Probability Commons^™

Optimal Conditional Expectation At The Video Poker Game Jacks Or Better, Stewart N. Ethier, John J. Kim, Jiyeon Lee

UNLV Gaming Research & Review Journal

There are 134,459 distinct initial hands at the video poker game Jacks or Better, taking suit exchangeability into account. A computer program can determine the optimal strategy (i.e., which cards to hold) for each such hand, but a complete list of these strategies would require a book-length manuscript. Instead, a hand-rank table, which fits on a single page and reproduces the optimal strategy perfectly, was found for Jacks or Better as early as the mid 1990s. Is there a systematic way to derive such a hand-rank table? We show that there is indeed, and it involves finding the ...

Surprise Vs. Probability As A Metric For Proof, Edward K. Cheng, Matthew Ginther

Edward Cheng

In this Symposium issue celebrating his career, Professor Michael Risinger in Leveraging Surprise proposes using "the fundamental emotion of surprise" as a way of measuring belief for purposes of legal proof. More specifically, Professor Risinger argues that we should not conceive of the burden of proof in terms of probabilities such as 51%, 95%, or even "beyond a reasonable doubt." Rather, the legal system should reference the threshold using "words of estimative surprise" -asking jurors how surprised they would be if the fact in question were not true. Toward this goal (and being averse to cardinality), he suggests categories such ...

One-Dimensional Excited Random Walk With Unboundedly Many Excitations Per Site, Omar Chakhtoun

All Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

We study a discrete time excited random walk on the integers lattice requiring a tail decay estimate on the number of excitations per site and extend the existing framework, methods, and results to a wider class of excited random walks.

We give criteria for recurrence versus transience, ballisticity versus zero linear speed, completely classify limit laws in the transient regime, and establish a functional limit laws in the recurrence regime.

Infinite Sums, Products, And Urn Models, Yiyan Ni

Major Papers

This paper considers an urn and its evolution in discrete time steps. The

urn initially has two different colored balls(blue and red). We discuss different

cases where k blue balls (k = 1, 2, 3, ... ) will be added (or removed) at every

step if a blue ball is withdrawn, based on the goal of eventually withdrawing a

red ball P(R eventually). We compute the probability of eventually withdrawing

a red ball with two different methods–one using infinite sums and other using

infinite products. One advantage of this is that we can obtain P(R eventually) in

a complex ...

Analysis Of Ranked Gene Tree Probability Distributions Under The Coalescent Process For Detecting Anomaly Zones, Anastasiia Kim

Shared Knowledge Conference

In phylogenetic studies, gene trees are used to reconstruct species tree. Under the multispecies coalescent model, gene trees topologies may differ from that of species trees. The incorrect gene tree topology (one that does not match the species tree) that is more probable than the correct one is termed anomalous gene tree (AGT). Species trees that can generate such AGTs are said to be in the anomaly zone (AZ). In this region, the method of choosing the most common gene tree as the estimate of the species tree will be inconsistent and will converge to an incorrect species tree when ...

Statistical Investigation Of Road And Railway Hazardous Materials Transportation Safety, Amirfarrokh Iranitalab

Civil Engineering Theses, Dissertations, and Student Research

Transportation of hazardous materials (hazmat) in the United States (U.S.) constituted 22.8% of the total tonnage transported in 2012 with an estimated value of more than 2.3 billion dollars. As such, hazmat transportation is a significant economic activity in the U.S. However, hazmat transportation exposes people and environment to the infrequent but potentially severe consequences of incidents resulting in hazmat release. Trucks and trains carried 63.7% of the hazmat in the U.S. in 2012 and are the major foci of this dissertation. The main research objectives were 1) identification and quantification of the effects ...

