Macroeconomics Commons^™

Marketcrafters: The 100-Year Struggle To Shape The American Economy, Jay Nathan

Journal of Global Awareness

No abstract provided.

Letter From The Editor, Jay Nathan

Journal of Global Awareness

No abstract provided.

Firms Heterogeneity In Indonesia’S Manufacturing And Services Sectors, Rizki Nauli Siregar

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Firm heterogeneity is the building block of modern trade theories. One of its important implications is that comparative advantage is driven by firm productivity, rather than sector differences across countries. Despite the prevalence of this framework, there has not been any systematic documentation on firm heterogeneity in Indonesia’s man ufacturing and services firms. Using the World Bank Enterprise Survey (WBES) data for Indonesia in 2015 and 2023, we confirm that there is firm heterogeneity in the form of size and productivity dispersion in both of the economy’s manufacturing and services sectors. We also find no strong association between size and …

The Moderating Effect Of Income Inequality On The Income–Emissions Relationship In G20 Countries, Zahra Rizky Fadilah, Budiasih Budiasih

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This study analyzes the moderating effect of income inequality on the income–emissions relationship in the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) framework. Findings indicate that the relationship is inverted U-shaped in middle-income G20 countries, but monotonically increasing in high-income G20 countries. Interestingly, income inequality moderates this relationship only in the latter group. These findings suggest that middle-income G20 countries should focus on raising income per capita to mitigate environmental degradation, while their high-income counterparts need to prioritize reducing income inequality to effectively decouple income from emissions.

Trade Dependency And Resilience: An Analysis Of Egypt’S Wheat Import Dynamics During The Russia-Ukraine War, Maha Elhini, Jomana M. Eiisa, Rasha Hammam

Economics

Purpose

Provided that Egypt is the world’s largest wheat importer, the conflict between its primary suppliers presents significant challenges to its trade stability and food security. This paper aims to investigate the impacts of the Russia–Ukraine (RU) war on Egypt’s trade dynamics, with a particular focus on wheat imports over the period 1995–2023.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) model to estimate the relationship between macroeconomic variables and Egypt’s trade performance, as well as agricultural determinants and wheat import dynamics.

Findings

The empirical results show that Egypt’s GDP growth rate and its exchange rate have …

Investigating The Relationship Between Noun Classes And Plant Folk Taxonomy In Chasu Language Of Kilimanjaro Region In Tanzania, Peter Rabson Mziray

Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences

The current study investigates the relationship between noun classes and plant folk taxonomy in Chasu (G 22). The study focuses on two objectives: the first objective is to describe the plant folk taxonomy in Chasu and the second objective is to determine the relationship between noun classes and plant folk taxonomy in Chasu. Data were collected from rural villages in Same and Mwanga districts by using free listing, field interviews (jungle-walk-and-identify), and written texts containing Chasu plant names. The findings reveal that Chasu folk taxonomy reflects different ethnobotanical categories; including a unique beginner which is mmea/mimea ‘plant(s)’, and three life …

Independence Of Central Banks In Nondemocratic Regimes: Implications For Price Stability, Abeeb O. Olaniran, Umar B. Ndako

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study examines the impact of central bank independence on inflation in nondemocratic regimes, with a specific focus on the differences between Islamic and nonIslamic groups. It utilizes nonstationary heterogeneous panels to estimate both the longrun and short-run responses of inflation to central bank independence. Additionally, it employs a panel smooth transition regression model to identify any potential threshold effects in this relationship. Our findings reveal an inverse relationship between central bank independence and inflation rates for both groups in the long run. Our result suggests that non-Islamic authoritarian countries may struggle more than Islamic ones to maintain price stability …

Early Warning Models For Anticipating Crisis: Insights From Sri Lanka, K P Prabheesh, Vishuddhi Jayawickrema

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

The study investigates how well early warning systems can predict currency crises in Sri Lanka, with special attention given to deviations in credit and business cycles as potential indicators. The research incorporates domestic and international factors, as well as credit and business cycle indicators, to anticipate currency crises. It uses multiple approaches such as exchange rate pressure index for crisis identification, signalling approach and logit regression for examining the predictive capacity of the indicators. Using quarterly data from 1997 to 2022, the study identifies seven crisis events in the country. Our empirical findings show that before the currency crises, credit …

