Macroeconomics Commons^™

Fighting "Fear Itself": The Bank Holiday Of March 1933, Matthew Jaremski, Gary Richardson, Angela Vossmeyer

Journal of Financial Crises

In the month preceding Franklin Roosevelt’s inauguration, a panic overwhelmed the U.S. banking system. Immediately after assuming office, Roosevelt declared a nationwide bank holiday and vowed to reopen only sound banks. Five days after the holiday ended, nearly 11,000 of the nation's more than 18,000 commercial banks had reopened. Nearly 4,000 never reopened or had to be reorganized. The holiday is often credited with helping reestablish financial stability, but little is known about the mechanisms underlying the reopening process and the way in which payment systems were restored. We detail the process of reopening the banking system using narrative records …

Potential Implications Of The Pandemic On Medium Term Productivity, Pakasa Bary, Pandu Kuntoaji, Dwi F. Multiretno, Igp Wira Kusuma

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study analyses the potential medium-term impact of the pandemic to productivity and macroeconomy. It simulates the impact of the pandemic on productivity, labor and macroeconomic dynamics. The simulation is carried out using simple variations of real business cycle models, with shock on consumption-leisure preference which are endogenously responded by technology. Simulation results are consistent with macroeconomic dynamics observed during the pandemic and therefore may imply medium term prospects. In addition, permanent application of technology to replace pandemic-related labour restrictions is superior for medium-term growth.

Health Crisis And Currency Risk: Fresh Evidence From New Data Sets, Afees A. Salisu, Dinci J. Penzin, Yinka S. Hammed

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

With the aid of a method of predictability analysis that involves a feasible quasigeneralized least squares estimator, we examine the predictive power associated with the newly computed COVID-19 indices, which are disaggregated into six indices for currency market risks (realized volatility of exchange rate). Our sample size covers the period between December 31, 2019, and December 28, 2021. We note mixed outcomes for the major currency markets considered. On average, while the health crisis seems to have heightened the risks associated with Pounds Sterling, Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar against USD, it exerts a moderating effect on the Euro, Yen …

Exit Policy, Liquidity Normalization, And Lts Implications On Central Bank Policy Transmission, Alexander Lubis, Rangga Pratama, Merlin Dwi Yunaniar, Wahyu Agung Nugroho, Dian Prima Susiandri

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

The objective of this study is to determine the implications for the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission by examining the impact of specific policy toolkits in both Advanced Economy (AE) and Emerging Market (EM) countries during crises and during normalization (exit policy) upon crisis resolution. The analysis conducted using the VECM method on a number of AE and EM countries demonstrates that the response of bank interest rates (credit) is consistent with changes in policy rates and substantially diverges from Quantitative Easing (QE) policy in both the short and long term. However, the efficacy of monetary policy transmission appears to …

Microfinance In Latin America: Sustainability, Growth, And Efficiency, Katelyn M. Hoidal

Global Tides

The subsequent research addresses the question: Within populous Latin American countries (Ecuador, Mexico, Panama, Argentina, Chile, and Peru), are microfinance institutions associated with differences in GDP and household consumption equally between 2010 and 2018? Which do they have a stronger correlation with? The essence of this question seeks to answer whether the correlation between MFIs and wealth indicators carries over to a national level or merely persists at an individual level. This research has been informed and influenced by literature and studies conducted across South Asia, Africa, and Latin America focusing on the research of Abdelkader, Naveeda, Annim, Campbell, Armendáriz, …

21st Century Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve From The Great Inflation To Covid-19, Greg Arburn

The Journal of Economics and Politics

No abstract provided.

What About The Buyers? Deriving Factors Of Demand In The U.S. Black Market, Eric S. Schneider

Undergraduate Theses

The vast majority of econometric research regarding black markets focuses on the supply. Relatively little information is definitively shown in academic literature regarding the drivers of demand for black markets. This project seeks to identify factors of demand for black market goods and services. First, this paper gives a brief definition of the broad definition of black markets, before specifically defining the scope of individual markets which will be included in this project. Next, there is a brief review of recent literature on the U.S. black market in order to determine prime candidates for factors of demand. Then, a robust …

International Monetary Adjustment With And Without A Global Fiscal Authority, Nathaniel Cline, David Fields, Matias Vernengo

Working Papers

No abstract provided.

