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Mediation Analysis For Censored Survival Data Under An Accelerated Failure Time Model, Isabel Fulcher, Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen, Paige Williams 2017 Harvard University

Mediation Analysis For Censored Survival Data Under An Accelerated Failure Time Model, Isabel Fulcher, Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen, Paige Williams

Harvard University Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Recent advances in causal mediation analysis have formalized conditions for estimating direct and indirect effects in various contexts. These approaches have been extended to a number of models for survival outcomes including accelerated failure time (AFT) models which are widely used in a broad range of health applications given their intuitive interpretation. In this setting, it has been suggested that under standard assumptions, the “difference” and “product” methods produce equivalent estimates of the indirect effect of exposure on the survival outcome. We formally show that these two methods may produce substantially different estimates in the presence of censoring or truncation ...


Gender Differences In Hiv Care Among Criminal Justice-Involved Persons: Baseline Data From The Care+ Corrections Study., Curt Beckwith, Breana Uhrig Castonguay, Claudia Trezza, Lauri Bazerman, Rudy Patrick, Alice Cates, Halli Olsen, Ann Kurth, Tao Liu, James Peterson, Irene Kuo 2017 George Washington University

Gender Differences In Hiv Care Among Criminal Justice-Involved Persons: Baseline Data From The Care+ Corrections Study., Curt Beckwith, Breana Uhrig Castonguay, Claudia Trezza, Lauri Bazerman, Rudy Patrick, Alice Cates, Halli Olsen, Ann Kurth, Tao Liu, James Peterson, Irene Kuo

Epidemiology and Biostatistics Faculty Publications

BACKGROUND: HIV-infected individuals recently released from incarceration have suboptimal linkage and engagement in community HIV care. We conducted a study to evaluate an information and communication technology intervention to increase linkage to community care among HIV-infected persons recently involved in the criminal justice (CJ) system. Baseline characteristics including risk behaviors and HIV care indicators are reported and stratified by gender.

METHODS: We recruited HIV-infected individuals in the District of Columbia jail and persons with a recent history of incarceration through community and street outreach. Participants completed a baseline computer-assisted personal interview regarding HIV care and antiretroviral treatment (ART) adherence, substance ...


Novel Models Of Visual Topographic Map Alignment In The Superior Colliculus., Ruben A Tikidji-Hamburyan, Tarek A El-Ghazawi, Jason W. Triplett 2016 George Washington University

Novel Models Of Visual Topographic Map Alignment In The Superior Colliculus., Ruben A Tikidji-Hamburyan, Tarek A El-Ghazawi, Jason W. Triplett

Pediatrics Faculty Publications

The establishment of precise neuronal connectivity during development is critical for sensing the external environment and informing appropriate behavioral responses. In the visual system, many connections are organized topographically, which preserves the spatial order of the visual scene. The superior colliculus (SC) is a midbrain nucleus that integrates visual inputs from the retina and primary visual cortex (V1) to regulate goal-directed eye movements. In the SC, topographically organized inputs from the retina and V1 must be aligned to facilitate integration. Previously, we showed that retinal input instructs the alignment of V1 inputs in the SC in a manner dependent on ...


The Moral Significance Of Indetectable Effects, Sven Ove Hansson 2016 University of New Hampshire

The Moral Significance Of Indetectable Effects, Sven Ove Hansson

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment

A reassessment of Parfit's fifth "mistake in moral mathematics."


Stochastic Optimization Of Adaptive Enrichment Designs For Two Subpopulations, Aaron Fisher, Michael Rosenblum 2016 Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health

Stochastic Optimization Of Adaptive Enrichment Designs For Two Subpopulations, Aaron Fisher, Michael Rosenblum

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

An adaptive enrichment design is a randomized trial that allows enrollment criteria to be modified at interim analyses, based on a preset decision rule. When there is prior uncertainty regarding treatment effect heterogeneity, these trial designs can provide improved power for detecting treatment effects in subpopulations. We present a simulated annealing approach to search over the space of decision rules and other parameters for an adaptive enrichment design. The goal is to minimize the expected number enrolled or expected duration, while preserving the appropriate power and Type I error rate. We also explore the benefits of parallel computation in the ...


