Macroeconomics Commons^™

Inflation-Differential Rule Versus (De Facto Soft-Peg) Discretion: Exchange-Rate Management Approach In Developing Economies, Behnam Ebrahimi, Mohammad Vaez Barzani Dr.

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

Many developing and emerging economies officially report a managed floating exchange-rate regime tailored with a fundamental exchange rate management approach, while in practice operating a de facto soft peg, characterized by discretionary, near-constant exchange-rate depreciation aimed at dampening inflation expectations. This discretionary approach—often justified as a pragmatic response to inflationary pressure—produces a hybrid regime that lacks the transparency and credibility emphasized in IMF policy guidance. This study evaluates whether substituting Discretionary Soft-Peg Exchange Rate Management approach with an Inflation-Differential Rule of Exchange Rate Management approach, which links exchange-rate adjustments to the inflation differential between domestic and rest of the world, …

Puzzling Behavior In Monetary Policy Transmission: New Evidence From Central Asian Economies, Elyor Davlatov, Judit Sági

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

The misidentification of monetary policy shocks typically produces the price, and the exchange rate puzzles in empirical studies. Numerous identification approaches have been introduced in the VAR literature, and these approaches have been applied to address anomalies in various countries. This study examines how well these identification approaches have worked in resolving price and exchange rate puzzles under state dominance in the financial sector in a highly dollarized and shallow financial market environment of Central Asian Economies (CAEs). First, a baseline Vector Autoregression (VAR) model with short-run restrictions is estimated using Cholesky factorization, with anomalous results observed for both prices …

Bridging Fiscal Sustainability And Health Equity: A Policy Analysis Of California’S Healthcare Coverage Safeguards, Guadalupe Castaneda Martinez

Master's Projects and Capstones

Without structural policy intervention, approximately 4.6 million Californians remain at risk of being uninsured by 2030, worsening racial and ethnic health disparities and hospital uncompensated care burdens. This policy analysis advocates for a hybrid universal coverage model combining sliding-scale subsidies (California Senate Bill 78) with full-scope Medi-Cal expansion for all income-eligible residents regardless of legal status (California Assembly Bill 133). The framework relies on existing funding mechanisms, including the Managed Care Organization tax and the Health Care Affordability Reserve Fund. Comparative analysis indicates that market-only subsidies leave severe equity gaps, whereas immediate single-payer transitions pose substantial fiscal and administrative risks. …

A Simulation Assessment Of The 'Law Of One Price', Caleb Wilkins

Computational and Data Sciences (MS) Theses

The ‘law of one price’ is an appealing notion regarding pricing of tradeable commodities that are priced in different currencies. It states that the prices of the same good in different markets should be equal after adjustment for exchange rates and that equality should persist through exchange rate fluctuations.

My research simulates the market conditions that should precipitate the ‘law of one price.’ Data was obtained from the simulated trade between algorithmic artificial intelligence agents that operated under induced boundedly rational market behaviors. Trade took place in two initially separate markets, a high-price market with a higher equilibrium price and …

Usability Of Bitcoin As Currency In Türkiye: Fourier Shin Approach, İsmail Cem Özkurt, Deniz Özyakışır, Yunus Kutval

The Indonesian Capital Market Review

This paper seeks to assess the feasibility of utilizing Bitcoin as a currency within Türkiye. To achieve this, the research analyzes long-term cointegration relationships between Bitcoin and both the US Dollar and Euro, employing monthly data from November 2017 to February 2025 and utilizing the Fourier Shin cointegration test. The results of the cointegration tests, bolstered by Fourier series analysis, reveal significant long-term cointegration relationships between Bitcoin and both the USD and Euro. The DOLS analysis indicates that a 1% rise in Bitcoin leads to a 14% decrease in the USD price and a 17% increase in the Euro. These …

Blue Economy In Madura: Research Trends And Structural Change, Herry Yulistiyono, Aditya Tri Prasetyo, Ari Warokka

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan

This study examines the development of the blue economy in Madura through bibliometric analysis, focusing on research trends and economic structural changes from 2020 to 2024, as well as analyzing gaps and potential areas for future research. The methodology employed is a quantitative approach utilizing bibliometric methods. Data were obtained from scientific publications and analyzed using metrics that measure the ratio of citations to publications.

