Macroeconomics Commons^™

From Ruins To Rival: How The Japanese Economic Miracle Forged A Global Power, Elizabeth Rips

The Dialogue

The Japanese Economic Miracle (1950-1975) represents one of the most sustained periods of rapid economic growth in modern history. This paper examines the extent to which political policies contributed to Japan’s transformation into a leading global industrial power during the postwar era. While some historians emphasize the decisive role of U.S. occupation reforms and American economic support, this paper argues that Japan’s rise resulted from the interaction of multiple factors. Focusing on political institutions such as the Yoshida Doctrine, the dissolution of zaibatsu’s, and the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI), the paper analyzes how state-led industrial policy fostered …

Protection Vs. Progression: A Macroeconomic Approach To Military Expenditure Direct Effects On Social Outcomes Using Ihdi Measures, Connor Graham

Global Tides

This study examines whether military expenditure reduces inequality-adjusted human development and how national governance quality moderates these effects. Using panel data covering 121 countries from 2010-2023, two-way fixed effects models are employed to estimate the relationship between military spending and the Inequality-Adjusted Human Development Index (IHDI). Three key findings emerge from the analysis based on the resulting data. First, a one percentage point increase in military spending reduces IHDI by 0.0012-0.0015 points. Second, the effects prove seven times larger in developed countries than in developing ones, which runs contrary to expectations and prior literature. Lastly, political stability emerged as a …

Gender Norms, Socio-Organizational Ergonomics, And Female Labor Force Participation In South Asia, Huma Maqsood, Nor Fatimah Che Sulaiman, Suriyani Muhamad, Nor Aizal Akmal Binti Rohaizad, Sana Mukhtar

The Qualitative Report

Socio-organizational ergonomics encompasses workplace social and cultural factors that influence inclusion, performance, and well-being. Gender-based socio-organizational ergonomics has both microeconomic and macroeconomic implications. In this context, underutilization of women’s economic potential, evidenced by low female labor force participation, emerges as a critical factor that compromises sustainable growth in developing countries. To study the phenomenon, we examined the impact of gender norms on socio-organizational ergonomics and female labor force participation in South Asia. Qualitative data from in-depth interviews with 20 female participants are thematically analyzed using Braun and Clarke’s TA framework. Our findings highlight that socio-organizational ergonomics in South Asia is …

The Writing On The Wall: The Rise Of Applied Ai And The Life-Or-Death Choice Every Ceo Must Make Now, Gary Sheng, Ron Roberts

Digital Laboratory: Publisher of Internet Journal

Applied AI is putting AI to its highest and best use: running your organization as autonomously as possible so you can deliver value for humanity while maximizing the scale of the value. The economy is splitting. Organizations that adopt applied AI are expanding their capacity, accelerating their impact, and pulling ahead. Those that don't are quietly becoming irrelevant, not because they're doing bad work, but because the gap between what they can do and what the moment requires is widening every day. This is not a technology question. It is a leadership question. This paper is written for organizational leaders, …

Converting The Social Security Trust Fund Into A Sovereign Wealth Fund: A Proposal To Secure The Future, Keanu Moore

Dartmouth College Master’s Theses

This thesis proposes the conversion of the Social Security Trust Fund into a sovereign wealth fund (SWF), paired with the phased creation of a mandatory retirement savings system for all working-age Americans. In response to forecasts projecting Trust Fund depletion by 2034, the proposed portfolio shift would diversify assets beyond U.S. Treasuries into global equities, real estate, alternatives, and fixed income, with the goal of enhancing long-term returns while remaining passively managed. While this reform would extend the Fund’s solvency, it is not, on its own, a permanent fix. To ensure structural sustainability beyond the exhaustion date, the thesis proposes …

Black Swans And Financial Stability: A Framework For Building Resilience, Daniel J. Barth, Stacey L. Schreft

