Macroeconomics Commons^™

From Disruption To Integration: Cryptocurrency Prices, Financial Fluctuations, And Macroeconomy, Zhengyang Chen

Faculty Publications

This paper examines cryptocurrency shock transmission to financial markets and the macroeconomy using a Bayesian structural VAR with Pandemic Priors from 2015 to 2024. By affecting overall risk appetite, cryptocurrency price shocks generate positive financial market spillovers, accounting for 18% of equity and 27% of commodity price fluctuations. Real economic effects are significant in driving investment but remain limited, contributing only 4% to unemployment and 6% to industrial production variance. However, cryptocurrency shocks explain 18% of price-level forecast error variance at long horizons. Narrative analysis reveals sentiment and technology as primary shock drivers. These findings demonstrate cryptocurrency's deep financial system …

Harnessing Zakat To Drive Inclusive Economic Growth: Prospects And Challenges, Moh Najikhul Fajri, Andini Kusumawardhani

Journal Of Middle East and Islamic Studies

This study aims to analyze the role of zakat in promoting local inclusive economic growth in Indonesia. This research uses secondary panel data of 34 provinces during 2017-2022. The analysis techniques used in this study include the Poverty Equivalent Growth Rate (PEGR) inclusive economic growth measurement method and the Static Panel Regression Fixed Effect Model. This study concludes that zakat is proven to be an effective instrument in promoting inclusive economic growth in Indonesia, with a significant impact on income distribution even though its potential is still not optimized. Unique findings reveal that inclusive growth recovered faster than GDP post-pandemic, …

The History Of Protectionism And Free Trade In The World: How Does It Impact Indonesia?, Dorothea Bening Larasati

Jurnal Vokasi Indonesia

International trade plays an important role in Indonesia's economy, with protectionism and free trade being the two main approaches in the country's trade policy. Protectionism, which aims to protect domestic industries by restricting imports, is often challenged in the face of the need to integrate global markets. In contrast, free trade seeks to open markets without barriers, which can accelerate economic growth and improve international relations. This research aims to explore the impact of protectionism and free trade policies on the Indonesian economy and provide recommendations for the government. The research uses a qualitative approach through a literature study that …

Islamic Approach Analysis Sustainable Development: The Role Of Geopolitical Risk On Environmental In Indonesia, Basri -. Basri, Muh. Asharif Suleman

Journal Of Middle East and Islamic Studies

Studi ini mengkaji faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi pembangunan berkelanjutan di Indonesia, dengan fokus pada kualitas lingkungan melalui perspektif Islam. Di tengah dinamika geopolitik global, risiko-risiko tersebut secara signifikan mempengaruhi kebijakan dan praktik lingkungan. Pendekatan Islam menawarkan kerangka kerja yang khas dengan mengintegrasikan nilai-nilai etika, spiritual, dan sosial ke dalam tata kelola lingkungan. Dengan menggunakan data deret waktu dari tahun 1992–2022 dan Model Koreksi Kesalahan Vektor (VECM), penelitian ini menganalisis hubungan jangka pendek dan jangka panjang antara risiko geopolitik, ketegasan kebijakan lingkungan, dan modal manusia terhadap kualitas lingkungan. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa risiko geopolitik memiliki efek jangka pendek yang signifikan tetapi tidak berdampak …

The Evolution Of Global Gold And Copper Trade Networks, Oleksandr Hulianskyi

Northeast Journal of Complex Systems (NEJCS)

Gold and copper have emerged as two of the most vital commodities in global trade. Despite serving distinct purposes, their international trade networks reveal interconnected patterns, critical to understanding the dynamics of global economics. This paper studies these attributes and their evolution during the last 36 years for both metals and finds correlations between them. The first part of the research is focused on the sustainability of networks through efficiency and robustness indexes; the second part is dedicated to interconnectedness – the Louvain and Bayesian SBM algorithms, partition, and modularity instruments are used. Community detection algorithms provide valuable insights into …

Bitcoin As A Currency: A Theoretical Framework Of Bitcoin’S Supply Effect On Consumption And Inflation, Begad Amr Hassan

