Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

Culture Of Countries And Country-Index Crash Risk, Jason Petri

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

Previously crash- risk studies have focused on assessing at the firm level the likelihood of a firm’s equity to crash (a rapid decline in value), apart from the dynamics of its respective country-level market. In this study, however, I examine the determinants of an overall countrylevel equity crash apart from the dynamics of the global market. I will argue that this is a very different focus of analysis that will provide valuable information to both investors and policy makers. Expansion of credit and subsequent equity-market bubbles and crashes are of particular concern to foreign direct investors (FDI), as country-level equity …

Cross-Industry Information Sharing And Analyst Performance, Allen Huang, An-Ping Lin, Amy Zang

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

This study shows that analyst research benefits from the sharing of information about economically connected industries among colleagues. Measuring the intensity of potential information sharing with the level of economic connection between an analyst’s industry and her colleagues’ industries, we find that it is positively correlated with an analyst’s earnings forecast accuracy, stock recommendation profitability, coverage breadth, and report frequency after controlling for other determinants including broker or analyst fixed effects. We also find that analysts are more likely to issue reports when highly connected colleagues produce information. We show that sharing information with colleagues covering downstream (upstream) industries benefits …

Do Physician Incentives Increase Patient Medication Adherence?, Edward Kong, John Beshears, David Laibson, Brigitte C. Madrian, Kevin Volpp, George Loewenstein, Jonathan Kolstad, James J. Choi

Faculty Publications

Objective: To test the effectiveness of physician incentives for increasing patient medication adherence in three drug classes: diabetes medication, antihypertensives, and statins.

Data Sources: Pharmacy and medical claims from a large Medicare Advantage Prescription Drug Plan from January 2011 to December 2012.

Study Design: We conducted a randomized experiment (911 primary care practices and 8,935 nonadherent patients) to test the effect of paying physicians for increasing patient medication adherence in three drug classes: diabetes medication, antihypertensives, and statins. We measured patients’ medication adherence for 18 (6) months before (after) the intervention.

Data collection/extraction methods: We obtained data directly from the …

The Narrowness Of Shorting Profitability, Karl B. Diether

Faculty Publications

I examine the persistence in stock level short-selling profitability by using contract level shorting data. I do find that short-sellers are profitable on average using an approach that takes into account the exact timing of the opening and closing of short positions. But I also find that this profitability is driven by the set of stocks for which short-sellers previously had strongly profitable outcomes. I find that if short-selling contracts for a given stock are profitable in the last six months that on average short sellers continue to make profitable trades in that stock in the future. For stocks with …

Financial Costs Of Judicial Inexperience: Evidence From Corporate Bankruptcies, Benjamin Iverson, Joshua Madsen, Wei Wang, Qiping Xu

Faculty Publications

Exploiting the random assignment of judges to corporate bankruptcy filings, we estimate financial costs of judicial inexperience. Despite new judges’ prior legal experience, formal education, and rigorous hiring process, their public Chapter 11 cases spend 19% more time in bankruptcy, realize 31% higher legal and professional fees, and 21% lower creditor recovery rates. Examining possible mechanisms, we find that new judges take longer to rule on motions and cases assigned to these judges file more plans of reorganization. Conservative estimates suggest that minor policy adjustments could increase creditor recoveries by approximately $16.8 billion for the public firms in our sample.

Asia Reits Interdependence And The Impact Of Covid-19 Pandemic, Boonchai Asawapiched

Chulalongkorn University Theses and Dissertations (Chula ETD)

This study investigates Asia REIT interdependence and the impact of COVID-19 pandemic. The data of six major REIT markets in Asia (Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Thailand, Malaysia, and Taiwan) have been applied with Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test, impulse response functions, and variance decomposition. In addition, U.S. REIT is incorporated to emphasis the its impact on Asia markets. The results indicate market integration at long-run period as REIT performance is closely related to the direct real estate market whereas REIT is affected by shocks and noise like stock in short-run. Moreover, it is found that Asia developed markets (Japan, …

Capital Structure Volatility And Dividend Policy: Evidence From Thai Listed Firms, Thippapha Glinlek

Chulalongkorn University Theses and Dissertations (Chula ETD)

