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An Inferentially Robust Look At Two Competing Explanations For The Surge In Unauthorized Migration From Central America, Nick Santos 2021 University of San Diego

An Inferentially Robust Look At Two Competing Explanations For The Surge In Unauthorized Migration From Central America, Nick Santos

Dissertations

The last 8 years have seen a dramatic increase in the flow of Central American apprehensions by the U.S. Border Patrol. Explanations for this surge in apprehensions have been split between two leading hypotheses. Most academic scholars, immigrant advocates, progressive media outlets, and human rights organizations identify poverty and violence (the Poverty and Violence Hypothesis) in Central America as the primary triggers responsible. In contrast, while most government officials, conservative think tanks, and the agencies that work in the immigration and border enforcement realm admit poverty and violence may underlie some decisions to migrate, they instead blame lax U ...


Essays On Private Information And Monetary Policy, Zijian Wang 2021 The University of Western Ontario

Essays On Private Information And Monetary Policy, Zijian Wang

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

In our economy, many interactions between individuals involve one party possessing more or better information than the other party (i.e., private information). For example, in asset markets, sellers often have better knowledge about the quality of the assets than buyers. Private information also exists when governments collect taxes, because taxpayers typically have more information about their income compared to the government. In my thesis, I explore the implications of private information in three novel contexts.

In Chapter 2, I study the implications of tax evasion for the design of central bank digital currency, which is an emerging payment instrument ...


An Exploration Of The Impact Of Economic Recessions On The S&P 500 And Its Sectors, Weston Sizemore 2021 University of Arkansas, Fayetteville

An Exploration Of The Impact Of Economic Recessions On The S&P 500 And Its Sectors, Weston Sizemore

Finance Undergraduate Honors Theses

The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is a method of predicting future stock prices based on past returns. Specific areas of CAPM analysis utilize regression analysis to accomplish this goal. Historic prices and returns for a specific stock in a company, or even whole sectors of the economy, are compared with the corresponding returns for the market. There have been several historical recessions in United States history, as well as a current, ongoing recession. These recessions, along with their causes and effects, will be discussed extensively in this paper. This paper utilizes an analysis of the Capital Asset Pricing Model ...


Bankruptcy And The Debt-Unemployment Relationship: Evidence From A Natural Experiment, Gina C.M. Jouaneh 2021 University of Rhode Island

Bankruptcy And The Debt-Unemployment Relationship: Evidence From A Natural Experiment, Gina C.M. Jouaneh

Senior Honors Projects

This paper examines the effect of a change in bankruptcy law on the relationship between household debt and longer-run unemployment in the United States. In consumer bankruptcy cases, filers can be eligible for two different types of bankruptcies: Chapter 7 and Chapter 13. Chapter 7 frees filers from debt repayment by liquidating their assets and using those proceeds to pay creditors, while Chapter 13 allows filers to enter a debt repayment plan of three to five years rather than discharge debt altogether. In 2005, Congress passed the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act (BAPCPA), which greatly increased the difficulty ...


Lessons Learned: Alejandro Latorre, Maryann Haggerty 2021 Yale University

Lessons Learned: Alejandro Latorre, Maryann Haggerty

Journal of Financial Crises

At the time of the 2007-09 global financial crisis, Alejandro Latorre was an assistant vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY). He was active in the bailout of American International Group (AIG) from its inception to the end, when AIG repaid its outstanding obligations to both the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury. This Lessons Learned summary is based on a Feb. 26, 2020, interview. He emphasized that the views discussed here are his own, not the views of anyone else currently or previously within the Federal Reserve System or the views of his current ...


Lessons Learned: Sarah Dahlgren, Alec Buchholtz, Rosalind Z. Wiggins 2021 Yale University

Lessons Learned: Sarah Dahlgren, Alec Buchholtz, Rosalind Z. Wiggins

Journal of Financial Crises

Sarah Dahlgren was the Executive Vice President and head of the Financial Institution Supervision Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) during the crisis and instrumental in the rescue of American International Group (AIG). This Lessons Learned summary is drawn from a March 22, 2018, interview in which she gave her take on how central bankers can prepare for future crises.


Lessons Learned: Chester B. Feldberg, Maryann Haggerty 2021 Yale University

Lessons Learned: Chester B. Feldberg, Maryann Haggerty

Journal of Financial Crises

Chester B. Feldberg worked for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) for 36 years in a variety of roles. In the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, he served as a trustee for the AIG Credit Trust Facility (2009-2011). The trust was established in early 2009 to hold the equity stock of American International Group Inc. (AIG) that the U.S. government had received as a result of the 2008 AIG bailout. The three trustees were responsible for voting the stock, ensuring satisfactory corporate governance at AIG, and eventually disposing of the stock.

When he was named as ...


