Macroeconomics Commons^™

Synthetic Statocracy - Pakistan’S Self-Created Inferno: Examining The Causes And Consequences Of Military Dominance In Pakistan, Umer Lakhani

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the history of military rule in Pakistan. Applying the framework of Johannes Gerschewski in The Three Pillars of Stability: Legitimation, Repression and Co-Optation in Autocratic Regimes, this paper looks to explain how military rulers who presided over the three periods of military rule in Pakistan consolidated and maintained their power, as well as the effects that these periods of rule had on Pakistani society. This paper will also supplement Gerschewski’s general framework by applying the findings of various established authors who have been published extensively on Pakistan’s political history, economy and relationship with the military. Such authors …

Essays On The Labor Market Consequences Of Economic Uncertainty, Emographics, And Oil Price Shocks, Linli Zhao

Theses and Dissertations--Economics

This dissertation explores how economic uncertainty and oil price shocks influence the U.S. labor market, focusing on the roles of age distributions, manufacturing characteristics, and labor skills. Chapter One investigates how uncertainty and age distribution affect employment volatility across U.S. states using data from 2000 Q1 to 2017 Q4. The findings show that states with a larger share of prime-aged workers experience lower employment volatility in the face of economic uncertainty. Chapter Two examines how global oil shocks influence manufacturing job flows, drawing on data from the Annual Survey of Manufactures and the Census of Manufacturers between 1980 Q3 and …

Civilian Manufacturing And National Defense: Strategic Planning For Globalization's Challenges, Izeck Kohler

Graduate Theses/Dissertations

This thesis examines the interconnection between civilian manufacturing and national defense within the context of globalization. The study aims to identify the challenges faced by the United States in maintaining its manufacturing capabilities and to propose strategic solutions to address these challenges. Through a comprehensive analysis of historical data, case studies, and policy recommendations, the research highlights the critical role of specialized and process manufacturing sectors towards national defense. The findings suggest that the creation of a federal executive department, strategic investment, diversification, policy re-evaluation, and collaborating with allies are essential for sustaining national defense capabilities. The study concludes with …

Migration And Youth Unemployment In Africa: Implications For The African Continental Free Trade Area (Afcfta), S.U.R Aliyu, Afees Adebare Salisu, Oyeyemi Kale

Journal of African Trade

This research explores the impact of migration within Africa on youth unemployment. The study makes two sig nificant contributions to existing literature. First, it investigates how intra-African migration can potentially support intra-African trade to enhance productivity and reduce youth unemployment. Second, it estimates the effects of intra African migration on male and female youth unemployment. The research methodology comprises using a two-level estimation involving the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) technique and a Two-Stage Least Squares approach addressing endogeneity bias. Furthermore, a Negative Binomial Maximum Likelihood estimator was utilized to test the model's robustness. The results indicate that higher per …

Simplified Regional-National Dsge Models For U.S. State-Level Analysis, Michael Telkamp

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This thesis develops a series of simplified Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model variants to analyze macroeconomic dynamics at the U.S. state level. Using South Dakota as a case study, I extend the Smets and Wouters (2007) mediumscale framework by implementing state-specific output, labor, consumption, investment, and wages into a dual-economy structure, where the state is modeled as a closed economy influenced by national-level shocks. The models are estimated using Bayesian techniques on quarterly data from 2007 - 2020. Model performance is evaluated through impulse response functions and variance decompositions. A key result is that South Dakota exhibits firm habit …

Modeling Inflation Expectations In Forward-Looking Interest Rate And Money Growth Rules, Zhengyang Chen, Victor J. Valcarcel

Faculty Publications

We propose a novel approach that directly embeds rational expectations (RE) into a low-dimensional structural vector autoregression (SVAR) without the need for any mapping to a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Beginning from a fully specified “consensus” structural model, we establish an instrumental variable procedure internal to the SVAR to obtain RE-consistent structural responses to identified monetary policy shocks. Our RE-SVAR framework facilitates a comparison across two alternative monetary policy indicators that accommodate long horizons in the formation of inflation expectations in the policy rule. We construct clouds of responses of inflation and economic activity to monetary …

High ‘Steaks’: Does Lone Star Tick-Induced Red Meat Allergy Reduce Cardiovascular Disease-Related Hospitalizations?, Raj Parekh

CMC Senior Theses

In this thesis, I investigate the relationships between Lone Star Tick-induced Alpha-Gal Syndrome (AGS), red meat consumption, and cardiovascular health outcomes within New York State's 62 counties from 2012 to 2021. The analysis examines whether AGS, which forces individuals to reduce red meat consumption, serves as a natural experiment in understanding dietary impacts on cardiovascular disease (CVD). Leveraging panel data, I utilize Fixed Effects (FE) and Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) regression frameworks to disentangle the relationships between red meat expenditure, meat prices, Lone Star Tick prevalence, and health outcomes such as CVD, stroke, coronary heart disease, and heart attack hospitalization …

