Macroeconomics Commons^™

Modeling Taiwanese Monetary Policy: Augmented Taylor And Mccallum Rules, Yu-Chi (Yunnie) Cheng

CMC Senior Theses

This study examines how price-based and quantity-based monetary frameworks explain the policy actions of the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) within the context of a trade-dependent, small open economy. Utilizing a comparative empirical analysis of Taylor and McCallum rules from 2000 to 2025, the research finds that Taylor rule’s superior fit is contingent upon the inclusion of the augmented variables, such as federal funds rate, Financial Stress Index, and sovereign credit premiums, revealing a policy stance that is deeply reactive to international financial conditions. In contrast, the McCallum rule demonstrates remarkable parsimony, explaining 45% of the variance …

The Impact Of Student Achievement On Economic Growth: A Pisa-Based Analysis Of Gdp Per Capita, Emma Rose Nasr

Undergraduate Theses and Capstone Projects

This study investigates the extent to which international student achievement, measured through PISA assessments in mathematics, reading, and science, explains cross-country differences in economic development. Using an unbalanced panel data set combining PISA results from 2015, 2018, and 2022 with macroeconomic indicators from the World Development Indicators, I estimate multiple regression models, including pooled OLS, country and time fixed effects, and subsample analyses for developed and developing countries. Results from the pooled model indicate strong positive associations between PISA scores and GDP per capita, consistent with human capital theory. However, these relationships diminish under fixed effects specifications, suggesting that cross-country …

Converging, But Not Together: Regional Growth After Eu Enlargement, Armine Kardashyan

CMC Senior Theses

This paper studies whether poorer regions in Central and Eastern Europe have caught up to richer ones since EU enlargement, and whether any observed catch-up reflects absolute convergence or convergence conditional on regional fundamentals. Using annual NUTS-3 data for eleven Central and Eastern European member states from 2000 to 2023, I estimate rolling ten-year convergence regressions within a steady-state framework in which regional GDP per capita depends on investment, human capital, and within-window exposure to EU membership.

The results show strong evidence of conditional convergence during the early and middle phases of enlargement. Regions that begin a window above their …

Multivariate Quantile Autoregression-Mixed Data Sampling (Mvqar-Midas) Modeling Of Cost Of Living And Supply Chain Dynamics In Canada., Patrick Gbolonyo

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

In recent years, the rising cost of living as a result of persistent inflationary pressures, disruptions in the global supply chains, and changes in the macroeconomic landscape has become a critical topic of discussion. To address this, we move beyond a mean-based framework and employ a quantile regression approach. This allows the persistence of each series and the transmis- sion of shocks between the Consumer Price Index (CPI) (the total CPI which is a percentage change over the past 12 months), the Interest Rate (IR)(the target for the overnight rate), the New Housing Price Index (NHPI), and high-frequency supply chain …

The Tcja And Shareholder Payouts, Carson T. Bloom

CMC Senior Theses

Abstract

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) provided corporations an estimated $233 billion in tax savings, yet relatively little is known about how firms allocated this cash windfall. This study examines whether growth and mature firms differed in whether they used these tax savings to distribute dividends and repurchase shares. Using panel data on publicly traded North American firms from 2016–2019, I classify firms as either growth or mature based on their cash-flow patterns and estimate the effects of the TCJA on their behavior using a difference-in-differences design.

The results indicate that mature firms increased shareholder payouts significantly more …

An Examination Of Remittance Inflow Variation In Net-Emigration Countries, Andrew Rizko

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the structural and institutional determinants of remittance inflows in a panel of 40 net-emigration countries from 2000 to 2024. By restricting the sample to countries with negative average net migration, the analysis holds migration pressure constant and isolates the role of domestic conditions in explaining cross-country variation in remittance dependence. Using fixed effects and correlated random effects (Mundlak) estimators, I find that labor force participation is the most robust within-country determinant: a one percentage point increase is associated with approximately a 2.3 percent decline in remittance inflows, consistent with remittances functioning as a structural need in contexts …

Wiener-Granger Causality To Model Banking Sector Contagion, Riya Bhasin

CMC Senior Theses

In this thesis, we explore the main drivers behind the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and how the interconnectivity of banking sectors contributed to the worldwide spread of its effects. To understand how this became a global phenomenon, we apply linear Wiener-Granger Causality as a form of network analysis, building on pre-existing methodology in order to study continent banking indices. We find connections across locales on the continent and country level, but ones that are weak. Our modelling was insufficient to completely capture existing and well-known relationships accurately. This occurs due to limitations of the data and of the linear models’ …