An Examination Of The Neural Unreliability Thesis Of Autism, John Butler, Sophie Molholm, Gizely Andrade, John J. Foxe 2016 Dublin Institute of Technology

An Examination Of The Neural Unreliability Thesis Of Autism, John Butler, Sophie Molholm, Gizely Andrade, John J. Foxe

Articles

An emerging neuropathological theory of Autism, referred to here as “the neural unreliability thesis,” proposes greater variability in moment-to-moment cortical representation of environmental events, such that the system shows general instability in its impulse response function. Leading evidence for this thesis derives from functional neuroimaging, a methodology ill-suited for detailed assessment of sensory transmission dynamics occurring at the millisecond scale. Electrophysiological assessments of this thesis, however, are sparse and unconvincing. We conducted detailed examination of visual and somatosensory evoked activity using high-density electrical mapping in individuals with autism (N = 20) and precisely matched neurotypical controls (N = 20), recording large numbers ...


Very Rapid Onset Cannabis Dependence Risk In Relation To Co-Occurring Use Of Other Psychoactive Drugs, Olga A. Vsevolozhskaya, Fernando A. Wagner, James C. Anthony 2016 University of Kentucky

Very Rapid Onset Cannabis Dependence Risk In Relation To Co-Occurring Use Of Other Psychoactive Drugs, Olga A. Vsevolozhskaya, Fernando A. Wagner, James C. Anthony

Biostatistics Presentations

Background: Epidemiological estimates for lifetime cumulative incidence indicate that for every 9-11 who start using cannabis, one becomes a case of the cannabis dependence syndrome (CDS) – i.e., roughly 9%-11%. More recent estimates clarify that CDS risk might be much lower among ’cannabis only’ users, due in part to the fact that many ’cannabis only’ users try the drug a few times and never again. We turned to Hill functional analysis in order to study CDS probability soon after 1st cannabis use, estimated across strata defined by the number of recent days of cannabis use, with an acknowledgment that ...


Analysis Of Hiv Diversity In Hiv-Infected Black Men Who Have Sex With Men (Hptn 061), Iris Chen, Gordon Chau, Jing Wang, William Clarke, Mark A. Marzinke, Manya Magnus, +14 additional authors 2016 George Washington University

Analysis Of Hiv Diversity In Hiv-Infected Black Men Who Have Sex With Men (Hptn 061), Iris Chen, Gordon Chau, Jing Wang, William Clarke, Mark A. Marzinke, Manya Magnus, +14 Additional Authors

Epidemiology and Biostatistics Faculty Publications

Background

HIV populations often diversify in response to selective pressures, such as the immune response and antiretroviral drug use. We analyzed HIV diversity in Black men who have sex with men who were enrolled in the HIV Prevention Trials Network 061 study.

Methods

A high resolution melting (HRM) diversity assay was used to measure diversity in six regions of the HIV genome: two in gag, one in pol, and three in env. HIV diversity was analyzed for 146 men who were HIV infected at study enrollment, including three with acute infection and 13 with recent infection (identified using a multi-assay ...


Pertussis-Associated Pneumonia In Infants And Children From Low- And Middle-Income Countries Participating In The Perch Study., Breanna Barger-Kamate, Maria Deloria Knoll, E Wangeci Kagucia, Christine Prosperi, Henry C Baggett, Daniel E. Park, +31 additional authors 2016 George Washington University

Pertussis-Associated Pneumonia In Infants And Children From Low- And Middle-Income Countries Participating In The Perch Study., Breanna Barger-Kamate, Maria Deloria Knoll, E Wangeci Kagucia, Christine Prosperi, Henry C Baggett, Daniel E. Park, +31 Additional Authors

Epidemiology and Biostatistics Faculty Publications

BACKGROUND:  Few data exist describing pertussis epidemiology among infants and children in low- and middle-income countries to guide preventive strategies.

