Finance Commons^™

Information Loss In Volatility Measurement With Flat Price Trading, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

A model of financial asset price determination is proposed that incorporates flat trading features into an efficient price process. The model involves the superposition of a Brownian semimartingale process for the effcient price and a Bernoulli process that determines the extent of price trading. The approach is related to sticky price modeling and the Calvo pricing mechanism in macroeconomic dynamics. A limit theory for the conventional realized volatility (RV) measure of integrated volatility is developed. The results show that RV is still consistent but has an inflated asymptotic variance that depends on the probability of flat trading. Estimated quarticity is …

The Effect Of Quantitative Easing On The Financial Market In Canada, Ashiqur Rahman

Major Papers

This empirical study examines the effects of quantitative easing (QE) on the Canadian financial market. Specifically, the study focuses on the Bank of Canada's Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program (GBPP), conducted during COVID-19 between 2020 and 2022. I use two analytical methods, e.g., event study and time series analysis, to quantify the impact of the Bank of Canada's large asset purchases on the 10-year government bond yield's term premium. The results indicate that the Bank of Canada's $260 billion asset purchases in 2020 would reduce the 10-year term premium by 34 basis points, which suggests the significant impact of …

Exploring The Adoption And Impact Of Bitcoin: A Comparative Analysis, Zachary S. Biedscheid

2023 Symposium

Bitcoin, a decentralized digital currency, has gained significant attention recently as a potential alternative to traditional financial systems. This research project aims to explore the adoption and impact of Bitcoin by conducting a comparative analysis of its use in different countries and regions. The study will begin by examining the history and evolution of Bitcoin, its underlying technology, and its potential advantages and disadvantages compared to traditional financial systems. The project will then investigate Bitcoin adoption in different regions, including North America, Europe, Asia, and Africa, by analyzing data from relevant sources such as surveys, news articles, and academic research. …

Fafsa Completion: Considerations For An Extension-Led Statewide Nudge Campaign, Portia L. Johnson, Kacee Ross, Emily Hines

The Journal of Extension

Eight U.S. states have enacted legislation that mandates high school seniors to act on the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) before graduation. At least 10 other states are considering implementing similar FAFSA requirements. While proponents of the law believe it will affect postsecondary education and the workforce positively, dissenters argue that the policy is an unfunded mandate that taxes students and parents without offering adequate resources. This article synthesizes existing literature related to policy-related nudge campaigns to provide an Extension-led, cost-effective strategy to achieve the FAFSA mandate’s goal and improve citizens’ FAFSA completion behavior.

No More Empty Stadiums: A Meta Analysis Of Mega Sporting Events And Their Economic Impact, Tayte O. Gleason

Honors Thesis

Mega sporting events have faced increased scrutiny in recent decades for their negative economic impacts, externalities, and environmental effects. As multimillion dollar stadiums lay abandoned and future host city bids are withdrawn as public opinion on mega sporting events worsens with time, economists, governing bodies, and sports fans worry about the future locations of these massive sports festivals. In my thesis, I will conduct a meta analysis of articles measuring the various impacts and effects of hosting a mega sporting event. I will begin by performing an extensive literature review of the various factors contributing to a mega sporting event’s …

Predicting High-Cap Tech Stock Polarity: A Combined Approach Using Support Vector Machines And Bidirectional Encoders From Transformers, Ian L. Grisham

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The abundance, accessibility, and scale of data have engendered an era where machine learning can quickly and accurately solve complex problems, identify complicated patterns, and uncover intricate trends. One research area where many have applied these techniques is the stock market. Yet, financial domains are influenced by many factors and are notoriously difficult to predict due to their volatile and multivariate behavior. However, the literature indicates that public sentiment data may exhibit significant predictive qualities and improve a model’s ability to predict intricate trends. In this study, momentum SVM classification accuracy was compared between datasets that did and did not …

Bridging The Chasm Between Fundamental, Momentum, And Quantitative Investing, Allen Hoskins, Jeff Reed, Robert Slater

SMU Data Science Review

A chasm exists between the active public equity investment management industry's fundamental, momentum, and quantitative styles. In this study, the researchers explore ways to bridge this gap by leveraging domain knowledge, fundamental analysis, momentum, crowdsourcing, and data science methods. This research also seeks to test the developed tools and strategies during the volatile time period of 2020 and 2021.

