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Articles 1 - 30 of 47
Full-Text Articles in Macroeconomics
Analysis Of Government Stimulus During Covid-19 And The Bank Distress Of 2023, Kara Hagler
Analysis Of Government Stimulus During Covid-19 And The Bank Distress Of 2023, Kara Hagler
CMC Senior Theses
Due to the hardships that small businesses were facing from the onset of COVID-19 in March 2020, the government created the Payment Protection Program (PPP). This program used banks as the initial lenders for small business loans to facilitate loans from the government to small businesses. In this article, I study how participation in the PPP lending program contributes to the Bank Distress of 2023 by using a bank-level quarterly panel data set from 2019-2023. Estimation of difference-in-difference specifications reveals banks that opted into the PPP program experienced an increase in held-to-maturity securities relative to non PPP banks. The mechanism …
Driven By Change: The Impact Of Macroeconomic Shifts And Covid-19 On New Vehicle Sales, Jackson Aldrich
Driven By Change: The Impact Of Macroeconomic Shifts And Covid-19 On New Vehicle Sales, Jackson Aldrich
CMC Senior Theses
This paper examines the impact of macroeconomic factors and the COVID-19 pandemic on new vehicle sales. In order to address these two topics, a two-pronged approach was used with separate regression models. The macroeconomic variables include monthly supply of new homes, CPI for urban public transportation, unemployment rate, disposable personal income, inflation expectation, consumer sentiment, average gas prices, and total vehicle miles traveled which were regressed on total vehicle sales from 1978-2022. The regression results confirmed and supported current literature and highlighted the importance of the housing market and unemployment rate on new vehicle sales. The COVID-19 pandemic model variables …
A Comparative Analysis Of 14 Central Banks’ Monetary Responses Before And After The Covid-19 Pandemic In Relation To Central Bank Independence, Emelle Stottele
A Comparative Analysis Of 14 Central Banks’ Monetary Responses Before And After The Covid-19 Pandemic In Relation To Central Bank Independence, Emelle Stottele
CMC Senior Theses
In theory, during periods of economic downturn, economic policy should follow a countercyclical pattern. In this light, following the recent COVID-19 pandemic, monetary policy is expected to be contractionary. However, prior research shows that the cyclical nature of monetary policy can vary significantly across different countries. Research also suggests that these monetary responses differ based on the level of independence a central bank has for decision-making from government influence. This thesis studies the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the monetary responses across a panel of 14 countries from January 2018 to August 2022, capturing the impacts of the pandemic. …
Did Demonetization Have A Bigger Impact On Ppis (Prepaid Payment Instruments) Or Mobile Banking In India?, Ansh Vora
CMC Senior Theses
On November 8, 2016, Narendra Modi, prime minister of India, tele-advertised the entire nation and announced that India's highest value banknotes, the 500 and 1000 rupee “Rs” notes would be demonetized and taken out of circulation, effective midnight. Modi stated that this is an effort to reduce the large economy of black money, transition India into a digital economy, abolish funding of terrorist groups and illicit circulation of counterfeit notes. In this study, I choose to analyze the impact of demonetization on two digital payment methods - Prepaid Payment Instruments, “PPI” and Mobile Banking. The data used in this study …
A Philosophical And Empirical Investigation Into Buddhist Economics, Hannah Doyle
A Philosophical And Empirical Investigation Into Buddhist Economics, Hannah Doyle
CMC Senior Theses
There is a growing body of literature on Buddhist economics from a philosophical perspective; however, no work to date has sought to empirically validate it as an effective economic theory at a global scale. In my paper, I draw on the long history of Buddhist metaphysics to construct an account of Buddhist ethics and then proceed to derive a set of Buddhist economic principles. I draw on the World Happiness Report’s methodology to quantitatively demonstrate the relationship between Buddhist economic principles and the psychological wellbeing of a country’s citizens, as measured through their own evaluation of their quality of life …
Global Trade Implications Of A Russia And Ukraine-Like Conflict Between China And Taiwan, Jay Morris
Global Trade Implications Of A Russia And Ukraine-Like Conflict Between China And Taiwan, Jay Morris
CMC Senior Theses
This paper examines the effects of global trade in general from a Russia-Ukraine-like conflict between China and Taiwan as well as the consequences to the worldwide semiconductor industry. A main component of these effects comes from two assumptions: trade between Taiwan and the rest of the world will cease when the conflict occurs and a group of geopolitically aligned and developed countries called the “Allies” will sanction China across a range of product categories. The main effect of the sanctions is the reduction in imports to China in key strategic goods that help in winning military battles and or promote …