The results indicate a significant increase in the number of publications on the blue economy in Madura, peaking in 2023 with 29 researchers focusing on diverse topics. Performance metrics analysis revealed Marine Policy as the …

Mengukur Capaian Dan Identifikasi Konvergensi Pembangunan Infrastruktur Antarprovinsi Di Indonesia, Ressa Isnaini Arumnisaa', Aisyah Fitri Yuniasih

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

Indonesia’s economic challenges are characterized by stagnant economic growth and regional development disparities. This study analyzes the achievement and convergence of infrastructure development across provinces in Indonesia during 2011–2021 through the construction of an Infrastructure Development Index (IPI). The study employs panel data from 33 provinces, using factor analysis to construct the IPI and the First Difference Generalized Method of Moments (FD-GMM) to examine convergence and its determinants. The results show that many provinces still have IDI scores below the national average. Furthermore, the FD-GMM model shows that σ-convergence and β-convergence occur in Indonesia. In addition, GRDP per capita, inflation, …

Passed Through Or Pushed Back? Exchange Rate Effects On Manufacturing Trade Prices In Indonesia And The Asean Plus Three, Fatikha Rizky Kurnia, Miguel Angel Esquivias, Wee-Yeap Lau, Unggul Heriqbaldi

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study analyzes the Exchange Rate Pass-Through (ERPT) on export and import prices in Indonesia’s manufacturing trade with ASEAN Plus-three countries (China, Japan, and South Korea) using monthly data from 2016 to 2022. Employing the Nonlinear (NARDL) models, we examine the degree and asymmetry of ERPT across five key manufacturing sectors for each partner. The NARDL model confirms asymmetric price responses to currency appreciation and depreciation in several sectors. The findings reveal significant sectoral and country-specific variations. Some export sectors experience complete pass-through in the short term but shift to negative complete passthrough in the long run. Meanwhile, imports from …

Financial Stability Versus Bank Lending Channel Transmission: The Impact Of Bank Competition And Concentration In Indonesia, Alif Ihsan A Fahta, Chaikal Nuryakin

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

Using financial data from 47 publicly listed banks in Indonesia from 2013Q4 to 2023Q3, this study employs a new approach by utilizing ΔCoVaR as a proxy for financial stability to examine how changes in bank competition in bank competition and banking industry concentration affects financial stability and the effectiveness of bank lending channel transmission. We find that, on one hand, an increase in market power (decreased bank competition) and an increase in banking industry concentration reduce financial stability. On the other hand, an increase in banking industry concentration enhances the effectiveness of the bank lending channel transmission by increasing the …

The Impact Of Corruption On Private Investment In The Mena Region: An Empirical Study On The Period Of 1996-2023, Mohamed A. El Regdawy

Theses and Dissertations

This study aims to examine and understand empirically the impact of corruption on private investment in the MENA region during the period of 1996-2023, as private investment is a key enabler for sustainable economic growth. To better understand such a relationship, a Pooled Mean Group estimator was implemented to figure out this relationship in both the short run and long run. The findings confirm that in the long run, within the context of MENA, corruption was used as a tool to overcome the lack of quality in the regulations that were supposed to enable the role of the private sector. …

The Role Of Bank Portfolio Heterogeneity In The Fiscal Stimulus Policy In Indonesia, Michael Kusuma, Brigitha Mega Rebeca