Testing Fractional Inflation Persistence In The West African Monetary Zone, Afees A. Salisu, Nuruddeen Usman, Godday Uwawunkonye Ebuh

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

Understanding inflation persistence is of utmost significance for monetary policymakers in an era of heightened global economic interdependence and increased susceptibility to external shocks. Thus, this study examines the dynamics of inflation within the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ), employing both conventional and innovative econometric methods, notably Fractional integration and Fractionally Cointegrated Vector AutoRegressive (FCVAR) models. Our analysis reveals a compelling paradox in the persistence of inflation. Conventional methodologies suggest a robust inertia with high persistence levels nearing unity. Conversely, Fractional Integration paints a more intricate portrait, indicating a dynamic, less persistent behavior with persistence values notably below 0.5. Crucially, …

Do Financial Concerns Make Workers Less Productive?, Dua Khowaja

2025 Fall Honors Capstones Projects - Archive

Financial stress does not just affect people’s finances; it can change the way individuals behave. This project asks whether short-term financial difficulty damages worker performance or if alleviating it improves focus and accuracy. Using data from a field experiment in rural India, this study examine how labor payment timing variability is related to workers' productivity and error rates. The study randomized payment dates across a sample of employees, so that employees paid early can be compared to employees paid on standard or later dates. It investigates whether subsidy of payments relieves stress and enhances task performance by minimizing stress, enhancing …

**Human Capital Migration And International Trade: A Comparative Case Study Of Germany And Austria, 2000 To 2024**, Jahnvi Jha

2025 Fall Honors Capstones Projects - Archive

This study examines migration of people and international trade in Germany and Austria between 2000 and 2024. Both countries saw sharp rises in immigrant populations, with foreign-born residents reaching 18 percent in Germany and 22 percent in Austria, while their exports grew to record levels. The research explores whether human capital migration like workers bringing skills, education, and networks has complemented or substituted trade. Evidence shows migration often reduces barriers to commerce by creating trust, demand for home-country goods, and professional connections. Skilled workers in high-tech industries further boost export capacity. Contrary to fears that migrants might weaken competitiveness, the …

Comparative Evaluation Of Estimation Techniques For Purchasing Power Parity In African Countries Using The Country-Product-Dummy Regression Framework, Rokibat Adeola Tijani, Taiwo Abideen Lasisi, Dahud Kehinde Shangodoyin, Olasunkanmi James Oladapo

Al-Bahir

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is a popular macroeconomic analysis metric used to compare economic productivity and standards of living between countries. This study examines the estimation of PPP within the International Comparison Program (ICP) at Basic Heading (BH) level stage and leverages on the data from the 2011 ICP round. Focusing on five BHs out of 12 BHs across 50 Africa countries, to empirically evaluate the validity of the classical Ordinary Least Square (OLS) assumptions in the estimation of Country Product Dummy (CPD) regressions. Given the widespread use of OLS for BH level PPP computation, a rigorous examination of these …

Analisis Dampak Kebijakan Insentif Fiskal Terhadap Tingkat Komponen Dalam Negeri (Tkdn) Industri Manufaktur Di Indonesia, Muhammad Muhammad, Riyanto Riyanto

Jurnal Kebijakan Ekonomi

Over the last decade, the manufacturing sector's contribution to Indonesia's economy has declined. In 2010, it was 29.10% of GDP, but by 2022, it had dropped to 19.14%. Employment in the sector also fell, from 14.91% of the workforce in 2010 to 13.80% in 2022. To reverse this trend, the government introduced a policy to boost the Domestic Component Level (DCL) in manufacturing. By offering fiscal incentives to industries meeting certain DCL targets, the government aims to drive economic growth and job creation. A study using BPS data from 2008-2019 shows that this policy raised DCL by 23.5%.

Forgoing Nuclear: Nuclear Power Plant Closures And Carbon Emissions In The United States, Luke Petach

Faculty Scholarship

This paper examines the effect of nuclear power plant decommissioning on electricity generation and carbon emissions in the United States. Using data on nuclear reactor closures in the United States between 1993 and 2022 and data on state-level carbon emissions and electricity generation from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), this paper adopts a difference-in- differences (DiD) approach to estimate the effect of nuclear decommissioning. Two-way fixed-effects (TWFE) DiD estimates suggest a nuclear plant closure increases annual state-level per capita carbon emissions between 6% and 8%. The increase in state-level carbon emissions is driven by a substitution toward fossil fuel electricity—particularly …

