Understanding The Fundamentals Of Freight Markets Volatility,
2019
Singapore Management University
Understanding The Fundamentals Of Freight Markets Volatility, Kian Guan Lim, Nikos K. Nomikos, Nelson Yap
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We analyse empirically the drivers of freight market volatility. We use several macroeconomic and shipping-related factors that are known to affect the supply and demand for shipping and examine their impact on the term structure of freight options implied volatilities (IV). We find that the level of IVs is affected by the level of the spot rate, the slope of the forward curve, as well as by both demand and supply factors, especially the former. We demonstrate that the relation between the volatility of futures prices and the slope of the forward curve is non-monotonic and convex, that is, it …
Trust And Local Bias,
2019
Singapore Management University
Trust And Local Bias, Chi Shen Wei, Lei Zhang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper examines the effect of social trust on local bias. Our evidence suggests that institutional investors located in high-trust regions of the United States exhibit lower local bias. Moreover, we find that high-trust investors are better diversified, suggesting that trust helps accomplish greater diversification. The results are not due to firm, demographic, or local economic characteristics. Additional analysis reveals that the documented informational advantage in local holdings exists only in low-trust regions. We show that this finding is consistent with a trust explanation.
The Flash Crash: A Cautionary Tale About Highly Fragmented Markets,
2019
Singapore Management University
The Flash Crash: A Cautionary Tale About Highly Fragmented Markets, Albert J. Menkveld, Bart Zhou Yueshen
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
A breakdown of cross-market arbitrage activity could make markets more fragile and result in price crashes. We provide suggestive evidence for this novel channel based on a high-frequency analysis of the most salient crash in recent history: The Flash Crash. We further show that such an event can be extremely costly for a large seller trading in a particular venue as the seller effectively relies on local liquidity supply only. These findings highlight the vulnerability of today's highly fragmented markets.
Economic Provenance: The Financial Analysis Of Art Historical Records,
2019
New York University
Economic Provenance: The Financial Analysis Of Art Historical Records, Amy C. Whitaker
Journal of Contemporary Archival Studies
The Leo Castelli Gallery launched pivotal mid-twentieth-century artistic careers, including those of Jasper Johns and Robert Rauschenberg. Although well-studied for its artistic impact, the Castelli archives—as well as those of other gallery artists such as Frank Stella and early collectors such as Burton and Emily Hall Tremaine—include a curious trove of artists’ financial records and related correspondence. This paper argues that these records form an “economic provenance” that is important both to both art market analysis and art history. This economic context is sometimes overlooked because of the contested relationship between art and markets. In this context, the archive can …
Nonprofit Reputation And Bitcoin Use,
2019
Assistant Professor, Anderson College of Business, Regis University
Nonprofit Reputation And Bitcoin Use, Crystal A. Evans, Abigail B. Schneider
Journal of Ideology
In recent years, cryptocurrencies, digital assets used as mediums of exchange that use cryptography to secure the creation and exchange of the currency, have gained in popularity. One cryptocurrency in particular, Bitcoin, has received a considerable amount of attention in the media. As the general public’s awareness of Bitcoin increases, one must consider the impact that aligning a nonprofit with such a currency could have. The present research uses three studies to examine the impact that advertising the nonprofits’ alignment with Bitcoin has on perceived effectiveness as well as potential donors’ attitudes toward investing nonprofits’ assets in the currency. Results …
Show Me The (Value Of) Money!,
2019
Singapore Management University
Show Me The (Value Of) Money!, Singapore Management University
Perspectives@SMU
Plenty of adults are not financially literate. Teaching children early can make a big difference
Review Of The Promise And Peril Of Credit: What A Forgotten Legend About Jews And Finance Tells Us About The Making Of European Commercial Society,
2019
Chapman University
Review Of The Promise And Peril Of Credit: What A Forgotten Legend About Jews And Finance Tells Us About The Making Of European Commercial Society, Jared Rubin
Economics Faculty Articles and Research
A review of The Promise and Peril of Credit: What a Forgotten Legend about Jews and Finance Tells Us about the Making of European Commercial Society, by Francesca Trivellato, published by Princeton University Press.
