Macroeconomics Commons^™

Bridging Fiscal Sustainability And Health Equity: A Policy Analysis Of California’S Healthcare Coverage Safeguards, Guadalupe Castaneda Martinez

Master's Projects and Capstones

Without structural policy intervention, approximately 4.6 million Californians remain at risk of being uninsured by 2030, worsening racial and ethnic health disparities and hospital uncompensated care burdens. This policy analysis advocates for a hybrid universal coverage model combining sliding-scale subsidies (California Senate Bill 78) with full-scope Medi-Cal expansion for all income-eligible residents regardless of legal status (California Assembly Bill 133). The framework relies on existing funding mechanisms, including the Managed Care Organization tax and the Health Care Affordability Reserve Fund. Comparative analysis indicates that market-only subsidies leave severe equity gaps, whereas immediate single-payer transitions pose substantial fiscal and administrative risks. …

The Impact Of Corruption On Private Investment In The Mena Region: An Empirical Study On The Period Of 1996-2023, Mohamed A. El Regdawy

Theses and Dissertations

This study aims to examine and understand empirically the impact of corruption on private investment in the MENA region during the period of 1996-2023, as private investment is a key enabler for sustainable economic growth. To better understand such a relationship, a Pooled Mean Group estimator was implemented to figure out this relationship in both the short run and long run. The findings confirm that in the long run, within the context of MENA, corruption was used as a tool to overcome the lack of quality in the regulations that were supposed to enable the role of the private sector. …

The Role Of Bank Portfolio Heterogeneity In The Fiscal Stimulus Policy In Indonesia, Michael Kusuma, Brigitha Mega Rebeca

BISNIS & BIROKRASI: Jurnal Ilmu Administrasi dan Organisasi

Fiscal stimulus transmission is often hindered by banking frictions from risk-averse behavior and channel specialization. To evaluate the fiscal stimulus policy in Indonesia, this study introduces a modified Input-Output (I-O) framework integrated with bank portfolio-based shock vectors. This approach captures banking frictions by incorporating institution-specific portfolio weights into the macro-simulation framework, providing a more realistic assessment than standard uniform-transmission assumptions. Three scenarios are simulated (policy design, interim realization, and expansionary response) to assess the macroeconomic impacts of credit concentration. The results reveal a significant gap between the initial policy design and its actual realization, generating an economic opportunity loss of …

Controlling Fiscal Destiny: Evaluating The Effect Of State Tax Composition On Resilience During Defined Shock Period, Calloway R. Bills

Honors Theses

State governments operate under strict fiscal constraints that limit their ability to respond to economic downturns through borrowing or monetary policy, making tax composition a key determinant of fiscal stability. This paper evaluates how variation in state tax revenue composition affects fiscal resilience during economic shocks, focusing on the Great Recession. While prior research shows that individual tax instruments differ in cyclicality, less is known about how overall tax structure shapes revenue performance during and after shocks. Using a panel dataset of U.S. states from 1988 to 2024, this study measures resilience through two outcomes: the magnitude of revenue decline …

The Hypocrisy Of The Wizards—A Proposal To Correct Incentives In Higher Education Loan Financing, Caden Benedict

School of Public Policy Capstones

This paper explores the origins of the student loan debt crisis and proposes tying university incentives to graduates' repayment plans and disclosing median earnings for degrees before students apply. Specifically, while there are numerous factors explaining why the price of education has increased dramatically since the 1970s, this paper proposes solutions that will specifically target university moral hazards by requiring universities fund: (1) the current subsidies to federal student loan repayments under income-driven plans as the House of Representatives intended before the Senate removed "risk-sharing," and (2) bankruptcy law discharge amounts. Moreover, requiring universities to disclose the median earnings of …

Protection Vs. Progression: A Macroeconomic Approach To Military Expenditure Direct Effects On Social Outcomes Using Ihdi Measures, Connor Graham

