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Randomization-Based Confidence Intervals For Cluster Randomized Trials, Dustin J. Rabideau, Rui Wang 2020 Harvard University

Randomization-Based Confidence Intervals For Cluster Randomized Trials, Dustin J. Rabideau, Rui Wang

Harvard University Biostatistics Working Paper Series

In a cluster randomized trial (CRT), groups of people are randomly assigned to different interventions. Existing parametric and semiparametric methods for CRTs rely on distributional assumptions or a large number of clusters to maintain nominal confidence interval (CI) coverage. Randomization-based inference is an alternative approach that is distribution-free and does not require a large number of clusters to be valid. Although it is well-known that a CI can be obtained by inverting a randomization test, this requires randomization testing a non-zero null hypothesis, which is challenging with non-continuous and survival outcomes. In this paper, we propose a general method for ...


Introduction To Game Theory: A Discovery Approach, Jennifer Firkins Nordstrom 2020 Linfield College

Introduction To Game Theory: A Discovery Approach, Jennifer Firkins Nordstrom

Linfield Authors Book Gallery

Game theory is an excellent topic for a non-majors quantitative course as it develops mathematical models to understand human behavior in social, political, and economic settings. The variety of applications can appeal to a broad range of students. Additionally, students can learn mathematics through playing games, something many choose to do in their spare time! This text also includes an exploration of the ideas of game theory through the rich context of popular culture. It contains sections on applications of the concepts to popular culture. It suggests films, television shows, and novels with themes from game theory. The questions in ...


Evaluation Of An Elk Detection Probability Model In The Black Hills, South Dakota, Evan C. Phillips, Chadwick P. Lehman, Robert W. Klaver, Angela R. Jarding, Susan P. Rupp, Jonathan A. Jenks, Christopher N. Jacques 2020 South Dakota State University

Evaluation Of An Elk Detection Probability Model In The Black Hills, South Dakota, Evan C. Phillips, Chadwick P. Lehman, Robert W. Klaver, Angela R. Jarding, Susan P. Rupp, Jonathan A. Jenks, Christopher N. Jacques

Natural Resource Ecology and Management Publications

Since 1993, elk (Cervus canadensis nelsoni) abundance in the Black Hills of South Dakota has been estimated using a detection probability model previously developed in Idaho, though it is likely biased because of a failure to account for visibility biases under local conditions. To correct for this bias, we evaluated the current detection probability across the Black Hills during January and February 2009–2011 using radio-collared elk. We used logistic regression to evaluate topographic features, habitat characteristics, and group characteristics relative to their influence on detection probability of elk. Elk detection probability increased with less vegetation cover (%), increased group size ...


Association Between Baseline Abundance Of Peptoniphilus, A Gram-Positive Anaerobic Coccus, And Wound Healing Outcomes Of Dfus, Kyung R. Min, Adriana Galvis, Katherine L. Baquerizo Nole, Rohita Sinha, Jennifer Clarke, Robert S. Kirsner, Dragana Ajdic 2020 University of Miami

Association Between Baseline Abundance Of Peptoniphilus, A Gram-Positive Anaerobic Coccus, And Wound Healing Outcomes Of Dfus, Kyung R. Min, Adriana Galvis, Katherine L. Baquerizo Nole, Rohita Sinha, Jennifer Clarke, Robert S. Kirsner, Dragana Ajdic

Faculty Publications, Department of Statistics

Diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs) lead to nearly 100,000 lower limb amputations annually in the United States. DFUs are colonized by complex microbial communities, and infection is one of the most common reasons for diabetes-related hospitalizations and amputations. In this study, we examined how DFU microbiomes respond to initial sharp debridement and off- loading and how the initial composition associates with 4 week healing outcomes. We employed 16S rRNA next generation sequencing to perform microbial profiling on 50 sam- ples collected from 10 patients with vascularized neuropathic DFUs. Debrided wound sam- ples were obtained at initial visit and after one ...


Playfair's Introduction Of Bar And Pie Charts To Represent Data, Diana White, River Bond, Joshua Eastes, Negar Janani 2020 University of Colorado Denver

Playfair's Introduction Of Bar And Pie Charts To Represent Data, Diana White, River Bond, Joshua Eastes, Negar Janani

Statistics and Probability

No abstract provided.