Macroeconomic Modelling Towards Achieving Sustainable Development Goal-13 In India, Aqib Mujtaba Dr., Pravakar Sahoo Dr., Pabitra Kumar Jena Dr.

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study develops a macroeconomic model to examine the relationships between the energy sector, economic growth and the environment in India over the period 1971 to 2021. Aligning with the United Nations SDG-13 and using the Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equation (SURE) model, we find that the services and agriculture sectors, non-renewable energy consumption, government expenditure, money supply, carbon dioxide emissions per capita, inflation, and population are crucial factors. The services sector and government spending notably impact economic growth and environmental degradation due to increased energy demand and emissions.

Ai Integration And Digital Regulation: Impacts On Global Trade In Digital Services, Srividhya M, Ravi Kiran Reddi

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study investigates the impact of AI readiness and digital laws on Digitally Deliverable Services (DDS) exports, utilizing a comprehensive dataset that includes developed and developing economies, as well as various global regions. The analysis reveals that AI readiness significantly enhances DDS exports across both developed and developing countries, with notable regional variations. Higher gross national income per capita and larger population sizes are consistently positive factors, while the effects of ITA membership and digital laws, such as cybercrime and consumer protection regulations, vary by region. These findings underscore the importance of tailored policy interventions to enhance DDS exports, considering …

The Impact Of Financial Inclusion On Inflation In The Mena Region: Oil Vs Non-Oil Countries, Jailan Elsaid

Theses and Dissertations

The study examines the impact of financial inclusion on inflation as a tool for monetary policy effectiveness in the MENA region, separating the analysis into oil and non-oil countries from 2004 to 2022. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) technique is used to create a multidimensional index of financial inclusion through usage and access dimensions. Additionally, PVAR GMM estimation and Granger causality tests are implemented to analyze the dynamics and causality between financial inclusion and inflation, while controlling for other variables such as broad money, real effective exchange rate, and real GDP growth, which may influence the relationship according to the …

Banking And The Wider Economy: Essays On Capital And Cross-Border Risks, Morgan Hunt

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Chapter 1: This paper examines the impact of growth in the banking industry’s capital and assets on real output growth at both aggregate and industry levels using a short-run factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) model across 19 NAICS two-digit industries from 2007Q1 to 2019Q4. Results reveal that changes in capital growth significantly affect output growth in the Manufacturing and Finance industries, while changes in risk-weighted assets impact the Construction, Manufacturing, Real Estate, and Transportation industries. Conversely, output growth in the Manufacturing and Retail Trade industries influences capital growth, while Wholesale Trade output growth affects risk-weighted assets. These relationships are robust …

Essays On The Impact Of Monetary Policy Shocks, Rubaiyat Tasnim

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of two chapters.

Chapter 1 - Households’ Balance Sheet Adjustment in Response to Monetary Policy Shocks.

Household’s balance sheet and housing decision have played crucial role in understanding the transmission of monetary policy in the last two decades. Monetary policy can affect the broader economy through household finances via the income channel and the wealth channel, and especially of they are debt or liquidity constrained. This chapter studies the unhedged interest rate exposure (URE) following Auclert (2019) for households using micro-level data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey for the years 1994 to 2012. Using the URE, I …

China’S Economic Slowdown: How Does It Affect New Zealand’S Economy?, Haven Qin

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the impact of China’s economic slowdown on New Zealand’s economy, focusing on sector-specific linkages across real estate, the stock market, exports, and import prices. As a small open economy, New Zealand’s deep integration with global markets makes it particularly vulnerable to external shocks from its largest trading partner. Employing OLS regression models and monthly economic data, this study reveals the nuanced pathways through which China’s economic conditions influence New Zealand. Key findings include the sensitivity of New Zealand’s housing market to Chinese property investments and Chinese stock market performance, the influence of Chinese financial market performance on …