Essays On New Keynesian Term Premium Model With Financial Risks,
2019
CUNY Graduate Center
Essays On New Keynesian Term Premium Model With Financial Risks, Weiguo Fu
Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects
This dissertation studies the modeling of U.S. Treasury (UST) yield curve term premia under the New Keynesian (NK) framework. Loosely speaking, term premium is the difference between a government bond’s yield for a specific tenor and the average of the expected short rates up to that tenor. The dissertation is divided into three chapters. The first chapter proposes a New Keynesianism-based macro-finance model estimated by a one-step full information maximum likelihood (FIML) method. The second chapter shows that the one-step FIML method may produce estimation biases, which result in biased expected short rates and term premia. The chapter then presents …
New Factor Structure Models And Idiosyncratic Volatility,
2019
CUNY Graduate Center
New Factor Structure Models And Idiosyncratic Volatility, Ossama Elhadary
Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects
In this dissertation, I propose new factor structures that are based on the Fama-French style factors but include additional locations like the industry groups and the exchanges where the stocks are traded. I show that the stock returns are clustered around the industry groups and the exchanges. Idiosyncratic volatility calculated using the new factor structure models tend to be smaller than those calculated using the traditional Fama-French model. By sorting portfolios using the idiosyncratic volatility computed using the new factor models, a trader can gain larger profits compared to sorting the portfolio using the traditionally calculated idiosyncratic volatility.
The Impact Of Local Broadband Coverage On U.S. Firms’ Information Environment,
2019
CUNY Graduate Center
The Impact Of Local Broadband Coverage On U.S. Firms’ Information Environment, Zhiyuan Tu
Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects
This study investigates the impact of local broadband coverage on the information environment of firms located in the United States. I hypothesize that more intensive local broadband coverage improves the overall quality of a firm’s information environment by allowing more locally generated firm-specific news to be more broadly disseminated via the Internet. I use the Federal Communication Commission (FCC)’s form 477 data to measure the intensity of local broadband coverage. I find that more intensive local broadband coverage near a firm is associated with a firm having smaller earnings surprises, and lower abnormal information asymmetry around quarterly earnings announcements. These …
Importance Of Subjective Financial Knowledge And Perceived Credit Score In Payday Loan Use,
2019
Minnesota State University, Mankato
Importance Of Subjective Financial Knowledge And Perceived Credit Score In Payday Loan Use, Jae Min Lee, Narang Park, Wookjae Heo
Consumer Sciences Faculty Publications
This study examined the factors associated with consumers’ decisions to use payday loans. Using a sample of 24,201 respondents from the 2015 National Financial Capability Study (NFCS), structural equation modeling was used to analyze the relationships among the variables. The results indicated that payday loan use was associated with a series of consumers’ socio-psychological factors, including financial knowledge, perceived credit score, credit-card payment problems, and having emergency funds. The findings suggested that, to improve borrowing decisions and industry practices, discussions about consumers’ payday loan use and its underlying repayment problems should encompass policy intervention and institutional attention, rather than focusing …
Analysis Of Credit Enhancement Of Financing Guarantee Company,
2019
Singapore Management University
Analysis Of Credit Enhancement Of Financing Guarantee Company, Tiewei Zhang
Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)
In China, the financing problem of SMEs has been concerned for a long time, but it has not been effectively solved. At present, the development of financing guarantee companies (FGCs) providing credit enhancement services for SMEs is facing severe challenges. Essentially, financing guarantee is a special kind of creditor’s right (debt investor’s rights). The essence of creditor's right is the seller position of put options. Because the return-risk structure of creditor's right is seriously asymmetric, debt investors should follow the prudent and conservative operating principle. The "5Ws" principle or "5Cs" principle of bank loan business is the embodiment of this …
Wti Crude Oil Option Implied Var And Cvar: An Empirical Application,
2019
Institute of Finance, Lugano
Wti Crude Oil Option Implied Var And Cvar: An Empirical Application, Giovanni Barone-Adesi, Marinela Adriana Finta, Chiara Legnazzi, Carlo Sala
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Using option market data we derive naturally forward-looking, non-parametric and model-free risk estimates, three desired characteristics hardly obtainable using historical returns. The option-implied measures are only based on the first derivative of the option price with respect to the strike price, bypassing the difficult task of estimating the tail of the return distribution. We estimate and backtest the 1%, 2.5%, and 5% WTI crude oil futures option-implied value at risk and conditional value at risk for the turbulent years 2011–2016 and for both tails of the distribution. Compared with risk estimations based on the filtered historical simulation methodology, our results …
Volatility Timing Under Low-Volatility Strategy,
2019
Singapore Management University
Volatility Timing Under Low-Volatility Strategy, Poh Ling Neo, Chyng Wen Tee
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
The authors devise a volatility timing strategy based on statistical tests on the slope of the volatility decile portfolio return profile. Superior performance is obtained, with a 30% increase in Sharpe ratio and an order of magnitude improvement on cumulated wealth. The profitability of the volatility timing strategy can be attributed to holding a diversified portfolio during bear markets, while holding a concentrated growth portfolio during bull markets.