Drowning In Debt: Understanding Debt-For-Climate Swaps Through A Case Study Of The Belize Blue Bond, Sheil Desai

Honors Theses (PPE)

Debt-for-climate swaps are an increasingly popular policy to help developing countries achieve debt sustainability and invest in climate action. However, there is a lack of research that critically evaluates the limitations of debt-for-climate swaps. In this paper, I seek to understand the challenges and successes of debt-for-climate swap through an analysis of the 2021 Belize Blue Bond, a case study representing the most ambitious and innovative debt-for-climate swap to date. I begin with an overview of the global eco-bond market and the history and structure of debt-for-climate swaps. I then retrace the economic history of Belize to contextualize the events …

Liquidity Constraints, Consumption, And Debt Repayment: Evidence From Macroprudential Policy In Turkey, Sumit Agarwal, Muris Hadzic, Changcheng Song, Yildirim Yildiray

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using account-level credit card data from a large Turkish bank, we study the impact of a unique credit card policy that increases minimum payment on consumption and debt repayment. We show that the policy reduces credit card spending and debt, boosts existing debt repayment, and reduces credit card delinquency. The credit card debt of affected consumers falls on average by 50% two years into the policy’s implementation. An increase in minimum payment has a stronger effect than does a decrease of a similar magnitude. We build a benchmark life cycle model with soft liquidity constraint to explain the reduction in …

Recessionary Woes: Examining Economic Policies And Their Impact On Student Loan Debt And Housing Stability In The United States, Connor Recck

Senior Theses and Projects

Recessionary periods can seldom be avoided, but our modern public infrastructure has designed mechanisms to respond to these downturns. Economic policy has rapidly changed over the last 50 years, and the types of tools policymakers use have evolved with it. When looking at the Great Recession (2007-2009) and the COVID-19 recession (2020), a federal response structure was vital for the health of the macroeconomy. These recessionary periods serve as case studies for a review of economic policymaking activity in the United States since 2000. To examine the efficacy of the federal government’s fiscal and monetary infrastructure, policies focused on supporting …

Macroeconomic Determinants Of Stock Market Development In Sample African Economies, Ehab Ayoub

Theses and Dissertations

This research paper studies the relationship between macroeconomic determinants as independent variables and different measures of stock market development as dependent variables across selected emerging economies in Africa for the period of 2002 to 2021, with a quarterly frequency using time series analysis. The independent variables used are Core Inflation, Deposit Rate, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), FX Rate against USD, Domestic Credit, Gross Domestic Product (Real GDP), Exports, Imports, External Debt, and Foreign Reserves. We use these variables as our main determinants of measuring economic growth. With regards to stock market development, we use four proxy measures as our benchmark, …

The Zero-Leverage Policy And Family Firms, Pedram Fardnia, Maher Kooli, Sonal Kumar

Finance Journal Articles

Purpose – The purpose of the study is to examine the zero-leverage (ZL) phenomenon in family and non-family firms.

Design/methodology/approach – The authors consider three hypotheses and empirically test them using a sample of the largest US firms over the 2001–2016 period.

Findings – The authors find that, on average, 19.20% of family firms have zero debt vs 10.42% for non-family firms. The authors also find that family firms strategically choose to be ZL to maintain financial flexibility for future investments and exercise control over the decision-making process, consistent with the hypotheses of financial flexibility and control considerations. However, non-family …

Bubble Testing Under Polynomial Trends, Xiaohu Wang, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper develops the asymptotic theory of the least squares estimator of the autoregressive (AR) coefficient in an AR(1) regression with intercept when data is generated from a polynomial trend model in different forms. It is shown that the commonly used right-tailed unit root tests tend to favor the explosive alternative. A new procedure, which implements the right-tailed unit root tests in an AR(2) regression, is proposed. It is shown that when the data generating process has a polynomial trend, the test statistics based on the new procedure cannot find evidence of explosiveness. Whereas, when the data generating process is …

Assessing The Odds Of A Us Recession, Thomas Lam, David Fernandez

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

In this commentary, SMU Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI) Principal Researcher Thomas Lam and SKBI Director SMU Professor of Finance (Practice) Dave Fernandez offer their perspectives on the current multifaceted and highly charged US recession debate. While America is currently not in a downturn, the near-term odds of one have edged up, according to models based on key monthly and weekly indicators.

