Macroeconomics Commons^™

Tracking Impact: Leveraging Pre-Existing Monitoring Tools For Assessing Indonesia’S Free Nutritious Meal (Makan Bergizi Gratis) Programme, Putu Geniki Lavinia Natih

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Indonesia’s Makan Bergizi Gratis (MBG) programme is among the largest school feeding initiatives globally, yet its rapid scale-up has outpaced the development of a robust monitoring, evaluation, and learning (MEL) framework capable of assessing welfare-relevant outcomes. This paper examines whether pre-existing national survey instruments can be leveraged to strengthen outcome monitoring in the absence of MBG-specific microdata. Focusing on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) collected through Indonesia’s National Socio-Economic Survey (Susenas), the study first situates experiential food insecurity within Indonesia’s broader food security landscape. It then applies a propensity score matching framework using participation in the Bantuan Pangan Non-Tunai …

The Evolution Of Schooling: From Industrial Obedience To Techno-Autonomy, Seb Taylor, Ron Roberts Ii

Digital Laboratory: Publisher of Internet Journal

This paper examines the enduring architecture of the American education system as a mechanism designed for compliance, not creativity. Rooted in 19th-century industrial logic, the structure of schooling, its physical design, time constraints, and assessment methods, has remained largely static despite seismic cultural and technological shifts. Through historical analysis and contemporary critique, this work interrogates the persistence of standardized methods, institutional prestige, and top-down instruction as barriers to meaningful learning and value creation. Drawing from interdisciplinary research and live case studies, including Alpha School’s AI-powered, mastery-based model, the paper advances the concept of techno-education: a student-centered paradigm informed by feedback …

Triple Shock On External Sustainability In Indonesia, Aloysius Deno Hervino, Insukindro Insukindro, Sekar Utami Setiastuti, Amirullah Setya Hardi

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study evaluates Indonesia’s external sustainability by analyzing exports, imports, and net unilateral transfer payments. The study utilizes Indonesia’s data from the third quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2019, applying both a long-run dynamic model and a short-run forward-looking model incorporating triple shocks. This research excludes the period from 2020 onwards due to the economic upheaval in Indonesia resulting from the COVID-19 outbreak. This study concludes that Indonesia’s current account is unsustainable, as neither export nor import variables exhibit a long-term link, hence failing to meet intertemporal budget constraints. Furthermore, imports substantially influence long-term exports, which increase …

Exchange Rate And Indonesia Economic Growth, Ayi Supriyadi, Yanfitri Yanfitri, Trinil Arimurti, Sinta Atharinanda

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

We examine the effect of the exchange rate on the economy and the impact of the Dominant Currency Paradigm (DCP) on Indonesia’s export volume. This study employs multiple methodologies, namely the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the non-linear version of ARDL, and panel regressions. The findings indicated that the depreciation of the exchange rate influenced economic expansion. The beneficial effect was mitigated by the influence of finance as seen in the company’s financial sheet. The findings also indicate the influence of DCP on the volume of international trade in Indonesia.

Does Digital Finance Move Together With Technology Innovation In China?, Zhu Wenhui, Zhang Jiajie, Hu Chuanxia, Dong Hanwei

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

Existing academic research has predominantly examined the unidirectional impact of digital finance on technological innovation, thereby neglecting the reciprocal interplay between these two domains. This study fills this gap by investigating the long-term bidirectional cointegrated relationship between digital finance and technological innovation. Using panel cointegration estimation methods on panel data from 286 Chinese cities during 2011–2020, empirical results reveal a long-term co-movement between digital finance and technological innovation. Pooled Mean Group estimation demonstrates that digital finance makes significant contributions to technological innovation in both long-term and short-term contexts. However, sub-sample analyses show that digital finance consistently boosts technological innovation in …

From Disruption To Integration: Cryptocurrency Prices, Financial Fluctuations, And Macroeconomy, Zhengyang Chen

Faculty Publications

This paper examines cryptocurrency shock transmission to financial markets and the macroeconomy using a Bayesian structural VAR with Pandemic Priors from 2015 to 2024. By affecting overall risk appetite, cryptocurrency price shocks generate positive financial market spillovers, accounting for 18% of equity and 27% of commodity price fluctuations. Real economic effects are significant in driving investment but remain limited, contributing only 4% to unemployment and 6% to industrial production variance. However, cryptocurrency shocks explain 18% of price-level forecast error variance at long horizons. Narrative analysis reveals sentiment and technology as primary shock drivers. These findings demonstrate cryptocurrency's deep financial system …