Liquidity Outbreak: A 49 Country Analysis Of The Money Supply’S Effect On Stock Markets During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Dylan Porter
Liquidity Outbreak: A 49 Country Analysis Of The Money Supply’S Effect On Stock Markets During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Dylan Porter
CMC Senior Theses
This paper compares the effects of monthly money growth on monthly stock market performance in 49 countries around the world before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Countries are grouped in aggregate, by continent, and development status. OLS panel regressions show that lagged monetary growth variables are better monetary indicators of stock market performance than contemporaneous values. Variables that measure the pandemic’s progress (infections/deaths and government responses) are included alongside macro-economic variables but are seldom significant. Monetary growth had less correlation with the stock market during the pre-pandemic period (January 2018 - December 2020), suggesting that the uncertain economic conditions of …
The Federal Reserve’S Qe Practices Impact On Inflation: A Comparative Analysis Of The Gfc And Covid-Eras, Robert Driscoll
The Federal Reserve’S Qe Practices Impact On Inflation: A Comparative Analysis Of The Gfc And Covid-Eras, Robert Driscoll
CMC Senior Theses
This paper investigates and compares the effects of the Fed’s quantitative easing policies on US inflation during the Global Financial Crisis and the Covid-era up to February of 2022. As inflation continues to rise, a quantitative measurement of the Fed’s monetary policy response to recessions and its resulting effect on the price level is becoming increasingly relevant. Supporting the quantity monetary theory, I test the impact of the Fed’s increasing their total assets and securities on their balance sheet on CPI and core CPI. Using multiple time series regressions and a single lag component on the analyzed variables. The model …
Disembedded Liberalism: The Global Pressure On Democracy, Hallie Spear
Disembedded Liberalism: The Global Pressure On Democracy, Hallie Spear
CMC Senior Theses
The international political order is at a crossroads with divergent paths. Liberal democracy is once again threatened on the international stage. What's more troubling is that the most stable and influential democracies, the United States, those in Europe and India, seem to be vulnerable to the autocratic wave sweeping through the world. This thesis completes a critical analysis to understand the root causes of the recent disruption to democracy the world has observed. Focusing on three established, diverse, and populous democracies, this thesis investigates the economic conditions at play that made each nation vulnerable to populism. Neoliberal economic policies implemented …
Climate Trailblazer Or Corporate Giveaway: An Economic And Political Evaluation Of Cap-And-Trade In California, Benjamin Reicher
Climate Trailblazer Or Corporate Giveaway: An Economic And Political Evaluation Of Cap-And-Trade In California, Benjamin Reicher
Pomona Senior Theses
In this thesis, I conduct an economic and political analysis of California’s cap-and-trade program, the leading national (and international) example of a market-based strategy to reduce climate-warming greenhouse gas emissions. I evaluate the program on several economic and political measures of success, especially as contrasted with the performance of various regulatory policies that California also relies on to meet its emissions reduction targets. These regulations exemplify a command and control approach to emissions mitigation as opposed to a market-based approach, and indeed tend to be favored by grassroots activists who may be skeptical about market-friendly policies; my thesis seeks to …
Gambling Autonomy: The Impact Of Latin American Central Bank Independence On Risk Aversion Within Monetary Policy Implementation, Julia Duarte Schulman
Gambling Autonomy: The Impact Of Latin American Central Bank Independence On Risk Aversion Within Monetary Policy Implementation, Julia Duarte Schulman
CMC Senior Theses
This paper examines the effect of Latin American central bank independence (CBI) on risk-averse behaviors in monetary policy. Using a fixed effects panel regression, I document how multiple forms of monetary policy are influenced by different macroeconomic variables, conflicting policy targets and central bank independence benchmarks. The results show that increasing CBI has a positive impact on risk aversion, especially in policies targeting inflation and money supply. Additionally, the results show that interest rates and reserve requirements were especially susceptible to changes in independence, while the monetary base and volume of domestic credit were less influenced. Finally, as time and …
What Do We Know About The Recent Performance Of Indian Banks?, Laira Aggarwal
What Do We Know About The Recent Performance Of Indian Banks?, Laira Aggarwal
CMC Senior Theses
This paper examines the performance of Indian banks by studying the effects of recent reforms and macroeconomic events. Indian banks went through a period of reforms in the past twenty years. The impact of these reforms and major macroeconomic events has been examined using time-series analysis. Event studies offer additional perspective on the short-run effect of the events on different types of Indian banks. Although, the event dates are not all statistically significant in the time-series regressions, the demonetization of 2016 is significant in the event study analysis. Thus, while reforms and events have immediate impact on the performance of …
