Macroeconomics Commons^™

The Economics Behind The Legalization Of Sports Gambling And Financial Market Relations, John Bassham

Finance Undergraduate Honors Theses

With the recent legalization of sports gambling, it has become a popular spectacle among sports fans and financial analysts pursuing an understanding of it. This thesis dives into the meticulous relationship between sports gambling and economic factors/financial market relations using academic literature to understand the relationship.

The thesis explores sports gambling from an economic standpoint using incentives to understand the market participants and economic advantages and disadvantages. It also uses academic literature and analytics to make a case for market efficiency while also delving into particular inefficiencies.

Furthermore, this thesis uses characteristics of the stock market in comparison of the …

Economic Anomalies Following The Handover Of Hong Kong, Nathan Martin

Economics Undergraduate Honors Theses

This paper seeks to examine and provide a possible explanation for economic anomalies in Hong Kong following its handover to China. Hong Kong was on a 99-year lease to the United Kingdom from China before being handed back over July 1^st, 1997. Due to the “one country, two systems” policy espoused in the handover agreement that was to be implemented for fifty years, this event marks a rare natural experiment of a peaceful regime change without a significant change in governance. This paper seeks to understand the impact of the act of regime change on selected key macroeconomic …

De-Escalating The United States-China Trade War Using A Global Conflict Resolution Methodology Framework, Angelina Kapp

Undergraduate Honors Theses

How can the United States and China collaboratively de-escalate their current trade relationship using a conflict resolution methodology to foster economic growth and foreign investor confidence in the evolving landscape of global trade? This paper will serve as a guide to those wanting to gain a comprehensive understanding of the macroeconomic causes and impacts of the contentious trade war between the U.S. and China. The year 2018 can be attributed to the start of the war when then-President Donald Trump implemented tariffs on Chinese goods and products. These back-and-forth financial and economic measures have been continually imposed to this day …

Essays On Trade Policy, Ward Reesman

All Dissertations

This dissertation consists of two essays on international trade and trade policy, focusing on a quantitative evaluation of the causes and consequences of trade barriers and economic integration. In the first essay, I examine the role of a widely-used discriminatory trade barrier in shaping dynamic trade patterns of exporters across a range of affected and unaffected export markets. In the next chapter, I explore the heterogeneous economic determinants impacting the formation of economic integration agreements among countries, paying specific attention to the role of bilateral migration flows.

The first chapter estimates the dynamic trade effects of temporary trade barriers (TTBs), …

Partisan Perspectives On Inflation: Exploring Bias In Economic Expectations, Anna Durall

Economics Honors Projects

Inflation expectations are important determinants of future inflation and individual consumer behavior. Recent attention has been devoted to individual-level heterogeneity in inflation expectations. I consider political partisanship as a source of heterogeneity and question whether expectations are biased by partisanship. I find that they are, i.e., that individuals from the president's political party expect lower inflation relative to members of the opposing party (this difference is statistically insignificant during the Bush presidency), and that this result cannot be explained by additional sources of heterogeneity. I also examine whether belonging to the president's political party affects the rationality of expectations and …

Incorporating Institutions And Ideology: Why Covid Didn't Change Anything, Cullen Kendrick

Departmental Honors & Graduate Capstone Projects

In this paper, I investigate the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic through an economic and philosophical lens to try and understand why government aid was removed. Looking at the problem as solely a structural issue, with Jurgen Habermas’ Between Facts and Norms and Douglas North’s Institutions, Institutional Change, and Economic Performance guiding my understanding, provides useful insights. Namely, how the informal and formal structures of society interact, and their cyclical nature. However, that perspective does not provide a complete picture. And so, I developed an understanding of ideology to investigate the origins of informal societal structures. To do this I …

Capitalism In Europe Vs. Latin America, Brandy Mace, Lucas E. Mainhart, Caleb Edwards, Dayton Lamb, Jesus Herrera-Herrera

ATU Scholars Symposium

Focusing on the years 1995 to 2023, what are the universal traits of capitalism versus the more varying or flexible traits, as demonstrated by comparing European and Latin American practices of capitalism. For the country comparisons, researchers have agreed on 3 common variables to evaluate the capitalist practices of a Latin American country with a European one. These shared variables are 1) The power of the country's currency, 2) The informal versus formal employment of the labor force, as well as unemployment rate, and 3) The income gap between the rich and poor. Each researcher will also include 1-3 additional …

