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A Pandemic Of Protectionism: How Economic Isolationism Affects The Economy, Álvaro Martín 2021 University of Cambridge

A Pandemic Of Protectionism: How Economic Isolationism Affects The Economy, Álvaro Martín

Journal of New Finance

The aim of this paper is to study the economic consequences of protectionism from a macroeconomic perspective. For that purpose, we estimate the impact of tariffs on different economic variables as GDP growth, trade volume or unemployment, comparing the effects for two groups of countries: high-income and low-income. For this, we build a regression model to estimate the effects of tariff changes on each of these variables, differentiating between the two groups of countries. Tariffs contribute to increase unemployment, generate lower economic growth and reduce trade volumes, but by how much? This is very relevant in the actual pandemic environment ...


The Role Of Macroeconomic And Policy Uncertainty In Density Forecast Dispersion, You LI, Anthony S. TAY 2021 Singapore Management University

The Role Of Macroeconomic And Policy Uncertainty In Density Forecast Dispersion, You Li, Anthony S. Tay

Research Collection School Of Economics

We explore empirically the role of macroeconomic and policy uncertainty in explaining dispersion in professional forecasters’ density forecasts, and in explaining individual forecaster uncertainty (defined as the uncertainty expressed by individual forecasters in their density forecasts). We focus on US real output growth and inflation, using data from the Philadelphia Fed’s quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), 1992-2016. We find that dispersion in individual density forecasts is related to macroeconomic uncertainty, especially in longer horizon forecasts, but not policy or forecaster uncertainty. There is also little evidence that forecaster uncertainty reflects macroeconomic or policy uncertainty.


The Impact Of The Capital Market, The Insurance Sector And The Mortgage Finance Sector On Economic Growth In Egypt, 2005-2019, Hana Anis 2021 American University in Cairo

The Impact Of The Capital Market, The Insurance Sector And The Mortgage Finance Sector On Economic Growth In Egypt, 2005-2019, Hana Anis

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis aims to explore the relationship between financial markets and economic growth in Egypt for the 15 years period, starting from 2005 to 2019. The study concentrates on the non-banking financial sector which includes the stock market, the debt market, the mortgage and the insurance sectors. The Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model is utilized to describe the relationship between GDP growth rate, as a proxy for economic growth, and a number of variables from the financial sector. Results of the analysis show that there is a significant relationship and statistical causality between the growth rate and the debt market, represented ...


Determinants Of Business Cycle Synchronisation In The Common Monetary Area In Southern Africa, Gustaf Dillner 2021 University of Warwick

Determinants Of Business Cycle Synchronisation In The Common Monetary Area In Southern Africa, Gustaf Dillner

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper examines the key factors that determine business cycle synchronisation in the Common Monetary Area in Southern Africa by applying the extreme bounds analysis. I investigate traditional structural indicators and policy indicators of output correlation with annual data from 1980 to 2018. A positive effect of sector homogeneity and trade intensity on business cycle synchronisation is identified. However, whereas sector homogeneity is a growing trend correlating with an increasing trend of cycle correlation, trade intensity is not. Instead, trade intensity increases significantly in periods of stagnant growth when cycle correlation is higher, but no long-term trend can be seen.


Recreational Marijuana In Ohio: A Cost Benefit Analysis, Noah Polanski 2021 The University of Akron

Recreational Marijuana In Ohio: A Cost Benefit Analysis, Noah Polanski

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

This study aims to analyze the cost and benefits of legalizing recreational marijuana in Ohio by estimating the monetary value of major cost and benefit items caused by legal recreational marijuana being implementing in Ohio. Key areas that are used in the analysis to give an accurate picture of the costs and benefits of marijuana are the areas of: tax revenue, the labor market, the criminal justice system, public health and safety, and educational attainment. By focusing on changes experienced in other states that have legalized, a realistic estimation of what will happen in Ohio can be made.

Data shows ...


Does Foreign Direct Investment And Trade Promote Economic Growth? Evidence From Albania, Sam Hobbs, Dimitrios Paparas, Mostafa AboElsoud 2021 Harper Adams University

Does Foreign Direct Investment And Trade Promote Economic Growth? Evidence From Albania, Sam Hobbs, Dimitrios Paparas, Mostafa Aboelsoud

Economics

Purpose: Albania has experienced a rapid transition from a centrally planned economy to a mixed economy since the fall of communism in 1989. Policy changes, trade liberalization, and privatization have come about at a rapid pace, allowing foreign direct investment (FDI) and international trade to become key components of Albania’s economy. Against this backdrop, this study investigates the relationships among FDI, trade, and economic growth in Albania.

Methodology: Annual time-series data were obtained from the World Bank. Then, the following econometric tests were performed on the variables representing FDI inflows, exports, and GDP as proxies for FDI, trade, and ...