Why Not Mexico? Policy Recommendations For A Globally-Oriented Economic Strategy, Víctor Manuel Hernández-Rodríguez
Why Not Mexico? Policy Recommendations For A Globally-Oriented Economic Strategy, Víctor Manuel Hernández-Rodríguez
CMC Senior Theses
Mexico, one of the world’s largest economies and an increasingly relevant actor in international affairs, is at a crucial point in defining its future policy course. Given the uncertainty surrounding the global economy, as well as the political situation in Mexico, it is important to have a clear vision for policy going forward. This thesis offers a foundation for a national economic strategy with a long-term vision, upon which future administrations can build as appropriate to maximize on the country’s economic potential. The task is undertaken through a three-part approach. First, a thorough and analytical overview of the country’s economic …
The Role Of Conflict In Sub-Saharan Africa, Samy Lemos
The Role Of Conflict In Sub-Saharan Africa, Samy Lemos
CMC Senior Theses
Sub-Saharan Africa is the provider of many critical natural resources. With such resources, one would expect these countries to have thriving economies. Why is the opposite case true? To answer such a question, this paper examines a few critical causes that may justify the current economic situation these African countries are experiencing. Specifically, the paper observes the economic impact of civil war and terrorist conflict in sub-Saharan Africa from 1971 to 2016. To explore the changes in GDP per capita for all these years, this thesis sheds light on three independent variables: year of conflict, education level, and foreign direct …
The End Of The Three Percent Rule: How Structural Changes In The U.S. Economy Have Impacted Economic Growth, Maxwell J. Urman
The End Of The Three Percent Rule: How Structural Changes In The U.S. Economy Have Impacted Economic Growth, Maxwell J. Urman
CMC Senior Theses
Using data from government sources (FRED, BEA, BLS), the thesis explores the underlying reasons for declining U.S. economic growth. A long standing trend of annual 3% growth no longer seems to hold true for the economy. The paper summarizes current theory as to why the growth has slowed and finds new explanations by analyzing the various major industries which make up GDP. The results show that sectoral shifts in employment from high paying industries to low paying industries help to explain a significant portion of the decline in national growth rates. The decline in growth is primarily driven by about …
What Goes Up Must Come Down: The Relationship Between The Housing Market Boom And The Subsequent Economic Downturn: Evidence From The Msa Level, Bruce Dale Service
What Goes Up Must Come Down: The Relationship Between The Housing Market Boom And The Subsequent Economic Downturn: Evidence From The Msa Level, Bruce Dale Service
CMC Senior Theses
Using MSA level data, the paper shows, that geographic areas which experienced the largest housing bubble generally suffered a more serious subsequent economic downturn. More specifically, the paper establishes that MSAs with larger declines in housing permits had larger increases in unemployment. There also appears to be strong evidence of a correlation between the magnitude of a housing boom and the timing of the decline in housing permits. MSAs which experienced larger real housing inflation offered early indications of the subsequent Great Recession.
Degree Matters: The Impact Of A Leader’S Foreign Education On His Country’S Economic Development, Zhongyi Yu
Degree Matters: The Impact Of A Leader’S Foreign Education On His Country’S Economic Development, Zhongyi Yu
CMC Senior Theses
I analyze the correlation between a nation leader’s foreign education experience and their nation’s GDP growth and economic freedom in African, Asian, and South American countries. There is a statistically significant correlation between a leader’s foreign education and the country’s GDP growth rate, especially in Africa. Data also shows that a leader’s foreign education is positively correlated with his country’s economic freedom. Despite the fact that the regressions can only demonstrate correlation as opposed to causation relationships among variables, further analysis of the results concludes that a leader’s education and the country’s development are reciprocal. The findings of this paper …
Are Oil Prices Important To U.S. Manufacturers?, Austin Perez Schoff
Are Oil Prices Important To U.S. Manufacturers?, Austin Perez Schoff
CMC Senior Theses
Very little has been written about the effect that oil prices have on manufacturing output in the United States. This paper aims to shed light about the effect of oil prices, oil imports, and GDP on U.S. manufacturing output through a four-variable vector autoregression and explain the timing of these shocks through impulse response functions. Empirical results find that oil prices are significant in determining manufacturing output, but manufacturing output is also significant in determining oil prices.
