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The Economic Impact Of Lockdowns: A Theoretical Assessment, Gabriele Camera, Alessandro Gioffré 2021 Chapman University

The Economic Impact Of Lockdowns: A Theoretical Assessment, Gabriele Camera, Alessandro Gioffré

ESI Working Papers

The sudden appearance of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic triggered extreme and open-ended “lockdowns” to manage the disease. Should these drastic interventions be the blueprint for future epidemics? We construct an analytical framework, based on the theory of random matching, which makes explicit how epidemics spread through economic activity. Imposing lockdowns by assumption prevents contagion and reduces healthcare costs, but also disrupts income-generation processes. We characterize how lockdowns impact the contagion process and social welfare. Numerical analysis suggests that protracted, open-ended lockdowns are generally suboptimal, bringing into question the policy responses seen in many countries.


Making It Public: The Effect Of (Private And Public) Wage Proposals On Efficiency And Income Distribution, Lara Ezquerra, Joaquín Gómez-Miñambres, Natalia Jiminez, Praveen Kujal 2021 Universidad de las Islas Baleares

Making It Public: The Effect Of (Private And Public) Wage Proposals On Efficiency And Income Distribution, Lara Ezquerra, Joaquín Gómez-Miñambres, Natalia Jiminez, Praveen Kujal

ESI Working Papers

The implications of (public or private) pre-play communication and information revelation in a labour relationship is not well understood. We address these implications theoretically and experimentally. In our baseline experiments, the employer offers a wage to the worker who may then accept or reject it. In the public and private treatment, workers, moving first, make a non-binding private or public wage proposal. Our theoretical model assumes that wage proposals convey information about a worker’s minimum acceptable wage and are misreported with a certain probability. It predicts that, on average, wage proposals lead to higher wage offers and acceptance rates ...


An Experimental Study Of Within- And Cross-Cultural Cooperation: Chinese And American Play In The Prisoner’S Dilemma Game, Michael Kuroda, Jieran Li, Jason Shachat, Lijia Wei, Bochen Zhu 2021 Chapman University

An Experimental Study Of Within- And Cross-Cultural Cooperation: Chinese And American Play In The Prisoner’S Dilemma Game, Michael Kuroda, Jieran Li, Jason Shachat, Lijia Wei, Bochen Zhu

ESI Working Papers

We study whether cross- and within-culture groups have different cooperation rates in the Prisoner’s Dilemma Game. In an experiment, university students in China and America engage in a single iteration of the game, complete belief elicitation tasks regarding their opponents’ play and take a survey including attitudinal measurements regarding their in- and out-group attitudes. Cooperation rates are higher across the two countries are higher in both cross-culture and in within-culture interactions, although not significantly. We also find that Chinese participants cooperate less than American ones. Further, female Chinese participants are more cooperative than Chinese male ones. In the cross-culture ...


Economics Of Majoritarian Identity Politics, Rohit Ticku, Raghul S. Venkatesh 2021 Chapman University

Economics Of Majoritarian Identity Politics, Rohit Ticku, Raghul S. Venkatesh

ESI Working Papers

Majoritarian identity politics has become salient in representative democracies. Why do parties engage in identity politics and what are its consequences? We present a model of electoral competition in which parties capture voter groups based on their identity, and compete over an economic policy platform for the support of non-partisan voters. In addition, the party that caters to majoritarian interests makes a costly investment in polarizing identity. The investment provides subsequent payoffs to voters who have a preference for identity. When voter preferences over policy platforms are idiosyncratic in nature, greater investment in polarizing identity (i) increases both parties’ rents ...


