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Covid-19 And Its Impact On Multinational Enterprises: A Modified Value At Risk Approach, Kashi Khazeh, Leonard Arvi, Robert C. Winder 2024 Salisbury University

Covid-19 And Its Impact On Multinational Enterprises: A Modified Value At Risk Approach, Kashi Khazeh, Leonard Arvi, Robert C. Winder

Journal of Global Business Insights

Multinational enterprises (MNEs) operating across different currencies are exposed to exchange rate risk. They may utilize a variety of tools to mitigate that risk. While there are different types of exchange rate risk, this study focuses specifically on the ongoing exposure of cash flow transactions denominated in the currencies of seven different developed countries. Since other types of risk (i.e., economic and translation) are evaluated based on yearly results, they are not considered in this study. The modified value-at-risk (MVaR) model is employed to estimate the maximum one-period losses during the eighteen months before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic …


Concentrated Liquidity In Uniswap V3: A New Strategy To Optimize The Capital Bear Market, Francesco Spinoglio 2024 ESADE

Concentrated Liquidity In Uniswap V3: A New Strategy To Optimize The Capital Bear Market, Francesco Spinoglio

Journal of New Finance

This article aims to offer a new vision on concentrated liquidity in Uniswap V3 and how we can effectively optimize liquidity thanks to the new tools provided by the DeFi ecosystem. Since the concept of concentrated liquidity first appeared in 2021 with Uniswap V3, new tools have been emerging to improve the security of smart contracts and offer better incentives to liquidity providers. This paper aims to propose a liquidity strategy concentrated in DeFi in order to draw additional liquidity in times of quantitative tightening and high interest rates, while trying to optimize the choice of the range to mitigate …


Late-Arriving Votes And Electoral Fraud: A Natural Experiment And Regression Discontinuity Evidence From Bolivia, Diego Escobari, Gary A. Hoover 2024 The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley

Late-Arriving Votes And Electoral Fraud: A Natural Experiment And Regression Discontinuity Evidence From Bolivia, Diego Escobari, Gary A. Hoover

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper uses a unique data set and a natural experiment to test if electoral fraud can exist in late-arriving votes. On the night of the 2019 Bolivian elections, the official vote counting system that was expected to publish the results real-time, suddenly stopped. When it resumed, the results had flipped. We estimate several difference-in-differences specifications using a 2016 referendum and the votes of other political parties. We find that the extent of the fraud is 2.51% of the valid votes, sufficient to change the outcome of the election. Our results are robust to polling-station-level shocks common across 2019 and …


Hubris Or Talent? Estimating The Role Of Overconfidence In Chinese Households’ Investment Decisions, Jing Xu, Maroula Khraiche, Xi Mao, Xuan Wang 2024 The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley

Hubris Or Talent? Estimating The Role Of Overconfidence In Chinese Households’ Investment Decisions, Jing Xu, Maroula Khraiche, Xi Mao, Xuan Wang

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications and Presentations

We document the extent to which overconfidence in one’s financial literacy (FL overconfidence) plays a role in households’ reported financial risk aversion and their actual investment behavior, using data from the China Household Finance Survey. We measure FL overconfidence by estimating the gap between people’s self-reported financial literacy and their objectively measured financial knowledge. Our results indicate that FL overconfidence is negatively associated with self-reported financial risk aversion. Additionally, FL overconfidence is positively associated with the likelihood of having a brokerage account, holding risky financial instruments (other than just stock), and a proportion of assets allocated towards risky assets. We …


Optimal Nonparametric Range-Based Volatility Estimation, Tim BOLLERSLEV, Jia LI, Qiyuan LI 2024 Duke University

Optimal Nonparametric Range-Based Volatility Estimation, Tim Bollerslev, Jia Li, Qiyuan Li

Research Collection School Of Economics

We present a general framework for optimal nonparametric spot volatility estimation based on intraday range data, comprised of the first, highest, lowest, and last price over a given time-interval. We rely on a decision-theoretic approach together with a coupling-type argument to directly tailor the form of the nonparametric estimator to the specific volatility measure of interest and relevant loss function. The resulting new optimal estimators offer substantial efficiency gains compared to existing commonly used range-based procedures.


