Long-Term Earnings Growth Forecasts, Limited Attention, And Return Predictability,
2010
University of Notre Dame
Long-Term Earnings Growth Forecasts, Limited Attention, And Return Predictability, Zhi Da, Mitchell Craig Warachka
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Long-term earnings expectations are critically important to stock price valuations. We identify relative optimism and relative pessimism in long-term analyst forecasts by comparing these forecasts with implied short-term earnings growth forecasts across rms within the same industry. Stocks with relatively optimistic and relatively pessimistic long-term analyst forecasts have negative and positive risk-adjusted returns, respectively. This return predictability depends critically on short-term forecasts since relative optimism and relative pessimism originate from the slow diffusion of information from short-term to long-term analyst forecasts. Our results indicate that market participants have limited attention regarding the long-term earnings implications of information.
List Prices, Sale Prices And Marketing Time: An Application To U.S. Housing Markets,
2010
The Ohio State University
List Prices, Sale Prices And Marketing Time: An Application To U.S. Housing Markets, Donald R. Haurin, Jessica L. Haurin, Taylor Nadauld, Anthony Sanders
Faculty Publications
Many goods are marketed after first stating a list price, with the expectation that the eventual sales price will differ. In this article, we first present a simple model of search behavior that includes the seller setting a list price. Holding constant the mean of the buyers’ distribution of potential offers for a good, we assume that the greater the list price, the slower the arrival rate of offers but the greater is the maximal offer. This trade-off determines the optimal list price, which is set simultaneously with the seller’s reservation price. Comparative statics are derived through a set of …
The Impact Of Employer Matching On Savings Plan Participation Under Automatic Enrollment,
2010
Harvard University
The Impact Of Employer Matching On Savings Plan Participation Under Automatic Enrollment, John Beshears, James J. Choi, David Laibson, Brigitte C. Madrian
Faculty Publications
Companies have used a variety of approaches to encourage participation in employer- sponsored savings plans. The most common approach, the provision of an employer matching contribution, is now offered by the vast majority of large fi rms (Profi t Sharing Council of America 2006). Even with a match, however, savings plan participation rates are often surprisingly low (Choi, Laibson, and Madrian 2005), and empirical studies of matching contributions’ effect on plan participation have uniformly found relatively small effects (Andrews 1992; Papke and Poterba 1995; Papke 1995; Bassett, Fleming, and Rodrigues 1998; Kusko, Poterba, and Wilcox 1998; Choi et al. 2002; …
Micro-Ipos: An Analysis Of The Small Corporate Offering Registration (Scor) Procedure With National Data,
2010
Brigham Young University - Provo
Micro-Ipos: An Analysis Of The Small Corporate Offering Registration (Scor) Procedure With National Data, James C. Brau, Gardner Gee
Faculty Publications
In this study we examine every Small Corporate Offering Registration available from the United States. Using 339 micro-IPOs from 33 states, we find support for the relevance of (1) offering marketing mechanisms and expenses; (2) geographic characteristics; (3) offering characteristics; (4) ownership and governance characteristics; (5) business characteristics; (6) firm marketing mechanisms; and (7) signaling factors.
The Desire To Acquire And Ipo Long-Run Underperformance,
2010
Brigham Young University - Provo
The Desire To Acquire And Ipo Long-Run Underperformance, James C. Brau, Robert B. Couch, Ninon K. Sutton
Faculty Publications
We analyze a sample of 4,795 IPOs that went public between 1985 and 2003 to determine the impact of acquisition activity on long-run stock performance. After controlling for relevant factors, we find that IPOs that acquire within a year of going public significantly underperform for three-year holding periods following the first year, whereas non-acquiring IPOs do not significantly underperform over this time frame. In addition, firms that wait for more than a year after the IPO to become an acquirer do not underperform. Our event- and calendar-time results suggest that the acquisition activity of newly public firms plays a previously …
Could Decision Trees Help Improve Farm Service Agency Lending Decisions?,
2010
University of Louisville
Could Decision Trees Help Improve Farm Service Agency Lending Decisions?, Benjamin P. Foster, Jozef Zurada, Douglas K. Barney
Faculty and Staff Scholarship
This study examines whether a statistically derived decision tree could serve as a means to improve U.S.A. Farm Service Agency lending decisions. The study is a substantial extension and reanalysis of an earlier work by Barney, Graves and Johnson, (1999). Results indicate that a decision tree could be a valuable tool for Farm Service Agency employees in their lending decisions. The decision tree provides as good or better predictive accuracy than neural networks and logistic regression models at reasonable cutoff levels of Type II to Type I costs of lending. The decision tree also meets the transparency criteria for Farm …
Strategic Financial Management: Evidence From Seasoned Equity Offerings,
2010
University of Rochester
Strategic Financial Management: Evidence From Seasoned Equity Offerings, Michael Barclay, Fangjian Fu, Clifford Smith
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Extant theories of capital structure assume myopic financial managers. So they have hard time to explain the financing behavior of seasoned equity offering (SEO) firms. In contrast with the pecking order theory, SEO firms typically are financially healthy companies with significant cash balances, low leverage, and unused debt capacity. At odds with the tradeoff theory, SEOs often move firms away from, rather than closer to, their target leverage ratios. SEOs appear to be driven by capital needs associated with large investment projects rather than by market timing considerations. Firms issue debt following the SEO to finance investment further and to …
Risk And System-Of-Systems: Toward A Unified Concept,
2010
Old Dominion University
Risk And System-Of-Systems: Toward A Unified Concept, C. Ariel Pinto, Michael K. Mcshane, Rani Kady
Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications
The scope of this paper is the survey of both fundamental and most recent publications in system-of-systems, business and insurance, as well as risk analysis, modeling, and management for the purpose of better describing the concept of risk in recognition of emergence and complexity which characterizes many systems within the concern of engineering and business managers. The ultimate goal is to provide engineering and business managers the necessary perspective on the concept of risk and in its management for the next generation of sustainable systems - including various descriptions of risk and discussion of the relevance of properties of system-of-systems …
The Premium, Breakeven, And Discount Exchange Rates Of The Mexican Peso In The El Paso Retail Sector,
2010
University of Texas at El Paso
The Premium, Breakeven, And Discount Exchange Rates Of The Mexican Peso In The El Paso Retail Sector, Raul Anton Munoz
Open Access Theses & Dissertations
This paper studies the exchange rates at which Mexican pesos are accepted by different retail sectors in El Paso, Texas. A random sample of 1,155 firms was surveyed to examine two aspects of reverse dollarization in the El Paso/Juarez border region. The first is to determine the percentage of retail businesses in El Paso that accept foreign currency in the form of Mexican pesos. The second is to calculate the effective exchange rate at which firms accept Mexican pesos. Out of 1,155 retail firms surveyed, 586 responses were obtained. The results of this investigation suggest that less than 14 percent …