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis examines the macroeconomic effects of Bitcoin's fixed money supply within a dynamic general equilibrium context. Traditional Keynesian economics proposes that central banks regulate the money supply through interest rate manipulation and monetary interventions to promote economic stability within the market. However, cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin, present a challenge due to their algorithmically predetermined supply, which halves every four years, removing discretionary monetary policy. By adapting Calvo's (1983) staggered-price model to a closed economy, supposing Bitcoin is the only medium of exchange, it is deduced that Bitcoin's deflationary nature causes a persistent consumption collapse and hyper deflationary spirals. Furthermore, calibrations …

Welfare Implication Of Alternative Tax Rates Adjustment Policy In Nigeria: A Dsge Analysis, Umar B. Ibrahim, Isah F. Abubakar

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study sets out to determine the desirable policy adjustment in the tax rate for Nigeria that ensures the least welfare cost. A calibrated small open-economy New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (NKDSGE) model of the Nigerian economy is applied to achieve this objective. Within this framework, we examined the impact of an increase in value-added tax (VAT) rate from 7.5 to 15 percent on key macroeconomic variables relative to the impact of an increase in company income tax (CIT) rate from 30 to 35 percent on macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, we examined the welfare costs of the increases in the …

The Impact Of The U.S.-China Tariff War On Trade And Investment In Developing Countries In Disrupted Global Value Chains, Teuku Riefky, Syahda Sabrina, Mohamad Dian Revindo

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

As the world is more open and more integrated than ever, the trade war between the two largest economies, the United States (U.S.) and China, has significant and unexpected implications for multinational companies within global value chains. Since both markets are closed to each other due to the imposition of higher import tariffs, businesses have to shift their trade activities to alternative countries. Employing historical data, existing country-level data from the Global Trade Analysis Project on Value-Added (GTAP-VA), and tariffs imposed during the U.S.-China trade war, this study comprehensively examines the impacts of the trade war on global value chains, …

Pension Funds For Housing Development In Indonesia: Challenges And Strategies, Thomas Soseco, Anggari Marya Kresnowati, Ayu Dwidyah Rini

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Housing infrastructure is necessary to improve the quality of life of the community, yet a recent assessment of housing infrastructure development in Indonesia highlights a low level of performance. Therefore, actions are needed to stimulate it through pension funds, which remain minimally utilized for direct investment in the housing sector. This research investigates the potential and challenges of using pension funds for housing investment in Indonesia, employing Input Output (IO) Analysis with data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS). The findings reveal a significant gap between the potential and realized pension fund investments, indicating the substantial capacity of pension funds to be …

Non-Tariff Measures On Indonesian Tea Products: Do Sps And Tbt Impede Or Promote The Export?, Fikri Aldi Dwi Putro, Widyastutik Widyastutik, Nia Kurniawati Hidayat

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Previous studies highlight the heterogeneous effects of Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs) on international trade. This study identifies the enforcement of NTMs and examines the effects on the export performance of Indonesian tea products. This study employed an inventory (coverage ratio) approach and panel regression with the Poisson-Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) method. The results indicate that 31 out of 36 analyzed destination countries enforce NTMs, with Vietnam imposing the most prevalent ones. Furthermore, SPS measures substantially promote the export of Indonesian tea products, whereas TBT measures show no significant effect. Therefore, the government needs to provide incentives and harmonize the national Voluntary …

Power And Progress, Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology And Prosperity, Jay Nathan

Journal of Global Awareness

No abstract provided.

General Education Assessment Report Form: Basic Macroeconomics, Oguzhan Batmaz

May Institute

No abstract provided.

The Long-Term Effect Of Universities On Local Technology, Dafina Rizvanolli

Master's Theses

This paper studies the long-term effects of universities on local economic complexity, contributing to new evidence on how higher education institutions shape local productive capabilities over time. While extensive research documents universities’ positive impact on development, fundamental questions remain about the mechanisms through which they operate. Our study employs the Economic Complexity Index (ECI), a measure that captures the diversity and ubiquity of regional economic structures, to provide novel insights into universities’ influence on local economies. Building on Andrews (2023), we exploit historical natural experiments in university site selection during the 19^th and 20^th centuries in the U.S. …

Accountability And Efficiency: Compiled Case Studies On Economic Development, Spending, And Global Markets, Jacob W. Grimsley

Honors Theses

This is a compilation of cases worked throughout the course of one year. These cases were created and assigned for an accountancy course focused on research and writing. The cases focus on accounting related topics, while also pertaining to political happenings as well as general economic topics.