Representing And Interpreting Data From Playfair, Diana White, River Bond, Joshua Eastes, Negar Janani 2020 University of Colorado Denver

Representing And Interpreting Data From Playfair, Diana White, River Bond, Joshua Eastes, Negar Janani

Statistics and Probability

No abstract provided.


Employing Very High Frequency (Vhf) Radio Telemetry To Recreate Monarch Butterfly Flight Paths, Kelsey E. Fisher, James S. Adelman, Steven P. Bradbury 2020 Iowa State University

Employing Very High Frequency (Vhf) Radio Telemetry To Recreate Monarch Butterfly Flight Paths, Kelsey E. Fisher, James S. Adelman, Steven P. Bradbury

Natural Resource Ecology and Management Publications

The overwintering population of eastern North American monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) has declined significantly. Loss of milkweed (Asclepias sp.), the monarch’s obligate host plant in the Midwest United States, is considered to be a major cause of the decline. Restoring breeding habitat is an actionable step towards population recovery. Monarch butterflies are highly vagile; therefore, the spatial arrangement of milkweed in the landscape influences movement patterns, habitat utilization, and reproductive output. Empirical studies of female movement patterns within and between habitat patches in representative agricultural landscapes support recommendations for habitat restoration. To track monarch movement at distances beyond human ...


Predicting Crop Yields And Soil‐Plant Nitrogen Dynamics In The Us Corn Belt, Sotirios V. Archontoulis, Michael J. Castellano, Mark A. Licht, Virginia Nichols, Mitch Baum, Isaiah Huber, Rafael Martinez-Feria, Laila Puntel, Raziel A. Ordonez, Javed Iqbal, Emily E. Wright, Ranae N. Dietzel, Matthew Helmers, Andy VanLoocke, Matt Liebman, Jerry L. Hatfield, Daryl Herzmann, S. Carolina Córdova, Patrick Edmonds, Kaitlin Togliatti, Ashlyn Kessler, Gerasimos Danalatos, Heather Pasley, Carl Pederson, Kendall R. Lamkey 2020 Iowa State University

Predicting Crop Yields And Soil‐Plant Nitrogen Dynamics In The Us Corn Belt, Sotirios V. Archontoulis, Michael J. Castellano, Mark A. Licht, Virginia Nichols, Mitch Baum, Isaiah Huber, Rafael Martinez-Feria, Laila Puntel, Raziel A. Ordonez, Javed Iqbal, Emily E. Wright, Ranae N. Dietzel, Matthew Helmers, Andy Vanloocke, Matt Liebman, Jerry L. Hatfield, Daryl Herzmann, S. Carolina Córdova, Patrick Edmonds, Kaitlin Togliatti, Ashlyn Kessler, Gerasimos Danalatos, Heather Pasley, Carl Pederson, Kendall R. Lamkey

Agronomy Publications

We used the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) to predict and explain maize and soybean yields, phenology, and soil water and nitrogen (N) dynamics during the growing season in Iowa, USA. Historical, current and forecasted weather data were used to drive simulations, which were released in public four weeks after planting. In this paper, we (1) describe the methodology used to perform forecasts; (2) evaluate model prediction accuracy against data collected from 10 locations over four years; and (3) identify inputs that are key in forecasting yields and soil N dynamics. We found that the predicted median yield at planting ...


Essays On Modeling And Analysis Of Dynamic Sociotechnical Systems, David Rushing Dewhurst 2020 University of Vermont

Essays On Modeling And Analysis Of Dynamic Sociotechnical Systems, David Rushing Dewhurst

Graduate College Dissertations and Theses

A sociotechnical system is a collection of humans and algorithms that interact under the partial supervision of a decentralized controller. These systems often display in- tricate dynamics and can be characterized by their unique emergent behavior. In this work, we describe, analyze, and model aspects of three distinct classes of sociotech- nical systems: financial markets, social media platforms, and elections. Though our work is diverse in subject matter content, it is unified though the study of evolution- and adaptation-driven change in social systems and the development of methods used to infer this change.

We first analyze evolutionary financial market microstructure ...