The Contribution Of Mining Sector To Sustainable Development In Saudi Arabia, Mourad Zmami, Ousama Ben-Salha, Sultan O. Almarshad, Houyem Chekki 2021 Northern Border University

The Contribution Of Mining Sector To Sustainable Development In Saudi Arabia, Mourad Zmami, Ousama Ben-Salha, Sultan O. Almarshad, Houyem Chekki

Journal of Sustainable Mining

The mining sector development is among the priorities of the Saudi Vision 2030. There is currently a lot of interest in the role of the mining sector in Saudi Arabia. This research contributes to this debate by empirically assessing the effects of mining on sustainable development in Saudi Arabia during the period 1980-2018. Unlike many previous studies, the three sustainable development dimensions, namely economic, social, and environmental, are jointly considered. The cointegration analysis, based on the ARDL, Gregory-Hansen, and combined cointegration tests, confirms the existence of long-run relationships between mining and all sustainable development dimensions. Furthermore, the findings lend substantial ...


Group-Identity And Long-Run Cooperation: An Experiment, Gabriele Camera, Lukas Hohl 2021 Chapman University

Group-Identity And Long-Run Cooperation: An Experiment, Gabriele Camera, Lukas Hohl

ESI Working Papers

We stress-test the limits of the power of group identity in the context of cooperation by constructing laboratory economies where participants confront an indefinitely repeated social dilemma as strangers. Group identity is artificially induced by random assignment to color-coded groups, and reinforced by an initial cooperation task played in-group and in fixed pairs. Subsequently subjects interact in-group and out-group in large economies, as strangers. Indefinite repetition guarantees full cooperation is an equilibrium. Decision-makers can discriminate based on group affiliation, but cannot observe past behaviors. We find no evidence of group biases. This suggests that group effects are less likely to ...


Do Conditional Cash Transfers Increase School Enrollment? Evidence From Brazil, Jeanette L. Silvernale 2021 University of San Francisco

Do Conditional Cash Transfers Increase School Enrollment? Evidence From Brazil, Jeanette L. Silvernale

Master's Theses

Conditional cash transfer programs have been widely deployed across the globe. They seek to bolster human capital by providing benefits contingent upon a variety of actions such as school attendance and regular health checkups. Bolsa Familia is the most extensive conditional cash transfer program, serving 46 million Brazilian citizens. Despite its expansive size, there have been seldom large-scale micro evaluations of the program. Limited data has resulted in small sample sizes drawn from a single point in time. Our study diverges from the rest and utilizes a novel administrative dataset with an overall sample of nearly 60 million and a ...


Evaluación De Las Expectativas De La Inflación Para Colombia Entre 2000 Y 2018, Nidia Astrid Suarez Zuñiga 2021 Universidad de La Salle, Bogotá

Evaluación De Las Expectativas De La Inflación Para Colombia Entre 2000 Y 2018, Nidia Astrid Suarez Zuñiga

Economía

En esta investigación se analiza la formación de las expectativas de inflación en Colombia, mediante la exploración de algunos de los determinantes de las expectativas y se evalúa su capacidad de predecir el comportamiento hacia futuro de la inflación. Colombia es un país que se rige por un sistema de inflación objetivo, el cual mantiene dentro de un rango meta a la inflación, con el fin de promover un crecimiento sostenido del PIB, en esta perspectiva, la política monetaria es importante al momento de reducir la incertidumbre en las expectativas de inflación; para lo cual el Banco de la República ...


Application Of Garch Type Models In Forecasting Value At Risk, Katayoon Naimian 2021 University of Windsor

Application Of Garch Type Models In Forecasting Value At Risk, Katayoon Naimian

Major Papers

Dynamic risk management requires the risk measures to adapt to information at different times, such that this dynamic framework takes into account the time consistency of risk measures interrelated at different times. The value-at-risk (VaR) is one of the most well-known downside risk measures due to its intuitive meaning and a broad range of applications in practice, however, the static version embraces more popularity. This study investigates dynamic VaR modeling using four conditional volatility forecasting models: GARCH, TGARCH, GJRGARCH, and IGARCH, and compares the forecasting output of the suggested GARCH-based volatility models. Since the predictive accuracy of Value-at-Risk (VaR) models ...