Case 02 was completed in collaboration with other honors students, and these students are indicated on the page preceding this case.

Cases 05 and 06 pertain to a semester-long project focused on the development of a Mississippi based business. This case was also completed with the help of other students, as indicated on …

Asymmetric Recovery: Understanding The Differences In Commercial And Residential Recovery Patterns Following The 2008 Financial Crisis, Avery J. Flynn

Honors Theses

The 2008 financial crisis revealed differences in economic recovery patterns between businesses and households. This study analyzes the asymmetry in loan delinquency rates between commercial and residential sectors, with data showing commercial rates peaked at 8.51% in 2010 while residential rates reached 10.88%, followed by significantly different recovery trajectories.

The research investigates how differing legal protections created varying incentives to cut costs. Through analyzing Federal Reserve data, Census Bureau surveys, and expenditure records, this study found the commercial sector recovered 64% within three years of its peak, compared to only 17% for the residential sector.

During the recession, businesses reduced …

Essays On Institutions And Human Capital, Xiaofan Zhu

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation investigates the critical role of political and culturally embedded institutions in shaping human capital investment and firm behavior, focusing on three distinct but related areas. Chapter 1 investigates how institutional quality influences educational choices in China, with a focus on behavioral responses to the anti-corruption campaign. The study finds that politically connected students from regions more a!ected by the campaign are significantly more likely to pursue further education – especially those with non-STEM majors, weaker academic performance, and stronger political ties. The analysis of underlying mechanisms suggests that as the employment environment became more equitable, connected individuals responded …

Essays On Macroeconomics, Krishna Sharma

All Dissertations

The first chapter examines the role of return migration in driving innovation within India’s tech startup ecosystem, using a novel dataset constructed from web scraping of startup profiles, LinkedIn data, and patent databases. By capturing founders’ international experience, education, and innovation outcomes, the analysis reveals that returnees significantly contribute to higher inno- vation levels, particularly through patent filings. Returnee-founded startups exhibit an 18% higher rate of patent filings compared to those led by locals. The study employs OLS, Poisson regression, Coarsened Exact Matching (CEM), and Instrumental Variables (IV) to address selection bias and endogeneity concerns. U.S. immigration policy changes provide …

Sustainable Agricultural Practices And Societal Impacts: A Case Study In Central Belize, Lily Hunt

Economics Undergraduate Honors Theses

This thesis examines the relationship between climate change, sustainable agriculture, and rural development through a case study in Central Belize. Built from observations, interviews, and academic research gathered during a summer internship with the Belize Ministry of Agriculture, the research explores the challenges small farmers face as they navigate worsening climate threats - including drought, wildfire, and resource scarcity. With climate change accelerating at a faster rate in Belize than in many other countries, agricultural resilience has become a national priority. This internship focused on collecting applications for the Sustainable and Inclusive Belize Program, a government initiative that provides financial …

Almost Last Again? Mississippi's Labor Force Participation Rate: Causes And Solutions, John Martin Fox

Honors Theses

Mississippi is currently ranked second to last in labor force participation rate in the country. This is the latest damning statistic inhibiting the state from growing and becoming a more nationally recognized state with higher economic output. This thesis examines how Mississippi arrived at this bleak labor force participation rate and what is currently ongoing to alleviate it. It also examines some possible proposed solutions to accelerate those efforts. Through extensive research and numerous interviews with officials from public and private sector employees directly dealing with this predicament, this thesis has assembled a thorough and comprehensive picture of how the …

Is Aid Good For The Poor In Sub-Saharan Africa?, Elisha Mavodyo

Business Review

We contribute to the aid-poverty literature in Sub-Saharan Africa in two fundamental respects. First, we sidestep the controversial aid-growth-poverty relationship by analysing the direct impacts of aid on poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa. Second, in line with previous studies, we first analysed the impact of aid on poverty headcount, poverty gap, and poverty gap squared. We complemented this analysis with an analysis of the direct impact of aid on the incomes of the poor, followed by an analysis of aid on inequality. Such an approach allowed us to draw nuanced conclusions about how effective foreign aid is in alleviating not just …