Macroeconomics Commons^™

Constructing A Coincident Index Of Business Cycles Without Assuming A One-Factor Model, Roberto S. Mariano, Yasutomo Murasawa

Research Collection School Of Economics

The Stock-Watson coincident index and its subsequent extensions assume a static linear one-factor structure for the component indicators. Such assumption is restrictive in practice, however, with as few as four indicators. In fact, such assumption is unnecessary if one defines a coincident index as an estimate of latent monthly real GDP. This paper considers VAR and factor models for latent monthly real GDP and other coincident indicators, and estimates the models using the observable mixed-frequency series. For US data, Schwartz’s Bayesian information criterion selects a two-factor model. The smoothed estimate of latent monthly real GDP is the proposed index.

A Var Analysis Of Singapore's Monetary Transmission Mechanism, Hwee Kwan Chow

Research Collection School Of Economics

The Singapore economy has experienced greater business cycle fluctuations in recent years, being subject to recurrent shocks from the external environment. Given the extreme openness of the economy—Singapore’s export share of GDP is approximately 180%—it is not surprising that the main cause of the increase in economic volatility is a rise in the frequency and magnitude of exogenous shocks. These include the downswing in the global electronics industry in 1996–97, the Asian financial crisis in 1997–98, the burst of the information technology bubble in 2001, and the outbreak of the SARS respiratory disease in 2003. Such a close sequence of …

Keynote Address, Sanusi O. Joseph

Bullion

This is a keynote address delivered at the 5^th Annual Finance Correspondents and Business Editors Seminar held in Owerri, lmo State from 26^th – 28^th January, 2004. It is the fifth in the series of the seminar initiated by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), to enhance the understanding and analytical ability of Finance Correspondents and Business Editors on topical economic issues, particularly monetary and financial sector development. It presents an opportunity for them to appreciate and analyse the Bank's policies and operations better, as well as, facilitate improvement in reporting on those issues. It will help …

An Overview Of The Nigerian Financial System, Aderibigbe J. O.

Bullion

Financial systems, the world over, play fundamental roles in the development and growth of the economy. The effectiveness and efficiency in performing these roles, particularly the intermediation between the surplus and deficit units of the economy, depend largely on the level of development of the financial system. It is to ensure its soundness that the financial sector appears to be the most regulated and controlled by the government and its agencies. This paper discusses issues and strategies for enhancing the soundness and stability of the nation's financial system, the roles of the financial system in the promotion of economic growth …

The Role Of The Central Bank In The Nigeria Financial System, Onyido C. Ben

Bullion

The central bank is pivotal in the management of the national economy. lts role is not only to regulate and monitor the financial system, but also to ensure its development, prevent financial distress which could undermine confidence in the system as well as facilitate sustained growth. This paper presents an overview of the Nigerian financial system, the functions of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). It examines the Bank's monetary management, surveillance and promotional roles and the challenges for the CBN. The study concludes that, the enhanced operational autonomy of the CBN has provided a unique opportunity for the Bank …

The Impact Of The Operations Of The Non-Bank Financial Institutions On Financial Sector Stability, Bamisile A. Sesan

Bullion

The Banks and Other Financial institutions Act (BOFIA) defines an NBFI to mean "any individual, body, association or group of persons; whether corporate or unincorporated, other than the banks licenced under the Act which carries on the business of a discount house, finance company and money brokerage and whose principal object include factoring, project financing, equipment leasing, debt administration, fund management, private ledger services, investment management, local purchase order financing, export finance, project consultancy financial consultancy, pension fund management and such other business as the Bank may, from time to time, designate". This paper affords the opportunity to explain and …

Causes Of Bank Distress And Resolution Options, Donli J. G

Bullion

A meaningful analysis of causes of bank distress and the options for resolution would probably need to be preceded by a brief discussion of the role of banks in an economy. This paper examines the meaning of bank distress, it presents a detailed discussion of the main causes of bank distress as they relate to Nigeria in particular, it provides a review of the literature on resolution options as well as an enumeration of resolution options adopted to address bank distress in Nigeria. lt's has been observed in the paper that while the general causes of bank distress appear to …

The New Capital Accord: Challenges For The Central Bank Of Nigeria And Nigerian Banks., Imala O. Ignatius

Bullion

Capital occupies a vital position in the life of a bank, like any other business. It plays the role of a cushion for losses resulting from crystallisation of the various risks a business entity is exposed to. This paper summarises the 1988 Accord and its inadequacies. It introduces the new Accord, the need for it and its structure. It highlights the challenges to both operators and regulators, and It discusses efforts of the supervisory authorities to implement the Accord in Nigeria. The challenges highlighted in this paper are by no means exhaustive but it is believed that the attempt would …

The Role Of Deposit Insurance In Financial Sector Stability, Umoh N. Peter

Bullion

It might be necessary to start explaining the terms involved in the above topic. A Deposit insurance Scheme (DlS) is an arrangement whereby a designated agency (usually government-owned) guarantees deposits in insured financial institutions This paper discusses the guarantee function and financial sector stability, the supervisory function and financial sector stability, the liquidation function and financial sector stability and the other contributions of Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC). The study concluded that, "Financial Sector Stability: lssues and Challenges" is not only appropriate but quite timely given the rumours making the rounds about unfounded banking distress.