Forecasting Realized Volatility Using A Nonnegative Semiparametric Model,
2019
JP Morgan
Forecasting Realized Volatility Using A Nonnegative Semiparametric Model, Anders Eriksson, Daniel P. A. Preve, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper introduces a parsimonious and yet flexible semiparametric model to forecast financial volatility. The new model extends a related linear nonnegative autoregressive model previously used in the volatility literature by way of a power transformation. It is semiparametric in the sense that the distributional and functional form of its error component is partially unspecified. The statistical properties of the model are discussed and a novel estimation method is proposed. Simulation studies validate the new method and suggest that it works reasonably well in finite samples. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of the proposed model is evaluated against a number of …
The World Predictive Power Of U.S. Equity Market Skewness Risk,
2019
Singapore Management University
The World Predictive Power Of U.S. Equity Market Skewness Risk, Jian Chen, Fuwei Jiang, Shuyu Xue, Jiaquan Yao
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This study investigates the cross-country impact of U.S. equity market skewness risk. We find that a large decrease in the U.S. market skewness significantly predicts higher future returns on international equity markets. The predictability remains significant after controlling for a set of U.S. and local forecasting variables. Furthermore, we find strong predictability in- an out-of-sample setting and the predictability delivers a large economic value. The U.S. market skewness also forecasts U.S. economic recessions and international market conditions, consistent with the international three-moment capital asset pricing model (three-moment CAPM) and the intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM).
Jpmorgan Chase London Whale H: Cross-Border Regulation,
2019
Yale School of Management
Jpmorgan Chase London Whale H: Cross-Border Regulation, Arwin G. Zeissler, Andrew Metrick
Journal of Financial Crises
As a global financial service provider, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is supervised by banking regulatory agencies in different countries. Bruno Iksil, the derivatives trader primarily responsible for the $6 billion trading loss in 2012, was based in JPM’s London office. This office was regulated both by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) of the United States (US) and by the Financial Services Authority (FSA), which served as the sole regulator of all financial services in the United Kingdom (UK). Banking regulators in the US and the UK have entered into agreements with one another to define basic parameters …
Jpmorgan Chase London Whale G: Hedging Versus Proprietary Trading,
2019
Yale School of Management
Jpmorgan Chase London Whale G: Hedging Versus Proprietary Trading, Arwin G. Zeissler, Andrew Metrick
Journal of Financial Crises
In December 2013, the primary United States financial regulatory agencies jointly adopted final rules to implement Section 619 of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, which is often referred to as the “Volcker Rule”. Section 619 prohibits banks from engaging in activities considered to be particularly risky, including proprietary trading and owning hedge funds or private equity funds. Banking regulators designed the final rule against proprietary trading in part to prevent losses like the $6 billion London Whale loss that took place in 2012 at JPMorgan Chase. Given the controversial nature of the Volcker Rule, it is …
Jpmorgan Chase London Whale F: Required Securities Disclosures,
2019
Yale School of Management
Jpmorgan Chase London Whale F: Required Securities Disclosures, Arwin G. Zeissler, Giulio Girardi, Andrew Metrick
Journal of Financial Crises
On April 13, 2012, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Chief Financial Officer Douglas Braunstein took part in a conference call to discuss the bank’s first quarter 2012 earnings. Coming just a week after media reports first questioned the risks taken by JPM derivatives trader Bruno Iksil, Braunstein made a series of assertions about the trades. On May 10, JPM finalized its first quarter financial results, which included some disclosures regarding Iksil’s trading that were substantially different from Braunstein’s statements of April 13. At issue is whether the regulatory filings on April 13 and May 10, as well as verbal comments by Braunstein …
Jpmorgan Chase London Whale E: Supervisory Oversight,
2019
Yale School of Management
Jpmorgan Chase London Whale E: Supervisory Oversight, Arwin G. Zeissler, Andrew Metrick
Journal of Financial Crises
As a diversified financial service provider and the largest United States bank holding company, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is supervised by multiple regulatory agencies. JPM’s commercial bank subsidiaries hold a national charter and therefore are regulated by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). Since the bank’s Chief Investment Office (CIO) invested the surplus deposits of JPM’s commercial bank units, the OCC was also CIO’s primary regulator. During the critical period from late January through March 2012, when CIO traders undertook the failed derivatives strategy that ultimately cost the bank $6 billion, JPM did not provide the OCC with …