Probabilities Involving Standard Trirectangular Tetrahedral Dice Rolls, Rulon Olmstead, Doneliezer Baize

Rose-Hulman Undergraduate Mathematics Journal

The goal is to be able to calculate probabilities involving irregular shaped dice rolls. Here it is attempted to model the probabilities of rolling standard tri-rectangular tetrahedral dice on a hard surface, such as a table top. The vertices and edges of a tetrahedron were projected onto the surface of a sphere centered at the center of mass of the tetrahedron. By calculating the surface areas bounded by the resultant geodesics, baseline probabilities were achieved. Using a 3D printer, dice were constructed of uniform density and the results of rolling them were recorded. After calculating the corresponding confidence intervals, the ...

Yelp’S Review Filtering Algorithm, Yao Yao, Ivelin Angelov, Jack Rasmus-Vorrath, Mooyoung Lee, Daniel W. Engels

SMU Data Science Review

In this paper, we present an analysis of features influencing Yelp's proprietary review filtering algorithm. Classifying or misclassifying reviews as recommended or non-recommended affects average ratings, consumer decisions, and ultimately, business revenue. Our analysis involves systematically sampling and scraping Yelp restaurant reviews. Features are extracted from review metadata and engineered from metrics and scores generated using text classifiers and sentiment analysis. The coefficients of a multivariate logistic regression model were interpreted as quantifications of the relative importance of features in classifying reviews as recommended or non-recommended. The model classified review recommendations with an accuracy of 78%. We found that ...

Applications Of Game Theory, Tableau, Analytics, And R To Fashion Design, Aisha Asiri

Electronic Theses & Dissertations Collection for Atlanta University & Clark Atlanta University

This thesis presents various models to the fashion industry to predict the profits for some products. To determine the expected performance of each product in 2016, we used tools of game theory to help us identify the expected value. We went further and performed a simple linear regression and used scatter plots to help us predict further the performance of the products of Prada. We used tools of game theory, analytics, and statistics to help us predict the performance of some of Prada's products. We also used the Tableau platform to visualize an overview of the products' performances. All ...

The Expected Number Of Patterns In A Random Generated Permutation On [N] = {1,2,...,N}, Evelyn Fokuoh

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Previous work by Flaxman (2004) and Biers-Ariel et al. (2018) focused on the number of distinct words embedded in a string of words of length n. In this thesis, we will extend this work to permutations, focusing on the maximum number of distinct permutations contained in a permutation on [n] = {1,2,...,n} and on the expected number of distinct permutations contained in a random permutation on [n]. We further considered the problem where repetition of subsequences are as a result of the occurrence of (Type A and/or Type B) replications. Our method of enumerating the Type A replications ...

Distribution Of A Sum Of Random Variables When The Sample Size Is A Poisson Distribution, Mark Pfister

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

A probability distribution is a statistical function that describes the probability of possible outcomes in an experiment or occurrence. There are many different probability distributions that give the probability of an event happening, given some sample size n. An important question in statistics is to determine the distribution of the sum of independent random variables when the sample size n is fixed. For example, it is known that the sum of n independent Bernoulli random variables with success probability p is a Binomial distribution with parameters n and p: However, this is not true when the sample size is not ...

Excess Versions Of The Minkowski And Hölder Inequalities, Iosif Pinelis

Iosif Pinelis

No abstract provided.

Pretrial Release And Failure-To-Appear In Mclean County, Il, Jonathan Monsma

Stevenson Center for Community and Economic Development to Stevenson Center for Community and Economic Development—Student Research

Actuarial risk assessment tools increasingly have been employed in jurisdictions across the U.S. to assist courts in the decision of whether someone charged with a crime should be detained or released prior to their trial. These tools should be continually monitored and researched by independent 3^rd parties to ensure that these powerful tools are being administered properly and used in the most proficient way as to provide socially optimal results. McLean County, Illinois began using the Public Safety Assessment-Court^TM (PSA-Court or simply PSA) risk assessment tool beginning in 2016. This study culls data from the McLean County ...

The Statistical Exploration In The $G$-Expectation Framework: The Pseudo Simulation And Estimation Of Variance Uncertainty, Yifan Li

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

The $G$-expectation framework, motivated by problems with \emph{uncertainty}, is a new generalization of the classical probability framework. Similar to the Choquet expectation, the $G$-expectation can be represented as the supremum of a class of linear expectations. In the past two decades, it has developed into a complete stochastic structure connected with a large family of nonlinear PDEs. Nonetheless, to apply it to real-world problems with uncertainty, it is fundamentally necessary to build up the associated statistical methodology.