The Experience Of Banking Supervision In Financial Sector Surveillance., Imala O. I.

Bullion

A country's financial sector is the major channel through which funds are mobilized for borrowing and lending transactions. A poorly regulated or managed financial sector or one with insufficient capital for the risks it takes, can increase a country's vulnerability to financial crises. This paper highlights the importance of financial sector regulation and supervision, techniques of supervision, symptoms and causes of distress, measures put in place by the regulatory/supervisory authorities to guard against future systematic distress and the role of multilateral agencies. However, the study concluded that there is no doubt that good corporate governance is a major factor in …

Macroeconomics/Structural Policies And Financial Sector Stability: The Challenges, Nnanna O. J

Bullion

The financial system plays an important role in the process of economic growth and development of a country. A financial system consists of various institutions, markets, instruments and operators that interact within an economy to provide financial services. It plays the crucial roles of lubricating the payment mechanism, resource mobilisation and credit allocation. The Nigerian financial sector comprises the regulatory/supervisory authorities, deposit money banks, and other nonbank financial institutions. The objective of this paper is to examine the effect of macroeconomic/ structural policies on the financial sector, as well as the challenges of maintaining financial sector stability in Nigeria. The …

Institutional Framework For The Regulation And Supervision Of The Financial Sector, Mordi N. Charles

Bullion

Since the 1980s, there has been international consensus on the issue of adequate regulation and supervision of the financial sector (and, in particular, banking institutions) and this issue have featured prominently in many international fora where discussions have centred on the operations/health of the financial sector, whether in developed or developing countries. This paper focusses attention on the institutional framework for the regulation and supervision of the financial sector in Nigeria. It attempts to identify the various institutions that make up the financial sector and articulates how they are regulated and supervised and who has responsibility for what, so as …

Internationalisation Of Financial Services: Challenges For Financial Sector Stability In Nigeria., Adeola Ade

Bullion

Internationalisation or Globalisation refers to the increasing integration of "economics around the world, particularly through trade and financial flows. lt is the actual movement, the capacity to move and the potential movement across nations of trade, , investment, technology, finance and labour. lt's also involves the effects of these I forces and the consequent liberalization I of the market. This paper focuses on internationalisation as it relates to the financial sector in Nigeria and its most common manifestation, which is liberalization. It aims to identify ways in which we can benefit from this process while remaining realistic about its potential …

Review Of Northern Naval Superiority And The Economics Of The American Civil War By David G. Surdam, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel

Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Growth Theory Reading, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (1998, September 24). Module on the foundations of growth theory [Syllabus]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (1994, March 7). Net interest in dynamic macromodels [Handwritten notes]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (n.d.). Lutz theories of int. [Handwritten notes]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (1987, June 4). Stock mkt & the firm [Handwritten notes]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Kregel, J. A. (1980). Economic dynamics and the theory of steady growth: An historical essay on Harrod’s “knife-edge”. History of Political Economy, 12(1). Publisher details not identified.

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (2004, July 1). Classical accumulation function [Typed …

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Inflation Classical Marx Growth + Inflation, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes.

• Shaikh, A. M., Maniatis, T., & Petralias, N. (1999). Explaining inflation and unemployment: An alternative to neoliberal economic theory. In A. Vlachou (Ed.), Contemporary economic theory: Radical critiques of neoliberalism (pp. 89–112). London, England: Palgrave Macmillan.

• Gillman, M., Harris, M. N., & Mátyás, L. (2004). Inflation and growth: Explaining a negative effect. Empirical Economics, 29(1), 149–167.

• Earley, J. S. (1981). What caused worldwide inflation: Excess liquidity, excessive credit, or both? Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 117(2), 213–243.

• Ramamurthy, B. (2003, September). Inflation, money supply, and budget deficit: Theory and an empirical exercise [Unpublished course …

Inflation Nairu, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes.

• Galbraith, J. K. (2004, July/August). Fed ache: A review of A term at the Fed: An insider’s view: The people and policies of the world’s most powerful institution, by L. H. Meyer. The Washington Monthly, 36(7–8), 56–59.

• Espinosa-Vega, M. A., & Russell, S. (1997). History and theory of the NAIRU: A critical review. Economic Review (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta), 82(2), 4–25.

Circuit Theory + Paradox Of Profit, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (2004, March 17). Reproduction in Marx and circuitist tradition [Handwritten notes addressed to Gennaro Zezza]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (2004, March 17). More on circuitists and bank credit [Letter to Gennaro Zezza, including embedded email from Zezza]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (2004, March 12). Comments on circuitist models [Comments addressed to Gennaro Zezza]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Zezza, G. (n.d.). Some simple, consistent models of the monetary circuit [Unpublished paper]. Unpublished manuscript.