The Political Impact Of Rising Trade Exposure: Evidence From 2000 - 2016 U.S. Presidential Elections, Xiaoyang Qian
The Political Impact Of Rising Trade Exposure: Evidence From 2000 - 2016 U.S. Presidential Elections, Xiaoyang Qian
CMC Senior Theses
In this paper we analyze the impact of global imports on regional labor markets, and how such impact translates to changes in voting patterns in the U.S. Presidential elections from 2000 to 2016. We find that imports from different U.S. trading partners influence voting patterns in different ways. In particular, we observe an anti-incumbent effect caused by import competition from OECD countries. Such an effect cannot be observed for imports from low-income countries. There is also evidence that suggests high exposure to import competition tends to drive voters toward the Democratic candidate, who typically proposes better social welfare programs and …
Why Ireland: How Bank Failure Was Their Key To Success, Nia R. Gillenwater
Why Ireland: How Bank Failure Was Their Key To Success, Nia R. Gillenwater
Claremont-UC Undergraduate Research Conference on the European Union
Despite Ireland’s status as the first EU country to receive a bailout, Ireland appears to be bouncing back extremely well from the ongoing financial crisis in Europe and the EU. Looking at recent Irish economic statistics it begs the question whether the government’s complete guarantee of all Irish debts was the best response. Ireland’s financial crisis seemed quite similar to America’s: for both the root causes are freely lending for real estate and property. The responses however, were very different. While America let Lehman Brothers fail and only provided a partial guarantee to its banks, Ireland provided a complete guarantee …
Why Are We Still Listening To This Dead British Guy: An Analysis Of Emergency Liquidity Assistance In Germany During The Sovereign Debt Crisis, Nia R. Gillenwater
Why Are We Still Listening To This Dead British Guy: An Analysis Of Emergency Liquidity Assistance In Germany During The Sovereign Debt Crisis, Nia R. Gillenwater
Scripps Senior Theses
Germany’s position of power within the European Union disguises how impacted the German economy was by the 2008 Financial Crisis and Europe’s subsequent Sovereign Debt Crisis. Two of Germany’s major banks-Commerzbank and Bayerische Landesbank- suffered major losses and required emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) to survive. Walter Bagehot wrote the theory underpinning lenders of last resort (LLRs) in 1873 but how has the development of systemically important banks affected the usefulness of Bagehot’s theory? This paper aims to explain why Germany is in need of updated LLR recommendations through an analysis of the ELA Germany at large, Commerzbank and Bayerische Landesbank …
A Critical Examination Of Oil Wealth Management Strategies And Their Effects On Economic Growth In The Gulf Cooperation Council Countries, Caroline J. Belmont
A Critical Examination Of Oil Wealth Management Strategies And Their Effects On Economic Growth In The Gulf Cooperation Council Countries, Caroline J. Belmont
CMC Senior Theses
Despite their natural resources, the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman) have failed to live up to their economic potential, primarily due to their dependence on a revenue source with volatile prices and political significance in an unstable region. This thesis argues that the best way to convert oil wealth into consistent long term growth is through diversification, both by investing in foreign assets and by growing domestic sectors that are independent from oil and gas prices. The research further investigates the primary tool these countries have used to …
Decrypting Bitcoin Prices And Adoption Rates Using Google Search, Varun Puri
Decrypting Bitcoin Prices And Adoption Rates Using Google Search, Varun Puri
CMC Senior Theses
In this paper, I analyze Bitcoin price formation and adoption rates at a global and national level. In determining Bitcoin prices, I consider contemporaneous and lagged values of traditional determinants of currencies, such as inflation and industrial production, and digital currency specific factors, primarily public interest. Using monthly time-series data across five years (2011 – 2016), I find that global public interest in Bitcoin, measured by Google searches for the keyword ‘Bitcoin,’ has a positive and significant impact on Bitcoin prices. I extend the analysis to a country level by employing a proxy for adoption rates, represented by the number …
Examining The Relationship Between Received Remittances And Education In Malawi, Kasvi Malik
Examining The Relationship Between Received Remittances And Education In Malawi, Kasvi Malik
CMC Senior Theses
This thesis examines the relationship between received remittances and education using random samples from panel survey data from households in rural Malawi collected between 2008 and 2010. Past research as well as that conducted in this paper point to the fact that remittances and education share an important correlation. The results of this study indicate that on a microeconomic level, remittances have a highly significant and positive impact on household education. Other remittance-related factors such as the distance from agent, the remittance amount, and the type of account held by an individual also have a significant impact on the highest …