Lessons Learned: Eric Dinallo, Maryann Haggerty 2021 Yale University

Lessons Learned: Eric Dinallo, Maryann Haggerty

Journal of Financial Crises

Eric Dinallo was New York State Superintendent of Insurance from January 2007 through July 2009. In New York, as throughout the United States, insurance companies are regulated at the state level. In his position as Superintendent, Dinallo oversaw the insurance operating companies of American International Group (AIG) within New York. AIG’s holding company, however, was supervised at the federal level. Much of AIG’s problems came from its non-insurance subsidiary AIG Financial Products (AIGFP), which was a major presence in the market for credit default swaps (CDS), a type of derivative that was a factor behind the 2007-09 financial ...


The Rescue Of Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac – Module Z: Overview, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Ben Henken, Adam Kulam, Daniel Thompson, Andrew Metrick 2021 Yale Program on Financial Stability

The Rescue Of Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac – Module Z: Overview, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Ben Henken, Adam Kulam, Daniel Thompson, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

In September 2008, as the financial crisis that had begun the previous year escalated, the US government appointed a conservator for two government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs), the Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac), that dominated the secondary mortgage market and were among the largest participants in the global capital markets. The conservatorships were the hallmark of a multipart rescue plan intended to save the firms from insolvency and a disorderly collapse and required the combined and coordinated efforts of several government agencies and instrumentalities. Ultimately, the government invested $191.5 billion into ...


The Rescue Of Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac–Module F: Federal Reserve’S Large-Scale Asset Purchase (Lsap) Program, Daniel Thompson, Adam Kulam 2021 Yale University

The Rescue Of Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac–Module F: Federal Reserve’S Large-Scale Asset Purchase (Lsap) Program, Daniel Thompson, Adam Kulam

Journal of Financial Crises

By late 2008, the secondary mortgage markets were suffering high default rates, causing mortgage lending to slow and the value of mortgage securities to plummet. The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate, and the government placed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into conservatorship, yet credit in housing and other financial markets remained tight. On November 25, the Fed announced its intent to purchase up to $500 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and $100 billion in agency debt to reduce the cost and increase the availability of mortgage credit, which would support housing markets and improve conditions in financial ...


The Rescue Of Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac – Module C: Gse Credit Facility, Emily Vergara 2021 Yale University

The Rescue Of Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac – Module C: Gse Credit Facility, Emily Vergara

Journal of Financial Crises

In 2007 and 2008, the collapse of the subprime mortgage market and the deterioration of the housing market more generally precipitated a crisis at the Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac), which together held or guaranteed $5.3 trillion in mortgage assets. Over the course of two years, both entities suffered high losses and saw their liquidity positions deteriorate as the market perceived their rapid decline. On September 6, 2008, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), pursuant to the authority of the Housing and Economic Recovery Act (HERA) of 2008, took ...


The Rescue Of American International Group Module Z: Overview, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Aidan Lawson, Steven Kelly, Lily S. Engbith, Andrew Metrick 2021 Yale Program on Financial Stability

The Rescue Of American International Group Module Z: Overview, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Aidan Lawson, Steven Kelly, Lily S. Engbith, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

In September 2008, in the midst of the broader financial crisis, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors used its emergency authority under Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act to authorize the largest loan in its history, a $85 billion collateralized credit line to American International Group (AIG), a $1 trillion insurance and financial company that was experiencing severe liquidity strains. In connection with the loan, the government received an equity interest representing 79.9% of the company’s ownership. AIG continued to experience a depressed stock price, asset devaluations, and the risk of ratings downgrades leading to questions ...


The Rescue Of American International Group Module D: Maiden Lane Ii, Lily S. Engbith, Devyn Jeffereis 2021 Yale University

The Rescue Of American International Group Module D: Maiden Lane Ii, Lily S. Engbith, Devyn Jeffereis

Journal of Financial Crises

In September 2008, American International Group (AIG) faced increasing difficulty in returning cash collateral to counterparties looking to terminate, rather than roll over, their securities lending agreements, in part because the company had invested the collateral in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), which were becoming illiquid. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) provided liquidity to the company, including through the Securities Borrowing Facility (SBF), which allowed for the repayment of cash collateral but did not address the falling values of the RMBS. In November 2008, the Federal Reserve Board authorized the creation of Maiden Lane II (ML II), a ...


The Rescue Of American International Group Module B: The Securities Borrowing Facility, Lily S. Engbith, Alec Buchholtz, Devyn Jeffereis 2021 Yale University

The Rescue Of American International Group Module B: The Securities Borrowing Facility, Lily S. Engbith, Alec Buchholtz, Devyn Jeffereis

Journal of Financial Crises

In 2008, American International Group (AIG) was among the largest insurance corporations in the world and maintained a profitable securities lending program. However, AIG invested much of the cash collateral received from counterparties in residential mortgage-backed securities, whose value began to collapse rapidly and unexpectedly, creating liquidity strain for AIG when borrowers returned their securities. Because of these strains, credit downgrades, and losses, in September, the company sought assistance from the Federal Reserve which, on October 6, 2008, approved the establishment of the Securities Borrowing Facility by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY). The FRBNY agreed to loan ...