BISNIS & BIROKRASI: Jurnal Ilmu Administrasi dan Organisasi

Fiscal stimulus transmission is often hindered by banking frictions from risk-averse behavior and channel specialization. To evaluate the fiscal stimulus policy in Indonesia, this study introduces a modified Input-Output (I-O) framework integrated with bank portfolio-based shock vectors. This approach captures banking frictions by incorporating institution-specific portfolio weights into the macro-simulation framework, providing a more realistic assessment than standard uniform-transmission assumptions. Three scenarios are simulated (policy design, interim realization, and expansionary response) to assess the macroeconomic impacts of credit concentration. The results reveal a significant gap between the initial policy design and its actual realization, generating an economic opportunity loss of …

Joan Robinson Rate Of Interest Paper, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Robinson, J. (1960). The rate of interest. In Collected economic papers (Vol. 2, pp. 246–265). Basil Blackwell. (Reprinted from Econometrica, 1951, 19(2), 92–111).

The Relationship Between Government Bailouts And Risk-Taking Behavior In Banks: A Case Study From The Great Financial Crisis Of 2008-09, Derek J. Cameron

Economics Working Papers

This study seeks to determine whether the expectation of a government bailout in the event of a crisis incentivizes ex ante risk-taking in banks. Although this subject has been the subject of extensive research in both economics and finance, this specific paper differs from existing literature in that it uses a strictly empirical methodology with minimal theoretical modeling and few assumptions about the banking sector, while also considering the entire banking sector and limiting itself exclusively to ex ante bank investment decisions. This study employs data compiled from various sources about 11 American banks of various sizes between January 2002 …

Fiscal And Monetary Policies For Inclusive Growth In Developing And Emerging Markets, Collins Anosike

Journal of Global Awareness

The study examined the effects of monetary and fiscal policies in attaining inclusive growth for some developing countries and emerging markets. The study selected 20 countries and grouped them into group one and group two. The study is unique because it captures a broader range of countries compared to previous studies and shows their effect on economic growth. We use panel data and employ OLS regression and Johansen cointegration. We examine how each variable, general government expenditure, gross national expenditure, total revenue, official exchange rate, broad money, and deposit interest rate, affects the dependent variable (real GDP) from 1980 to …

Notes From The Editor, Jay Nathan

Journal of Global Awareness

No abstract provided.

Economic Drivers Of International Migration To Türkiye: A Regional Comparison Study, Bekir Gündoğmuş, Musa Bayir, Ahmed Yusuf Sarihan

Makara Human Behavior Studies in Asia

This study investigates the macroeconomic determinants of registered international migration to Türkiye by employing panel data regression techniques at the NUTS-2 regional level for the period 2016–2022. The results reveal that per capita income, employment, and the share of industry, services, and construction sectors in total production have a statistically significant and positive impact on migration inflows, while inflation exhibits a negative effect. However, agricultural production proportion and export performance do not appear to significantly influence regional migrant preferences. Causality tests further support the existence of both bidirectional and unidirectional relationships between economic indicators and migration. The findings underscore the …

Beyond Brain Drain: H-1b Visas, Innovation, And Human Flourishing, Joel Wong

Honors Projects

High-skilled migration has become one of the defining features of the modern global economy, especially in technology, engineering, and research-intensive industries. While public debate surrounding the H-1B visa program often centers on its effects within the United States, less attention has been given to how these migration flows affect the countries from which workers originate. This question is important because many sending countries invest heavily in the education and development of highly skilled workers while also seeking long-term economic growth and innovation. This study examines whether increases in H-1B visa migration are associated with changes in innovation outcomes in major …

Undertaking Short-Term Finance Transactions In Brazil - An Historic And Modern Look At The Brazilian Economy And Associated Risks, Shawn M. D'Aversa

Student Research

The following report discusses the risks and construction of a hypothetical short-term trade finance transaction involving the five parties: Citibank N.A., Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), Banco Do Brasil, Paracatu Gold Mine and EXIM Bank. Fair warning: this is a long paper for a short-term transaction.

