Macroeconomics Commons^™

Controlling Fiscal Destiny: Evaluating The Effect Of State Tax Composition On Resilience During Defined Shock Period, Calloway R. Bills

Honors Theses

State governments operate under strict fiscal constraints that limit their ability to respond to economic downturns through borrowing or monetary policy, making tax composition a key determinant of fiscal stability. This paper evaluates how variation in state tax revenue composition affects fiscal resilience during economic shocks, focusing on the Great Recession. While prior research shows that individual tax instruments differ in cyclicality, less is known about how overall tax structure shapes revenue performance during and after shocks. Using a panel dataset of U.S. states from 1988 to 2024, this study measures resilience through two outcomes: the magnitude of revenue decline …

Accountability And Efficiency: Compiled Case Studies On Economic Development, Spending, And Global Markets, Jacob W. Grimsley

Honors Theses

This is a compilation of cases worked throughout the course of one year. These cases were created and assigned for an accountancy course focused on research and writing. The cases focus on accounting related topics, while also pertaining to political happenings as well as general economic topics.

Case 02 was completed in collaboration with other honors students, and these students are indicated on the page preceding this case.

Cases 05 and 06 pertain to a semester-long project focused on the development of a Mississippi based business. This case was also completed with the help of other students, as indicated on …

Asymmetric Recovery: Understanding The Differences In Commercial And Residential Recovery Patterns Following The 2008 Financial Crisis, Avery J. Flynn

Honors Theses

The 2008 financial crisis revealed differences in economic recovery patterns between businesses and households. This study analyzes the asymmetry in loan delinquency rates between commercial and residential sectors, with data showing commercial rates peaked at 8.51% in 2010 while residential rates reached 10.88%, followed by significantly different recovery trajectories.

The research investigates how differing legal protections created varying incentives to cut costs. Through analyzing Federal Reserve data, Census Bureau surveys, and expenditure records, this study found the commercial sector recovered 64% within three years of its peak, compared to only 17% for the residential sector.

During the recession, businesses reduced …

Almost Last Again? Mississippi's Labor Force Participation Rate: Causes And Solutions, John Martin Fox

Honors Theses

Mississippi is currently ranked second to last in labor force participation rate in the country. This is the latest damning statistic inhibiting the state from growing and becoming a more nationally recognized state with higher economic output. This thesis examines how Mississippi arrived at this bleak labor force participation rate and what is currently ongoing to alleviate it. It also examines some possible proposed solutions to accelerate those efforts. Through extensive research and numerous interviews with officials from public and private sector employees directly dealing with this predicament, this thesis has assembled a thorough and comprehensive picture of how the …

Global Rate Pass Through: Impact Of The Global Savings Market On Home Prices In The Uk, Laxmi Namboodiri

Honors Theses

This paper examines how changes in the global savings and investment market impact housing prices and supply in the United Kingdom. I first constructed a global interest rate using principal component analysis. Then, using structural VARs, I estimate impulse response functions to study the dynamics of housing prices and supply in the UK with an impulse in the global interest rate. The model predicts that housing prices and supply will increase immediately and then decrease after a lag. The decrease is primarily driven by the years after the stock market crash as opposed to before.

Performance And Policy Indexes In Carbon Pricing Efficacy: A Cross-Country Analysis Of Policy Impact (2012-2020), Ke (Zoky) Zhou

Honors Theses

Climate change poses a significant threat to global ecosystems and human societies, driven largely by CO2 emissions from various economic activities. This macroeconomic cross-country study empirically assesses the effectiveness of carbon pricing in reducing CO2 emissions across three periods: 2012-2017, 2015-2019, and 2015-2020. Building on the foundational research by Best et al. (2020), the analysis extends to more recent data, capturing the evolving impacts of carbon pricing amid changing global economic and policy landscapes. A key advancement in this research is the creation and integration of two comprehensive indexes—a performance index and a policy index—constructed from 14 environmental performance or …

Monetary Policy Across The Urban Rural Divide, Grace Hillis

Honors Theses

This paper measures the effect of monetary policy on the consumption of Urban versus Rural Households. I utilize the Consumer Expenditures Survey, conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and St. Louis Federal Reserve Economic Data for information on important macroeconomic variables. My empirical strategy examines how total consumption, housing consumption, health, food, and transportation consumption are impacted by the federal funds rate for urban relative to rural households. My research provides evidence that when the Federal Reserve increases rates, the consumption of rural households falls more relative to urban households. This result is statistically significant when examining consumption related …

County-Level Unemployment Dynamics Following The Covid Recession: The Effects Of Ppp Loan Take Up, Preston Antes

