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A Traders Guide To The Predictive Universe- A Model For Predicting Oil Price Targets And Trading On Them, Jimmie Harold Lenz 2016 Washington University in St. Louis

A Traders Guide To The Predictive Universe- A Model For Predicting Oil Price Targets And Trading On Them, Jimmie Harold Lenz

Doctor of Business Administration Dissertations

At heart every trader loves volatility; this is where return on investment comes from, this is what drives the proverbial “positive alpha.” As a trader, understanding the probabilities related to the volatility of prices is key, however if you could also predict future prices with reliability the world would be your oyster. To this end, I have achieved three goals with this dissertation, to develop a model to predict future short term prices (direction and magnitude), to effectively test this by generating consistent profits utilizing a trading model developed for this purpose, and to write a paper that anyone with ...


Reply To Valverde, Paul B. Thompson 2016 University of New Hampshire

Reply To Valverde, Paul B. Thompson

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment

Professor Thompson responds to Valverde's argument, in the last issue, that his approach to Risk puts too much emphasis on the distinction between Risk subjectivism and Risk objectivism. In doing so, he asserts, inter alia, that anchoring Risk judgments in a probabilistic framework does not go far enough in rejecting reigning Risk-analysis notions of "real Risk."


Performance-Constrained Binary Classification Using Ensemble Learning: An Application To Cost-Efficient Targeted Prep Strategies, Wenjing Zheng, Laura Balzer, Maya L. Petersen, Mark J. van der Laan 2016 Division of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley

Performance-Constrained Binary Classification Using Ensemble Learning: An Application To Cost-Efficient Targeted Prep Strategies, Wenjing Zheng, Laura Balzer, Maya L. Petersen, Mark J. Van Der Laan

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Binary classifications problems are ubiquitous in health and social science applications. In many cases, one wishes to balance two conflicting criteria for an optimal binary classifier. For instance, in resource-limited settings, an HIV prevention program based on offering Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) to select high-risk individuals must balance the sensitivity of the binary classifier in detecting future seroconverters (and hence offering them PrEP regimens) with the total number of PrEP regimens that is financially and logistically feasible for the program to deliver. In this article, we consider a general class of performance-constrained binary classification problems wherein the objective function and the ...


Optimal Design Of Low-Density Snp Arrays For Genomic Prediction: Algorithm And Applications, Xiao-Lin Wu, Jiaqi Xu, Guofei Feng, George R. Wiggans, Jeremy F. Taylor, Jun He, Changsong Qian, Jiansheng Qiu, Barry Simpson, Jeremy Walker, Stewart Bauck 2016 GeneSeek (a Neogen Company)

Optimal Design Of Low-Density Snp Arrays For Genomic Prediction: Algorithm And Applications, Xiao-Lin Wu, Jiaqi Xu, Guofei Feng, George R. Wiggans, Jeremy F. Taylor, Jun He, Changsong Qian, Jiansheng Qiu, Barry Simpson, Jeremy Walker, Stewart Bauck

Faculty Publications, Department of Statistics

Low-density (LD) single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) arrays provide a cost-effective solution for genomic prediction and selection, but algorithms and computational tools are needed for the optimal design of LD SNP chips. A multiple-objective, local optimization (MOLO) algorithm was developed for design of optimal LD SNP chips that can be imputed accurately to medium-density (MD) or high-density (HD) SNP genotypes for genomic prediction. The objective function facilitates maximization of non-gap map length and system information for the SNP chip, and the latter is computed either as locus-averaged (LASE) or haplotype-averaged Shannon entropy (HASE) and adjusted for uniformity of the SNP distribution ...


Probabilistic Methods In Information Theory, Erik W. Pachas 2016 Cal State University-San Bernardino

Probabilistic Methods In Information Theory, Erik W. Pachas

Electronic Theses, Projects, and Dissertations

Given a probability space, we analyze the uncertainty, that is, the amount of information of a finite system, by studying the entropy of the system. We also extend the concept of entropy to a dynamical system by introducing a measure preserving transformation on a probability space. After showing some theorems and applications of entropy theory, we study the concept of ergodicity, which helps us to further analyze the information of the system.


Passive Visual Analytics Of Social Media Data For Detection Of Unusual Events, Kush Rustagi, Junghoon Chae 2016 Purdue University

Passive Visual Analytics Of Social Media Data For Detection Of Unusual Events, Kush Rustagi, Junghoon Chae

The Summer Undergraduate Research Fellowship (SURF) Symposium

Now that social media sites have gained substantial traction, huge amounts of un-analyzed valuable data are being generated. Posts containing images and text have spatiotemporal data attached as well, having immense value for increasing situational awareness of local events, providing insights for investigations and understanding the extent of incidents, their severity, and consequences, as well as their time-evolving nature. However, the large volume of unstructured social media data hinders exploration and examination. To analyze such social media data, the S.M.A.R.T system provides the analyst with an interactive visual spatiotemporal analysis and spatial decision support environment that ...