Global Tides

This study examines whether military expenditure reduces inequality-adjusted human development and how national governance quality moderates these effects. Using panel data covering 121 countries from 2010-2023, two-way fixed effects models are employed to estimate the relationship between military spending and the Inequality-Adjusted Human Development Index (IHDI). Three key findings emerge from the analysis based on the resulting data. First, a one percentage point increase in military spending reduces IHDI by 0.0012-0.0015 points. Second, the effects prove seven times larger in developed countries than in developing ones, which runs contrary to expectations and prior literature. Lastly, political stability emerged as a …

Lessons Learned: Andreas Verykios And Kostas Tsatsaronis, Mercedes Cardona

Journal of Financial Crises

Andreas Verykios was appointed in 2018 to lead the board of directors of the General Council of the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund (HFSF), an independent special purpose vehicle created to stabilize the Greek banking sector in the wake of the country’s debt crisis. The Greek economy was badly affected by the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the Sovereign Debt Crisis, when the government was found to have underreported its fiscal deficits and public debt. This led to a downgrade and eventual default of its sovereign bonds, requiring assistance from the European Commission. From 2010 through 2018, the commission implemented three …

Lessons Learned: Paul Tucker, Salil Gupta

Journal of Financial Crises

After joining the Bank of England (BoE) in 1980, Sir Paul Tucker held a number of positions of increasing responsibility including serving as a member of several key committees. Tucker played a crucial role in the BoE’s response to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) as director for markets, through March 2009, then as deputy governor of the bank until November 2013. Post-crisis, he has been instrumental in constructing the international regulatory framework on financial stability. From 2016 to 2021, Tucker also chaired the Systemic Risk Council.

Currently, Tucker is a research fellow at Harvard Kennedy School, Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business …

Lessons Learned: Ewald Nowotny, Maryanne Chute Lynch, Rosalind Z. Wiggins

Journal of Financial Crises

Ewald Nowotny was appointed governor of the National Bank of Austria in September 2008 at the start of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), having previously served as a vice president of the European Investment Bank in Luxembourg, the house bank of the European Union. Nowotny participated in the implementation of the multilateral stabilization framework known as the Vienna Initiative, which helped restore stability in the financial markets of Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe during the GFC. Working with the Austrian Central Bank, the European Commission, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), he steered the Austrian economy away from recession. During …

Lessons Learned: Pedro Machado, Mercedes Cardona

Journal of Financial Crises

Pedro Machado began his career as a legal adviser to the European Central Bank in the years leading up the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), then joined the Bank of Portugal (BOP) in 2006, where he has held several positions. He was chief of staff to Portugal’s minister of state and finance in 2011, during the European Sovereign Debt Crisis, when the government negotiated a bailout with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and European Union. He returned to the BOP, as deputy director of the prudential supervision department, while the program was being implemented. The EUR 78 billion bailout was largely …

Investigating The Relationship Between Noun Classes And Plant Folk Taxonomy In Chasu Language Of Kilimanjaro Region In Tanzania, Peter Rabson Mziray

Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences

The current study investigates the relationship between noun classes and plant folk taxonomy in Chasu (G 22). The study focuses on two objectives: the first objective is to describe the plant folk taxonomy in Chasu and the second objective is to determine the relationship between noun classes and plant folk taxonomy in Chasu. Data were collected from rural villages in Same and Mwanga districts by using free listing, field interviews (jungle-walk-and-identify), and written texts containing Chasu plant names. The findings reveal that Chasu folk taxonomy reflects different ethnobotanical categories; including a unique beginner which is mmea/mimea ‘plant(s)’, and three life …

Exit Policy, Liquidity Normalization, And Lts Implications On Central Bank Policy Transmission, Alexander Lubis, Rangga Pratama, Merlin Dwi Yunaniar, Wahyu Agung Nugroho, Dian Prima Susiandri