This study attempts to identify the factors affecting capital structure volatility using firm-specific on a sample of listed Thai firms from 2001 – 2020. This study documents that firm-specific factors impact capital structure volatility. Firms with higher growth opportunities, more profitable and have greater change in their assets tend to vary their capital structure more. In the second part, after determining the factors influencing capital structure volatility. This study provides the evidence of capital structure volatility (CSV) on dividend policies. And find that a high level of CSV is negatively associated with dividend policies. This paper also examines the variation …

Clayton Copula Value-At-Risk In Crisis And The Gold Optimal Weight: Evidence In Thailand, Pimsuda Tunyalagsanakul

Chulalongkorn University Theses and Dissertations (Chula ETD)

In recent days, investors are facing higher market risk due to the pandemic situation, but this is not the only time, investors also experienced similar risk during the Global Financial Crisis in 2007. We are interested in the tool to accurately estimate the market risk and ways to keep the portfolio maintaining the good performance in the extreme situation. This paper particularly investigates the Value-at-risk (VaR), which is one of the simplest and helpful tools to estimate market risk. By using data of SET50 and Thai Baht Gold, this paper demonstrates the best way to compute VaR among the various …

Effects Of Abnormal Trading Volume In The Stock Exchange Of Thailand, Chatchanun Kallayasiri

Chulalongkorn University Theses and Dissertations (Chula ETD)

This research aims to investigate the opportunity to exploit the abnormal returns follow the abnormal trading volume events for the stock listed in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) from 2010 to 2019. The result suggested that investors could use abnormal trading volume as a signal to invest and obtain extra-profit by holding the stock for a certain period of time. The result also indicated that there was evidence of trading volume’s information content that could be used to implement the zero-investment portfolio strategy which trades based on trading volume. The strategy suggested investors to take a long position in …

Return Predictability Of Cape Versus Pe, A Case Of Thai Stock Exchange Market, Theerapat Muenpakdee

Chulalongkorn University Theses and Dissertations (Chula ETD)

No abstract provided.

Determining The Tracking Error And Value-At-Risk Of An Active Portfolio When Combined With A Passive Portfolio With Value-At-Risk Constraint, Nuttawoot Ladee

Chulalongkorn University Theses and Dissertations (Chula ETD)

When an asset manager manages a portfolio, he usually imposes a TE or a VaR limit on his portfolio to control portfolio risks. However, a portfolio may be divided into different portions. In our research, we consider a portfolio that consists of an active portion and a passive portion. Having a VaR budget of an entire portfolio, we propose methods to determine TE and VaR limit on the active portfolio and illustrate them by using real data. In the empirical part, some problems can occur when we relax certain theoretical assumptions such as (1) stocks in an investment universe can …

Double Bottom Pattern Recognition For Trading Strategy, Chusana Nuntanart

Chulalongkorn University Theses and Dissertations (Chula ETD)

We utilize the Double bottom pattern, which is a common and the most easily recognized reversal pattern in the technical analysis approach, to seek the existence of abnormal returns from 1 Jan 2009 to 31 Dec 2019. The general event study methodology was used to statistically test for the existence of abnormal returns from 611 stocks in SET. We concluded that there was an existence of abnormal return from trading with the Double bottom pattern strategy. This led to the conclusion that the Thai stock market might be not as informationally efficient as academics have conjectured.

Sizing Up Corporate Restructuring In The Covid Crisis, Robin Greenwood, Benjamin Iverson, David Thesmar

Faculty Publications

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the financial and legal system will need to deal with a surge of financial distress in the business sector. Some firms will be able to survive, while others will face bankruptcy and thus need to be liquidated or reorganized. Many surviving firms will need to be downsized or acquired. In normal times, this triage is supported by the court system, banks, and financial markets. The goal of this paper is to size up the coming surge of financial distress, list the challenges it presents in the current environment, and analyze potential policy solutions. …

A Pedagogical Model For Teaching Data Analytics In An Introductory Information Systems Python Course, Heber C. Brau, James C. Brau, Mark Keith

