Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Scale Of Harm: Estimating The Prevalence Of Online Sexual Exploitation Of Children In The Philippines, Ben Brewster

SMU Human Trafficking Data Conference

No abstract provided.

Time Scale Separation In Life-Long Ovarian Follicles Population Dynamics Model, Romain Yvinec, Frédérique Clément, Guillaume Ballif

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Multi-Type Branching Processes In Time-Varying Environments, Arash Jamshidpey

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Modeling Human Temporal Eeg Responses To Vr Visual Stimuli, Richard R. Foster, Connor Delaney, Dean J. Krusienski, Cheng Ly

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

The Performance Of Arima And Arfima In Modelling The Exchange Rate Of Nigeria Currency To Other Currencies, Adewole Ayoade I.

Al-Bahir Journal for Engineering and Pure Sciences

Economic performance of a nation depends majorly on the stability of foreign exchange rate; the economic viability hangs on the exchange rate of local currencies against other currencies across the globe. Box – Jenkins Approach was employed to model the Naira exchange rate to other major currencies using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and The autoregressive fractional integral moving average (ARFIMA) models. This studies aimed on measuring forecast ability of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) (p,d,q) and autoregressive fractional integral moving average (ARFIMA) (p, fd, q) models for stationary type series that exhibit features of Long memory properties. Results indicate …

Significant Predictors Of Suicide Rates In The United States: A Multiple Regression Analysis, Alexa L. Darak, Gary Popoli

Undergraduate Research Journal for the Human Sciences

Inspired by Stack's (2021) research, this study investigated the influence of 19 variables on suicide rates across all 50 United States. The variables included political party, gun ownership, registered guns, religion, alcohol consumption, state safety, depression, marriage, divorce, domestic violence, race, mean elevation, and region. Regression analyses revealed that gun ownership significantly impacts suicide rates, with stricter firearm laws correlating with lower suicide rates. Other crucial contributors to suicide risk were alcohol consumption, domestic violence, marital status, divorce, mean elevation, and political party affiliation. The five most statistically significant predictor variables were gun ownership, divorce rates, percentage of White individuals, …

Calculations From On The Existence Of Periodic Traveling-Wave Solutions To Certain Systems Of Nonlinear, Dispersive Wave Equations, Jacob Daniels

Mathematics and Statistics Student Research and Class Projects

In the field of nonlinear waves, particular interest is given to periodic traveling-wave solutions of nonlinear, dispersive wave equations. This thesis aims to determine the existence of periodic traveling-wave solutions for several systems of water wave equations. These systems are the Schr¨odinger KdV-KdV, Schr¨odinger BBM-BBM, Schr¨odinger KdV-BBM, and Schr¨odinger BBM-KdV systems, and the abcd-system. In particular, it is shown that periodic traveling-wave solutions exist and are explicitly given in terms of cnoidal, the Jacobi elliptic function. Certain solitary-wave solutions are also established as a limiting case of the periodic traveling-wave solutions, that is, as the elliptic modulus approaches one.

An Improved Bayesian Pick-The-Winner (Ibpw) Design For Randomized Phase Ii Clinical Trials, Wanni Lei, Maosen Peng, Xi K. Zhou

COBRA Preprint Series

Phase II clinical trials play a pivotal role in drug development by screening a large number of drug candidates to identify those with promising preliminary efficacy for phase III testing. Trial designs that enable efficient decision-making with small sample sizes and early futility stopping while controlling for type I and II errors in hypothesis testing, such as Simon’s two-stage design, are preferred. Randomized multi-arm trials are increasingly used in phase II settings to overcome the limitations associated with using historical controls as the reference. However, how to effectively balance efficiency and accurate decision-making continues to be an important research topic. …

A Novel Correction For The Multivariate Ljung-Box Test, Minhao Huang

Computational and Data Sciences (PhD) Dissertations

This research introduces an analytical improvement to the Multivariate Ljung-Box test that addresses significant deviations of the original test from the nominal Type I error rates under almost all scenarios. Prior attempts to mitigate this issue have been directed at modification of the test statistics or correction of the test distribution to achieve precise results in finite samples. In previous studies, focused on designing corrections to the univariate Ljung-Box, a method that specifically adjusts the test rejection region has been the most successful of attaining the best Type I error rates. We adopt the same approach for the more complex, …

Factors Predictive Of The Development Of Surgical Site Infection In Thyroidectomy, A Replication Study Of Myssiorek (2018), Kaitlyn M. Kenig

Capstone Experience

The original study aimed to show that thyroidectomy does not result in surgical site infection (SSI) in most cases, and thus routine prescription of antibiotics is not necessary. The study looked to see what risk factors could predict the incidence of SSI. This would highlight those individuals who were at most risk of developing SSI, and then antibiotics would only be prescribed to these individuals instead of all or most individuals who undergo thyroidectomy.