Evaluating Macro-Policy Attitudes About Abortion In The United States, Christopher Olds, Miriam Guadalupe Benavides-Ortega, Madison May Albers, Rocio Figueroa-Castro

SACAD: Scholarly Activities

Prior research on public opinion demonstrates attitudes about major issues often shift/move together. In other words, public support for government involvement in domestic affairs across multiple policy areas can be indicative of the general policy sentiment or public mood at any given point in time. In exploring specific issue areas in isolation, researchers can assess whether change in opinion on an issue area is significantly linked to fluctuations in views about macroeconomic conditions. The current research project will contrast quarterly public support for government involvement in the issue area of abortion through vector autoregression time series techniques examining whether prior …

Is Asia On The Precipice Of A Currency Crisis? Exploring Regional Risks And Implications On The Global Economy, Hannah Deng

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

This paper examines the economic stability of Asia in the face of a potential currency crisis through drawing upon the historical context provided by the 1997 East Asian Financial Crisis. It systematically explores the characteristics and precursors of currency crises, analyzes the Asia-Pacific region’s response to past financial upheavals, and evaluates current macroeconomic vulnerabilities as well as policy frameworks. By juxtaposing the changes in Asia’s financial landscape from the late 20th century to the present, the study identifies persistent structural weaknesses and the region’s ongoing exposure to volatile global financial markets. It also considers the possibility of emerging markets establishing …

The Digital Commercial Revolution: U.S. Business Sales And The Entrepreneurial Exploitation Of Information And Communications Technology, John T. Scott

Dartmouth Scholarship

Businesses have taken the opportunities, made possible by information and communications technology (ICT), to develop and use digital platform services and other digital tools to support sales. This paper estimates a model of U.S. business sales and uses the estimated model to assess the economic impact of the digital commercial revolution of the first two decades of the twenty-first century. The estimations show that the entrepreneurial initiatives—that drove the digital revolution in commerce by capitalizing on the new technologies made available by the ICT revolution—came to fruition in the wake of the Great Recession. For 2019, the last year before …

“¡Que Se Vayan Todos!”: La Crisis Socioeconómica De Argentina En Diciembre De 2001 Y El Papel Del Fondo Monetario Internacional En Su Desarrollo / “Down With Them All!”: Argentina’S December 2001 Socioeconomic Crisis And The Role Of The International Monetary Fund In Its Development, Romita Chattaraj

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Desde su inicio en 1944, el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) ha sido objeto de controversia por su participación en algunas de las peores crisis financieras de la historia económica global. La crisis socioeconómica de 2001 que experimentó Argentina tras décadas de apoyo del FMI es uno de sus casos más destacados. A pesar del crecimiento económico explosivo que experimentó Argentina a lo largo del siglo XIX y principios del XX, Argentina cayó víctima de la inestabilidad macroeconómica durante la segunda mitad del siglo XX y finalmente llegó a declarar lo que en ese momento fue el mayor incumplimiento soberano de …

Estimating The Stability Of Okun's Law, Xinrui (Crystal) Wang, Samuel Schreyer

SACAD: Scholarly Activities

This study focuses on employing the gap version of Okun's Law, conducting regression analysis between the output gap and the unemployment gap to assess their effectiveness and long-term stability, and also estimates the significant relationship between the output gap and the unemployment gap. This study also compares the output gap dynamics during economic contractions and expansions.

Trade Liberalization With Brics: A Cge Model Of Egypt, Kareem Ashraf

Theses and Dissertations

This paper presents an ex-ante impact assessment of a hypothetical FTA between Egypt and the BRICS from an Egyptian economy-wide and sectorial perspectives, with a granular look into manufacturing. The chosen methodology is a static SAM-based Computable General Equilibrium model calibrated to Egypt’s 2018-2019 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). With respect to existing literature, the paper uniquely stands in considering an Egypt-BRICS FTA with a granular assessment of manufacturing subsectors and in running a simulation of Egypt’s trade liberalization with the wider BRICS alliance, including the accession of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Ethiopia, and Iran, which joined the bloc along with Egypt …

