Macroeconomics Commons^™

The Relationship Between Monetary Policy And The Stock Market Cycle: An Empirical Study In Vietnam, Nhung Thuy Tran

The Indonesian Capital Market Review

The study examines the relationship between monetary policy and the stock market cycle in Vietnam. Using data from 2007 to 2022 and employing a VAR model, we estimate the impact of monetary policy factors on stock market cycle variables. The findings confirm a two-way causal relationship between monetary policy and the stock market cycle. However, the influence of cyclical fluctuations on the monetary policy transmission mechanism is weak, exhibits a lag, and predominantly occurs in the medium and long term. These results indicate that Vietnam's monetary policy requires time to absorb financial shocks and adjust to economic conditions. The study …

Future Landscape Of The Economy, Wali Ullah, Fatima Sadik

Faculty Research - Book Chapters and Conference Papers

Key factors contributing to underwhelming economic growth include low private sector investment, high interest rates, slow momentum in credit to the private sector, deteriorating law and order conditions, ongoing political uncertainty, and historically low global economic growth. Econometric projections of key macroeconomic indicators, including GDP growth rate and inflation, for the next three fiscal years are performed based on three scenarios. In FY25, the GDP growth rate is likely to be in the range of 2.05 to 3.6 percent and inflation will likely decline from 26 percent but stay between 12 and 16.8 percent, given the stated assumptions hold true.

The New China Model: Combating Economic And Political Order, Jack R. Swords

Dartmouth College Master’s Theses

Contemporary world politics centers around the actions of the two largest powers on Earth, the United States and China. They are both each other’s greatest adversary yet at the same time are each other’s largest trading partners. This thesis explores the nature of China’s economic climate that has seen it grow to one of the world’s foremost powers. However, the East Asian Nation faces economic challenges centered around the three D’s: Debt, Deflation, and Demographics. This thesis analyses what the nature of these challenges are and how China is responding to them within the ever-advancing world of economic and political …

Intimacy Without The Chance Of Heartbreak For Richer, For Poorer, In Sickness & In Health, Cynthia Nguyen

Honors Projects

The present study investigates the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the consumption of porn, shifts in the production of porn consumed between men and women, and the breakdown of any pattern in adult content via film, pictures, and audio. A quantitative approach was done by using R to analyze data pulled off of Pornhub, Reddit’s GoneWildAudio subreddit, and Archive of Our Own from 2018 to 2023. Statistical inference and modeling is used to attempt to find a pattern in the production of online porn across three mediums over several years before, during, and after the pandemic. Regardless of events …

The Impact Of Fiscal Policy On Macroeconomic Conditions In Pakistan: Insights From A Structural Vector Autoregression Analysis, Sarnaila Sharif, Saima Nawaz

Business Review

This article explores the relationship between fiscal policy and macroeconomic conditions in Pakistan using a robust Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model. Since fiscal shock has the tendency to put a constraint on the future path of government spending and taxes, as the intertemporal budget constraint holds. This element has been missed in most of the VAR studies. This study extends Structural Framework by incorporating the dynamic nature of public debt in analyzing fiscal policy shocks. Our investigation focuses on estimating the responses of output, inflation, and debt interest payments to changes in government spending and taxes, while keeping track of …

Examining The Aggregate Economic Impacts Of Criminal Record Expungement In Marion County, Indiana, Zane Callison

Lux et Fides: A Journal for Undergraduate Christian Scholars

This article investigates the individual economic effects of criminal record expungement identified in a previous article as they appear in the aggregate, particularly rates of unemployment and wages. As interest around the effects of overincarceration increases, criminal record expungement offers a possible solution to the economic woes faced by justice-involved individuals. To that end, this article examines unemployment rates and per capita personal income in Marion County, Indiana, where implementation of the state of Indiana’s criminal record expungement statute has been exceptionally effective. After an analysis, we find that criminal record expungement bears only a light or unclear causal relationship …

Investment Strategies Of Gcc Sovereign Wealth Funds: Aligning National Development And Geopolitical Goals, Roy Conners

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis examines how Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) prioritize and implement investment strategies in the context of national development and geopolitical dynamics. Using a qualitative case study approach, it analyzes the assets, key industries, leadership, and historical evolution of major GCC SWFs (ADIA, Mubadala, ADQ, QIA, and PIF) based on publicly made available information.