Well I'Ll Be Damned - Insights Into Predictive Value Of Pedigree Information In Horse Racing, Timothy Baker Mr, Ming-Chien Sung, Johnnie Johnson Professor, Tiejun Ma 2016 University of Southampton

Well I'Ll Be Damned - Insights Into Predictive Value Of Pedigree Information In Horse Racing, Timothy Baker Mr, Ming-Chien Sung, Johnnie Johnson Professor, Tiejun Ma

International Conference on Gambling and Risk Taking

Fundamental form characteristics like how fast a horse ran at its last start, are widely used to help predict the outcome of horse racing events. The exception being in races where horses haven’t previously competed, such as Maiden races, where there is little or no publicly available past performance information. In these types of events bettors need only consider a simplified suite of factors however this is offset by a higher level of uncertainty. This paper examines the inherent information content embedded within a horse’s ancestry and the extent to which this information is discounted in the United ...


Takens Theorem With Singular Spectrum Analysis Applied To Noisy Time Series, Thomas K. Torku 2016 East Tennessee State University

Takens Theorem With Singular Spectrum Analysis Applied To Noisy Time Series, Thomas K. Torku

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The evolution of big data has led to financial time series becoming increasingly complex, noisy, non-stationary and nonlinear. Takens theorem can be used to analyze and forecast nonlinear time series, but even small amounts of noise can hopelessly corrupt a Takens approach. In contrast, Singular Spectrum Analysis is an excellent tool for both forecasting and noise reduction. Fortunately, it is possible to combine the Takens approach with Singular Spectrum analysis (SSA), and in fact, estimation of key parameters in Takens theorem is performed with Singular Spectrum Analysis. In this thesis, we combine the denoising abilities of SSA with the Takens ...


Flesch-Kincaid Reading Grade Level Re-Examined: Creating A Uniform Method For Calculating Readability On A Certification Exam, Emily Neuhoff, Kristiana M. Feeser, Kayla Sutherland, Thomas Hovatter 2016 Southern Illinois University Carbondale

Flesch-Kincaid Reading Grade Level Re-Examined: Creating A Uniform Method For Calculating Readability On A Certification Exam, Emily Neuhoff, Kristiana M. Feeser, Kayla Sutherland, Thomas Hovatter

Online Journal for Workforce Education and Development

Abstract

Objective: This study attempted to establish a consistent measurement technique of the readability of a state-wide Certified Nursing Assistant’s (CNA) certification exam. Background: Monitoring the readability level of an exam helps ensure all test versions do not exceed the maximum reading level of the exam, and that knowledge of the subject matter, rather than reading ability, is being assessed. Method: A two part approach was used to specify and evaluate readability. First, two methods (Microsoft Word® (MSW) software and published readability formulae) were used to calculate Flesch Reading Ease (FRE) and Flesch-Kincaid Reading Grade Level (FKRGL) for multiple ...


Spatiotemporal Meta-Analysis: Reviewing Health Psychology Phenomena Over Space And Time., Blair T. Johnson 2016 University of Connecticut

Spatiotemporal Meta-Analysis: Reviewing Health Psychology Phenomena Over Space And Time., Blair T. Johnson

CHIP Documents

This supplemental material is meant to support this article:

Johnson, B. T., Crowley, E., & Marrouch, N. Spatiotemporal meta-analysis: Reviewing health psychology phenomena over space and time. Health Psychology Review.

Specifically, it is a database of GDPs per capita for nations in the world between 1800 and 2015. It is archived here to support an online supplement to this article.

GDP per capita


Addressing Endogeneity In Actor-Speci Fi C Network Measures, Frederick J. Boehmke, Olga Chyzh, Cameron G. Thies 2016 University of Iowa

Addressing Endogeneity In Actor-Speci Fi C Network Measures, Frederick J. Boehmke, Olga Chyzh, Cameron G. Thies

Political Science Publications

The study of international relations (IR), and political science more broadly, has derived great benefits from the recent growth of conceptualizing and modeling political phenomena within their broader network contexts. More than just a novel approach to evaluating the old puzzles, network analysis provides a whole new way of theoretical thinking. Challenging the traditional dyad-driven approach to the study of IR, networks highlight actor interdependence that goes beyond dyads and emphasizes that many traditional IR variables, such as conflict, trade, alliances, or international organization memberships must be treated and studied as networks. Properties of these networks (e.g., polarization, density ...


