Macroeconomics Commons^™

A Multivariate Analysis Of The Causal Flow Between Renewable Energy Consumption And Gdp In Tunisia, Maamar Sebri, Ousama Ben Salha

Maamar Sebri

No abstract provided.

Benchmarking Structural Transformation Across The World, Era Dabla-Norris, Alun H. Thomas, Rodrigo Garcia-Verdu, Yingyuan Chen

Rodrigo Garcia-Verdu

Presentation given at the IMF's Jobs and Growth Seminar on December 13, 2013, based on the IMF Working Paper No. 13/176 with the same name

Subsidizing Non-Polluting Goods Vs. Taxing Polluting Goods For Pollution Reduction, Robert S. Main

Scholarship and Professional Work - Business

Pigovian taxes on polluters are politically unpopular, but subsidies for non-polluting sources are politically attractive. This paper presents a linear demand and supply model and numerical example to explore the trade-offs between taxing polluting sources of a good versus subsidizing non-polluting sources of the same good. While the model (along with the associated numerical example) shows the optimality of Pigovian taxes, it also shows how much welfare is reduced if subsidies for nonpolluters are employed instead. Further, it shows the optimal tax, given any level of subsidy and the optimal subsidy, given any level of tax.

Minimum Investment Requirement, Financial Integration And Economic (In)Stability: A Refinement To Matsuyama (2004), Haiping Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This note proposes a simple, more precise, necessary condition for symmetry breaking in Matsuyama (Financial Market Globalization, Symmetry-Breaking, and Endogenous Inequality of Nations, Econometrica, 2004 ), i.e., the positive interest rate response to income changes, which essentially arises from the assumptions of financial frictions and minimum investment size requirement of individual projects. This condition also holds under the more general settings. Thus, this note o ers an empirically testable hypothesis, i.e., Matsuyama's symmetry breaking is more likely, if the interest rate response to income changes is positive and sufficiently large.

Deposit Insurance And Private Capital Inflows: Further Evidence, John Thornton, Yener Altunbaş

John Thornton

We use a simple differences-in-differences technique to exam- ine whether adopting explicit deposit insurance impacts on the scale of private capital inflows to developing economies. We present evidence suggesting that these inflows improved more in countries that adopted deposit insurance than in countries that did not adopt it.

Some New Evidence On The Determinants Of Money Demand In Developing Countries – A Case Study Of Tunisia, Ousama Ben Salha, Zied Jaidi

Ousama Ben Salha

The present paper aims at examining the money demand function in Tunisia during the period 1981-2011. Unlike previous conventional money demand studies, the major components of real income are considered in this paper. Using the ARDL bounds testing approach, results reveal evidence of cointegration between broad money demand and its determinants, namely final consumption expenditure, expenditure on investment goods, export expenditure and interest rate. In the long-run, final consumption expenditure represents the major money demand determinant. This finding is robust to a variety of alternative money demand specifications and estimation methods. The empirical investigation suggests also the stability of the …

Crecimiento Económico. Entre La Falacia Del Cristal Roto Y La Eficiencia De Largo Plazo, Francisco Carlos Ruiz Diaz

Francisco Carlos Ruiz Diaz

La producción de bienes y servicios en el Paraguay creció a un promedio de 4.5% en los últimos años, cifra auspiciosa que permite suponer que el país ha logrado encaminar su economía hacia el desarrollo; pero también surgen preguntas como la siguiente: ¿Por qué el país sigue siendo pobre a pesar de haber crecido mucho? El objetivo del presente artículo es ensayar una respuesta a esa pregunta. Para dejar de ser pobres no solo basta con crecer unos cuantos años. Hay que crecer de manera continua. Es crucial entender la diferencia entre crecer a tasas altas por “unos cuantos años” …

The Economic Situation In The Transition Economies, Robert C. Shelburne

Robert C. Shelburne

Presentation to the Project Link/United Nations group of experts on the world economy regarding the economic outlook for the transition economies of the CIS and south-east Europe for 2014.

Detecting Bubbles In Hong Kong Residential Property Market, Matthew S. Yiu, Jun Yu, Lu Jin

Research Collection School Of Economics

This study uses a newly developed bubble detection method (Phillips, Shi, and Yu, 2011) to identify real estate bubbles in the Hong Kong residential property market. Our empirical results reveal several positive bubbles in the Hong Kong residential property market, including one in 1995, a stronger one in 1997, yet another one in 2004, and a more recent one in 2008. In addition, the method identifies two negative bubbles in the data, one in 2000 and the other one in 2001. These empirical results continue to be valid for the mass segment and the luxury segment. However, this method has …

Economics Of Iran And Israel: Comparative Examination, Mohammad Reza Farzanegan

Prof. Dr. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan

No abstract provided.