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

The objective of this study is to determine the implications for the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission by examining the impact of specific policy toolkits in both Advanced Economy (AE) and Emerging Market (EM) countries during crises and during normalization (exit policy) upon crisis resolution. The analysis conducted using the VECM method on a number of AE and EM countries demonstrates that the response of bank interest rates (credit) is consistent with changes in policy rates and substantially diverges from Quantitative Easing (QE) policy in both the short and long term. However, the efficacy of monetary policy transmission appears to …

Synthetic Statocracy - Pakistan’S Self-Created Inferno: Examining The Causes And Consequences Of Military Dominance In Pakistan, Umer Lakhani

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the history of military rule in Pakistan. Applying the framework of Johannes Gerschewski in The Three Pillars of Stability: Legitimation, Repression and Co-Optation in Autocratic Regimes, this paper looks to explain how military rulers who presided over the three periods of military rule in Pakistan consolidated and maintained their power, as well as the effects that these periods of rule had on Pakistani society. This paper will also supplement Gerschewski’s general framework by applying the findings of various established authors who have been published extensively on Pakistan’s political history, economy and relationship with the military. Such authors …

Maximum Trimmed Likelihood Estimation For Discrete Multivariate Vasicek Processes, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Michael Pokojovy, Andrews T. Anum, Ebenezer Nkum

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

The multivariate Vasicek model is commonly used to capture mean-reverting dynamics typical for short rates, asset price stochastic log-volatilities, etc. Reparametrizing the discretized problem as a VAR(1) model, the parameters are oftentimes estimated using the multivariate least squares (MLS) method, which can be susceptible to outliers. To account for potential model violations, a maximum trimmed likelihood estimation (MTLE) approach is utilized to derive a system of nonlinear estimating equations, and an iterative procedure is developed to solve the latter. In addition to robustness, our new technique allows for reliable recovery of the long-term mean, unlike existing methodologies. A set of …

Civilian Manufacturing And National Defense: Strategic Planning For Globalization's Challenges, Izeck Kohler

Graduate Theses/Dissertations

This thesis examines the interconnection between civilian manufacturing and national defense within the context of globalization. The study aims to identify the challenges faced by the United States in maintaining its manufacturing capabilities and to propose strategic solutions to address these challenges. Through a comprehensive analysis of historical data, case studies, and policy recommendations, the research highlights the critical role of specialized and process manufacturing sectors towards national defense. The findings suggest that the creation of a federal executive department, strategic investment, diversification, policy re-evaluation, and collaborating with allies are essential for sustaining national defense capabilities. The study concludes with …

Selected U.S. Government Statistical Agencies And Their Data, Bert Chapman

Libraries Faculty and Staff Presentations

Provides introductory and detailed overview of U.S. Government agencies statistics. Includes examples of how an individual U.S. law authorizes government agencies to compile statistics for particular congressional committees and the general public. Statistics cover topics such as demography, defense, foreign assistance, economic growth, criminal justice, energy, Social Security, and Medicare.

Driving Green Investments To Address Climate Change, Baptiste Gibrat

Dartmouth College Master’s Theses

The climate crisis is no longer news, and society needs to accelerate the transition to net zero emissions. Otherwise, the consequences of climate change will become increasingly catastrophic.

This thesis develops a framework to drive green investments, which reduce society’s dependance on fossil fuels. Initially, the research provides a comprehensive examination of these investments, followed by an exploration of three strategies to enhance their adoption: leveraging financial instruments and capital markets, implementing regulatory frameworks, and harnessing the power of technologies. To integrate these elements within a comprehensive framework, the study employs market research, reviews relevant literature, and includes interviews with …