Journal of Financial Crises

This article refines the concept of black swans, typically described as highly unlikely and catastrophic events, to be internally consistent. It explores features of the financial system that prevent the eradication of black swans. The main implication is the need to enhance the financial system’s resilience to withstand unforeseen events rather than focus on past crises. The article introduces a “resilience principle” for designing official-sector policies that can achieve such goals. The principle calls for policies that are adaptable, universal, and systemic. The article provides examples of policies with these features, assuming that the official sector is not better positioned …

Cbdcs Vs Decentralized Currencies: Considerations For 21st Century Global Financial Challenges, Andrew Michael Sobhy, Shuai Wang

The Downtown Review: An Interdisciplinary Journal Written and Peer-Reviewed by Mandel Honors College Students at Cleveland State University

As digital currencies gain prominence in everyday life, policymakers in the United States at the federal, state, and local levels debate the potential for innovation, surveillance, global relations, and a plethora of areas that concern citizens. While existing literature highlights the opportunities and pitfalls within this new digital age, including inclusivity and challenges to traditional banking, this study aims to contribute a quantitative approach to the discussion utilizing Federal Reserve data, studies from financial institutions, and various credible resources that hold a stake. Specifically, comparing novel Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDCs) and Decentralized Financial Currencies (DeFi) will provide a foundation …

Mathematical Appendix To The Transformation Problem, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes.

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Marx’s theory of value transformation [Mathematical appendix, unpublished manuscript].

An Intro To History Of Economic Crisis, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). An introduction to the history of crisis theories [Unpublished essay]. Anwar Shaikh, PhD.

• Weisskopf, T. E. (n.d.). Marxist perspectives on cyclical crises [Unpublished essay].

Age Structure And Inflation Dynamics In Pacific Island Economies, August Letlet, Karan Rai, Bhavesh Garg

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study uses the panel of six Pacific Island Countries (PICs) to investigate the relationship between changing age structures and inflation. The findings suggest that both aggregated and disaggregated shares of the working-age population exert disinflationary pressure. This supports the life cycle hypothesis, which postulates that people in their productive years tend to save and produce more than they consume, fostering economic stability and managing inflation. Conversely, the findings indicate that old-age dependency contributes to inflationary pressures. These insights underscore the importance of demographic dynamics in shaping inflation trends and provide valuable guidance for policymakers aiming to maintain price stability.

Disaggregated Economic Complexity And Inflation In Oecd Countries, Raymond L. Aor, Afees A. Salisu

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study probes the intricate relationship between economic complexity and inflation dynamics, an area that has been relatively under-researched despite the potential for economic complexity to predict inflation. We focus on selected OECD countries and use panel data from 1998 to 2021. Utilizing a Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PARDL) model, we analyze both short- and long-term dynamics across various components of inflation. Our analysis encompasses both aggregate and disaggregated indicators of complexity, including ECI-Trade, ECI-Technology, and ECI-Research. The results indicate that the impact of economic complexity on inflation differs depending on the type of inflation and the time frame considered. …

Projecting Inflation Tail Risks In A Small Open Economy: Some Evidence From Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan, Jordan Lee

Research Collection School Of Economics

This study empirically assesses the drivers of risks to the inflation outlook for a small open economy like Singapore. We apply the inflation-at-risk framework of López-Salido and Loria (2020) and incorporate projections from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) as point forecasts of inflation. Our findings show that macro-financial risk factors—shaped by Singapore’s openness, role as a financial hub, and exchange rate–centered monetary policy framework—enter nonlinearly into inflation risk models and exert differentiated effects. Foreign price pressures heighten upside risks, and exchange rate policy has proven effective at mitigating them. Tighter global financial conditions amplify inflation risks through cost-push channels, …

Interest Rate And Inflation Control In Egypt: Evaluating Policy Efficiency (1976-2023), Fatma Abouzeid