Teaching A New Dog Old Tricks: How Buy Now Pay Later Responds To Consumer Financial Strength, Ryunosuke Nakase

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis aims to answer three questions. 1) How does BNPL usage in the US respond to macroeconomic conditions reflective of consumer strength? 2) Does BNPL debt migrate toward credit cards during months following high BNPL spend? 3) How does BNPL respond to macroeconomic conditions at the firm level? I constructed a 4 year monthly and quarterly time series dataset spanning from 2021 to 2025. I utilize time series OLS regressions to examine the short-term behavior of BNPL volume monthly at the aggregate level and quarterly at the firm level. At the aggregate level, BNPL volume in the US is …

Demographics, Macroeconomy, Or Monetary Policy: What Drives Japan’S Short Run Economic Movements Since 1991?, James Ac Raymond Ii

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines how Japan’s post-1991 macroeconomy behaves by analyzing quarterly inflation, money growth, and equity returns, with a focus on whether demographic change, macroeconomic indicators, or monetary policy better explains short run movements. Using Newey West regressions, the results show that demographics exert almost no influence at short horizons, while major Bank of Japan policy regimes such as QQE, NIRP, and YCC strongly shape liquidity conditions and dominate both money growth and equity performance. The findings suggest that demographic change matters primarily as a long run force that creates a low-rate environment, while short run dynamics are driven almost …

High-Resolution, Fast-Response Optical Fiber Temperature Sensor With A Large Measurement Range Based On Fiber-Tip Alumina Fabry-Pérot Interferometer, Ruimin Jie, Chen Zhu, Robert Abbott, Michael Davis, Xiong Zhang, Jie Huang

Electrical and Computer Engineering Faculty Research & Creative Works

We present an alumina-tip optical fiber Fabry-Pérot interferometric temperature sensor exhibiting high-temperature performance, rapid response, and high resolution. Fabricated by fusion splicing an alumina micro disk directly to a single-mode fiber, the sensor achieves robust, stable operation without complex fabrication processes or adhesives. Experimental evaluation confirms a measurement range extending to 1000°C, with sensitivity of 28.66 pm/°C, a resolution of 0.042°C, and a rapid response time of approximately 13 ms. Compared to state-of-the-art optical fiber FPI sensors, our alumina-tip sensor offers superior overall performance, effectively addressing critical demands for high-resolution, fast-response temperature measurement in extreme environments including aerospace, structural monitoring, …

From Sentiment And Risk To Trade: A Country-Level Study On Geopolitical Trade Effects, Seung Heo

Publications and Research

Can geopolitical risk reshape international trade? I construct directed, monthly measures of bilateral geopolitical risk and its associated sentiment from approximately 5.1 million news articles in the GDELT Event Database, and estimate their effect on trade among eight Asia-Pacific economies at the HS2 product level over 2015--2025, using Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood gravity local projections with high-dimensional fixed effects. Pooled across countries, rising risk produces an immediate expansion of trade led by verbal threats and by news tone orthogonal to event content, rather than by material acts, indicating that how a conflict is reported can move trade before the conflict materializes. A …

Understanding Housing Market Adjustment: Evidence From Population Shocks, Regulation, And Monetary Policy, Michael Tyler Duncan

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

This dissertation studies how housing markets adjust to demographic shocks, local regulation, and macroeconomic policy through three related essays. Chapter 1 develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model and panel VECM evidence to study how population volatility affects housing prices, rents, and construction. It finds that population shocks generate strong price responses across housing markets and more pronounced effects in tight housing markets and declining regions. Chapter 2 examines local rental registry policies using county-level difference-in-differences analysis and finds limited aggregate effects but meaningful heterogeneity across treatment intensity and market segments. Chapter 3 revisits the macro-housing VAR literature on …

Essays On Indian Inflation Targeting, Dipankar Biswas

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

This dissertation explores the efficacy and impact of inflation targeting as the monetary policy framework with a specific focus on India after its formal adoption of the inflation-targeting framework in 2016.