China’S Economic Slowdown: How Does It Affect New Zealand’S Economy?, Haven Qin

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the impact of China’s economic slowdown on New Zealand’s economy, focusing on sector-specific linkages across real estate, the stock market, exports, and import prices. As a small open economy, New Zealand’s deep integration with global markets makes it particularly vulnerable to external shocks from its largest trading partner. Employing OLS regression models and monthly economic data, this study reveals the nuanced pathways through which China’s economic conditions influence New Zealand. Key findings include the sensitivity of New Zealand’s housing market to Chinese property investments and Chinese stock market performance, the influence of Chinese financial market performance on …

When Consumers See It Coming: How Anticipation Affects The Domestic Cost Of Tariffs, Pierce D. Sanderson

CMC Senior Theses

Tariffs implemented by President Trump in 2018 were unexpected and significant, incurring large costs to U.S. consumers. This study examines the effect of tariff anticipation on price, quantity, and value effect on imports in the United States. Specifically, it focuses on tariffs implemented during Obama’s second term in office from 2012 to 2016 on the automotive, technology, and manufacturing industries. The findings present a significant divergence from the literature on the effects of 2018 tariffs, finding a near full pass-through of tariffs to foreign exporter prices rather than U.S. consumers. Specifically, a one percent increase in tariffs resulted in a …

The Uncertain Promise Of Foreign Bank Entry: Institutional Quality Effects On The Foreign Bank–Financial Inclusion Nexus, Jason Dedman

CMC Senior Theses

Despite the precipitous rise in foreign bank presence due to ever increasing financial globalization, the literature on the nexus between foreign banks and financial inclusion remains critically underdeveloped. This paper revisits the relationship between foreign bank presence and financial inclusion in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs), extending the methodology of Gopalan and Rajan (2018) by integrating updated ownership data from Panizza (2024) and introducing institutional quality as a moderating variable. Employing both fixed effects and system generalized method of moments on a panel dataset of 128 EMDEs, this study finds that foreign bank presence has a far more ambiguous effect …

Climate Change And Ski Resort Ownership Consolidation, Gabriel Yang

CMC Senior Theses

Based on a collected dataset of ski resort ownership records and localized climate data spanning 1920-2020, I analyze how environmental volatility affects firm-level outcomes. Using multinomial logit regression models, I examine whether changes in snowfall, precipitation, and temperature are associated with higher probabilities of acquisition, particularly by large conglomerates. Preliminary results suggest that climate volatility, specifically around minimum and maximum temperature, is becoming increasingly important in affecting ownership transfers. Resorts with higher volatility in warm-day temperatures are less likely to be acquired by both conglomerates and non-conglomerates, while cold volatility has become less important over time as snowmaking capabilities are …

The Counter-Cyclicality Of Earnings Management: Evidence Through 2024, William J. Hall

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and earnings management, extending the analysis of Hillegeist and Lin (2019) using updated data through 2024. Based on 16,635 firm-quarter observations, my study affirms the results found in prior literature and confirms that there is a negative association between the change in GDP and the direction of firms’ earnings management behavior, indicating that earnings management is counter-cyclical. My study also finds that firms manage earnings asymmetrically based on the current macroeconomic state, with firms managing earnings more in economic downturns and less in expansions. My findings suggest that despite major macroeconomic and …

Maximum Trimmed Likelihood Estimation For Discrete Multivariate Vasicek Processes, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Michael Pokojovy, Andrews T. Anum, Ebenezer Nkum

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

The multivariate Vasicek model is commonly used to capture mean-reverting dynamics typical for short rates, asset price stochastic log-volatilities, etc. Reparametrizing the discretized problem as a VAR(1) model, the parameters are oftentimes estimated using the multivariate least squares (MLS) method, which can be susceptible to outliers. To account for potential model violations, a maximum trimmed likelihood estimation (MTLE) approach is utilized to derive a system of nonlinear estimating equations, and an iterative procedure is developed to solve the latter. In addition to robustness, our new technique allows for reliable recovery of the long-term mean, unlike existing methodologies. A set of …

Total Factor Productivity Industri Mikro Dan Kecil Di Kawasan Timur Indonesia, Marella Dea Manganti, Budyanra Budyanra