Chinese Yuan Interest Rate Swap Yields, Tanweer Akram, Khawaja Mamun

WCBT Working Papers

This paper models the dynamics of Chinese yuan (CNY)–denominated long-term interest rate swap yields. The financial sector plays a vital role in the Chinese economy, which has grown rapidly in the past several decades. Going forward, interest rate swaps are likely to have an important role in the Chinese financial system. This paper shows that the short-term interest rate exerts a decisive influence on the long-term swap yield after controlling for various macrofinancial variables, such as inflation or core inflation, the growth of industrial production, percent change in the equity price index, and the percentage change in the CNY exchange …

Asymmetric Effects In Geopolitical Risk And Foreign Reserves Accumulation Among Brics Countries, Kwame O. Asomaning

Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)

Over the past decade, the rise of Geopolitical Risk (GPR) has had a significant effect on macro financial variables, prompting central banks to accumulate reserves as a "war chest" to protect their economies from the detrimental effects of such shocks. This study examines the asymmetries in the long run, short run, and locational asymmetric effects on foreign reserves in the BRICS countries, using both the Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) and Quantile ARDL (QARDL) models over the period 2000Q1–2021Q4. The results of the NARDL model suggest that GPR has long-run asymmetric effects for BRICS, while in the short run, all countries display …

Impact Of Geographical Diversification And Limited Attention On Private Equity Fund Returns, Victor Ong

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This article analyzes the effect of geographical diversification on global private equity (PE) fund returns. We find that there is a negative correlation between geographical diversification and PE fund returns. To establish the causality between geographical diversification and PE fund returns, we employ an instrumental variable analysis where the instrument used is the stock market capitalization of the host country where the PE fund is based. Our results apply to Net IRR, TVPI and DPI as dependent variables used to proxy for PE fund returns in the main regression model. A one standard deviation increase in geographical diversification results in …

Did Demonetization Have A Bigger Impact On Ppis (Prepaid Payment Instruments) Or Mobile Banking In India?, Ansh Vora

CMC Senior Theses

On November 8, 2016, Narendra Modi, prime minister of India, tele-advertised the entire nation and announced that India's highest value banknotes, the 500 and 1000 rupee “Rs” notes would be demonetized and taken out of circulation, effective midnight. Modi stated that this is an effort to reduce the large economy of black money, transition India into a digital economy, abolish funding of terrorist groups and illicit circulation of counterfeit notes. In this study, I choose to analyze the impact of demonetization on two digital payment methods - Prepaid Payment Instruments, “PPI” and Mobile Banking. The data used in this study …

Application Of Sentiment Analysis And Machine Learning Techniques To Predict Daily Cryptocurrency Price Returns, Edward Wu

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the effects of social media sentiment relating to Bitcoin on the daily price returns of Bitcoin and other popular cryptocurrencies by utilizing sentiment analysis and machine learning techniques to predict daily price returns. Many investors think that social media sentiment affects cryptocurrency prices. However, the results of this paper find that social media sentiment relating to Bitcoin does not add significant predictive value to forecasting daily price returns for each of the six cryptocurrencies used for analysis and that machine learning models that do not assume linearity between the current day price return and previous daily price …

Analyzing The Accessibility Of Sports Facilities In Missoula, Montana, Quinn T. Peacock

Undergraduate Theses, Professional Papers, and Capstone Artifacts

The purpose of this survey is to understand the qualitative value of the public field inventory that will be analyzed based on quantitative data. We want to understand not only the assumed factors from data that affect rec-participants behavior, but what the individuals have to say about it for themselves as well.