Honors Theses

The COVID-19 pandemic caused a nationwide shutdown, dragging the US into a recession. To combat the effects of the pandemic on the economy, Congress created the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) with the focus of preserving jobs and providing liquidity to small businesses. PPP created low-interest, forgivable business loans with forgiveness tied to a few benchmarks, providing a de facto cash transfer to small businesses. Did PPP preserve jobs? When examining Mississippi, this paper shows that counties with high cyclical unemployment participated more intensely in the program. Furthermore, the research shows that as loan totals grew within a county, local labor …

Chinese Political Rhetoric And Ideology: Tension And Pretension, Israel Paredes

Honors Theses

This changing nature of the Chinese government’s ideology leads one to believe that its core beliefs are not dogmatic, despite the foundation for their ideology being rooted in specific societal and economic theories. Starting with Mao Zedong to modern day, the Chinese government officials will continue to support the original tenets (and, no doubt, future presidents’ additions to the tenets). However, the interpretation of their ideology over time is fluid and is used to support policies and actions during a political cycle. Chinese political leaders are unlikely to disagree with a past leaders, and will rather use their own interpretation …

Vietnam’S Gdp: Re-Assessing Growth Rate And Identifying An Alternative Indicator, My Linh D. Nguyen

Honors Theses

Since the economic reform known as Doi Moi (Renovation) in 1986, Vietnam has changed from one of the world’s poorest to a middle-income country in one generation (USAID, 2022). The country has consistently registered high and stable economic growth since the reform, averaging 6.3% from 1985 to 2021 (World Bank, 2022). High growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) is good news, but it has also raised questions that go both ways. On one side, there is much speculation that the government of Vietnam has manipulated economic statistics, compared to the case of China and India. As quoted in Kinh …

Esg Reporting And Its Effect On Financial Performance Of Oil, Gas, And Utility Companies In The United States, Logan Lam

Honors Theses

According to the Harvard Business Review article ESG Investing Isn’t Designed to Save the Plant (Pucker and King 2022), the term ESG investments – which stands for environmental, social, and governance investing – often confuses investors because it is unregulated. Additionally, the author continued to claim that the data is outdated and mostly unaudited. Even if data on these investments is available to investors, it can still be challenging for them to make decisions regarding ESG. Trusting compatibility and accuracy can be difficult considering that companies can choose how to produce or calculate their own ESG data. Another claim that …

An Analysis Of Demand-Pull Inflation In The United States Post-Pandemic, Isabella A. Moynihan

Honors Theses

The COVID-19 pandemic led to a global shutdown of the economy resulting from both demand and supply shocks. Also, the significant decline in output and employment in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic led to a fast reaction from the government in the form of large fiscal rescue packages. At the end of 2021, the acceleration of inflation, which had been dormant for more than four decades, became the main topic of macroeconomic debates. The debate has revolved around the influence of cost-push versus demand-pull causes of inflation. The dominant view in the United States has been that inflation resulted …

The Labor Share In The Post-1980 Economy: An Analysis Of The Contributing Factors, Mia Bellucci

Honors Theses

During the Neoliberal period, which roughly began in the early 1980s in the U.S., there was a substantial slowdown in the growth rate of real hourly compensation, while productivity had continued to grow. The last two decades of the Neoliberal period (2000 – 2020) also experienced somewhat of a substantial decline in the labor share. In recent decades, there has been a growing amount of literature attempting to explain the major factors that have contributed to these recent labor market developments. This study provides a means of investigating the changes in the labor share and its components (i.e., real hourly …

Is Monetary Policy Neutral? The Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy Transmission Across The Income Distribution, Cameron Dyer

Honors Theses

This paper analyzes the role of the interest rate channel of monetary policy on household consumption sensitivities across the income distribution. To study this, I build a heterogenous agent model where households experience interest rate shocks as a proxy for monetary policy in addition to income shocks. I find that the poorest quintile increases consumption by about 4.5% in response to a recessionary interest rate cut, with this effect weakening for each additional quintile. When interest rate shocks differ by income group, the poorest lose about 3.6% of consumption and monetary policy’s effect on aggregate consumption weakens. When the income …

The Leveling Spirit: Violence And Inequality In Postwar Iraq, Griffin Perrault

Honors Theses

The Iraq War (2003–2011) constitutes by some estimates one of the deadliest and most destructive conflicts of the 21st century (Hagopian et al., 2013). In addition to the disputed figures of excess violent civilian casualties––generally ranging from 180,000 to 210,000 deaths––the war has created one of the major refugee crises of modern times, with 1 in 25 Iraqis estimated to have been displaced from their homes by the 2003 invasion (Costs of War, 2021). While much of this violence has been wrought by American and Iraqi coalition troops, violence against civilians has also been perpetuated by insurgent groups and paramilitary …

The Predictive Power Of The Term Structure Under Unconventional Monetary Policies, Luying Yang

Honors Theses

Previous research has confirmed a positive relationship between the slope of the yield spread and future economic growth. Since the start of the Great Recession, a number of developed economies have hit the zero lower bound and adopted unconventional monetary policies such as large-scale bond/asset purchase programs and negative interest rate policies. This paper finds that the yield spread’s predictive power generally deteriorates after the central bank adopts its first bond purchase program. However, there is no general pattern of how these unconventional monetary policies impact the yield spread’s forecasting ability across countries.