Theses and Dissertations

Inflation has been a persistent problem in Egypt peaking with unprecedented levels throughout the past decades affecting economic stability and living standards in the country. Controlling inflation through interest rate has been a major tool adopted by the monetary authorities in Egypt with no real satisfactory outcome with respect to inflation levels. This links to a theoretical debate in economic literate on the relationship between interest rate and inflation which represents a major controversy in the field. The study examines this controversy in the case of Egypt to reach a conclusion on the actual relationship between these two central economic …

The Satu Wakaf Indonesia Application Development Strategy, Nurul Huda, Nova Rini, Rahma Aini Nur, Ariel Nian Gani, Muhammad Rofi'i, Nur Syamsudin Buchori

Journal of Strategic and Global Studies

The Satu Wakaf Indonesia application is a new platform for digital waqf, which necessitates a strategic policy for its development. The needs of strategic policy stand from the current problems that occur in the implementation of the application. The objectives of this study are: (1) the key sub-elements of the Satu Wakaf Indonesia development strategy, and (2) The Satu Wakaf Indonesia development strategy using the ISM approach. The research method used is a qualitative method with the Interpretive Structural Modelling (ISM) approach. The data source for this study is the results of filling out questionnaires by expert informants. The results …

Modeling Taiwanese Monetary Policy: Augmented Taylor And Mccallum Rules, Yu-Chi (Yunnie) Cheng

CMC Senior Theses

This study examines how price-based and quantity-based monetary frameworks explain the policy actions of the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) within the context of a trade-dependent, small open economy. Utilizing a comparative empirical analysis of Taylor and McCallum rules from 2000 to 2025, the research finds that Taylor rule’s superior fit is contingent upon the inclusion of the augmented variables, such as federal funds rate, Financial Stress Index, and sovereign credit premiums, revealing a policy stance that is deeply reactive to international financial conditions. In contrast, the McCallum rule demonstrates remarkable parsimony, explaining 45% of the variance …

Understanding Housing Market Adjustment: Evidence From Population Shocks, Regulation, And Monetary Policy, Michael Tyler Duncan

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

This dissertation studies how housing markets adjust to demographic shocks, local regulation, and macroeconomic policy through three related essays. Chapter 1 develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model and panel VECM evidence to study how population volatility affects housing prices, rents, and construction. It finds that population shocks generate strong price responses across housing markets and more pronounced effects in tight housing markets and declining regions. Chapter 2 examines local rental registry policies using county-level difference-in-differences analysis and finds limited aggregate effects but meaningful heterogeneity across treatment intensity and market segments. Chapter 3 revisits the macro-housing VAR literature on …

From Sentiment And Risk To Trade: A Country-Level Study On Geopolitical Trade Effects, Seung Heo

Publications and Research

Can geopolitical risk reshape international trade? I construct directed, monthly measures of bilateral geopolitical risk and its associated sentiment from approximately 5.1 million news articles in the GDELT Event Database, and estimate their effect on trade among eight Asia-Pacific economies at the HS2 product level over 2015--2025, using Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood gravity local projections with high-dimensional fixed effects. Pooled across countries, rising risk produces an immediate expansion of trade led by verbal threats and by news tone orthogonal to event content, rather than by material acts, indicating that how a conflict is reported can move trade before the conflict materializes. A …

Converging, But Not Together: Regional Growth After Eu Enlargement, Armine Kardashyan

CMC Senior Theses

This paper studies whether poorer regions in Central and Eastern Europe have caught up to richer ones since EU enlargement, and whether any observed catch-up reflects absolute convergence or convergence conditional on regional fundamentals. Using annual NUTS-3 data for eleven Central and Eastern European member states from 2000 to 2023, I estimate rolling ten-year convergence regressions within a steady-state framework in which regional GDP per capita depends on investment, human capital, and within-window exposure to EU membership.