METHODS:  Children 1-59 months of age hospitalized with World Health Organization-defined severe or very severe pneumonia in 7 African and Asian countries and similarly aged community controls were enrolled in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health study. They underwent a standardized clinical evaluation and provided nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs and induced sputum (cases only) for Bordetella pertussis polymerase chain reaction. Risk factors and pertussis-associated clinical findings were identified.

RESULTS:  Bordetella pertussis was detected in 53 of 4200 (1.3 ...


Gathering Steam In Health Care: A Student History, Michael J. Leach 2016 Bendigo Health

Gathering Steam In Health Care: A Student History, Michael J. Leach

The STEAM Journal

In this reflection, I demonstrate STEAM in health care by outlining my 15 years as a university student engaged in formal education, extracurricular learning, research, and employment.


Efficiency Of Two Sample Tests Via The T-Mean Survival Time For Analyzing Event Time Observations, Lu Tian, Haoda Fu, Stephen J. Ruberg, Hajime Uno, LJ Wei 2016 Stanford University

Efficiency Of Two Sample Tests Via The T-Mean Survival Time For Analyzing Event Time Observations, Lu Tian, Haoda Fu, Stephen J. Ruberg, Hajime Uno, Lj Wei

Harvard University Biostatistics Working Paper Series

In comparing two treatments with the event time observations, the hazard ratio (HR) estimate is routinely used to quantify the treatment difference. However, this model dependent estimate may be difficult to interpret clinically especially when the proportional hazards (PH) assumption is violated. An alternative estimation procedure for treatment efficacy based on the restricted means survival time or t-year mean survival time (t-MST) has been discussed extensively in the statistical and clinical literature. On the other hand, a statistical test 1 via the HR or its asymptotically equivalent counterpart, the logrank test, is asymptotically distribution-free. In this paper, we assess the ...


Using Sensitivity Analyses For Unobserved Confounding To Address Covariate Measurement Error In Propensity Score Methods, Kara E. Rudolph, Elizabeth A. Stuart 2016 School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

Using Sensitivity Analyses For Unobserved Confounding To Address Covariate Measurement Error In Propensity Score Methods, Kara E. Rudolph, Elizabeth A. Stuart

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

Propensity score methods are a popular tool to control for confounding in observational data, but their bias-reduction properties are threatened by covariate measurement error. There are few easy-to-implement methods to correct for such bias. We describe and demonstrate how existing sensitivity analyses for unobserved confounding---propensity score calibration, Vanderweele and Arah's bias formulas, and Rosenbaum's sensitivity analysis---can be adapted to address this problem. In a simulation study, we examined the extent to which these sensitivity analyses can correct for several measurement error structures: classical, systematic differential, and heteroscedastic covariate measurement error. We then apply these approaches to address covariate ...


Confidence Intervals For Heritability Via Haseman-Elston Regression, Tamar Sofer 2016 University of Washington

Confidence Intervals For Heritability Via Haseman-Elston Regression, Tamar Sofer

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Heritability is the proportion of phenotypic variance in a population that is attributable to individual genotypes. Heritability is considered an important measure in both evolutionary biology and in medicine, and is routinely estimated and reported in genetic epidemiology studies. In population-based genome-wide association studies (GWAS), mixed models are used to estimate variance components, from which a heritability estimate is obtained. The estimated heritability is the proportion of the model's total variance that is due to the genetic relatedness matrix (kinship measured from genotypes). Current practice is to use bootstrapping, which is slow, or normal asymptotic approximation to estimate the ...