Classical Theory Of Competitive Market Price Formation, Sabiou M. Inoua, Vernon L. Smith 2021 Chapman University

Classical Theory Of Competitive Market Price Formation, Sabiou M. Inoua, Vernon L. Smith

ESI Working Papers

We offer an information theory of market price formation, formalizing and elaborating on an old, implicit, classical tradition of supply and demand based on buyers’ and sellers’ mone-tary valuations of commodities (formally their reservation prices) and competition as a multilat-eral higgling and bargaining process. The early laboratory market experiments, as it turns out with hindsight, established the remarkable stability, efficiency, and robustness of the old view of competitive price discovery, and not the neoclassical price theory (based on individual utility and profit maximization for given prices). Herein, we present a partial-equilibrium version of the the-ory in which wealth is implicitly ...


Three Essays On Spatial Econometrics: The Matrix Exponential Spatial Specification, Ye Yang 2021 The Graduate Center, City University of New York

Three Essays On Spatial Econometrics: The Matrix Exponential Spatial Specification, Ye Yang

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This thesis consists of three essays on the matrix exponential spatial specification. In the first essay, we study the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation of matrix exponential spatial specification(p,q) (MESS(p,q)). We extend the model to a general higher order case and derive its GMM estimator. The large sample properties are also studied. Under homoskedasticity a best GMM estimator (BGMME) is derived and shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. Under heteroskedasticity an optimal GMM estimator (OGMME) is derived and shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal as well. Monte Carlo experiments that discuss the large ...


Essays In Financial Econometrics And Machine Learning, Fred Liu 2021 The University of Western Ontario

Essays In Financial Econometrics And Machine Learning, Fred Liu

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

Financial econometrics is a highly interdisciplinary field that integrates finance, economics, probability, statistics, and applied mathematics. Machine learning is a growing area in finance that is particularly suitable for studying problems with many variables. My thesis contains three chapters that explore financial econometrics and machine learning in the fields of asset pricing and risk management.

Chapter 2 studies the implications of the new Basel 3 regulations. In 2019, the BCBS finalized the Basel 3 regulatory regime, which changes the regulatory measure of market risk and adds new complex calculations based on liquidity and risk factors. This chapter is motivated by ...


The Health Costs Of Political Identity: Evidence From Public Safety Responses In The Us And A Natural Experiment In California, Sahiba Chopra 2021 The University of San Francisco

The Health Costs Of Political Identity: Evidence From Public Safety Responses In The Us And A Natural Experiment In California, Sahiba Chopra

Master's Theses

The Covid-19 pandemic has brought political polarization in the US to the forefront of the battle against coronavirus. We find that for every one percentage point increase in votes for Trump there are 881 more Covid-19 cases and 17 more Covid-19 deaths. We find that these results are motivated by political identity as it is mediated through public safety behaviors like maskwearing and social distancing. In addition, a natural experiment in California during the first half of the pandemic in the US finds that 36% of the Covid-19 cases at the census tract level in California can be associated with ...


Temperature Effects On Prevalence Of Sexually Transmitted Infections Among At-Risk Female Sex Workers In India, Rajshri Suresh 2021 The University of San Francisco

Temperature Effects On Prevalence Of Sexually Transmitted Infections Among At-Risk Female Sex Workers In India, Rajshri Suresh

Master's Theses

Vulnerability to climate change varies depending on the baseline climate, sensitivity to given exposure, and the presence of social, political, cultural, and institutional inequalities that influence access to essential resources of livelihood, particularly among informal labor market participants. Within the risky informal labor market, the transient nature of sex work implies that sex workers suffer disproportional losses in health, income, protection, and other aspects of general well-being as a result of the effects of climate anomalies. In this paper, I investigate the effect of temperature on the prevalence of sexually transmitted infections in a high-risk population of female sex workers ...


Identification Of Resource Extraction Technologies When The Resource Stock Is Unobservable, Helle Bunzel, Larry Perruso, Quinn Weninger 2021 Iowa State University

Identification Of Resource Extraction Technologies When The Resource Stock Is Unobservable, Helle Bunzel, Larry Perruso, Quinn Weninger

Economics Working Papers

This paper consistently estimates key structural properties of a multiple-species fishing technology. We overcome two ubiquitous features of fisheries data generating processes that invalidate classical estimation of fishing technologies: unobservability by the researcher but partial observability of the fish stock by fishermen and endogenous production decisions that vary with fishermen’s private knowledge of true stock abundance. Our identification strategy exploits timing and available information when production decision are made, technological constraints, and natural, exogenous variability of fish stock abundance. Consistency in estimation obtains under reasonable assumptions for fisheries data generating processes. An application to the U.S. Gulf of ...