The Estimation Of Production Functions With Monetary Values, Jesus Felipe, John McCombie, Aashish Mehta 2024 De La Salle University, Manila

The Estimation Of Production Functions With Monetary Values, Jesus Felipe, John Mccombie, Aashish Mehta

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

For decades, the literature on the estimation of production functions has focused on the elimination of endogeneity biases through different estimation procedures to obtain the correct factor elasticities and other relevant parameters. Theoretical discussions of the problem correctly assume that production functions are relationships among physical inputs and output. However, in practice, they are most often estimated using deflated monetary values for output (value added or gross output) and capital. This introduces two additional problems—an errors-invariables problem, and a tendency to recover the factor shares in value added instead of their elasticities. The latter problem derives from the fact that …


Developing Countries And External Debt: What Is Wrong?, Jesus Felipe, Jose Antonio Perez Montiel 2024 De La Salle University, Manila

Developing Countries And External Debt: What Is Wrong?, Jesus Felipe, Jose Antonio Perez Montiel

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

LAST DECEMBER, the World Bank published its annual report on international debt (https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/debt-statistics/idr/products). The report indicates that, in 2022, the developing countries spent $443 billion on debt-service repayment (principal plus interest) of their external public and publicly guaranteed debt, 5% more than in 2021. These payments are expected to rise in 2023 and 2024 due to the increase in interest rates. The report indicates that debt levels and high interest rates have set many countries on a path to crisis.


Robust Testing For Explosive Behavior With Strongly Dependent Errors, Yui Lim LUI, Peter C. B. PHILLIPS, Jun YU 2024 Singapore Management University

Robust Testing For Explosive Behavior With Strongly Dependent Errors, Yui Lim Lui, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

A heteroskedasticity-autocorrelation robust (HAR) test statistic is proposed to test for the presence of explosive roots in financial or real asset prices when the equation errors are strongly dependent. Limit theory for the test statistic is developed and extended to heteroskedastic models. The new test has stable size properties unlike conventional test statistics that typically lead to size distortion and inconsistency in the presence of strongly dependent equation errors. The new procedure can be used to consistently time-stamp the origination and termination of an explosive episode under similar conditions of long memory errors. Simulations are conducted to assess the finite …


Geographic Links And Predictable Returns, Zuben JIN, Frank Weikai LI 2024 Singapore Management University

Geographic Links And Predictable Returns, Zuben Jin, Frank Weikai Li

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using establishment-level data of U.S. public firms, we construct a novel measure of geographic linkage between firms. We show that the returns of geography-linked firms have strong predictive power for focal firm returns and fundamentals. This effect is distinct from other cross-firm return predictability and is not easily attributable to risk-based explanations. It is more pronounced for focal firms that receive lower investor attention, are more costly to arbitrage, and during high sentiment periods. The cross-firm information spillovers and return predictability are also stronger for geographic peers with economic linkages and with positive information. Our results are broadly consistent with …


Is The Declining Birthrate Really An Issue For The Economy?, Harsh Ramesh Pednekar, Theodore Lee, Darrion Chin 2023 Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University

Is The Declining Birthrate Really An Issue For The Economy?, Harsh Ramesh Pednekar, Theodore Lee, Darrion Chin

Introduction to Research Methods RSCH 202

This study aims to explore the complex implications of declining birth rates on the economy, focusing on GDP per capita as a crucial metric, and aims to uncover both potential opportunities and challenges stemming from this demographic transformation using regression analysis. Using a quantitative methodology and secondary data from OECD.stat, World Population Review, and World Bank, the study explores the relationship between declining birth rates and economic impacts. GDP per capita serves as an essential dependent variable, and it accounts for control variables such as labour force participation, literacy, and education levels, child dependence ratio, and physical capital. Past studies …