Economic Costs Of Elevated Public Debt Levels During Banking-Crisis Recessions, Gavin T. Shilling 2021 Bowdoin College

Economic Costs Of Elevated Public Debt Levels During Banking-Crisis Recessions, Gavin T. Shilling

Honors Projects

The Great Recession of 2007 and 2008 exposed the risks of excessive borrowing. We learned the essential economic principle that greater leverage harbors greater risk. Although this global economic contraction was driven primarily by booming private credit expansion, economically inefficient incentives in the public sector, such as short-term reelection concerns, may lead politicians to engage in rash deficit- financed, fiscal spending. The primary purpose of this research is to assess the economic costs of heightened, preexisting government leverage on real economic outcomes during recessionary periods, focusing on both banking and non-banking crisis recessions. In both advanced economies and emerging economies ...


The Impact Of Covid-19 And The Lockdown On The Uk Economy, Elliot Wylie 2021 Rollins College

The Impact Of Covid-19 And The Lockdown On The Uk Economy, Elliot Wylie

Honors Program Theses

This thesis analyses the macroeconomic impacts of Covid-19 and the lockdown on the UK’s economy. GDP in the second quarter of 2020 fell by 19%, the largest quarterly decrease in GDP for the UK on record. Consumption and investment in this quarter decreased significantly resulting in the large decrease in GDP. The unemployment rate remained relatively low, for the large decrease in GDP, throughout the pandemic and only increased to 5.0% in December 2020. The effective Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) and the Self-Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS) have kept unemployment low. The schemes have paid for 12 ...


Innovations In Money And Banking Markets, Eduardo Guimaraes Minuci 2021 West Virginia University

Innovations In Money And Banking Markets, Eduardo Guimaraes Minuci

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports

The U.S. banking industry has experienced several technological and banking regulatory changes in the past two decades. This dissertation is composed of three papers that review and investigate how these banking and technological innovations have impacted depositors, bank provision of monetary assets, and bank performance. The order in which the papers are presented follows the order in which they were produced as the production of one paper helped spark ideas that led to the next.

Motivated by the fact that money has become more heterogeneous in terms of its returns, Chapter 1 focus on innovations in money markets by ...


Gambling Autonomy: The Impact Of Latin American Central Bank Independence On Risk Aversion Within Monetary Policy Implementation, Julia Duarte Schulman 2021 Claremont Colleges

Gambling Autonomy: The Impact Of Latin American Central Bank Independence On Risk Aversion Within Monetary Policy Implementation, Julia Duarte Schulman

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the effect of Latin American central bank independence (CBI) on risk-averse behaviors in monetary policy. Using a fixed effects panel regression, I document how multiple forms of monetary policy are influenced by different macroeconomic variables, conflicting policy targets and central bank independence benchmarks. The results show that increasing CBI has a positive impact on risk aversion, especially in policies targeting inflation and money supply. Additionally, the results show that interest rates and reserve requirements were especially susceptible to changes in independence, while the monetary base and volume of domestic credit were less influenced. Finally, as time and ...


Credit Cards, Credit Utilization, And Consumption, Scott Fulford, Scott Schuh 2020 Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

Credit Cards, Credit Utilization, And Consumption, Scott Fulford, Scott Schuh

Economics Faculty Working Papers Series

Credit bureau data show remarkably stable consumer utilization of unsecured debt over the business cycle, life cycle, and individually quarter-to-quarter, despite massive variation in available credit. To explain these new findings, we propose a life-cycle consumption model with heterogeneous preferences, endogenous payment choice, and the option to revolve debt for consumption smoothing. Using diary data to identify payment use, the estimated model matches consumption and credit use at every frequency and suggests that around half the population has an endogenously high marginal propensity to consume. The results suggest understanding credit availability and heterogeneous use may lead to richer counter-cyclical policies.


Stock Market Correlations To Economic Indicators, Anthony K. Quandt 2020 University of Nebraska-Lincoln

Stock Market Correlations To Economic Indicators, Anthony K. Quandt

Honors Theses, University of Nebraska-Lincoln

For this project, I researched how representative the S&P 500 (a common index of choice to represent the market) is of the economic well-being of the US. I found that stock market data can be used an as indicator of the economic well-being of the U.S.. The results do not indicate that the stock market leads to recovery, but it does suggest that it is correlated with recovery. In my analysis, I compared the S&P 500 performance to four different economic indicators: Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), The Consumer Price Index (CPI), Average Weekly Private Wages, and ...


Macroeconomic Aspects Of Maintenance Optimization Of Critical Infrastructures, S. A. Timashev, A. V. Bushinskaya 2020 Old Dominion University

Macroeconomic Aspects Of Maintenance Optimization Of Critical Infrastructures, S. A. Timashev, A. V. Bushinskaya

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

The main goal of maintenance is prevention, timely detection and elimination of failures and damage. From the point of view of critical infrastructures (CIs), the main purpose of their maintenance is to increase the safety of CIs and / or to ensure life safety. CIs should be optimal in terms of their purpose, cost, as a source of income and profit at all stages of their life cycle, and also acceptable in terms of possible loss of human lives or injuries. The paper considers the assessment of necessary optimal investments in the maintenance (time interval between subsequent maintenance), to increase the ...