Keeping Up With Which Joneses: Spatial Diffusion Of Rule Of Law Through Economic International Organizations, Olga Chyzh 2016 Iowa State University

Keeping Up With Which Joneses: Spatial Diffusion Of Rule Of Law Through Economic International Organizations, Olga Chyzh

Political Science Publications

I develop a theory of spatial diffusion of the rule of law, where “space” is conceptualized as shared memberships in economic international organizations (IOs). I argue that the rule of law diffuses as a result of economic competition and socialization. Outside evaluators, such as international leaders, activists, and most importantly, international firms and investors, often assess states’ attractiveness as a business venue by comparing them to similar states. The natural reference group for such comparisons is not just geographical neighbors, but also states with shared memberships in economic IOs. Responding to this evaluation, states identify members of their own reference ...


Dangerous Liaisons An Endogenous Model Of International Trade And Human Rights, Olga Chyzh 2016 Iowa State University

Dangerous Liaisons An Endogenous Model Of International Trade And Human Rights, Olga Chyzh

Political Science Publications

This article applies recent advances in network analysis to highlight a central tension faced by policymakers – balancing the benefits of engaging with the international system and the associated domestic policy costs. International trade rewards certain domestic practices, such as respect for human rights. Enforcing such practices, however, is politically costly and sometimes prohibitive to state leaders who rely on political repression to stay in power. In such cases, domestic elites often resort to an alternative strategy of securing the benefits of international trade – setting up indirect trade channels through intermediary states. These competing incentives are modeled within a single framework ...


How Often Are Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria Said To “Evolve” In The News?, Nina Singh, Matthew T. Sit, Deanna M. Chung, Ana A. Lopez, Ranil Weerackoon, Pamela J. Yeh 2016 University of California Los Angeles

How Often Are Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria Said To “Evolve” In The News?, Nina Singh, Matthew T. Sit, Deanna M. Chung, Ana A. Lopez, Ranil Weerackoon, Pamela J. Yeh

Faculty Publications, Department of Statistics

Media plays an important role in informing the general public about scientific ideas.We examine whether the word “evolve,” sometimes considered controversial by the general public, is frequently used in the popular press. Specifically, we ask how often articles discussing antibiotic resistance use the word “evolve” (or its lexemes) as opposed to alternative terms such as “emerge” or “develop.” We chose the topic of antibiotic resistance because it is a medically important issue; bacterial evolution is a central player in human morbidity and mortality. We focused on the most widely-distributed newspapers written in English in the United States, United Kingdom ...


Species Discovery And Diversity In Lobocriconema (Criconematidae: Nematoda) And Related Plant-Parasitic Nematodes From North American Ecoregions, Tom Powers, Ernest C. Bernard, T. Harris, Robert Higgins, M. Olson, S. Olson, M. Lodema, Julianne N. Matczyszyn, P. Mullin, L. Sutton, K.S Powers 2016 University of Nebraska-Lincoln

Species Discovery And Diversity In Lobocriconema (Criconematidae: Nematoda) And Related Plant-Parasitic Nematodes From North American Ecoregions, Tom Powers, Ernest C. Bernard, T. Harris, Robert Higgins, M. Olson, S. Olson, M. Lodema, Julianne N. Matczyszyn, P. Mullin, L. Sutton, K.S Powers

Faculty Publications, Department of Statistics

There are many nematode species that, following formal description, are seldom mentioned again in the scientific literature. Lobocriconema thornei and L. incrassatum are two such species, described from North American forests, respectively 37 and 49 years ago. In the course of a 3-year nematode biodiversity survey of North American ecoregions, specimens resembling Lobocriconema species appeared in soil samples from both grassland and forested sites. Using a combination of molecular and morphological analyses, together with a set of species delimitation approaches, we have expanded the known range of these species, added to the species descriptions, and discovered a related group of ...


Systematic Evaluation Of The Impact Of Chip-Seq Read Designs On Genome Coverage, Peak Identification, And Allele-Specific Binding Detection, Qi Zhang, Xin Zeng, Sam Younkin, Trupti Kawli, Michael P. Snyder, Sündüz Kele 2016 University of Nebraska-Lincoln

Systematic Evaluation Of The Impact Of Chip-Seq Read Designs On Genome Coverage, Peak Identification, And Allele-Specific Binding Detection, Qi Zhang, Xin Zeng, Sam Younkin, Trupti Kawli, Michael P. Snyder, Sündüz Kele

Faculty Publications, Department of Statistics

Background: Chromatin immunoprecipitation followed by sequencing (ChIP-seq) experiments revolutionized genome-wide profiling of transcription factors and histone modifications. Although maturing sequencing technologies allow these experiments to be carried out with short (36–50 bps), long (75–100 bps), single-end, or paired-end reads, the impact of these read parameters on the downstream data analysis are not well understood. In this paper, we evaluate the effects of different read parameters on genome sequence alignment, coverage of different classes of genomic features, peak identification, and allele-specific binding detection.