An Analysis On The Efficiency Of Philippine Microfinance Institutions: A Stochastic Frontier Approach, Ryan Lou Dio, Elijah Jacob Mendoza, Lunette Clarisse Nunez, Ma. Ellory Villanueva, Myrna S. Austria, Tereso S. Tullao Jr 2023 De La Salle University, Manila

An Analysis On The Efficiency Of Philippine Microfinance Institutions: A Stochastic Frontier Approach, Ryan Lou Dio, Elijah Jacob Mendoza, Lunette Clarisse Nunez, Ma. Ellory Villanueva, Myrna S. Austria, Tereso S. Tullao Jr

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

Microfinance institutions (MFIs) were created to provide loans and financial services for the poor as commercial banks have requirements that are not accessible to them. The Philippines government soon started using MFIs as a poverty alleviation tool to answer the market failure created by the commercial banking industry since it cannot accommodate the needs of low-income earners due to the high costs attached to it. However, recent studies have shown that MFIs are “mission drifting,” which means that they are deviating from their original social purpose and becoming more financially driven. As a result, this paper estimates the financial and …


How Commonality Persists? (Through Investors' Sentiment And Attention), Chyng Wen TEE, Raja VELU, Zhaoque ZHOU 2023 Singapore Management University

How Commonality Persists? (Through Investors' Sentiment And Attention), Chyng Wen Tee, Raja Velu, Zhaoque Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Studies on commonality generally attribute the variation in asset returns to the variation in order flows. In this research study, we show that order flows do not predict asset returns, rather their relationship have been static over time. Thus we model both returns and the order flows as endogenous variables, and use investors' sentiment and attention as exogenous factors via a reduced-rank regression. We provide empirical evidence to demonstrate that cross-sectional commonality in attention (sentiment) is linearly (nonlinearly) associated with both returns and order flows at the intraday level, while the sentiment and attention measures themselvesexhibit a nonlinear mutual relationship, …


Financial Integration And Exchange Market Pressure, Kate Phylaktis, Muhammad Aftab 2023 Professor, Bayes Business School, City University of London

Financial Integration And Exchange Market Pressure, Kate Phylaktis, Muhammad Aftab

CBER Conference

This study examines the role of financial integration on exchange market pressure (EMP) across a representative group of forty-two advanced and emerging markets over the period 2000-2019, which covers the global financial crisis, which has heightened monetary and economic policy uncertainty. We use a novel measure of financial integration, namely the uncovered equity return differential versus the US, which is based on the Uncovered Equity Parity and is available at a monthly frequency.


Evaluating The Impact Of Withdrawal Of Telegraphic Transfer (Tt) Charges Reimbursement On The Remittances From The Kingdom Of Saudi Arabia (Ksa), Muhammad Omer 2023 Economist, State Bank of Pakistan (SBP)

Evaluating The Impact Of Withdrawal Of Telegraphic Transfer (Tt) Charges Reimbursement On The Remittances From The Kingdom Of Saudi Arabia (Ksa), Muhammad Omer

CBER Conference

This paper attempted to estimate the impact of withdrawal of TTC reimbursement on remittances inflowing from the KSA into Pakistan. For this purpose, we have used difference in difference (DID) technique on data from July 2018 to September 2022. Our estimates suggest that this policy led to a decline in the remittances inflows from KSA on average between US$ 31 million to US$ 76 million in each month. From policy perspective, Government of Pakistan needs to review this policy of reimbursement on remittances inflowing from KSA. Our results appears robust to various changes in estimation framework.


Assessing The Performance And Risk-Adjusted Returns Of Financial Mutual Funds, Davinder Malhotra, Timothy Mooney, Raymond Poteau, Philip Russel 2023 Thomas Jefferson University

Assessing The Performance And Risk-Adjusted Returns Of Financial Mutual Funds, Davinder Malhotra, Timothy Mooney, Raymond Poteau, Philip Russel

School of Business Faculty Papers

In this study, we provide a comprehensive examination of the performance of financial (specialty sector financial) mutual funds over a 23-year period, a much longer time frame than what has been analyzed in previous literature. To fully understand the performance of these mutual funds, we consider multiple factors, including risk-adjusted performance, both unconditional and conditional multifactor analysis, and market timing and selectivity. Financial mutual funds have higher risk-adjusted performance than the overall market and financial sector benchmarks. However, fund alphas are not different from zero, and managers do not exhibit market timing or security selection abilities. Our analysis not only …