The Effects Of The One-Child Policy On Household Financial Decisions, Sylvia M. Xu

Honors Theses

The Chinese One-Child Policy, enacted in 1979, was an attempt to decrease the population growth rate following a period of massive social and political confusion and uncertainty. While the policy was beneficial to curbing the population growth in China, it also introduced unintentional consequences, including sex imbalance, and other demographic differences. The goal of this paper is to examine the economic behavior and financial decisions of son-families and daughter-families across different provinces and regions of China, which have varying levels of sex imbalance, as a result of a cultural preference for sons. These financial decisions include the household saving rate, …

The Macroeconomic Effect Of Currency Union Dissolution: Evidence From The Narrative, Marcus Josefsson

Honors Theses

In the face of the growing importance of alternative monetary arrangements throughout the world, the economics literature contains contradictory explanations for the impact of currency union dissolution. Some argue that dissolving a union removes limitations to growth, while others contend that the ensuing uncertainty drives weaker macroeconomic performance. In this paper, I present empirical analysis of the macroeconomic effect of dissolving currency unions. I utilize a narrative approach to address asymmetries in the underlying motivations for different dissolutions, and find that the absence of economic concerns driving dissolution leads to improved growth in the post dissolution period. Further, evidence for …

Does Exchange Market React To Central Bank Governor Replacements: Evidence From A New Dataset Using Narrative Approach, Siyang Xu

Honors Theses

This paper contributes to the literature that analyzes the exchange market reaction to the event of a central bank governor replacement. In order to solve the endogeneity problem, we develop a narrative approach-based on reports from credible newspapers-that classifies central bank governor replacements by their nature and causes. Using this new dataset on central bank independence for 31 countries over the period 1967-2012, we decompose all replacements into endogenous and exogenous cases with respect to inflation and financial market performance. We find that such a distinction is critical in understanding the exchange market reactions. We show that i) endogenous replacements, …

Continuity Of Fdi: Determinants And Effects On Growth, Loredana Popescu

Honors Theses

The literature on foreign direct investment (FDI) provides evidence on the relation from FDI to growth in the presence of some absorptive qualities such as existing level of development, financial market depth, trade policies and human capital thresholds. The analysis of FDI inflows in the literature so far does not include an investigation of discontinuity, or of lack of steady positive flows. Discontinuities are expected to depend on development levels and risk factors in the host country as they proxy for attractiveness of the target to the foreign investor. This paper investigates the continuity of FDI with its determinants and …

Can Parallel Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?, John F. Roberts

Honors Theses

Commodity price uncertainty imposes large costs on society. On the macro level, it results in sudden and unexpected shifts in current account imbalances and real GDP volatility, while on the micro level, it leads to allocation inefficiencies. Accurate price forecasts have the potential to remove some of this uncertainty and allow for a more efficient distribution of resources, and thus, an increase in social welfare. Despite the obvious gains to be had from accurate commodity price forecasts, few models have been able to deliver these results. Chen, Rogoff and Rossi (2008) were the first to find a promising link between …

Cyclicality Of State Budgeting: A Political-Economy Analysis., Ian W. Cummins

Honors Theses

This paper disentangles the effect of political ideology and budget rules on fiscal cyclicality across the U.S. states. Using panel data from 1963 to 2006, liberal states are found to be significantly less procyclical than conservative ones. The impact of balanced budget constraints is contingent on the ideological orientation of the state in which they are imposed. Tight balanced budget rules are not binding on conservative states, but are binding on liberal ones. Where they are binding, budget rules mediate the link between voter preferences and policy outcomes skewing them toward greater procyclicality.

Stock Markets And Household Wealth: Can A Stock Market Crash Cause A Recession In The U.S. Economy?, Ishan Singh

Honors Theses

Stock market wealth effects on the level of consumption in the United States economy have been constantly debated; there is evidence for arguments for and against its prominence and its symmetry. This paper seeks to investigate the strength of its negative effect by creating models to analyze unexpected shocks to the Standard and Poor's 500 index. First, a transmission mechanism between the stock market and GDP is established through the use of second-order vector autoregressive models. Following which, theory from the life cycle model and adaptations of previous researchers' models are used to create a structural model. This paper finds …