Local Initiatives And Imf Policies In Quito, Ecuador, Dionissi Aliprantis

University Avenue Undergraduate Journal of Economics

If we are to define development as an increase in the freedoms people enjoy, then we may move beyond structural adjustments and foreign investment as means to create wealth in Ecuador and Latin America. Although not conclusively documented one way or the other [13], microlending is a promising path towards development from this perspective. At the very least, microlending offers hope to a segment of the population that would otherwise be disenfranchised. In Quito, Ecuador, microlending programs are creating wealth and expanding freedoms in a manner consistent with capitalism, while a good deal of IMF policies extract wealth from the …

Classical Accumulation Analysis, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Classical accumulation analysis [Title page]. (1987, August).

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Classical model [Handwritten notes]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (1988, February 23). Slow adjustment with limit cycle [Handwritten notes]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (1988, February 28). Shape of cost curves and profit margin [Handwritten notes]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A., & Milberg, W. (2000, Spring). Lectures on growth theory for Economics 105 [Course lectures]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (2004, May 18). Simple dynamic Keynesian model [Handwritten notes]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (2003, October 18). RAL and FROP connection [Handwritten notes]. Unpublished manuscript. …

Dynamics Of Growth With Endogenous Savings, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Dynamics of growth with endogenous savings [Folder]. Includes “Pollin’s point.”

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (2003, November 21). Firm’s budget constraint [Handwritten notes].

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (2003, November 19). The problem of SR equil in a growing eco [Handwritten notes].

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (2003, November 21). Household & business savings rates [Handwritten notes].

• Shaikh, A. (2003, December). Business savings and the business cycle [Typed graphs].

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (2004, January 16). Notes on private expenditure, income, and the Ruggles and Godley hypotheses [Handwritten notes].

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (n.d.). The …

Stock Market Talk, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (2004, January 1). Keynes’ own rates of interest citing Panico (1988) [Handwritten notes]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (n.d.). U.S.: Relative gold price of producer goods (WPI/gold price) [Graph]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (n.d.). Real ratio [Graph with note citing Mankiw]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Definition of bond. (2004, October 17). Printout from WordIQ. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (1997, August 25). Predicting stock prices [Handwritten notes]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (n.d.). Rates of return: Stock market & corporate business [Graphs]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (n.d.). Real profits [Graph]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, …

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Production, Prices, And Profits, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (2004). Production, prices and profit (Unpublished manuscript).
• Shaikh, A. (2004). Wageprices (Unpublished manuscript).
• Shaikh, A. (2004). Foreign profits (Unpublished manuscript).

Two Routes To Effective Demand Comment On Kregel, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Garegnani, P.. (2024). Two routes to effective demand: comment on Kregel. In Capital Theory, the Surplus Approach, and Effective Demand: An Alternative Framework for the Analysis of Value, Distribution and Output Levels (pp. 435-444). Cham: Springer International Publishing.

• Harcourt, G. C. (n.d.). Keynes’s college bursar view of investment: Comment on Kregel [Unpublished manuscript].

Modern Macro, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Taylor, J. B. (2000). Teaching modern macroeconomics at the principles level. The American Economic Review, 90(2), 90–94. American Economic Association (22-28_Mode... pp. 2, 7).
• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Notes on Alvaro Cencini and macro school models (Handwritten notes) (22-28_Mode... p. 8).
• De Vroey, M., & Hoover, K. D. (2004). Introduction: Seven decades of the IS-LM model. History of Political Economy, 36(Suppl. 1), 1–11. Duke University Press (22-28_Mode... pp. 9-10).
• Cencini, A. (n.d.). Neoclassical, new classical and new business cycle economics: A critical survey (Unpublished manuscript) (22-28_Mode... p. 21).

Forecasting The Global Electronics Cycle With Leading Indicators: A Var Approach, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy

Research Collection School Of Economics

Developments in the global electronics industry are typically monitored by tracking indicators that span a whole spectrum of activities in the sector. However, these indicators invariably give mixed signals at each point in time, thereby hampering attempts at prediction. In this paper, we propose a unified framework for forecasting the global electronics cycle by constructing a VAR model that captures the economic interactions between putative leading indicators representing expectations, orders, inventories and prices. The ability of the indicators to presage world semiconductor sales is first examined by Granger causality tests. Subsequently, an impulse response analysis confirms the leading qualities of …

The Structuralist Perspective On Real Exchange Rate, Share Price Level And Employment Path: What Room Is Left For Money?, Edmund S. Phelps, Hian Teck Hoon, Gylfi Zoega

Research Collection School Of Economics

The current sluggish performance of the US economy follows one of the more remarkable booms in modern history. The late 1990s was a period of simultaneous output and productivity growth,1 low unemployment and stable inflation, culminating in an unemployment rate of only 3.9% in the fourth quarter of the year 2000. The absence of rising inflation during this period came as a surprise to many since the level of the natural rate of unemployment was commonly estimated to be in the range of 5-6% by the mid 1990s. The non-inflationary boom, however, reminds one of another episode where non-monetary forces …