An Inferentially Robust Look At Two Competing Explanations For The Surge In Unauthorized Migration From Central America, Nick Santos 2021 University of San Diego

An Inferentially Robust Look At Two Competing Explanations For The Surge In Unauthorized Migration From Central America, Nick Santos

Dissertations

The last 8 years have seen a dramatic increase in the flow of Central American apprehensions by the U.S. Border Patrol. Explanations for this surge in apprehensions have been split between two leading hypotheses. Most academic scholars, immigrant advocates, progressive media outlets, and human rights organizations identify poverty and violence (the Poverty and Violence Hypothesis) in Central America as the primary triggers responsible. In contrast, while most government officials, conservative think tanks, and the agencies that work in the immigration and border enforcement realm admit poverty and violence may underlie some decisions to migrate, they instead blame lax U ...


Latent Local-To-Unity Models, Jun Yu 2021 Singapore Management University

Latent Local-To-Unity Models, Jun Yu

SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series

This paper proposes a class of state-space models where the state equation is a local-to-unity process. The large sample theory is obtained for the least squares (LS) estimator of the autoregressive (AR) parameter in the AR representation of the model under two sets of conditions. In the first set of conditions, the error term in the observation equation is independent and identically distributed (iid), and the error term in the state equation is stationary and fractionally integrated with memory parameter H ϵ 2 (0; 1). It is shown that both the rate of convergence and the asymptotic distribution of the ...


Environmental Policy And Employment: The Effect Of The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative On The Labor Market, Kelly-Anne Moffa 2021 University of Connecticut

Environmental Policy And Employment: The Effect Of The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative On The Labor Market, Kelly-Anne Moffa

Honors Scholar Theses

This paper estimates the impacts that the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, implemented in 2009, has had on labor market outcomes within the policy region. The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative is a carbon cap-and-trade program that consists of ten states in the Northeast. Using a difference-in-difference framework, I found that, overall, there was no significant impact on the annual employment growth rate because of RGGI. When broken down into industry-specific effects, most industries still had no significant employment effects, although the mining industry did see a weakly significant 0.09 percentage point decrease in its annual employment growth rate. These estimates ...


Workplace Environment And Worker Sorting: Evidence From Advertised Corporate Culture, Jungho LEE 2021 Singapore Management University

Workplace Environment And Worker Sorting: Evidence From Advertised Corporate Culture, Jungho Lee

Research Collection School Of Economics

I document advertised corporate culture among start-up companies from an online job board. Two corporate-culture types emerge: one that concerns the well-being of employees (employee-oriented culture) and another that emphasizes other values, such as customers. The employee-oriented culture attracts 20% more applications than the other culture type. Jobs posted by firms advocating the employee-oriented culture oer 7% lower salaries than measurably similar jobs. I show some firms adopt a particular culture popular among
employees to attract workers at a lower cost. Firms' strategic choice of their culture can generate a distributional impact on wages and firm performance through worker sorting.


On Factor Models With Random Missing: Em Estimation, Inference, And Cross Validation, Sainan JIN, Ke MIAO, Liangjun SU 2021 Singapore Management University

On Factor Models With Random Missing: Em Estimation, Inference, And Cross Validation, Sainan Jin, Ke Miao, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider the estimation and inference in approximate factor models with random missing values. We show that with the low rank structure of the common component, we can estimate the factors and factor loadings consistently with the missing values replaced by zeros. We establish the asymptotic distributions of the resulting estimators and those based on the EM algorithm. We also propose a cross validation-based method to determine the number of factors in factor models with or without missing values and justify its consistency. Simulations demonstrate that our cross validation method is robust to fat tails in the error distribution and ...


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