The first chapter focuses on the history of monetary policy framework in India. It discusses, in detail, the different monetary policy frameworks, namely Credit Planning, Flexible Monetary-Targeting, and Multiple-Indicator approaches, adopted by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) (i.e., the monetary authority of the country), before arriving at the adoption of the inflation-targeting framework. The monetary policy transmission process in India during the different global turmoil segments of the …

Three Essays In Labor Economics, Yoritsugu Shimazu

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

The first chapter decomposes aggregate productivity growth into a pure-technology contribution and an allocative-efficiency contribution for Japan and the United States, applying a single estimation methodology symmetrically to comparable firm-level panels. Production functions are estimated by the Gandhi, Navarro, and Rivers (2020) gross-output procedure under monopolistic competition (GNR-MC), which recovers firm-level price markups and wage markdowns, and these enter the Baqaee–Farhi (2020) decomposition through the closed form of Aoki et al. (2024). Both panels are drawn from Compustat with identical pre-processing and estimation, and we close the markup-level identification gap that GNR leave open with a normalization anchored on the …

Tracing The Literature On Central Bank Communication: A Bibliometric Review, Kanupriya Madan, Amlendu Dubey

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This paper examines past and current research trends in central bank communication, as well as the thematic evolution and dominant themes in the field, through a bibliometric analysis of research works published in Scopus-indexed journals from 2006 to 2023. The study aims to map the intellectual structure of the field, identify key themes, and highlight influential work. Our key findings are as follows. First, the literature is classified into four primary domains: types of central bank communication, macroeconomic effects, communication channels, and analytical methodologies. Second, the main findings include the importance of formal communication, such as minutes of monetary policy …

Lessons Learned: Andreas Verykios And Kostas Tsatsaronis, Mercedes Cardona

Journal of Financial Crises

Andreas Verykios was appointed in 2018 to lead the board of directors of the General Council of the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund (HFSF), an independent special purpose vehicle created to stabilize the Greek banking sector in the wake of the country’s debt crisis. The Greek economy was badly affected by the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the Sovereign Debt Crisis, when the government was found to have underreported its fiscal deficits and public debt. This led to a downgrade and eventual default of its sovereign bonds, requiring assistance from the European Commission. From 2010 through 2018, the commission implemented three …

Lessons Learned: Paul Tucker, Salil Gupta

Journal of Financial Crises

After joining the Bank of England (BoE) in 1980, Sir Paul Tucker held a number of positions of increasing responsibility including serving as a member of several key committees. Tucker played a crucial role in the BoE’s response to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) as director for markets, through March 2009, then as deputy governor of the bank until November 2013. Post-crisis, he has been instrumental in constructing the international regulatory framework on financial stability. From 2016 to 2021, Tucker also chaired the Systemic Risk Council.

Currently, Tucker is a research fellow at Harvard Kennedy School, Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business …

Lessons Learned: Ewald Nowotny, Maryanne Chute Lynch, Rosalind Z. Wiggins

Journal of Financial Crises

Ewald Nowotny was appointed governor of the National Bank of Austria in September 2008 at the start of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), having previously served as a vice president of the European Investment Bank in Luxembourg, the house bank of the European Union. Nowotny participated in the implementation of the multilateral stabilization framework known as the Vienna Initiative, which helped restore stability in the financial markets of Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe during the GFC. Working with the Austrian Central Bank, the European Commission, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), he steered the Austrian economy away from recession. During …

Lessons Learned: Pedro Machado, Mercedes Cardona

Journal of Financial Crises

Pedro Machado began his career as a legal adviser to the European Central Bank in the years leading up the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), then joined the Bank of Portugal (BOP) in 2006, where he has held several positions. He was chief of staff to Portugal’s minister of state and finance in 2011, during the European Sovereign Debt Crisis, when the government negotiated a bailout with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and European Union. He returned to the BOP, as deputy director of the prudential supervision department, while the program was being implemented. The EUR 78 billion bailout was largely …

Central Bank Crisis Interventions: A Review Of The Recent Literature On Potential Costs, Patrick Aldridge, David A. Cimon, Rishi Vala

Journal of Financial Crises

Central banks may engage in large-scale lending and asset purchases to stabilize financial markets and implement monetary policy during crises. The ability of these actions to restore financial market functioning is well documented; however, they come with costs. We provide a literature review of the costs associated with these post-Global Financial Crisis central bank actions, without commenting on the net benefits they provide. We find support for the premise that crisis actions may negatively impact market liquidity, distort asset prices, increase rent-seeking and inefficient uses of the liquidity provided by the central bank, create international spillovers, and create distortions in …