Harnessing Zakat To Drive Inclusive Economic Growth: Prospects And Challenges, Moh Najikhul Fajri, Andini Kusumawardhani

Journal Of Middle East and Islamic Studies

This study aims to analyze the role of zakat in promoting local inclusive economic growth in Indonesia. This research uses secondary panel data of 34 provinces during 2017-2022. The analysis techniques used in this study include the Poverty Equivalent Growth Rate (PEGR) inclusive economic growth measurement method and the Static Panel Regression Fixed Effect Model. This study concludes that zakat is proven to be an effective instrument in promoting inclusive economic growth in Indonesia, with a significant impact on income distribution even though its potential is still not optimized. Unique findings reveal that inclusive growth recovered faster than GDP post-pandemic, …

The History Of Protectionism And Free Trade In The World: How Does It Impact Indonesia?, Dorothea Bening Larasati

Jurnal Vokasi Indonesia

International trade plays an important role in Indonesia's economy, with protectionism and free trade being the two main approaches in the country's trade policy. Protectionism, which aims to protect domestic industries by restricting imports, is often challenged in the face of the need to integrate global markets. In contrast, free trade seeks to open markets without barriers, which can accelerate economic growth and improve international relations. This research aims to explore the impact of protectionism and free trade policies on the Indonesian economy and provide recommendations for the government. The research uses a qualitative approach through a literature study that …

Islamic Approach Analysis Sustainable Development: The Role Of Geopolitical Risk On Environmental In Indonesia, Basri -. Basri, Muh. Asharif Suleman

Journal Of Middle East and Islamic Studies

Studi ini mengkaji faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi pembangunan berkelanjutan di Indonesia, dengan fokus pada kualitas lingkungan melalui perspektif Islam. Di tengah dinamika geopolitik global, risiko-risiko tersebut secara signifikan mempengaruhi kebijakan dan praktik lingkungan. Pendekatan Islam menawarkan kerangka kerja yang khas dengan mengintegrasikan nilai-nilai etika, spiritual, dan sosial ke dalam tata kelola lingkungan. Dengan menggunakan data deret waktu dari tahun 1992–2022 dan Model Koreksi Kesalahan Vektor (VECM), penelitian ini menganalisis hubungan jangka pendek dan jangka panjang antara risiko geopolitik, ketegasan kebijakan lingkungan, dan modal manusia terhadap kualitas lingkungan. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa risiko geopolitik memiliki efek jangka pendek yang signifikan tetapi tidak berdampak …

The Evolution Of Global Gold And Copper Trade Networks, Oleksandr Hulianskyi

Northeast Journal of Complex Systems (NEJCS)

Gold and copper have emerged as two of the most vital commodities in global trade. Despite serving distinct purposes, their international trade networks reveal interconnected patterns, critical to understanding the dynamics of global economics. This paper studies these attributes and their evolution during the last 36 years for both metals and finds correlations between them. The first part of the research is focused on the sustainability of networks through efficiency and robustness indexes; the second part is dedicated to interconnectedness – the Louvain and Bayesian SBM algorithms, partition, and modularity instruments are used. Community detection algorithms provide valuable insights into …

Bitcoin As A Currency: A Theoretical Framework Of Bitcoin’S Supply Effect On Consumption And Inflation, Begad Amr Hassan

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis examines the macroeconomic effects of Bitcoin's fixed money supply within a dynamic general equilibrium context. Traditional Keynesian economics proposes that central banks regulate the money supply through interest rate manipulation and monetary interventions to promote economic stability within the market. However, cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin, present a challenge due to their algorithmically predetermined supply, which halves every four years, removing discretionary monetary policy. By adapting Calvo's (1983) staggered-price model to a closed economy, supposing Bitcoin is the only medium of exchange, it is deduced that Bitcoin's deflationary nature causes a persistent consumption collapse and hyper deflationary spirals. Furthermore, calibrations …

The Impact Of The U.S.-China Tariff War On Trade And Investment In Developing Countries In Disrupted Global Value Chains, Teuku Riefky, Syahda Sabrina, Mohamad Dian Revindo

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

As the world is more open and more integrated than ever, the trade war between the two largest economies, the United States (U.S.) and China, has significant and unexpected implications for multinational companies within global value chains. Since both markets are closed to each other due to the imposition of higher import tariffs, businesses have to shift their trade activities to alternative countries. Employing historical data, existing country-level data from the Global Trade Analysis Project on Value-Added (GTAP-VA), and tariffs imposed during the U.S.-China trade war, this study comprehensively examines the impacts of the trade war on global value chains, …