Correlates Of Hiv Acquisition In A Cohort Of Black Men Who Have Sex With Men In The United States: Hiv Prevention Trials Network (Hptn) 061, Beryl A. Koblin, Kenneth H. Mayer, Susan H. Eshleman, Lei Wang, Sharon B. Mannheimer, Carlos Del Rio, Steve Shoptaw, Manya Magnus, Susan Buchbinder, Leo Wilton, Ting-Yuan Liu, Vanessa Cummings, Estelle Piwowar-Manning, Sheldon D. Fields, Sam Griffith, Vanessa Elharrar, Darrell Wheeler 2016 New York Blood Center, New York, NY

Correlates Of Hiv Acquisition In A Cohort Of Black Men Who Have Sex With Men In The United States: Hiv Prevention Trials Network (Hptn) 061, Beryl A. Koblin, Kenneth H. Mayer, Susan H. Eshleman, Lei Wang, Sharon B. Mannheimer, Carlos Del Rio, Steve Shoptaw, Manya Magnus, Susan Buchbinder, Leo Wilton, Ting-Yuan Liu, Vanessa Cummings, Estelle Piwowar-Manning, Sheldon D. Fields, Sam Griffith, Vanessa Elharrar, Darrell Wheeler

Leo Wilton

Background

Black men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States (US) are affected by HIV at disproportionate rates compared to MSM of other race/ethnicities. Current HIV incidence estimates in this group are needed to appropriately target prevention efforts.

Methods

From July 2009 to October 2010, Black MSM reporting unprotected anal intercourse with a man in the past six months were enrolled and followed for one year in six US cities for a feasibility study of a multi-component intervention to reduce HIV infection. HIV incidence based on HIV seroconversion was calculated as number of events/100 person-years ...


Robust Alternatives To Ancova For Estimating The Treatment Effect Via A Randomized Comparative Study, Fei Jiang, Lu Tian, Haoda Fu, Takahiro Hasegawa, Marc Alan Pfeffer, L. J. Wei 2016 The University of Hong Kong

Robust Alternatives To Ancova For Estimating The Treatment Effect Via A Randomized Comparative Study, Fei Jiang, Lu Tian, Haoda Fu, Takahiro Hasegawa, Marc Alan Pfeffer, L. J. Wei

Harvard University Biostatistics Working Paper Series

In comparing two treatments via a randomized clinical trial, the analysis of covari- ance technique is often utilized to estimate an overall treatment effect. The ANCOVA is generally perceived as a more efficient procedure than its simple two sample estima- tion counterpart. Unfortunately when the ANCOVA model is not correctly specified, the resulting estimator is generally not consistent especially when the model is nonlin- ear. Recently various nonparametric alternatives, such as the augmentation methods, to ANCOVA have been proposed to estimate the treatment effect by adjusting the covariates. However, the properties of these alternatives have not been studied in the ...


Censoring Unbiased Regression Trees And Ensembles, Jon Arni Steingrimsson, Liqun Diao, Robert L. Strawderman 2016 Department of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

Censoring Unbiased Regression Trees And Ensembles, Jon Arni Steingrimsson, Liqun Diao, Robert L. Strawderman

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

This paper proposes a novel approach to building regression trees and ensemble learning in survival analysis. By first extending the theory of censoring unbiased transformations, we construct observed data estimators of full data loss functions in cases where responses can be right censored. This theory is used to construct two specific classes of methods for building regression trees and regression ensembles that respectively make use of Buckley-James and doubly robust estimating equations for a given full data risk function. For the particular case of squared error loss, we further show how to implement these algorithms using existing software (e.g ...