A Cross-Country Analysis Of China’S Belt And Road Initiative, Leah Shoff

International Studies (MA) Theses

China established The Belt and Road Initiative in 2013 to unite the global economy as well as bolter their own political and economic interests. Though the initiative is relatively new, it is important to understand how the Belt and Road Initiative could impact the global economy. This program is open to any country in the world that seeks to improve its infrastructure. However, critics of China’s proposal have questioned whether countries participating in the program gain economically. Through evaluating the relationship between GDP, time, and other significant data provided by the IMF, a cross-country comparison between Pakistan and the Philippines …

The Effect Of Crime On Tourism In Indonesia, Muhammad Farhan, Hera Susanti

Journal of Strategic and Global Studies

Tourism sector is widely known as one of economic sectors that can be the engine of economic growth in an effort to reduce poverty in a country. However, growth in the tourism sector can be influenced by safety factors. Tourists tend to avoid tourism destination areas with high crime rates in order to avoid becoming victims of crime. This study aims to analyze the effect of crime on the number of tourist arrivals in Indonesia by using four proxies of crime, which are total crime rate, property crime rate, violent crime rate, and fraud crime rate. This study utilizes a …

The New China Model: Combating Economic And Political Order, Jack R. Swords

Dartmouth College Master’s Theses

Contemporary world politics centers around the actions of the two largest powers on Earth, the United States and China. They are both each other’s greatest adversary yet at the same time are each other’s largest trading partners. This thesis explores the nature of China’s economic climate that has seen it grow to one of the world’s foremost powers. However, the East Asian Nation faces economic challenges centered around the three D’s: Debt, Deflation, and Demographics. This thesis analyses what the nature of these challenges are and how China is responding to them within the ever-advancing world of economic and political …

Examining The Aggregate Economic Impacts Of Criminal Record Expungement In Marion County, Indiana, Zane Callison

Lux et Fides: A Journal for Undergraduate Christian Scholars

This article investigates the individual economic effects of criminal record expungement identified in a previous article as they appear in the aggregate, particularly rates of unemployment and wages. As interest around the effects of overincarceration increases, criminal record expungement offers a possible solution to the economic woes faced by justice-involved individuals. To that end, this article examines unemployment rates and per capita personal income in Marion County, Indiana, where implementation of the state of Indiana’s criminal record expungement statute has been exceptionally effective. After an analysis, we find that criminal record expungement bears only a light or unclear causal relationship …

De-Escalating The United States-China Trade War Using A Global Conflict Resolution Methodology Framework, Angelina Kapp

Undergraduate Honors Theses

How can the United States and China collaboratively de-escalate their current trade relationship using a conflict resolution methodology to foster economic growth and foreign investor confidence in the evolving landscape of global trade? This paper will serve as a guide to those wanting to gain a comprehensive understanding of the macroeconomic causes and impacts of the contentious trade war between the U.S. and China. The year 2018 can be attributed to the start of the war when then-President Donald Trump implemented tariffs on Chinese goods and products. These back-and-forth financial and economic measures have been continually imposed to this day …

Evaluating Macro-Policy Attitudes About Abortion In The United States, Christopher Olds, Miriam Guadalupe Benavides-Ortega, Madison May Albers, Rocio Figueroa-Castro

SACAD: Scholarly Activities

Prior research on public opinion demonstrates attitudes about major issues often shift/move together. In other words, public support for government involvement in domestic affairs across multiple policy areas can be indicative of the general policy sentiment or public mood at any given point in time. In exploring specific issue areas in isolation, researchers can assess whether change in opinion on an issue area is significantly linked to fluctuations in views about macroeconomic conditions. The current research project will contrast quarterly public support for government involvement in the issue area of abortion through vector autoregression time series techniques examining whether prior …

Performance And Policy Indexes In Carbon Pricing Efficacy: A Cross-Country Analysis Of Policy Impact (2012-2020), Ke (Zoky) Zhou