The findings show that GCC SWFs prioritize investments in strategic sectors, geographical destinations, and the private sector. These investments align closely with their respective national development plans, such as 'We the UAE 2031', Qatar National Vision 2030, and Saudi Arabia’s …

Eco 12 Macroeconomics Syllabus, Karen David Prof.

Open Educational Resources

This the syllabus for the RECO 12 Macroeconomics course taught by Prof. David. It is a ZTC course using an OpenStax OER textbook revised by the professor.

Impact Of Fiscal Policy On Financial Inclusion And Development In Nigeria, Okwanya Innocent, Taiwo A. Olusegun, Aimua E. Peace

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper examines the effect of fiscal policy on financial inclusion and development in Nigeria. The study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and impulse response function (IRF) to determine the extent and response of financial inclusion and development to fiscal policy changes in Nigeria. The study derives a financial inclusion index from three core indicators: access, usage and quality of financial services, while financial development is measured as the ratio of money supply to GDP (M2/GDP). The results show that government expenditure has a significant positive effect on financial inclusion and development, while tax revenue exerts a negative …

Value Added Tax Rate Variation, Import Demand And Sectoral Output In Nigeria, Joshua K. Nomkuha, Aondoawase Asooso, Philip T. Abachi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study employs computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to estimate the effect of increase in value added tax (VAT), from 5 per cent to 7.5 per cent, on import demand and sectoral output in Nigeria. The study uses 2020 as the base year for the data analysis. The results show that increase in VAT affects import demand negatively, based on import penetration ratios, with mixed effect across six sectors. The implication of the result is that the VAT policy discourage consumption of foreign products, and constitute excess burden to consumers of such products in Nigeria. The results further reveal that …

Trade Liberalization, Non-Oil Export And Economic Growth In Nigeria, Jerome T. Andohol, Terhemen Tarzoor, Dennis T. Nomor

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The study examines the impact of trade liberalization and non-oil exports on economic growth in Nigeria from 1986 to 2021. The study utilizes an autoregressive distributed lag model and found the combined effect of trade liberalization and non-oil exports to be positive and statistical significant. While trade liberalization alone may have negative consequences, its synergy with a robust non-oil export can drive sustainable economic growth. The study recommends that strategies to enhance non-oil exports should be encouraged to support the effectiveness of trade liberalization in promoting growth.

The Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy Transmission In Nigeria: Evidence From The Monetary Policy Rate And The Cash Reserve Ratio, Abdulrahman A. Nadani, Auwal Isah

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates the effectiveness of the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) and Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) as policy instruments in Nigeria. A structural VAR model is employed to simulate two distinct models measuring shocks from the MPR and the CRR using monthly data from January 2006 to December 2023. Findings show that contractionary monetary policy impulses using MPR and the CRR contract output and credit to the private sector, inflation remains largely positive in the two models, known as the “price puzzle”, but the puzzle is more persistent in the MPR equation. Moreover, shock to MPR strongly influences short-term interest …

Stock Market Volatility In The United Kingdom: Simulating Post-Covid-19 Recovery, Bala A. Dahiru, Mohammed Shuaibu, Najibullah Hassanov

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates the time it would take for the FTSE-100 index to reach its post-COVID-19 peak. The paper utilises an exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) model that accounts for leverage effect and asymmetries. The preferred models amongst competing variants was the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA)-EGARCH(2,1) specification and was used to predict daily FTSE-100 data from 5th January 2000 to 21st June 2024. The empirical exercise showed that the COVID-19-induced financial crisis negatively affected the United Kingdom’s stock market performance. The results show that the FTSE100 index could reach its post-pandemic peak around 27th August, 2024 (two months after …

Identifying Risk-Taking Behavior And Prudent Asset Allocation In Pension Funds In Indonesia, Mohammad Alvin Prabowosunu, Reza Yamora Siregar, Rosi Melati, Devan Hadrian, Rizky Rizaldi Ronaldo