High-Throughput Allele-Specific Expression Across 250 Environmental Conditions, Gregory A. Moyerbrailean, Allison L. Richards, Daniel Kurtz, Cynthia A. Kalita, Gordon O. Davis, Chris T. Harvey, Adnan Alazizi, Donovan Watza, Yoram Sorokin, Nancy J. Hauff, Xiang Zhou, Xiaoquan Wen, Roger Pique-Regi, Francesca Luca 2016 Wayne State Center for Molecular Medicine and Genetics, Wayne State University

High-Throughput Allele-Specific Expression Across 250 Environmental Conditions, Gregory A. Moyerbrailean, Allison L. Richards, Daniel Kurtz, Cynthia A. Kalita, Gordon O. Davis, Chris T. Harvey, Adnan Alazizi, Donovan Watza, Yoram Sorokin, Nancy J. Hauff, Xiang Zhou, Xiaoquan Wen, Roger Pique-Regi, Francesca Luca

Center for Molecular Medicine and Genetics

Gene-by-environment (GxE) interactions determine common disease risk factors and biomedically relevant complex traits. However, quantifying how the environment modulates genetic effects on human quantitative phenotypes presents unique challenges. Environmental covariates are complex and difficult to measure and control at the organismal level, as found in GWAS and epidemiological studies. An alternative approach focuses on the cellular environment using in vitro treatments as a proxy for the organismal environment. These cellular environments simplify the organism-level environmental exposures to provide a tractable influence on subcellular phenotypes, such as gene expression. Expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) mapping studies identified GxE interactions in response ...


Online Cross-Validation-Based Ensemble Learning, David Benkeser, Samuel D. Lendle, Cheng Ju, Mark J. van der Laan 2016 Division of Biostatistics, University of California, Berkeley

Online Cross-Validation-Based Ensemble Learning, David Benkeser, Samuel D. Lendle, Cheng Ju, Mark J. Van Der Laan

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Online estimators update a current estimate with a new incoming batch of data without having to revisit past data thereby providing streaming estimates that are scalable to big data. We develop flexible, ensemble-based online estimators of an infinite-dimensional target parameter, such as a regression function, in the setting where data are generated sequentially by a common conditional data distribution given summary measures of the past. This setting encompasses a wide range of time-series models and as special case, models for independent and identically distributed data. Our estimator considers a large library of candidate online estimators and uses online cross-validation to ...


Doubly-Robust Nonparametric Inference On The Average Treatment Effect, David Benkeser, Marco Carone, Mark J. van der Laan, Peter Gilbert 2016 Division of Biostatistics, University of California, Berkeley

Doubly-Robust Nonparametric Inference On The Average Treatment Effect, David Benkeser, Marco Carone, Mark J. Van Der Laan, Peter Gilbert

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Doubly-robust estimators are widely used to draw inference about the average effect of a treatment. Such estimators are consistent for the effect of interest if either one of two nuisance parameters is consistently estimated. However, if flexible, data-adaptive estimators of these nuisance parameters are used, double-robustness does not readily extend to inference. We present a general theoretical study of the behavior of doubly-robust estimators of an average treatment effect when one of the nuisance parameters is inconsistently estimated. We contrast different approaches for constructing such estimators and investigate the extent to which they may be modified to also allow doubly-robust ...


Comparative Effectiveness Research Using Observational Data: Active Comparators To Emulate Target Trials With Inactive Comparators, Anders Huitfeldt, Miguel A. Hernan, Mette Kalager, James M. Robins 2016 Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health

Comparative Effectiveness Research Using Observational Data: Active Comparators To Emulate Target Trials With Inactive Comparators, Anders Huitfeldt, Miguel A. Hernan, Mette Kalager, James M. Robins

eGEMs (Generating Evidence & Methods to improve patient outcomes)

Introduction: Because a comparison of non-initiators and initiators of treatment may be hopelessly confounded, guidelines for the conduct of observational research often recommend using an “active” comparator group consisting of people who initiate a treatment other than the medication of interest. In this paper, we discuss the conditions under which this approach is valid if the goal is to emulate a trial with an inactive comparator.

Identification of Effects: We provide conditions under which a target trial in a subpopulation can be validly emulated from observational data, using an active comparator that is known or believed to be inactive for ...


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