For the deal, Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) has approached Citibank N.A. in New York regarding a financing transaction for five 797F-400 short-ton haul trucks. The trucks are worth $5mn each, including the costs of training and spare parts, for a total of $25mn. Put simply, the trucks are beasts for mining. They will then be shipped to …

Controlling Fiscal Destiny: Evaluating The Effect Of State Tax Composition On Resilience During Defined Shock Period, Calloway R. Bills

Honors Theses

State governments operate under strict fiscal constraints that limit their ability to respond to economic downturns through borrowing or monetary policy, making tax composition a key determinant of fiscal stability. This paper evaluates how variation in state tax revenue composition affects fiscal resilience during economic shocks, focusing on the Great Recession. While prior research shows that individual tax instruments differ in cyclicality, less is known about how overall tax structure shapes revenue performance during and after shocks. Using a panel dataset of U.S. states from 1988 to 2024, this study measures resilience through two outcomes: the magnitude of revenue decline …

Manipulation Or Monetization?: The Rise Of Stock Buybacks And Their Effects On Firm Valuation And Investment, Thomas H. Serrano

Economics Undergraduate Honors Theses

Abstract:

This thesis uses basic econometrics to examine the relationship between stock buybacks, firm valuation, and investment among publicly traded firms from 2000-2024. Using firm-level data pulled from Compustat North America and a fixed-effect multivariate regression, it evaluates whether buybacks are associated with higher valuation and stronger productive investment as defined in the paper. The results show that buybacks are positively associated with firm valuation the first year that they occur, but the relationship disappears when they are lagged for a year. Furthermore, the analysis does not find strong statistical evidence that repurchases are associated with changes in investment, or …

Long Run Effect Of Industrial Place-Based Policy On County Level Complexity, An Investigation Of The Tennessee Valley Authority, Anita Ifeyinwa Umunnah

Master's Theses

This paper studies the long-term effects of large federal investments in place-based industrial policies on regional economic development, contributing new evidence on how industrial policies shape regional local productive capabilities over time. While extensive research show that industrial policies impact regional development by advancing productive technology (capabilities), the fundamental question remains how to measure this technological transformation. The study employs the use of Economic Complexity Index (ECI) as a measure of “technological advancements” resulting from large federal investments in place-based industrial policies. Previous evaluations of such investment were based on livelihood, employment and income outcomes, with productive capability of receiving …

Inflation Rates Have A Tailwind, Francis R. Whitehouse Jr.

Atlantic Marketing Association Proceedings

No abstract provided.

The Hypocrisy Of The Wizards—A Proposal To Correct Incentives In Higher Education Loan Financing, Caden Benedict

School of Public Policy Capstones

This paper explores the origins of the student loan debt crisis and proposes tying university incentives to graduates' repayment plans and disclosing median earnings for degrees before students apply. Specifically, while there are numerous factors explaining why the price of education has increased dramatically since the 1970s, this paper proposes solutions that will specifically target university moral hazards by requiring universities fund: (1) the current subsidies to federal student loan repayments under income-driven plans as the House of Representatives intended before the Senate removed "risk-sharing," and (2) bankruptcy law discharge amounts. Moreover, requiring universities to disclose the median earnings of …

Essays On Family Economics, Culture, Inequality, And Growth, Rouzhi Liang

Economics Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation consists of essays on how family resource allocation and cultural values shape innovation, inequality, and long-run economic development. Across the chapters, I combine quantitative modeling and empirical analysis to understand the determinants of inequality and long-run growth.

Chapter 1 studies how parental fertility and bequest decisions affect children’s potential to become entrepreneurs when financial barriers exist. Motivated by evidence that high-income parents tend to have fewer children and leave larger bequests and allocate more resources per child, I develop an overlapping-generations model with endogenous fertility, bequests, and occupational choice, calibrated to U.S. data. The model shows that, when …

From Ruins To Rival: How The Japanese Economic Miracle Forged A Global Power, Elizabeth Rips