Honors Theses

Climate change poses a significant threat to global ecosystems and human societies, driven largely by CO2 emissions from various economic activities. This macroeconomic cross-country study empirically assesses the effectiveness of carbon pricing in reducing CO2 emissions across three periods: 2012-2017, 2015-2019, and 2015-2020. Building on the foundational research by Best et al. (2020), the analysis extends to more recent data, capturing the evolving impacts of carbon pricing amid changing global economic and policy landscapes. A key advancement in this research is the creation and integration of two comprehensive indexes—a performance index and a policy index—constructed from 14 environmental performance or …

Reducing Food Scarcity: The Benefits Of Urban Farming, S.A. Claudell, Emilio Mejia

Journal of Nonprofit Innovation

Urban farming can enhance the lives of communities and help reduce food scarcity. This paper presents a conceptual prototype of an efficient urban farming community that can be scaled for a single apartment building or an entire community across all global geoeconomics regions, including densely populated cities and rural, developing towns and communities. When deployed in coordination with smart crop choices, local farm support, and efficient transportation then the result isn’t just sustainability, but also increasing fresh produce accessibility, optimizing nutritional value, eliminating the use of ‘forever chemicals’, reducing transportation costs, and fostering global environmental benefits.

Imagine Doris, who is …

Minimum Exchange Rate And A Negative Interest Rate: The Swiss National Bank’S Unconventional Monetary Policy During Eurozone Volatility, Wally Bargeron

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Monetary policy is one of the most important tools that a government has to influence its economy. This means the ability for a country to determine their own monetary policy is important to that country’s autonomy. Switzerland has consistently based its decisions on what would afford it the highest level of autonomy, including the decision not to join the European Union and subsequently the decision to retain their own currency.

The Swiss National Bank retains the mandate to keep price levels (inflation) stable, but it is challenged by an appreciating currency. Because the Swiss Franc is a safe-haven currency, money …

Chinese Political Rhetoric And Ideology: Tension And Pretension, Israel Paredes

Honors Theses

This changing nature of the Chinese government’s ideology leads one to believe that its core beliefs are not dogmatic, despite the foundation for their ideology being rooted in specific societal and economic theories. Starting with Mao Zedong to modern day, the Chinese government officials will continue to support the original tenets (and, no doubt, future presidents’ additions to the tenets). However, the interpretation of their ideology over time is fluid and is used to support policies and actions during a political cycle. Chinese political leaders are unlikely to disagree with a past leaders, and will rather use their own interpretation …

On Income Inequality And Poverty In Egypt: Is Prosperity Immoral?, Mohamed Karim Lotfy Abdelkhalek

Theses and Dissertations

There are varying perspectives on, and divergent solutions to, the phenomena of income inequality and poverty. There seems to be polarizing views on both of these sensitive topics. One side of the argument believes income inequality should in itself be mitigated through redistribution measures, while the other argues that this should not be the focus of policy makers, as it deters them from facing the more pressing issue facing society – which is absolute poverty. The relationship between income inequality, poverty, and citizen well-being in Egypt is one that warrants further research, and this paper aims to fill this lacuna. …

Lessons Learned: Christopher Spoth, Sandra Ward

Journal of Financial Crises

As senior deputy director of the Division of Supervision and Consumer Protection at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), Spoth led examinations, enforcement actions, problem bank remediations, and failure resolutions, among a range of responsibilities. During the Global Financial Crisis, he was on the front lines of fast-moving policy discussions and actions to help stabilize the financial system, and he oversaw the closure and restructuring of some of the nation’s largest banks. This abstract is based on an interview with Spoth on February 4, 2021.

Lessons Learned: Kevin Warsh, Matthew A. Lieber

Journal of Financial Crises

As senior deputy director of the Division of Supervision and Consumer Protection at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), Spoth led examinations, enforcement actions, problem bank remediations, and failure resolutions, among a range of responsibilities. During the Global Financial Crisis, he was on the front lines of fast-moving policy discussions and actions to help stabilize the financial system, and he oversaw the closure and restructuring of some of the nation’s largest banks. This abstract is based on an interview with Spoth on February 4, 2021.