The results show strong evidence of conditional convergence during the early and middle phases of enlargement. Regions that begin a window above their …

Wiener-Granger Causality To Model Banking Sector Contagion, Riya Bhasin

CMC Senior Theses

In this thesis, we explore the main drivers behind the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and how the interconnectivity of banking sectors contributed to the worldwide spread of its effects. To understand how this became a global phenomenon, we apply linear Wiener-Granger Causality as a form of network analysis, building on pre-existing methodology in order to study continent banking indices. We find connections across locales on the continent and country level, but ones that are weak. Our modelling was insufficient to completely capture existing and well-known relationships accurately. This occurs due to limitations of the data and of the linear models’ …

Teaching A New Dog Old Tricks: How Buy Now Pay Later Responds To Consumer Financial Strength, Ryunosuke Nakase

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis aims to answer three questions. 1) How does BNPL usage in the US respond to macroeconomic conditions reflective of consumer strength? 2) Does BNPL debt migrate toward credit cards during months following high BNPL spend? 3) How does BNPL respond to macroeconomic conditions at the firm level? I constructed a 4 year monthly and quarterly time series dataset spanning from 2021 to 2025. I utilize time series OLS regressions to examine the short-term behavior of BNPL volume monthly at the aggregate level and quarterly at the firm level. At the aggregate level, BNPL volume in the US is …

Demographics, Macroeconomy, Or Monetary Policy: What Drives Japan’S Short Run Economic Movements Since 1991?, James Ac Raymond Ii

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines how Japan’s post-1991 macroeconomy behaves by analyzing quarterly inflation, money growth, and equity returns, with a focus on whether demographic change, macroeconomic indicators, or monetary policy better explains short run movements. Using Newey West regressions, the results show that demographics exert almost no influence at short horizons, while major Bank of Japan policy regimes such as QQE, NIRP, and YCC strongly shape liquidity conditions and dominate both money growth and equity performance. The findings suggest that demographic change matters primarily as a long run force that creates a low-rate environment, while short run dynamics are driven almost …

Determinants Of The U.S. Experience Economy: A Macroeconomic, Demographic, And Technological Analysis, 1984–2023, Chloe Ross

CMC Senior Theses

Pine and Gilmore et al. 1999 examine American consumers’ preferences for experiences over durable goods. Since then, there has been a multitude of research on the psychology behind this shift in consumption preferences, and there has been an abundance of media coverage of the new “experience economy.” This thesis goes beyond psychology and examines the macroeconomic, demographic, and technological determinants of experiential spending in the United States from 1984 to 2023. I use annual data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Expenditure Survey (CES) and variables from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), US …

Macroeconomic Resilience And Sentiment Dynamics In The Global Luxury Fashion Industry, Mehr Gupta

CMC Senior Theses

The global luxury fashion industry is often viewed as a sector where broad economic conditions intersect with individual spending behavior. Yet despite this common assumption, it remains unclear whether macroeconomic fluctuations meaningfully shape luxury firms’ financial performance. This thesis examines the relationship between four key macroeconomic indicators - consumer sentiment, disposable income, unemployment, and exchange rates - and firm-level quarterly revenue for twelve publicly listed luxury companies from the early 2000s through 2024. Firm financial data from S&P Capital IQ are matched with macroeconomic measures from the Federal Reserve (FRED), and the analysis employs a two-way fixed-effects framework with firm …

The Tcja And Shareholder Payouts, Carson T. Bloom

CMC Senior Theses

Abstract

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) provided corporations an estimated $233 billion in tax savings, yet relatively little is known about how firms allocated this cash windfall. This study examines whether growth and mature firms differed in whether they used these tax savings to distribute dividends and repurchase shares. Using panel data on publicly traded North American firms from 2016–2019, I classify firms as either growth or mature based on their cash-flow patterns and estimate the effects of the TCJA on their behavior using a difference-in-differences design.

