have not yet taken a probability course.

Investigation Of Ternary Fission, 2017 California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo

#### Investigation Of Ternary Fission, Alex C. Kemnitz

*Physics*

Ternary fission is a rare occurrence in which three particles are produced from a single fission event. This analysis uses tracked fission event data recorded by NIFFTE’s time projection chamber with a series of refined cuts to isolate all possible ternary events. The experiment used two targets, each consisting of two isotopes; one target was Pu-239 and U-235, and the other was U-238 and U-235. The data was used to measure the ternary/binary fission ratios for each isotope. The ratios for the Pu-239 and U-235 target that were found are shown to be too high due to alpha ...

Circles, 2017 University of Southern California

#### Circles, Gabriel Leiner

*Gabriel Leiner*

Hazard Assessment Of Meteoroid Impact For The Design Of Lunar Habitats, 2017 Purdue University

#### Hazard Assessment Of Meteoroid Impact For The Design Of Lunar Habitats, Herta Paola Montoya, Shirley Dyke, Julio A. Ramirez, Antonio Bobet, H. Jay Melosh, Daniel Gomez

*The Summer Undergraduate Research Fellowship (SURF) Symposium*

The design of self-sustaining lunar habitats is a challenge primarily due to the Moon’s lack of atmospheric protection and hazardous environment. To assure safe habitats that will lead to further lunar and space exploration, it is necessary to assess the different hazards faced on the Moon such as meteoroid impacts, extreme temperatures, and radiation. In particular, meteoroids pose a risk to lunar structures due to their high frequency of occurrence and hypervelocity impact. Continuous meteoroid impacts can harm structural elements and vital equipment compromising the well-being of lunar inhabitants. This study is focused on the hazard conceptualization and quantification ...

Dependence Structures In Lévy-Type Markov Processes, 2017 University of Tennessee, Knoxville

#### Dependence Structures In Lévy-Type Markov Processes, Eddie Brendan Tu

*Doctoral Dissertations*

In this dissertation, we examine the positive and negative dependence of infinitely divisible distributions and Lévy-type Markov processes. Examples of infinitely divisible distributions include Poissonian distributions like compound Poisson and α-stable distributions. Examples of Lévy-type Markov processes include Lévy processes and Feller processes, which include a class of jump-diffusions, certain stochastic differential equations with Lévy noise, and subordinated Markov processes. Other examples of Lévy-type Markov processes are time-inhomogeneous Feller evolution systems (FES), which include additive processes. We will provide a tour of various forms of positive dependence, which include association, positive supermodular association (PSA), positive supermodular dependence (PSD), and positive ...

Burden Of Atopic Dermatitis In The United States: Analysis Of Healthcare Claims Data In The Commercial, Medicare, And Medi-Cal Databases, 2017 STATinMED Research/SIMR, Inc.

#### Burden Of Atopic Dermatitis In The United States: Analysis Of Healthcare Claims Data In The Commercial, Medicare, And Medi-Cal Databases, Sulena Shrestha, Raymond Miao, Li Wang, Jingdong Chao, Huseyin Yuce, Wenhui Wei

*Publications and Research*

Comparative data on the burden of atopic dermatitis (AD) in adults relative to the general population are limited. We performed a large-scale evaluation of the burden of disease among US adults with AD relative to matched non-AD controls, encompassing comorbidities, healthcare resource utilization (HCRU), and costs, using healthcare claims data. The impact of AD disease severity on these outcomes was also evaluated.

Educational Magic Tricks Based On Error-Detection Schemes, 2017 Loyola University Chicago

#### Educational Magic Tricks Based On Error-Detection Schemes, Ronald I. Greenberg

*Computer Science: Faculty Publications and Other Works*

Magic tricks based on computer science concepts help grab student attention and can motivate them to delve more deeply. Error detection ideas long used by computer scientists provide a rich basis for working magic; probably the most well known trick of this type is one included in the CS Unplugged activities. This paper shows that much more powerful variations of the trick can be performed, some in an unplugged environment and some with computer assistance. Some of the tricks also show off additional concepts in computer science and discrete mathematics.

Digital Forensics Tool Selection With Multi-Armed Bandit Problem, 2017 Sam Houston State University

#### Digital Forensics Tool Selection With Multi-Armed Bandit Problem, Umit Karabiyik, Tugba Karabiyik

*Annual ADFSL Conference on Digital Forensics, Security and Law*

Digital forensics investigation is a long and tedious process for an investigator in general. There are many tools that investigators must consider, both proprietary and open source. Forensics investigators must choose the best tool available on the market for their cases to make sure they do not overlook any evidence resides in suspect device within a reasonable time frame. This is however hard decision to make, since learning and testing all available tools make their job only harder. In this project, we define the digital forensics tool selection for a specific investigative task as a multi-armed bandit problem assuming that ...