Stress Tests And Policy, Greg Feldberg, Andrew Metrick 2021 Yale

Stress Tests And Policy, Greg Feldberg, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

Ten years after the Federal Reserve’s crisis-era bank stress test, it is time to recalibrate the stress tests for “peacetime.” Outside of a crisis, supervisors should tailor stress tests to focus on their comparative advantages by taking a macroprudential focus, with severe scenarios that enable them to learn about emerging risks in both traditional and shadow banking sectors. In peacetime, also, supervisors should emphasize risk- management practices and be wary of forcing rapid changes in capital levels for individual banks, while linking stress-test results with countercyclical capital buffers across the system.


Essays On Exchange Rate Shocks And The Political Economy Of Local Fiscal Policy In Brazil, Raphael Rocha Gouvea 2021 University of Massachusetts Amherst

Essays On Exchange Rate Shocks And The Political Economy Of Local Fiscal Policy In Brazil, Raphael Rocha Gouvea

Doctoral Dissertations

Do exchange rate shocks have distributional consequences? Does employment respond to exchange rate shocks? Do political parties matter when it comes to governing cities? Each chapter of this dissertation attempts to answer one of these questions in the Brazilian context. In the first chapter, titled Large devaluations and inflation inequality: evidence from Brazil, I show that prices of tradable goods/lower-priced varieties increase significantly more than the prices of nontradables/higher-priced varieties. These relative price changes may lead to inflation inequality when household consumption baskets are different across the distribution of income. Using Cravino and Levchenko (2017)'s methodology, we ...


The Role Of Macroeconomic And Policy Uncertainty In Density Forecast Dispersion, You LI, Anthony S. TAY 2021 Singapore Management University

The Role Of Macroeconomic And Policy Uncertainty In Density Forecast Dispersion, You Li, Anthony S. Tay

Research Collection School Of Economics

We explore empirically the role of macroeconomic and policy uncertainty in explaining dispersion in professional forecasters’ density forecasts, and in explaining individual forecaster uncertainty (defined as the uncertainty expressed by individual forecasters in their density forecasts). We focus on US real output growth and inflation, using data from the Philadelphia Fed’s quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), 1992-2016. We find that dispersion in individual density forecasts is related to macroeconomic uncertainty, especially in longer horizon forecasts, but not policy or forecaster uncertainty. There is also little evidence that forecaster uncertainty reflects macroeconomic or policy uncertainty.


The Impact Of The Capital Market, The Insurance Sector And The Mortgage Finance Sector On Economic Growth In Egypt, 2005-2019, Hana Anis 2021 American University in Cairo

The Impact Of The Capital Market, The Insurance Sector And The Mortgage Finance Sector On Economic Growth In Egypt, 2005-2019, Hana Anis

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis aims to explore the relationship between financial markets and economic growth in Egypt for the 15 years period, starting from 2005 to 2019. The study concentrates on the non-banking financial sector which includes the stock market, the debt market, the mortgage and the insurance sectors. The Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model is utilized to describe the relationship between GDP growth rate, as a proxy for economic growth, and a number of variables from the financial sector. Results of the analysis show that there is a significant relationship and statistical causality between the growth rate and the debt market, represented ...


Determinants Of Business Cycle Synchronisation In The Common Monetary Area In Southern Africa, Gustaf Dillner 2021 University of Warwick

Determinants Of Business Cycle Synchronisation In The Common Monetary Area In Southern Africa, Gustaf Dillner

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper examines the key factors that determine business cycle synchronisation in the Common Monetary Area in Southern Africa by applying the extreme bounds analysis. I investigate traditional structural indicators and policy indicators of output correlation with annual data from 1980 to 2018. A positive effect of sector homogeneity and trade intensity on business cycle synchronisation is identified. However, whereas sector homogeneity is a growing trend correlating with an increasing trend of cycle correlation, trade intensity is not. Instead, trade intensity increases significantly in periods of stagnant growth when cycle correlation is higher, but no long-term trend can be seen.


Does Foreign Direct Investment And Trade Promote Economic Growth? Evidence From Albania, Sam Hobbs, Dimitrios Paparas, Mostafa AboElsoud 2021 Harper Adams University

Does Foreign Direct Investment And Trade Promote Economic Growth? Evidence From Albania, Sam Hobbs, Dimitrios Paparas, Mostafa Aboelsoud

Economics

Purpose: Albania has experienced a rapid transition from a centrally planned economy to a mixed economy since the fall of communism in 1989. Policy changes, trade liberalization, and privatization have come about at a rapid pace, allowing foreign direct investment (FDI) and international trade to become key components of Albania’s economy. Against this backdrop, this study investigates the relationships among FDI, trade, and economic growth in Albania.

Methodology: Annual time-series data were obtained from the World Bank. Then, the following econometric tests were performed on the variables representing FDI inflows, exports, and GDP as proxies for FDI, trade, and ...


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