Does Dollarization Have An Impact On Economic Growth?, Jorge Robinson

Research Day

Many developing and undeveloped countries, grappling with issues such as hyperinflation, corruption, high unemployment rates, poverty, and financial instability, often view dollarization as a potential solution. Dollarization involves adopting the US currency as the official or parallel currency, a strategy observed in countries like El Salvador, Ecuador, and Zimbabwe. The purpose of this research is to compare the impact of dollarization on real gross domestic product (RGDP) to that of countries that did not adopt dollarization. My results indicate that dollarization does indeed affect economic growth. These findings demonstrate that dollarized countries experience a higher percentage change in RGDP compared …

Digitalization And Economies Of Oic Countries, Mohsin Ali, Urooj Anwar, Mudeer Ahmed Khattak, Muhammad Umar Islam

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This paper studies the impact of digitalization on the Organization of Islamic countries (OIC) economies. The study is conducted to see whether digitalization is playing its role in enhancing economic growth. We employ a panel dataset consisting of twenty-one years from 2000 to 2020 for 57 OIC countries. We use the system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator. The results indicate that digitalization positively impacts the economies of OIC countries. As for policy implication, this study recommends governments of OIC member countries to invest in digital infrastructure in order to foster economic growth.

Spillover Effects Of Capital Controls: A Critical Review And New Agenda For The Future Directions, Biswajit Panigrahi, K.P Prabheesh

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study tries to undertake a critical review of the spillover effects of capital controls and their welfare implications. We provide a synthesis of the literature on both the theoretical and empirical literature on the spillover effects of capital controls. Furthermore, the role of similar economies (geographical region, and economic characteristics), direction-specific capital controls, global financial crisis (GFC), asset-specific capital controls and the compositional effect of capital flows are discussed to explore the degree and extent of spillover effects of capital controls policy. Similarly, the welfare implications of capital controls depend on the policy motive behind the imposition of capital …

Reinvigorating Gva Nowcasting In The Post-Pandemic Period: A Case Study For India, Kaustubh Na, Soumya Suvra Bhadury, Saurabh Ghosh

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

We reinvigorate nowcasting models considering structural changes caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. It emphasizes the need to understand the heterogeneous impact of shocks on agriculture, industry, and services sectors in an emerging market economy (e.g., India). Our findings advocate a bottom-up approach that tracks sectors separately rather than a headline number. Our results suggest including digital-activity index and supply-side disruption index in the post-pandemic period could improve nowcast performance. Expectation-Maximization (E-M) algorithm is used to combine data series based on their availability. Among bridging methods, the averaging method is preferred due to its simplicity and flexibility.

Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Inflation Expectations In India? Evidences From Surveys Of Household And Professional Forecasters, Irfan Ali Kc

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study examines whether inflation targeting (IT) anchors household and professional forecasters expectations in India. It investigates whether food and non-food inflation affect anchoring inflation expectations differently. Primarily, the results indicate significant decreases in the level and variability of expectations. Further, it provides evidence of successful anchoring for professional forecasters' and household expectations. However, it also found food inflation assist anchoring of expectations, while the non-food inflation doesn't. The results suggest the central bank to emphasize more on non-food inflation for better anchoring prospects. Additionally, the study identifies food inflation as the primary contributor to headline inflation variability.

Fiscal Administration Versus Fiscal Policy: An Investigation Into The Determinants Of The Real Tax Revenues From Consumption Tax In Egypt, Nariman Zahran

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis highlights the importance of fiscal administration relative to fiscal policies. It presents a broad view of the developments in both fields and tests their effects on real revenues from consumption tax in Egypt from fiscal year 2002 till 2023. It initially explains the proxies used for fiscal administration: the size of the tax base and the collection lag. The major fiscal policy change in Egypt was shifting from sales tax to Value-Added Tax (VAT) during fiscal year 2016/17. The effects of fiscal administration and fiscal policy on real tax revenues will be assessed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag …

Essays In Macroeconomics And Finance, Archil Dvalishvili

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Chapter 1: (A Quantitative Analysis of Interest on Reserves and Reserve Requirements) - I construct a medium scale DSGE model with financial frictions both on the demand (entrepreneurs) and supply (banks) sides of credit to study the costs and benefits of fixed/time-varying minimum reserve requirements and interest paid by the Fed on reserves.The results can be summarized as follows: (1) An optimal time-varying minimum reserve requirement generates substantial welfare gain when compared with a fixed minimum reserve requirement when no interest is paid on reserves. (2) Paying interest on reserves is substantially welfare inferior to a policy with no interest …