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This research aims to investigate asset allocation strategies in the pension fund industry in Indonesia in relation to liability profiles and risk-taking behavior. Utilizing data on market returns for each asset class and several financial indicators of pension funds, we applied the risk-taking behavior model proposed by Andonov & Rauh (2022) and a modified model to observe the Liability-Driven Investment (LDI) strategies of pension funds in Indonesia. We discovered that private defined contribution pension fund schemes (PPIP) tend to exhibit higher risk-taking behavior, primarily through investment allocation in equities. On the other hand, private defined benefit pension funds (PPMP) demonstrate …

Kartu Prakerja Program And Youth Employment: Gender-Specific Outcomes In Indonesia, Rizki Tri Anggara

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

The Kartu Prakerja Program is a form of the active labor market policy in Indonesia, serving as a significant initiative to enhance competencies and job opportunities, including for vulnerable groups such as the young and female labor force. This study aims to analyze the program’s impact on youth employment, with a focus on gender differences. Using Propensity Score Matching (PSM), the results show a significant positive effect on employment probability, particularly for women. The findings suggest that skills training and financial incentives play a crucial role in enhancing employability. The study recommends expanding program access to vulnerable groups and continuously …

Heterogenous Household Expectations, Consumption Choices And Trust, Justine Guillochon

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters that study household consumption choices over the business cycle, the formation of household expectations and the trust of households in the monetary policy institutions.

Chapter 1: Using scanner data and product-level information, this chapter documents the trend and the cyclicality of the processing level of market-purchased household food consumption over the period 2007 to 2020 in the United States. I unveil a strategy, the processing effort, that households exploit to reduce the price of their basket. This strategy consists in altering their basket composition at business cycle frequencies to purchase less processed foods for …

Digital Currencies And Macroeconomic Performance: A Global Perspective, Tirimisiyu F. Oloko, Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna, Idris A. Adediran

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

In this study, we explore the IS-LM-BP framework in analysing the effect of digital currencies on macroeconomic performance from a global perspective. We augment the global macroeconomic dataset by Mohaddes and Raissi (2020) with digital currencies, and analyse the relationship between 2010Q1 and 2019Q4. Overall, we find digital currencies to have significantly positive short-run and no long-run impact on global output, inflation rate, interest rate, and equity stock return. Our results suggest that digital currencies have enhanced global macroeconomic performance, on average. Thus, we recommend that appropriate regulations, rather than an outright ban on digital currencies, should be implemented.

Capital Flow And Bank Lending Channels In A Small Open Economy: Evidence From Indonesia, Advis Budiman, Solikin M. Juhro, Sugiharso Safuan

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This paper investigates the implication of macro-financial linkages to explain the interaction of the financial and business cycles as the primary contributor to understanding the fluctuations in the Indonesian economy. It attempts to capture the interaction of the global financial and domestic business cycles through portfolio flow by incorporating investor behavior through a preference for domestic asset classes. Furthermore, due to information asymmetries between lenders and borrowers, we include the monitoring cost to explain the transaction cost in the credit market as a factor that drives macroeconomic fluctuations. Our findings demonstrate how financial imperfections can amplify the impact of global …

What Impact Did The Tcja Tax Cuts Have On The Manufacturing Sector?, Ryan Parker

Accounting Undergraduate Honors Theses

Throughout this paper I will examine positive effects the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 had on the manufacturing sector. To do this I begin by outlining the key provisions in the TCJA that directly benefit the manufacturing sector. This includes the corporate tax rate reduction from 35 percent to 21 percent, the changes to the repatriation tax for foreign funds, and the treatment for capital assets. I then analyze key metrics including pre-tax income, income tax provision, dividends, changes in retained earnings, and spending on property plant and equipment. I will show the interactions between the increase in …

How Did The Tax Cuts And Jobs Act Of 2017 Effect Small Businesses?, Jackson Pittman

Accounting Undergraduate Honors Theses

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 marked a significant overhaul of the United States tax system, promising to stimulate economic growth and enhance the competitiveness of American businesses. Amidst its broad-reaching reforms, the TCJA introduced several provisions directly impacting small businesses, aiming to alleviate their tax burdens and foster entrepreneurial activity. This thesis endeavors to evaluate the multifaceted effects of the TCJA on small businesses, examining its implications for their financial performance, investment behavior, and overall economic contribution.

Preliminary findings suggest that the TCJA has produced a generally positive result for small businesses. On one hand, reduced …