Information Loss In Volatility Measurement With Flat Price Trading, Peter C. B. PHILLIPS, Jun YU 2023 Singapore Management University

Information Loss In Volatility Measurement With Flat Price Trading, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

A model of financial asset price determination is proposed that incorporates flat trading features into an efficient price process. The model involves the superposition of a Brownian semimartingale process for the effcient price and a Bernoulli process that determines the extent of price trading. The approach is related to sticky price modeling and the Calvo pricing mechanism in macroeconomic dynamics. A limit theory for the conventional realized volatility (RV) measure of integrated volatility is developed. The results show that RV is still consistent but has an inflated asymptotic variance that depends on the probability of flat trading. Estimated quarticity is …


Explaining The Proliferation Of U.S. Billionaires During The Neoliberal Period, Rob Piper 2023 Florida International University

Explaining The Proliferation Of U.S. Billionaires During The Neoliberal Period, Rob Piper

Class, Race and Corporate Power

This article explains the proliferation of U.S. billionaire wealth during the neoliberal period (1980 to the present). Using the work of scholars, investigative journalists, and government researchers, it examines descriptive evidence from the past forty years of the economic, social, and political trends associated with the capital accumulation that led to so much wealth being concentrated with so few individuals. It further creates a theoretical framework of institutional factors (or “drivers”) that help to understand how these trends link together to provide a comprehensive explanation for the increase of billionaires in comparison with other economic gauges like GDP, income distribution, …


Work Hard For The Money: Performance-Based Funding In The State Of Louisiana, Victoria C. Lloyd 2023 Louisiana State University

Work Hard For The Money: Performance-Based Funding In The State Of Louisiana, Victoria C. Lloyd

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

The purpose of this study is to examine in what ways, if any, the introduction of the equity incentive portion of Louisiana’s performance-based funding model impacted the underserved student groups it was designed to support. I employed a quantitative quasi-experimental design for this study by running three outcome variables (Adult Learner Enrollment, First-Time Enrollment for Racially Minoritized Students, and Low-Income Student Enrollment) by sector (two- and four-year public institutions) and employing a differences-in-differences regression with panel data. In my analysis I uncovered two main findings: 1) Louisiana’s equity incentive is showing early signs of success for all three underserved groups …


Cross-Border Technology Investments In Recession, Juliana Yu SUN, Huanhuan ZHENG 2023 Singapore Management University

Cross-Border Technology Investments In Recession, Juliana Yu Sun, Huanhuan Zheng

Research Collection School Of Economics

Utilizing industry-level foreign direct investment (FDI) from 72 source markets to 122 destination markets between 2003 to 2018, we evaluate how cross-border technology investments respond to economic recessions. We find that FDI embedded with intensive research and development (R&D) drops when the destination market is in a recession and the source market is in a normal state and recovers to the pre-recession levels when both destination and source markets are in recession. However, there is little evidence that recessions affect cross-border investments in other aspects of technology measured by the penetration of robots, intellectual property products and information and communications …


The Impact Of More Able Managers On Corporate Trade Credit, Hui Liang James, Thanh Ngo, Hongxia Wang 2023 University of Texas at Tyler

The Impact Of More Able Managers On Corporate Trade Credit, Hui Liang James, Thanh Ngo, Hongxia Wang

Finance and Economics

We investigate how high-ability managers affect trade credit policies of U.S. publicly traded companies from 2003 to 2016. Consistent with the prediction of an “Imbalance of power” in the supply chain, we find that firms with more able managers implement more favorable trade credit policies with both upstream and downstream business partners (i.e., fewer trade credit days in receivables, more trade credit days in payables, and lower net trade credit days), indicating that managerial ability is an important determinant of corporate trade credit. Our cross-sectional analyses provide further support for the bargaining power view of trade credit. The results are …


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