Gilmore Girls And Instagram: A Statistical Look At The Popularity Of The Television Show Through The Lens Of An Instagram Page, 2017 Chapman University

#### Gilmore Girls And Instagram: A Statistical Look At The Popularity Of The Television Show Through The Lens Of An Instagram Page, Brittany Simmons

*Student Research Day Abstracts and Posters*

After going on the Warner Brothers Tour in December of 2015, I created a *Gilmore Girls* Instagram account. This account, which started off as a way for me to create edits of the show and post my photos from the tour turned into something bigger than I ever could have imagined. In just over a year I have over 55,000 followers. I post content including revival news, merchandise, and edits of the show that have been featured in Entertainment Weekly, Bustle, E! News, People Magazine, Yahoo News, & GilmoreNews.

I created a dataset of qualitative and quantitative outcomes from my ...

Statistical Analysis Of Markovian Queueing Models Of Limit Order Books, 2017 Washington University in St. Louis

#### Statistical Analysis Of Markovian Queueing Models Of Limit Order Books, Yiyao Luo

*Arts & Sciences Electronic Theses and Dissertations*

The objective of this thesis is to investigate the suitability of some Markovian queueing models in being able to effectively describe the dynamical properties of a limit order book more specifically. We review and compare the assumptions proposed by Huang et al.[Quantitative Finance,12,547-557(2012)] and Cont et al.[SIAM Journal for Financial Mathematics,4,1- 25(2013)], and estimate the intensity parameters in both ways, based on real data of a stock on the Nasdaq Stock Market. Trough comparing by cumulative distribution functions of first-passage time to state 0, we will hsow that the estimators of Cont ...

Does Logic Help Us Beat Monty Hall?, 2017 Cedarville University

#### Does Logic Help Us Beat Monty Hall?, Adam J. Hammett, Nathan A. Harold, Tucker R. Rhodes

*The Research and Scholarship Symposium*

The classical Monty Hall problem entails that a hypothetical game show contestant be presented three doors and told that behind one door is a car and behind the other two are far less appealing prizes, like goats. The contestant then picks a door, and the host (Monty) is to open a different door which contains one of the bad prizes. At this point in the game, the contestant is given the option of keeping the door she chose or changing her selection to the remaining door (since one has already been opened by Monty), after which Monty opens the chosen ...

The Battle Against Malaria: A Teachable Moment, 2017 Schoolcraft College

#### The Battle Against Malaria: A Teachable Moment, Randy K. Schwartz

*Journal of Humanistic Mathematics*

Malaria has been humanity’s worst public health problem throughout recorded history. Mathematical methods are needed to understand which factors are relevant to the disease and to develop counter-measures against it. This article and the accompanying exercises provide examples of those methods for use in lower- or upper-level courses dealing with probability, statistics, or population modeling. These can be used to illustrate such concepts as correlation, causation, conditional probability, and independence. The article explains how the apparent link between sickle cell trait and resistance to malaria was first verified in Uganda using the chi-squared probability distribution. It goes on to ...

Influences Of Probability Instruction On Undergraduates' Understanding Of Counting Processes, 2017 University of Kentucky

#### Influences Of Probability Instruction On Undergraduates' Understanding Of Counting Processes, Kayla Blyman

*Theses and Dissertations--Education Science*

Historically, students in an introductory finite mathematics course at a major university in the mid-south have struggled the most with the counting and probability unit, leading instructors to question if there was a better way to help students master the material. The purpose of this study was to begin to understand connections that undergraduate finite mathematics students are making between counting and probability. By examining student performance in counting and probability, this study provides insights that inform future instruction in courses that include counting and probability. Consequently, this study lays the groundwork for future inquiries in the field of undergraduate ...

Quantifying The Effect Of The Shift In Major League Baseball, 2017 Bard College

#### Quantifying The Effect Of The Shift In Major League Baseball, Christopher John Hawke Jr.

*Senior Projects Spring 2017*

Baseball is a very strategic and abstract game, but the baseball world is strangely obsessed with statistics. Modern mainstream statisticians often study offensive data, such as batting average or on-base percentage, in order to evaluate player performance. However, this project observes the game from the opposite perspective: the defensive side of the game. In hopes of analyzing the game from a more concrete perspective, countless mathemeticians - most famously, Bill James - have developed numerous statistical models based on real life data of Major League Baseball (MLB) players. Large numbers of metrics go into these models, but what this project attempts to ...