This thesis explores the \emph{computation, simulation, and estimation} of the $G$-normal distribution (a typical distribution with variance uncertainty ...

On N/P-Asymptotic Distribution Of Vector Of Weighted Traces Of Powers Of Wishart Matrices, Jolanta Maria Pielaszkiewicz, Dietrich Von Rosen, Martin Singull

Electronic Journal of Linear Algebra

The joint distribution of standardized traces of $\frac{1}{n}XX'$ and of $\Big(\frac{1}{n}XX'\Big)^2$, where the matrix $X:p\times n$ follows a matrix normal distribution is proved asymptotically to be multivariate normal under condition $\frac{{n}}{p}\overset{n,p\rightarrow\infty}{\rightarrow}c>0$. Proof relies on calculations of asymptotic moments and cumulants obtained using a recursive formula derived in Pielaszkiewicz et al. (2015). The covariance matrix of the underlying vector is explicitely given as a function of $n$ and $p$.

Mixed Logical And Probabilistic Reasoning In The Game Of Clue, Todd W. Neller, Ziqian Luo

Computer Science Faculty Publications

Neller and Ziqian Luo ’18 presented a means of mixed logical and probabilistic reasoning with knowledge in the popular deductive mystery game Clue. Using at-least constraints, we more efficiently represented and reasoned about cardinality constraints on Clue card deal knowledge, and then employed a WalkSAT-based solution sampling algorithm with a tabu search metaheuristic in order to estimate the probabilities of unknown card places.

Deep Learning Analysis Of Limit Order Book, Xin Xu

Arts & Sciences Electronic Theses and Dissertations

In this paper, we build a deep neural network for modeling spatial structure in limit order book and make prediction for future best ask or best bid price based on ideas of (Sirignano 2016). We propose an intuitive data processing method to approximate the data is non-available for us based only on level I data that is more widely available. The model is based on the idea that there is local dependence for best ask or best bid price and sizes of related orders. First we use logistic regression to prove that this approach is reasonable. To show the advantages ...

Golden Arm: A Probabilistic Study Of Dice Control In Craps, Donald R. Smith, Robert Scott Iii

UNLV Gaming Research & Review Journal

This paper calculates how much control a craps shooter must possess on dice outcomes to eliminate the house advantage. A golden arm is someone who has dice control (or a rhythm roller or dice influencer). There are various strategies for dice control in craps. We discuss several possibilities of dice control that would result in several different mathematical models of control. We do not assert whether dice control is possible or not (there is a lack of published evidence). However, after studying casino-legal methods described by dice-control advocates, we can see only one realistic mathematical model that describes the resulting ...

Evaluation Of Using The Bootstrap Procedure To Estimate The Population Variance, Nghia Trong Nguyen

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The bootstrap procedure is widely used in nonparametric statistics to generate an empirical sampling distribution from a given sample data set for a statistic of interest. Generally, the results are good for location parameters such as population mean, median, and even for estimating a population correlation. However, the results for a population variance, which is a spread parameter, are not as good due to the resampling nature of the bootstrap method. Bootstrap samples are constructed using sampling with replacement; consequently, groups of observations with zero variance manifest in these samples. As a result, a bootstrap variance estimator will carry a ...

On Passing The Buck, Adam J. Hammett, Anna Joy Yang

The Research and Scholarship Symposium

Imagine there are n>1 people seated around a table, and person S starts with a fair coin they will flip to decide whom to hand the coin next -- if "heads" they pass right, and if "tails" they pass left. This process continues until all people at the table have "touched" the coin. Curiously, it turns out that all people seated at the table other than S have the same probability 1/(n-1) of being last to touch the coin. In fact, Lovasz and Winkler ("A note on the last new vertex visited by a random walk," J. Graph Theory ...