Macroeconomic Stabilization In The Digital Age, John BEIRNE, David G. FERNANDEZ 2020 Asian Devopment Bank Institute

Macroeconomic Stabilization In The Digital Age, John Beirne, David G. Fernandez

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Macroeconomic Stabilization in the Digital Age provides insights into factors affecting the macroeconomic management of the economy in the digital age. Policy makers need to be aware of the increasing prominence of the digital economy and digital finance and seek to better understand how continued digitalization will affect policies aimed at managing the economy. For emerging market economies (EMEs), macroeconomic policy challenges have been exacerbated by the digital finance revolution in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, when many EMEs experienced large and volatile capital flows. Policy makers must also navigate through fluctuating ...


The Google Trends Uncertainty (Gtu) Index: A Measure Of Economic Policy Uncertainty In The Eu Using Google Trends, Luisa Weinberg 2020 New York University

The Google Trends Uncertainty (Gtu) Index: A Measure Of Economic Policy Uncertainty In The Eu Using Google Trends, Luisa Weinberg

Undergraduate Economic Review

The objective of this research is to use Google search data to build the Google Trends Uncertainty (GTU) index, a weekly measure of uncertainty surrounding economic policy in the four largest economies in the European Union: Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. By obtaining the relative popularity of Google searches with economic policy uncertainty connotations given a specific timeframe and geographical area, the frequency with which people search for terms related to economic policy effectively serves as a proxy for actual economic policy uncertainty. In its entirety, the various elements of this research allow to accurately and unbiasedly measure economic policy ...


The United Kingdom's Credit Guarantee Scheme (U.K. Gfc), Christian M. McNamara 2020 Yale University

The United Kingdom's Credit Guarantee Scheme (U.K. Gfc), Christian M. Mcnamara

Journal of Financial Crises

The September 15, 2008, bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers resulted in a collapse of wholesale funding markets that threatened the ability of UK financial institutions to continue funding themselves. By the end of the month, two leading UK banks—HBOS and Bradford & Bingley—had to be rescued, and there was a real risk that the entire financial system could collapse. Faced with the need to stabilize the system, UK regulators on October 8 introduced a package of measures that included a £250 billion Credit Guarantee Scheme (the Guarantee Scheme) aimed at providing banks with access to needed funding. Under the Guarantee ...


Sweden's Guarantee Scheme (Sweden Gfc), Lily S. Engbith, Kevin Kiernan 2020 Yale University

Sweden's Guarantee Scheme (Sweden Gfc), Lily S. Engbith, Kevin Kiernan

Journal of Financial Crises

Although Sweden was not as directly impacted by the Global Financial Crisis as some other economies, Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy on September 15, 2008, prompted Swedish authorities to take preemptive measures to protect domestic banks and financial institutions. One such program, announced on October 20, 2008, and implemented on October 29, 2008, was designed to preserve credit extension to businesses and households through what became known as the Swedish Guarantee Scheme. Per the terms of the Scheme, new short- and medium-term debt of maturities ranging from 90 days to five years issued by eligible banks would be guaranteed by the Swedish ...


The Portuguese Guarantee Scheme (Portugal Gfc), Julia A. Arnous 2020 Yale University

The Portuguese Guarantee Scheme (Portugal Gfc), Julia A. Arnous

Journal of Financial Crises

By October 2008, Portuguese banks’ access to liquidity was severely restricted due to strains in international wholesale markets. On October 12-13, 2008, the Portuguese government notified the European Commission of a guarantee scheme intended to promote solvent credit institutions’ access to liquidity as part of the European policy response to the acute financial crisis aiming to achieve and maintain financial stability. Under the scheme, the Portuguese government guaranteed financing agreements and banks’ issuance of non-subordinated short- and medium-term debt. To obtain a guarantee under the Scheme, banks paid a fee based on the maturity of the debt and a risk ...


The Polish Guarantee Scheme (Poland Gfc), Manuel Leon Hoyos 2020 Yale University

The Polish Guarantee Scheme (Poland Gfc), Manuel Leon Hoyos

Journal of Financial Crises

Faced with the global financial crisis of 2007–2009, Poland implemented a scheme of State support for financial institutions. In view of a potential global credit crunch, it aimed at improving short- and medium-term liquidity of domestic financial institutions. The scheme came into force on March 13, 2009, and was approved by the European Commission under European Union State Aid rules on September 25, 2009. The scheme enabled the Ministry of Finance, on behalf of the State Treasury, to provide support in the form of Treasury guarantees on newly issued bank debt and the exchange of Treasury bonds for less ...


The Dutch Credit Guarantee Scheme (Netherlands Gfc), Lily Engbith 2020 Yale University

The Dutch Credit Guarantee Scheme (Netherlands Gfc), Lily Engbith

Journal of Financial Crises

As fallout from the global financial crisis intensified in October 2008, governments around the world sought to implement stabilization measures in order to calm and protect their domestic markets. While not directly exposed to the subprime mortgage crisis, the Kingdom of the Netherlands announced the creation of the Dutch Credit Guarantee Scheme (the Guarantee Scheme) on October 13, 2008, to boost confidence in interbank lending markets and to ensure the flow of credit to Dutch households and companies. In establishing this program, the Dutch State Treasury Agency of the Ministry of Finance (DSTA) committed €200 billion to support the issuance ...


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