Methodological Issues Of Spatial Agent-Based Models, Steven Manson, Li An, Keith C. Clarke, Alison Heppenstall, Jennifer Koch, Brittany Krzyzanowski, Fraser Morgan, David O'Sullivan, Bryan C. Runck, Eric Shook, Leigh Tesfatsion 2020 University of Minnesota - Twin Cities

Methodological Issues Of Spatial Agent-Based Models, Steven Manson, Li An, Keith C. Clarke, Alison Heppenstall, Jennifer Koch, Brittany Krzyzanowski, Fraser Morgan, David O'Sullivan, Bryan C. Runck, Eric Shook, Leigh Tesfatsion

Economics Publications

Agent based modeling (ABM) is a standard tool that is useful across many disciplines. Despite widespread and mounting interest in ABM, even broader adoption has been hindered by a set of methodological challenges that run from issues around basic tools to the need for a more complete conceptual foundation for the approach. After several decades of progress, ABMs remain difficult to develop and use for many students, scholars, and policy makers. This difficulty holds especially true for models designed to represent spatial patterns and processes across a broad range of human, natural, and human-environment systems. In this paper, we describe ...


Estimating Arthropod Survival Probability From Field Counts: A Case Study With Monarch Butterflies, Tyler J. Grant, D. T. Tyler Flockhart, Teresa R. Blader, Richard L. Hellmich, Grace M. Pitman, Sam Tyner, D. Ryan Norris, Steven P. Bradbury 2020 Iowa State University

Estimating Arthropod Survival Probability From Field Counts: A Case Study With Monarch Butterflies, Tyler J. Grant, D. T. Tyler Flockhart, Teresa R. Blader, Richard L. Hellmich, Grace M. Pitman, Sam Tyner, D. Ryan Norris, Steven P. Bradbury

Entomology Publications

Survival probability is fundamental for understanding population dynamics. Methods for estimating survival probability from field data typically require marking individuals, but marking methods are not possible for arthropod species that molt their exoskeleton between life stages. We developed a novel Bayesian state‐space model to estimate arthropod larval survival probability from stage‐structured count data. We performed simulation studies to evaluate estimation bias due to detection probability, individual variation in stage duration, and study design (sampling frequency and sample size). Estimation of cumulative survival probability from oviposition to pupation was robust to potential sources of bias. Our simulations also provide ...


Extracting Agronomic Information From Smos Vegetation Optical Depth In The Us Corn Belt Using A Nonlinear Hierarchical Model, Colin Lewis-Beck, Victoria A. Walker, Jarad Niemi, Petrutza Caragea, Brian K. Hornbuckle 2020 Iowa State University

Extracting Agronomic Information From Smos Vegetation Optical Depth In The Us Corn Belt Using A Nonlinear Hierarchical Model, Colin Lewis-Beck, Victoria A. Walker, Jarad Niemi, Petrutza Caragea, Brian K. Hornbuckle

Statistics Publications

Remote sensing observations that vary in response to plant growth and senescence can be used to monitor crop development within and across growing seasons. Identifying when crops reach specific growth stages can improve harvest yield prediction and quantify climate change. Using the Level 2 vegetation optical depth (VOD) product from the European Space Agency’s Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite, we retrospectively estimate the timing of a key crop development stage in the United States Corn Belt. We employ nonlinear curves nested within a hierarchical modeling framework to extract the timing of the third reproductive development stage of ...


Knot Selection In Sparse Gaussian Processes With A Variational Objective Function, Nathaniel Garton, Jarad Niemi, Alicia Carriquiry 2020 Iowa State University

Knot Selection In Sparse Gaussian Processes With A Variational Objective Function, Nathaniel Garton, Jarad Niemi, Alicia Carriquiry

Statistics Publications

Sparse, knot‐based Gaussian processes have enjoyed considerable success as scalable approximations of full Gaussian processes. Certain sparse models can be derived through specific variational approximations to the true posterior, and knots can be selected to minimize the Kullback‐Leibler divergence between the approximate and true posterior. While this has been a successful approach, simultaneous optimization of knots can be slow due to the number of parameters being optimized. Furthermore, there have been few proposed methods for selecting the number of knots, and no experimental results exist in the literature. We propose using a one‐at‐a‐time knot selection ...