Three Essays In International Trade And Macroeconomics, Jun Nie

Economics Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation examines the impact of international trade and trade policy on key economic outcomes, including income and productivity. The first chapter investigates the role of trade-induced technology diffusion in shaping global income inequality. When bilateral trade facilitates technology transfer, such diffusion can account for up to 85% of the income gap across countries. The second chapter focuses on the determinants of international trade in services. It highlights a significant link between service and manufacturing trade, conditional on the presence of foreign direct investment (FDI) relationships between trading partners. The third chapter evaluates the 2020 U.S. presidential election, aiming to …

Tracking Impact: Leveraging Pre-Existing Monitoring Tools For Assessing Indonesia’S Free Nutritious Meal (Makan Bergizi Gratis) Programme, Putu Geniki Lavinia Natih

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Indonesia’s Makan Bergizi Gratis (MBG) programme is among the largest school feeding initiatives globally, yet its rapid scale-up has outpaced the development of a robust monitoring, evaluation, and learning (MEL) framework capable of assessing welfare-relevant outcomes. This paper examines whether pre-existing national survey instruments can be leveraged to strengthen outcome monitoring in the absence of MBG-specific microdata. Focusing on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) collected through Indonesia’s National Socio-Economic Survey (Susenas), the study first situates experiential food insecurity within Indonesia’s broader food security landscape. It then applies a propensity score matching framework using participation in the Bantuan Pangan Non-Tunai …

The Evolution Of Schooling: From Industrial Obedience To Techno-Autonomy, Seb Taylor, Ron Roberts Ii

Digital Laboratory: Publisher of Internet Journal

This paper examines the enduring architecture of the American education system as a mechanism designed for compliance, not creativity. Rooted in 19th-century industrial logic, the structure of schooling, its physical design, time constraints, and assessment methods, has remained largely static despite seismic cultural and technological shifts. Through historical analysis and contemporary critique, this work interrogates the persistence of standardized methods, institutional prestige, and top-down instruction as barriers to meaningful learning and value creation. Drawing from interdisciplinary research and live case studies, including Alpha School’s AI-powered, mastery-based model, the paper advances the concept of techno-education: a student-centered paradigm informed by feedback …

Triple Shock On External Sustainability In Indonesia, Aloysius Deno Hervino, Insukindro Insukindro, Sekar Utami Setiastuti, Amirullah Setya Hardi

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study evaluates Indonesia’s external sustainability by analyzing exports, imports, and net unilateral transfer payments. The study utilizes Indonesia’s data from the third quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2019, applying both a long-run dynamic model and a short-run forward-looking model incorporating triple shocks. This research excludes the period from 2020 onwards due to the economic upheaval in Indonesia resulting from the COVID-19 outbreak. This study concludes that Indonesia’s current account is unsustainable, as neither export nor import variables exhibit a long-term link, hence failing to meet intertemporal budget constraints. Furthermore, imports substantially influence long-term exports, which increase …

Exchange Rate And Indonesia Economic Growth, Ayi Supriyadi, Yanfitri Yanfitri, Trinil Arimurti, Sinta Atharinanda

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

We examine the effect of the exchange rate on the economy and the impact of the Dominant Currency Paradigm (DCP) on Indonesia’s export volume. This study employs multiple methodologies, namely the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the non-linear version of ARDL, and panel regressions. The findings indicated that the depreciation of the exchange rate influenced economic expansion. The beneficial effect was mitigated by the influence of finance as seen in the company’s financial sheet. The findings also indicate the influence of DCP on the volume of international trade in Indonesia.

Does Digital Finance Move Together With Technology Innovation In China?, Zhu Wenhui, Zhang Jiajie, Hu Chuanxia, Dong Hanwei

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

Existing academic research has predominantly examined the unidirectional impact of digital finance on technological innovation, thereby neglecting the reciprocal interplay between these two domains. This study fills this gap by investigating the long-term bidirectional cointegrated relationship between digital finance and technological innovation. Using panel cointegration estimation methods on panel data from 286 Chinese cities during 2011–2020, empirical results reveal a long-term co-movement between digital finance and technological innovation. Pooled Mean Group estimation demonstrates that digital finance makes significant contributions to technological innovation in both long-term and short-term contexts. However, sub-sample analyses show that digital finance consistently boosts technological innovation in …