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

The Micro and Small Industries (MSIs) sector, part of non-oil and gas processing industry, is a key driver of the Indonesia’s economy. However, in Eastern Indonesia (EI), the number of industries and workers in the MSIs sector does not match the level of output, unlike in Western Indonesia, where the industry is more stable and aligned. This difference is mainly due to variations in technological progress, known as Total Factor Productivity (TFP). This study analyzes TFP in the MSIs sector across provinces in EI from 2013 to 2022 using panel data regression. Results show that South Sulawesi has the highest …

Three Essays On The Interaction Between Macroeconomics, Money, And Government Bonds, Zejun Jiang

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

This dissertation, ''Essays on the Interaction between Macroeconomics, Money, and Government Bonds,” has three chapters that study how macroeconomics (e.g., inflation), government bonds, and money interact with each other. It provides insights into how households make optimal maturity choices in government bonds, how households own different types of government bond assets, and how money growth can help understand the cross-country inflation after COVID-19.

The first chapter develops an intertemporal portfolio choice model to investigate the optimal household portfolio choice for government bonds across maturities. The U.S. Treasury data displays a higher holding share of long-term government bonds. Adding uncertain labor …

External Financing, Governance, And Infrastructure Development: Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa, Afees Oluwashina Noah, Oladipo Olalekan David

CSID Journal of Infrastructure Development

Infrastructure development in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) requires diversified financing strategies to address a significant funding shortfall that cannot be met by domestic resources alone. This research evaluates the contributions of external financing—namely Official Development Assistance (ODA), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and Private Participation in Infrastructure (PPI)—in complementing domestic efforts to advance infrastructure in SSA. It examines their influence, alongside governance, on the development of physical and social infrastructure components. Employing methodologies such as Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE) and System Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM) across 43 SSA economies from 2000 to 2022, the analysis reveals that FDI substantially enhances physical …

Effects Of Monetary Policy On Economic Growth: Evidence From Some Developing And Developed Economies, Collins Anosike

Journal of Global Awareness

The study examined the effects of monetary policy on the economic growth of some developing and developed economies. This study selected 33 countries grouped into 11 each as first-group, second-group, and third-group countries and showed how monetary policy has influenced their economic growth in the past 40 years, capturing the economic growth performances before and after the global financial crisis. This study is unique because it captures a broader range of countries compared to previous studies, uses updated data, and shows how monetary policy is transmitted through bank lending and financial intermediation. Furthermore, we use panel data and employ fixed …

The Impact Of Technological Change On Achieving Sustainable Development: Panel Data Analysis On Emerging Countries (2004-2024), Mayar Walid Al, Ahmed Tarek Ta

Future Journal of Social Science

This study examines the impact of technological change on sustainable development in five emerging economies—Egypt, China, Brazil, India, and Turkey—over the period from 2004 to 2024 (World Bank, 2020; ITU, 2022). It seeks to understand how advancements in information and communication technologies, renewable energy, and manufacturing processes shape economic, social, and environmental sustainability (Geels et al., 2017; UNEP, 2021). Using panel data analysis, the research quantifies the relationship between technological indicators, such as ICT penetration and renewable energy adoption, and sustainable development outcomes, including GDP growth, environmental health, and social inclusion (Sadorsky, 2010; Shahbaz et al., 2016).

The findings reveal …

Empowering Egyptian Women Through Social Media: A Comparative Analysis Of Economic Sustainability Campaigns By Banks On Facebook, Dr. Noura Eissa

Future Journal of Social Science

This comparative analytical study examines how Egyptian banks use Facebook to promote women’s economic empowerment by bridging between the disciples of economics, social media marketing, and gender studies. Media messages can substantially influence societal norms and perceptions of women's economic empowerment, leading them to open bank accounts and access services such as loans, credit cards, and online banking. The two banks under study are Banque Misr, a leading state-owned bank, and Commercial International Bank, which has international affiliations. The study employs a content analysis to evaluate Facebook messages published by these banks targeting women by exploring the appeals used, the …

Revealing The Dual Dynamics: Transient And Persistent Efficiencies Of The Indonesian Provincial Economies, Mohammad Zeqi Yasin, Fichrie Fachrowi Adli

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

We examine the decomposition of technical efficiency components into transient and persistent horizons applied to the 33 provincial economies in Indonesia. Focusing on the post-decentralization era in 2002–2022, we employ Stochastic Frontier Analysis to gauge efficiency dynamics for time-variant and time-invariant evolution. We reveal that the persistent inefficiencies outweigh transient ones, implying the persistent inefficient behavior of Indonesian provinces. We also capture that East Nusa Tenggara and several provinces in Eastern Indonesia show the most lagged-behind in terms of persistent inefficiency severity, suggesting necessity of structural changes through more strategic and specific development models beyond mere heterogeneous input reallocation.