Results: We generated 101 bps paired-end ChIP-seq data for many transcription factors from human GM12878 and ...


Enscat: Clustering Of Categorical Data Via Ensembling, Bertrand S. Clarke, Saeid Amiri, Jennifer Clarke 2016 University of Nebraska-Lincoln

Enscat: Clustering Of Categorical Data Via Ensembling, Bertrand S. Clarke, Saeid Amiri, Jennifer Clarke

Faculty Publications, Department of Statistics

Background: Clustering is a widely used collection of unsupervised learning techniques for identifying natural classes within a data set. It is often used in bioinformatics to infer population substructure. Genomic data are often categorical and high dimensional, e.g., long sequences of nucleotides. This makes inference challenging: The distance metric is often not well-defined on categorical data; running time for computations using high dimensional data can be considerable; and the Curse of Dimensionality often impedes the interpretation of the results. Up to the present, however, the literature and software addressing clustering for categorical data has not yet led to a ...


A Genomic Bayesian Multi-Trait And Multi-Environment Model, Osval A. Montesinos-López, Abelardo Montesinos-López, José Crossa, Fernando Toledo, Oscar Pérez-Hernández, Kent Eskridge, Jessica Rutkoski 2016 Biometrics and Statistics Unit and Global Wheat Program of the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT)

A Genomic Bayesian Multi-Trait And Multi-Environment Model, Osval A. Montesinos-López, Abelardo Montesinos-López, José Crossa, Fernando Toledo, Oscar Pérez-Hernández, Kent Eskridge, Jessica Rutkoski

Faculty Publications, Department of Statistics

When information on multiple genotypes evaluated in multiple environments is recorded, a multi-environment single trait model for assessing genotype × environment interaction (G×E) is usually employed. Comprehensive models that simultaneously take into account the correlated traits and trait × genotype × environment interaction (T×G×E) are lacking. In this research, we propose a Bayesian model for analyzing multiple traits and multiple environments for whole-genome prediction (WGP) model. For this model, we used Half-𝑡 priors on each standard deviation term and uniform priors on each correlation of the covariance matrix. These priors were not informative and led to posterior inferences that were ...


Genomic Bayesian Prediction Model For Count Data With Genotype X Environment Interaction, Abelardo Montesinos-López, Osval A. Montesinos-López, José Crossa, Juan Burgueño, Kent Eskridge, Esteban Falconi-Castillo, Xinyao He, Pawan Singh, Karen Cichy 2016 Centro de Investigación en Matemáticas (CIMAT)

Genomic Bayesian Prediction Model For Count Data With Genotype X Environment Interaction, Abelardo Montesinos-López, Osval A. Montesinos-López, José Crossa, Juan Burgueño, Kent Eskridge, Esteban Falconi-Castillo, Xinyao He, Pawan Singh, Karen Cichy

Faculty Publications, Department of Statistics

Genomic tools allow the study of the whole genome, and facilitate the study of genotype-environment combinations and their relationship with phenotype. However, most genomic prediction models developed so far are appropriate for Gaussian phenotypes. For this reason, appropriate genomic prediction models are needed for count data, since the conventional regression models used on count data with a large sample size (nT ) and a small number of parameters (p) cannot be used for genomic-enabled prediction where the number of parameters (p) is larger than the sample size (nT ). Here, we propose a Bayesian mixed-negative binomial (BMNB) genomic regression model ...


A Nonlinear Filter For Markov Chains And Its Effect On Diffusion Maps, Stefan Steinerberger 2015 Yale University

A Nonlinear Filter For Markov Chains And Its Effect On Diffusion Maps, Stefan Steinerberger

Yale Day of Data

Diffusion maps are a modern mathematical tool that helps to find structure in large data sets - we present a new filtering technique that is based on the assumption that errors in the data are intrinsically random to isolate and filter errors and thus boost the efficiency of diffusion maps. Applications include data sets from medicine (the Cleveland Heart Disease Data set and the Wisconsin Breast Cancer Data set) and engineering (the Ionosphere data set).


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