Global Rate Pass Through: Impact Of The Global Savings Market On Home Prices In The Uk, Laxmi Namboodiri

Honors Theses

This paper examines how changes in the global savings and investment market impact housing prices and supply in the United Kingdom. I first constructed a global interest rate using principal component analysis. Then, using structural VARs, I estimate impulse response functions to study the dynamics of housing prices and supply in the UK with an impulse in the global interest rate. The model predicts that housing prices and supply will increase immediately and then decrease after a lag. The decrease is primarily driven by the years after the stock market crash as opposed to before.

Deportations And Debt: How The Trump Administration’S Immigration Policies Affect The United States’ National Debt Situation, James D. Webster

Honors Theses and Capstones

The value of the United States’ national debt measured as a share of its economic output, otherwise known as its debt-to-GDP ratio, is projected to reach an all-time high and continue to climb over the span of the next 30 years. This can be attributed to a combination of tax and spending policies which generate annual budget deficits as well as a projected slowdown of economic growth. A major factor contributing to this situation is the slowing growth of the labor force in the United States. As time goes on, the growth of the U.S. population slows, and immigration becomes …

Synthetic Statocracy - Pakistan’S Self-Created Inferno: Examining The Causes And Consequences Of Military Dominance In Pakistan, Umer Lakhani

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the history of military rule in Pakistan. Applying the framework of Johannes Gerschewski in The Three Pillars of Stability: Legitimation, Repression and Co-Optation in Autocratic Regimes, this paper looks to explain how military rulers who presided over the three periods of military rule in Pakistan consolidated and maintained their power, as well as the effects that these periods of rule had on Pakistani society. This paper will also supplement Gerschewski’s general framework by applying the findings of various established authors who have been published extensively on Pakistan’s political history, economy and relationship with the military. Such authors …

When Consumers See It Coming: How Anticipation Affects The Domestic Cost Of Tariffs, Pierce D. Sanderson

CMC Senior Theses

Tariffs implemented by President Trump in 2018 were unexpected and significant, incurring large costs to U.S. consumers. This study examines the effect of tariff anticipation on price, quantity, and value effect on imports in the United States. Specifically, it focuses on tariffs implemented during Obama’s second term in office from 2012 to 2016 on the automotive, technology, and manufacturing industries. The findings present a significant divergence from the literature on the effects of 2018 tariffs, finding a near full pass-through of tariffs to foreign exporter prices rather than U.S. consumers. Specifically, a one percent increase in tariffs resulted in a …

Climate Change And Ski Resort Ownership Consolidation, Gabriel Yang

CMC Senior Theses

Based on a collected dataset of ski resort ownership records and localized climate data spanning 1920-2020, I analyze how environmental volatility affects firm-level outcomes. Using multinomial logit regression models, I examine whether changes in snowfall, precipitation, and temperature are associated with higher probabilities of acquisition, particularly by large conglomerates. Preliminary results suggest that climate volatility, specifically around minimum and maximum temperature, is becoming increasingly important in affecting ownership transfers. Resorts with higher volatility in warm-day temperatures are less likely to be acquired by both conglomerates and non-conglomerates, while cold volatility has become less important over time as snowmaking capabilities are …

The Counter-Cyclicality Of Earnings Management: Evidence Through 2024, William J. Hall

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and earnings management, extending the analysis of Hillegeist and Lin (2019) using updated data through 2024. Based on 16,635 firm-quarter observations, my study affirms the results found in prior literature and confirms that there is a negative association between the change in GDP and the direction of firms’ earnings management behavior, indicating that earnings management is counter-cyclical. My study also finds that firms manage earnings asymmetrically based on the current macroeconomic state, with firms managing earnings more in economic downturns and less in expansions. My findings suggest that despite major macroeconomic and …