Faculty Publications

In this paper we answer the call of Sheppard (2012) and Brunner & Kim (2016) and present a model for teaching data analytics in an introductory information systems class using the Python programming language. The pedagogy follows an active-learning strategy in which students are assumed to have no statistical or Python programming training prior to class. The learning outcomes include: 1) Data: write code to import and manipulate data; 2) Visualization: write code to generate useful and theoretically sound data visualizations; 3) Feature Engineering: write code to generate, condense, or recombine variables (i.e., "features") of any type (numeric, categorical, ordinal, …

Budget Habits Of College Students: An Empirical Analysis Of Expectations And Realizations, James C. Brau, Marshall Ringwood, Jessica West

Faculty Publications

Using a sample of more than 500 college students from a large, private university, this study seeks to analyze spending expectations of students, their realized habits, and the dispersion between the two. We first ask the students to project what they think their monthly budget will be throughout the semester. We then ask them to track their expenses for three months. The students do the same for income they receive. The students then report their actual spending habits and answer various questions related to their demography, family, and life experience. We use simple univariate correlation methods to explain factors that …

News Shocks And Business Cycle In Emerging Markets, Jakkraphan Kangwanvibul

Chulalongkorn University Theses and Dissertations (Chula ETD)

This study examines news shocks in theoretical real-business-cycle model in the aspect of emerging-market economy. Many features in emerging-market business cycles, such as consumption volatility that exceeds income volatility, sudden stop pattern in capital flows and strongly countercyclical current account to income, distinguish itself from a developed small opened economy, and in this study, it also differentiates itself from previous works in the literature by studying in the aspect of business cycles in emerging markets. The study uses simulation method, developing on real-business-cycle theory to generate artificial business cycle moments and impulse response function. For the result, it considers news …

Accruals And Volatility In A Real Options-Based Investment Approach: Evidence From Thai Market, Chayaporn Chuenurajit

Chulalongkorn University Theses and Dissertations (Chula ETD)

This study investigates the relationship between year-ahead net working capital accruals as a proxy of investment behavior and expected volatility during the period of 2009 to 2018 of listed non-financial firms in Thailand. I apply a real options-based investment framework to view accruals as a result of investment decision and investigate the impact of firm’s expected volatility. The results show that firms with higher expected volatility have lower level of year-ahead accruals which is consistent with Grenadier and Malenko (2010). Moreover, this study also indicates that high expected volatility period induces distressed firms to invest because they have opportunity to …

Analysts’ Consensus And Predictability Of Forward P/E Ratios, Thanakorn Petkajee

Chulalongkorn University Theses and Dissertations (Chula ETD)

Analysts play a crucial role in providing some important investment data, such as firms’ performance analysis, target prices, the forward P/E ratios, and so on, to investors. This special project studies the impact of analysts’ consensus on predictability of the stocks listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand. Two models of analysts’ forecast error are proposed and used as a proxy for predictability in the study. The first model of analysts’ forecast error, ln(AFE), is computed from the natural logarithm of the squared error in a median forecast of one year ahead, i.e. (Actual next 12M EPS – median forecast …

Arbitrage Profit From Pairwise Correlation: Evidence From Thailand, Salinporn Dachasiriprapha

Chulalongkorn University Theses and Dissertations (Chula ETD)

This paper aims to examine the usefulness of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation in the aspect of pair trade. Since one of the challenges in the pair trading is pair formation, this research would like to fulfill and find a new method for pair formation. Also, not only find the effective way to form pair we also examine whether this strategy can generate an abnormal return by constructs the portfolio where short one stock and long another one, by this investor can enjoy a 2-way price spread. The finding in this suggests that first by using Dynamic Conditional Correlation to form …

Could Morningstar Sustainability Rating Be An Indicator For Downside Protection?, Purisa Ruengsrichaiya

Chulalongkorn University Theses and Dissertations (Chula ETD)

This study investigates whether the Morningstar Sustainability Rating indicates the downside protection for the 2018 Global stock market downturn and 2020 Stock market crash by using daily time-series analysis and investigate whether fund characteristics have an effect on performance of each Morningstar Sustainability Rating by using a panel data analysis at a quarterly frequency for the active equity mutual fund in the US market. This paper finds the neutral performance in every group of ratings in any market period according to the neutral alpha or abnormal return and the fund characteristics influence the fund performance pattern which can observe that …