Comparing Agricultural Conservation Planning Framework (Acpf) Practice Placements For Runoff Mitigation And Controlled Drainage Among 32 Watersheds Representing Iowa Landscapes, Mark D. Tomer, Jessica D. Van Horn, Sarah A. Porter, David E. James, Jarad Niemi 2020 U.S. Department of Agriculture

Comparing Agricultural Conservation Planning Framework (Acpf) Practice Placements For Runoff Mitigation And Controlled Drainage Among 32 Watersheds Representing Iowa Landscapes, Mark D. Tomer, Jessica D. Van Horn, Sarah A. Porter, David E. James, Jarad Niemi

Statistics Publications

Precision conservation planning tools can use high-resolution data to identify conservation practice-placement options for watershed improvement plans. Use of these tools across multiple watersheds could help to identify regional conservation strategies. This study evaluated practice-placement options determined using the Agricultural Conservation Planning Framework (ACPF) ArcGIS tools for controlled drainage (CD), contour buffer strips (CBS), water and sediment control basins (WASCOBs), and grassed waterways (GWWs) across 32 headwater hydrological unit code (HUC)12 watersheds in Iowa. The watersheds represented three Major Land Resource Areas (MLRAs) and four Agro-Hydrologic Landscape (AHL) classes, with four watersheds randomly chosen from each of eight combined ...


Mass Grave Localization Prediction With Geographical Information Systems In Guatemala And Future Impacts, Perla Santillan 2020 VCU

Mass Grave Localization Prediction With Geographical Information Systems In Guatemala And Future Impacts, Perla Santillan

Theses and Dissertations

Conducting physical searches for mass grave locations based on anecdotal evidence is a time consuming and resource intensive endeavor in circumstances that often pose a threat to personal safety. The development of tools and procedures to speed such searches can greatly reduce the risk involved, increase the number of individuals whose remains are recovered and identified; and, more importantly, reunite these remains with their loved ones to provide them with a proper burial. Geographic information systems (GIS) software, which can analyze and manipulate the spatial characteristics of known mass grave data, represents a powerful tool that can be used to ...


Predicting Student Success In Arcadia University’S Math Courses, Chutong Wu, Tong Zhu, Yijin Qiu 2020 Arcadia University

Predicting Student Success In Arcadia University’S Math Courses, Chutong Wu, Tong Zhu, Yijin Qiu

Capstone Showcase

This project examines the relative efficacy of Arcadia’s math placement test and math SAT scores in predicting student success, and explores whether SAT scores alone might suffice for certain courses.


Accuracy Of Avs Life Expectancy Reports, Ariya Aghababa 2020 The University of Akron

Accuracy Of Avs Life Expectancy Reports, Ariya Aghababa

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

Use insurance company data to predict the trends in life insurance life expectancy reports. Also, use the data to predict what impairments could potentially decrease or increase an insured's life expectancy based on reports created by various Actuaries at life settlement companies.


Forecasting Corn Yield With Machine Learning Ensembles, Mohsen Shahhosseini, Guiping Hu, Sotirios Archontoulis 2020 Iowa State University

Forecasting Corn Yield With Machine Learning Ensembles, Mohsen Shahhosseini, Guiping Hu, Sotirios Archontoulis

Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering Publications

The emerge of new technologies to synthesize and analyze big data with high-performance computing, has increased our capacity to more accurately predict crop yields. Recent research has shown that Machine learning (ML) can provide reasonable predictions, faster, and with higher flexibility compared to simulation crop modeling. The earlier the prediction during the growing season the better, but this has not been thoroughly investigated as previous studies considered all data available to predict yields. This paper provides a machine learning based framework to forecast corn yields in three US Corn Belt states (Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa) considering complete and partial in-season ...


Ai And Machine Learning Usage In Actuarial Science, Joanna Riley 2020 The University of Akron

Ai And Machine Learning Usage In Actuarial Science, Joanna Riley

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

Some people in the world work hard and do whatever it takes in order to get a job that they love. There are others that don’t care about their jobs and solely perform them in order to make money. So, there are individuals or groups that wouldn’t care if a machine or computer were to replace them in their job, but others would be devastated. The question for this paper is: Can actuaries be completely replaced by computers, or do we need the human mind in order to make proper decisions and judgements?

Key words and phrases: actuarial ...


Technological Software In Mathematics, Courtney Kish 2020 The University of Akron

Technological Software In Mathematics, Courtney Kish

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

Technology has been advancing significantly over the years. One area that has been affected is mathematics. Technological software has been developed that has allowed for mathematics to be done using software programs. For example, WebAssign allows students to complete online math homework and example practice problems, as well as watch videos to explain topics in math. However, like all things, this is not without downfalls. While this technology offers students access to online lectures and instant feedback, cheating and costly expenses also come with it.

In this research paper, I will discuss the benefits and shortcomings of different technological software ...


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