The Dialogue

The Japanese Economic Miracle (1950-1975) represents one of the most sustained periods of rapid economic growth in modern history. This paper examines the extent to which political policies contributed to Japan’s transformation into a leading global industrial power during the postwar era. While some historians emphasize the decisive role of U.S. occupation reforms and American economic support, this paper argues that Japan’s rise resulted from the interaction of multiple factors. Focusing on political institutions such as the Yoshida Doctrine, the dissolution of zaibatsu’s, and the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI), the paper analyzes how state-led industrial policy fostered …

Protection Vs. Progression: A Macroeconomic Approach To Military Expenditure Direct Effects On Social Outcomes Using Ihdi Measures, Connor Graham

Global Tides

This study examines whether military expenditure reduces inequality-adjusted human development and how national governance quality moderates these effects. Using panel data covering 121 countries from 2010-2023, two-way fixed effects models are employed to estimate the relationship between military spending and the Inequality-Adjusted Human Development Index (IHDI). Three key findings emerge from the analysis based on the resulting data. First, a one percentage point increase in military spending reduces IHDI by 0.0012-0.0015 points. Second, the effects prove seven times larger in developed countries than in developing ones, which runs contrary to expectations and prior literature. Lastly, political stability emerged as a …

Gender Norms, Socio-Organizational Ergonomics, And Female Labor Force Participation In South Asia, Huma Maqsood, Nor Fatimah Che Sulaiman, Suriyani Muhamad, Nor Aizal Akmal Binti Rohaizad, Sana Mukhtar

The Qualitative Report

Socio-organizational ergonomics encompasses workplace social and cultural factors that influence inclusion, performance, and well-being. Gender-based socio-organizational ergonomics has both microeconomic and macroeconomic implications. In this context, underutilization of women’s economic potential, evidenced by low female labor force participation, emerges as a critical factor that compromises sustainable growth in developing countries. To study the phenomenon, we examined the impact of gender norms on socio-organizational ergonomics and female labor force participation in South Asia. Qualitative data from in-depth interviews with 20 female participants are thematically analyzed using Braun and Clarke’s TA framework. Our findings highlight that socio-organizational ergonomics in South Asia is …

The Writing On The Wall: The Rise Of Applied Ai And The Life-Or-Death Choice Every Ceo Must Make Now, Gary Sheng, Ron Roberts

Digital Laboratory: Publisher of Internet Journal

Applied AI is putting AI to its highest and best use: running your organization as autonomously as possible so you can deliver value for humanity while maximizing the scale of the value. The economy is splitting. Organizations that adopt applied AI are expanding their capacity, accelerating their impact, and pulling ahead. Those that don't are quietly becoming irrelevant, not because they're doing bad work, but because the gap between what they can do and what the moment requires is widening every day. This is not a technology question. It is a leadership question. This paper is written for organizational leaders, …

Converting The Social Security Trust Fund Into A Sovereign Wealth Fund: A Proposal To Secure The Future, Keanu Moore

Dartmouth College Master’s Theses

This thesis proposes the conversion of the Social Security Trust Fund into a sovereign wealth fund (SWF), paired with the phased creation of a mandatory retirement savings system for all working-age Americans. In response to forecasts projecting Trust Fund depletion by 2034, the proposed portfolio shift would diversify assets beyond U.S. Treasuries into global equities, real estate, alternatives, and fixed income, with the goal of enhancing long-term returns while remaining passively managed. While this reform would extend the Fund’s solvency, it is not, on its own, a permanent fix. To ensure structural sustainability beyond the exhaustion date, the thesis proposes …

Black Swans And Financial Stability: A Framework For Building Resilience, Daniel J. Barth, Stacey L. Schreft

Journal of Financial Crises

This article refines the concept of black swans, typically described as highly unlikely and catastrophic events, to be internally consistent. It explores features of the financial system that prevent the eradication of black swans. The main implication is the need to enhance the financial system’s resilience to withstand unforeseen events rather than focus on past crises. The article introduces a “resilience principle” for designing official-sector policies that can achieve such goals. The principle calls for policies that are adaptable, universal, and systemic. The article provides examples of policies with these features, assuming that the official sector is not better positioned …