Mergers & Abenomics: The Determinants Of M&A In Japan's New Economy, Ethan S. Hallberg
Mergers & Abenomics: The Determinants Of M&A In Japan's New Economy, Ethan S. Hallberg
CMC Senior Theses
This paper investigates the influence of various macroeconomic variables on Japan’s merger and acquisition (M&A) activity, both in terms of total deal value and total number of deals. Looking at monthly data from June 1997 to December 2013, I use econometric time-series analysis to find that: First, total deal value per month is not well explained by our macroeconomic variables, but about half of the variation in number of deals per month can be explained by our dataset. Second, the most important determinant in the total number of deals per month during our period is the level of national debt, …
Quantitative Easing's Effect On Shadow Banking: Have Federal Reserve Purchases Caused A Collateral Shortage In The Repurchase Agreement Market?, Amanda A. Schaible
Quantitative Easing's Effect On Shadow Banking: Have Federal Reserve Purchases Caused A Collateral Shortage In The Repurchase Agreement Market?, Amanda A. Schaible
Scripps Senior Theses
Since the start of the financial crisis in 2008, the Federal Reserve has been engaging in quantitative easing. Quantitative easing is a form of open market operation in which the Federal Reserve buys long-term U.S. government and other securities, versus traditional open market operations that occur through the short-term Treasury bill market. At the same time, the shadow bank system, which is a system of financial intermediaries that perform unregulated credit intermediation outside of traditional banks, has contracted significantly. Some argue that this contraction is due to a collateral crunch induced by quantitative easing in the shadow bank system—a crunch …
The Liberalization Of Shibor And The Economic Fundamentals Of House Price Growth In China, Michael J. Mavredakis
The Liberalization Of Shibor And The Economic Fundamentals Of House Price Growth In China, Michael J. Mavredakis
CMC Senior Theses
This paper uses data collected from the National Interbank Funding Center of China, the People’s Bank of China, the National Bureau of Statistics, and Bloomberg starting in October 2006 through 2013 to test the economic fundamental’s affecting the housing market in Shanghai, particularly interest rates. This study finds that the 6- month duration Shibor has a negative and significant correlation with house price growth in Shanghai when lagged 4 months. The analysis continues by examining other economic fundamentals affecting house price growth, finding growth in inflation, the money supply and Shanghai real estate investment to have significant, positive relationships with …
The Role Of Islamic Banking In Economic Growth, Katherine Johnson
The Role Of Islamic Banking In Economic Growth, Katherine Johnson
CMC Senior Theses
Islamic banking is currently one of the fastest growing segments of the financial market industry, operating in over 75 countries through 300 institutions. While past literature has established the development of financial institutions as a determinant of economic growth, research on the correlation of the diffusion of Islamic banking with economic growth is limited. This study seeks to add to the literature by empirically analyzing the economic growth determinative power of Islamic banks. Confirming past research, Muslim prevalence in a population is found to be the most significant determinant of the diffusion of Islamic banks. Using this exogenous instrument in …
The Impact Of Participatory Notes On The Indian Rupee Exchange Rate, Rohan Kothari
The Impact Of Participatory Notes On The Indian Rupee Exchange Rate, Rohan Kothari
CMC Senior Theses
Since 1992, India has grown as a global player in the finance world. In spite of its success, India has not been able to rid itself of potentially harmful practices. One such practice is the issuing of Participatory Notes (PN) to foreign investors, so that they can anonymously purchase securities or derivatives listed on the Indian Stock Exchanges. This instrument came into public view when it accounted for approximately 50% of all foreign portfolio assets in India. Since then, the laws regarding PNs have evolved to become a more transparent version of the old rules. Although PN levels are not …
How Many Barack Obamas Does It Take: An Analysis Of The Effect Of Charter Schools On Real Estate And Crime, Aananditaa Kakkar
How Many Barack Obamas Does It Take: An Analysis Of The Effect Of Charter Schools On Real Estate And Crime, Aananditaa Kakkar
CMC Senior Theses
This study looks at the relationship between charter school presence and neighborhood quality in Los Angeles. Using data from the Los Angeles Department of Education, Zillow Real Estate, and the Los Angeles Sheriff, this paper attempts to find whether changes in charter presence influence the price of surrounding real estate or the occurrence of serious and petty crimes. The results find that charter schools tend to be associated with a decrease in home sale prices. The results on crime imply that crime increases upon the opening of charter schools, however they are statistically insignificant.