The results indicate that mature firms increased shareholder payouts significantly more …

An Examination Of Remittance Inflow Variation In Net-Emigration Countries, Andrew Rizko

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the structural and institutional determinants of remittance inflows in a panel of 40 net-emigration countries from 2000 to 2024. By restricting the sample to countries with negative average net migration, the analysis holds migration pressure constant and isolates the role of domestic conditions in explaining cross-country variation in remittance dependence. Using fixed effects and correlated random effects (Mundlak) estimators, I find that labor force participation is the most robust within-country determinant: a one percentage point increase is associated with approximately a 2.3 percent decline in remittance inflows, consistent with remittances functioning as a structural need in contexts …

Multivariate Quantile Autoregression-Mixed Data Sampling (Mvqar-Midas) Modeling Of Cost Of Living And Supply Chain Dynamics In Canada., Patrick Gbolonyo

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

In recent years, the rising cost of living as a result of persistent inflationary pressures, disruptions in the global supply chains, and changes in the macroeconomic landscape has become a critical topic of discussion. To address this, we move beyond a mean-based framework and employ a quantile regression approach. This allows the persistence of each series and the transmis- sion of shocks between the Consumer Price Index (CPI) (the total CPI which is a percentage change over the past 12 months), the Interest Rate (IR)(the target for the overnight rate), the New Housing Price Index (NHPI), and high-frequency supply chain …

Essays On Public Policy, Labor Markets, And Regional Economics, Toby Heaney

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

This dissertation consists of three empirical essays examining how economic and political outcomes respond to changes in public policy, information, and local economic conditions. Across the three studies, the dissertation applies empirical methods to questions in political economy, economic forecasting, and regional economics, with particular attention to how the effects of economic shocks and policy changes vary across individuals, markets, and geographic areas.

The first essay examines the role of policy salience in electoral outcomes. Building on rational-choice and median-voter models, it argues that voters may respond disproportionately to policies that impose concentrated and highly visible costs, even when those …

Essays On Indian Inflation Targeting, Dipankar Biswas

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

This dissertation explores the efficacy and impact of inflation targeting as the monetary policy framework with a specific focus on India after its formal adoption of the inflation-targeting framework in 2016.

The first chapter focuses on the history of monetary policy framework in India. It discusses, in detail, the different monetary policy frameworks, namely Credit Planning, Flexible Monetary-Targeting, and Multiple-Indicator approaches, adopted by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) (i.e., the monetary authority of the country), before arriving at the adoption of the inflation-targeting framework. The monetary policy transmission process in India during the different global turmoil segments of the …

Three Essays In Labor Economics, Yoritsugu Shimazu

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

The first chapter decomposes aggregate productivity growth into a pure-technology contribution and an allocative-efficiency contribution for Japan and the United States, applying a single estimation methodology symmetrically to comparable firm-level panels. Production functions are estimated by the Gandhi, Navarro, and Rivers (2020) gross-output procedure under monopolistic competition (GNR-MC), which recovers firm-level price markups and wage markdowns, and these enter the Baqaee–Farhi (2020) decomposition through the closed form of Aoki et al. (2024). Both panels are drawn from Compustat with identical pre-processing and estimation, and we close the markup-level identification gap that GNR leave open with a normalization anchored on the …

The Impact Of Student Achievement On Economic Growth: A Pisa-Based Analysis Of Gdp Per Capita, Emma Rose Nasr

Undergraduate Theses and Capstone Projects

This study investigates the extent to which international student achievement, measured through PISA assessments in mathematics, reading, and science, explains cross-country differences in economic development. Using an unbalanced panel data set combining PISA results from 2015, 2018, and 2022 with macroeconomic indicators from the World Development Indicators, I estimate multiple regression models, including pooled OLS, country and time fixed effects, and subsample analyses for developed and developing countries. Results from the pooled model indicate strong positive associations between PISA scores and GDP per capita, consistent with human capital theory. However, these relationships diminish under fixed effects specifications, suggesting that cross-country …