Pension Funds For Housing Development In Indonesia: Challenges And Strategies, Thomas Soseco, Anggari Marya Kresnowati, Ayu Dwidyah Rini

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Housing infrastructure is necessary to improve the quality of life of the community, yet a recent assessment of housing infrastructure development in Indonesia highlights a low level of performance. Therefore, actions are needed to stimulate it through pension funds, which remain minimally utilized for direct investment in the housing sector. This research investigates the potential and challenges of using pension funds for housing investment in Indonesia, employing Input Output (IO) Analysis with data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS). The findings reveal a significant gap between the potential and realized pension fund investments, indicating the substantial capacity of pension funds to be …

Non-Tariff Measures On Indonesian Tea Products: Do Sps And Tbt Impede Or Promote The Export?, Fikri Aldi Dwi Putro, Widyastutik Widyastutik, Nia Kurniawati Hidayat

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Previous studies highlight the heterogeneous effects of Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs) on international trade. This study identifies the enforcement of NTMs and examines the effects on the export performance of Indonesian tea products. This study employed an inventory (coverage ratio) approach and panel regression with the Poisson-Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) method. The results indicate that 31 out of 36 analyzed destination countries enforce NTMs, with Vietnam imposing the most prevalent ones. Furthermore, SPS measures substantially promote the export of Indonesian tea products, whereas TBT measures show no significant effect. Therefore, the government needs to provide incentives and harmonize the national Voluntary …

Welfare Implication Of Alternative Tax Rates Adjustment Policy In Nigeria: A Dsge Analysis, Umar B. Ibrahim, Isah F. Abubakar

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study sets out to determine the desirable policy adjustment in the tax rate for Nigeria that ensures the least welfare cost. A calibrated small open-economy New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (NKDSGE) model of the Nigerian economy is applied to achieve this objective. Within this framework, we examined the impact of an increase in value-added tax (VAT) rate from 7.5 to 15 percent on key macroeconomic variables relative to the impact of an increase in company income tax (CIT) rate from 30 to 35 percent on macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, we examined the welfare costs of the increases in the …

Power And Progress, Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology And Prosperity, Jay Nathan

Journal of Global Awareness

No abstract provided.

General Education Assessment Report Form: Basic Macroeconomics, Oguzhan Batmaz

May Institute

No abstract provided.

The Long-Term Effect Of Universities On Local Technology, Dafina Rizvanolli

Master's Theses

This paper studies the long-term effects of universities on local economic complexity, contributing to new evidence on how higher education institutions shape local productive capabilities over time. While extensive research documents universities’ positive impact on development, fundamental questions remain about the mechanisms through which they operate. Our study employs the Economic Complexity Index (ECI), a measure that captures the diversity and ubiquity of regional economic structures, to provide novel insights into universities’ influence on local economies. Building on Andrews (2023), we exploit historical natural experiments in university site selection during the 19^th and 20^th centuries in the U.S. …

Accountability And Efficiency: Compiled Case Studies On Economic Development, Spending, And Global Markets, Jacob W. Grimsley

Honors Theses

This is a compilation of cases worked throughout the course of one year. These cases were created and assigned for an accountancy course focused on research and writing. The cases focus on accounting related topics, while also pertaining to political happenings as well as general economic topics.

Case 02 was completed in collaboration with other honors students, and these students are indicated on the page preceding this case.

Cases 05 and 06 pertain to a semester-long project focused on the development of a Mississippi based business. This case was also completed with the help of other students, as indicated on …

Asymmetric Recovery: Understanding The Differences In Commercial And Residential Recovery Patterns Following The 2008 Financial Crisis, Avery J. Flynn

Honors Theses

The 2008 financial crisis revealed differences in economic recovery patterns between businesses and households. This study analyzes the asymmetry in loan delinquency rates between commercial and residential sectors, with data showing commercial rates peaked at 8.51% in 2010 while residential rates reached 10.88%, followed by significantly different recovery trajectories.

The research investigates how differing legal protections created varying incentives to cut costs. Through analyzing Federal Reserve data, Census Bureau surveys, and expenditure records, this study found the commercial sector recovered 64% within three years of its peak, compared to only 17% for the residential sector.

During the recession, businesses reduced …