This study used NSQIP data to look at incidence of SSI and look for risk factors that may be predictive of SSI. Only surgeries that were …

Using The History Of Statistics To Teach Introductory Statistics, Melissa Hansen

All Graduate Reports and Creative Projects, Fall 2023 to Present

While often taught in high school and required as part of a college degree, statistics classes are sometimes viewed by students as an obstacle rather than a support for their overall goals. One way to increase student engagement in a statistics course is to use the history of statistics. Within the literature review, the advantages to using the history of statistics are discussed as well as the more extensive research on using the history of mathematics in mathematics courses. Included are instructional strategies for using the context around the development of mathematical ideas in math classrooms which can be extended …

High-Dimensional Mediation Analysis Of Multi-Omics Data, Sunyi Chi

Dissertations & Theses (Open Access)

Environmental exposures such as cigarette smoking influence health outcomes through intermediate molecular phenotypes, such as the methylome, transcriptome, and metabolome. Mediation analysis is a useful tool for investigating the role of potentially high-dimensional intermediate phenotypes in the relationship between environmental exposures and health outcomes. Rapid development of high-throughput technologies have made mediation analysis of multi-omics data critical to gain groundbreaking insights into the biological mechanisms underlying the disease etiology. This dissertation aims to develop mediation analysis methods that utilize the enormous amount of multi-omics data in assessing mechanisms of disease etiology. It contains three projects where I propose advanced mediation …

Code For Care: Hypertension Prediction In Women Aged 18-39 Years, Kruti Sheth

Electronic Theses, Projects, and Dissertations

The longstanding prevalence of hypertension, often undiagnosed, poses significant risks of severe chronic and cardiovascular complications if left untreated. This study investigated the causes and underlying risks of hypertension in females aged between 18-39 years. The research questions were: (Q1.) What factors affect the occurrence of hypertension in females aged 18-39 years? (Q2.) What machine learning algorithms are suited for effectively predicting hypertension? (Q3.) How can SHAP values be leveraged to analyze the factors from model outputs? The findings are: (Q1.) Performing Feature selection using binary classification Logistic regression algorithm reveals an array of 30 most influential factors at an …

The Quantitative Analysis And Visualization Of Nfl Passing Routes, Sandeep Chitturi

Computer Science and Computer Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

The strategic planning of offensive passing plays in the NFL incorporates numerous variables, including defensive coverages, player positioning, historical data, etc. This project develops an application using an analytical framework and an interactive model to simulate and visualize an NFL offense's passing strategy under varying conditions. Using R-programming and data management, the model dynamically represents potential passing routes in response to different defensive schemes. The system architecture integrates data from historical NFL league years to generate quantified route scores through designed mathematical equations. This allows for the prediction of potential passing routes for offensive skill players in response to the …

Comparing North American Professional Sports League Season Formats Using Monte Carlo Simulation, Lathan Gregg

Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

Each NFL, NBA, and MLB season consists of a regular season, in which teams play a set number of scheduled games and a playoff, in which qualifying teams compete for a championship. At the conclusion of each season, teams are ranked based on their performance throughout the season. This study aims to investigate the ability of each league's season format to accurately rank teams using Monte Carlo simulation. Matches between two teams are simulated by using the team’s assigned strength ranks to calculate a winning probability for each team. The winning probabilities are simulated with different skill values, dictating how …

Information Based Approach For Detecting Change Points In Inverse Gaussian Model With Applications, Alexis Anne Wallace

Electronic Theses, Projects, and Dissertations

Change point analysis is a method used to estimate the time point at which a change in the mean or variance of data occurs. It is widely used as changes appear in various datasets such as the stock market, temperature, and quality control, allowing statisticians to take appropriate measures to mitigate financial losses, operational disruptions, or other adverse impacts. In this thesis, we develop a change point detection procedure in the Inverse Gaussian (IG) model using the Modified Information Criterion (MIC). The IG distribution, originating as the distribution of the first passage time of Brownian motion with positive drift, offers …

Cost-Risk Analysis Of The Ercot Region Using Modern Portfolio Theory, Megan Sickinger

Master's Theses

In this work, we study the use of modern portfolio theory in a cost-risk analysis of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). Based upon the risk-return concepts of modern portfolio theory, we develop an n-asset minimization problem to create a risk-cost frontier of portfolios of technologies within the ERCOT electricity region. The levelized cost of electricity for each technology in the region is a step in evaluating the expected cost of the portfolio, and the historical data of cost factors estimate the variance of cost for each technology. In addition, there are several constraints in our minimization problem to …

Exploring Optimal Design Of Experiments For Random Effects Models, Ryan C. Bushman

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Fall 2023 to Present

The majority of research in the field of optimal design of experiments has focused on producing designs for fixed effects models. The purpose of this thesis is to explore how the optimal design framework applies to nested random effects models. The object that is being optimized is the model information matrix. We explore the full derivation of the random effects information matrix to highlight the complexity of the problem and show how the optimization is a function of the model's parameters. In conjunction with this research, the ODVC (Optimal Design for Variance Components) package was built to provide tools that …

Exploring Application Of The Coordinate Exchange To Generate Optimal Designs Robust To Data Loss, Asher Hanson

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Fall 2023 to Present

The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the efficacy of the coordinate exchange (CEXCH) algorithm in the generation of robust optimal designs. The assessment involves a comparative analysis, wherein designs produced by the Point Exchange (PEXCH) Algorithm are employed as benchmarks for evaluating the efficiency of CEXCH designs. Three modified criteria, selected from the traditional alphabet criteria pool, are utilized to score each algorithm. To enhance the reliability of the comparative analysis, multiple rounds of validation are conducted, focusing on visual assessments, design scores, and criteria efficiencies. The findings from each round of validation contribute to a comprehensive …

On The Existence Of Periodic Traveling-Wave Solutions To Certain Systems Of Nonlinear, Dispersive Wave Equations, Jacob Daniels

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Fall 2023 to Present

A variety of physical phenomena can be modeled by systems of nonlinear, dispersive wave equations. Such examples include the propagation of a wave through a canal, deep ocean waves with small amplitude and long wavelength, and even the propagation of long-crested waves on the surface of lakes. An important task in the study of water wave equations is to determine whether a solution exists. This thesis aims to determine whether there exists solutions that both travel at a constant speed and are periodic for several systems of water wave equations. The work done in this thesis contributes to the subfields …