Un Repaso. Desde La Mano Invisible A La Resurrección De Keynes, Francisco Carlos Ruiz Diaz

Francisco Carlos Ruiz Diaz

La revolución industrial capitalista y la consolidación de la economía liberal, cambiaron el curso de la historia. Hoy por hoy, el desarrollo de la tecnología y la capacidad de la economía para interpretar estos avances han desplazado a la filosofía como fuente de transformación y cambio del sistema mundial. En las relaciones internacionales, por ejemplo, las doctrinas westfalianas de seguridad y soberanía han sido debilitadas por la globalización y la nterdependencia económica. En el campo social, los problemas de la pobreza, de la distribución de ingreso y de la falta de acceso a las oportunidades, son comprensibles a la luz …

Essays On Skilled Workers And Economic Development, Dozie Okoye

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

This thesis consists of three chapters on skilled workers and the roles they play in economic development. In the first chapter, I use an overlapping generations model of education choice and skilled migration to study conditions under which a low-skill economy can grow its skilled labor force in the presence of skilled emigration. This occurs when skill premiums are low, and there are individuals in the economy who can afford an education. The model is calibrated to data on 23 low and middle-income countries. For 22 of the 23 countries, any increase in the rate of skilled emigration leads to …

Estímulos Económicos, Jose Luis Sardon

Jose Luis Sardon

Enfriamiento de la economía no debe ser coartada para expandir el gasto público y la oferta de crédito.

Do Major League Baseball Hitters Engage In Opportunistic Behavior?, Heather M. O'Neill

Business and Economics Faculty Publications

This study focuses on 256 Major League Baseball free agent hitters playing under the 2006–2011 collective bargaining agreement to determine whether players engage in opportunistic behavior in their contract year, i.e., the last year of their current guaranteed contracts. Past studies of professional baseball yield conflicting results depending on the econometric technique applied and choice of performance measure. When testing whether players’ offensive performances increase during their contract year, the omitted variable bias associated with OLS and pooled OLS estimation leads to contrary results compared to fixed effects modeling. Fixed effects regression results suggest players increase their offensive performance subject …

Macroeconomic And Political Determinants Of Foreign Direct Investment In The Middle East, Robin Barnaby Calver

Dissertations and Theses

This study argues that governments with sustained GDP growth, open markets, low country risk, high levels and low standard deviation of government performance, and few or no occurrences of war, will see larger levels of foreign direct investment (FDI) over time. Scholarship on the determinants of FDI variously argues the influence of GDP growth, the openness of a country's economy, a government's level of political capacity, the level of country risk, and the negative effects of inter-, intra- and extrastate conflict. These studies on the various effects on FDI, while providing insightful and substantial statistical results, fail to capture the …

Study Of Economic Development Of Pakistan Through Stock Market: Causal Relationship Of Stock Prices And Macroeconomic Indicators, Rizwan Raheem Ahmed, Yaseen Ahmed Meenai, Fazal Hussain

Business Review

The purpose of the research is to examine the causal relationship between stock prices and the variables representing the real sector of the economy for example real GDP, and real investment, in Pakistan. In this study, annual data is used (quarter-wise) from December 1980 to June 2007 and the correlation analysis has been applied, to investigate the relationship. For better understanding of the Market’s Behavior, data has been grouped in to Liberalization periods; Preliberalization and Post-Liberalization. The stock market in Pakistan provides an average quarterly return of 2.86%.The average annual growths in real variables are just lower than 1% for …

Policy Responses In An Unstable Globalized Economy: Multi-Stressed Low-Earning Families In Singapore, Irene Y. H. Ng, Kong Weng Ho

Research Collection School Of Economics

The Singapore government responded swiftly to the 2008 global recession, doling out a range of policies in aid of all levels of wage earners. This paper explores the impacts of economic trends and government policies on low-wage earners. Using a theoretical model and empirical data from a pilot study of recipients of a government Work Support Program, it demonstrates the effects of socioeconomic factors on multi-stressed low-earning families. It discusses the adequacy of current policies in addressing the multiple stressors experienced by low-wage earners.

Governance & Sustainability: Does Democracy Beggar Thy Future?, Nathanael D. Peach

Faculty Publications - College of Business

Findings:

An increase in political stability:

• Higher levels of natural resource depletion
• Higher levels of adjusted net savings (ANS) i.e. contributes positively to sustainable growth

Increase in democracy:

• Lower levels of natural resource depletion
• Impact on sustainability is conditional on the economic and political context

Cost Consequences To The Economy And Finance, Ahmed Khalid

Ahmed Khalid

Extract: The global financial crisis (GFC) led to a high price being paid to stabilize the economies and to serious consequences for some 60 national economies.

Risk And Reward - Is It All In Our Heads? A Short History Of Neuroeconomics, Renato Martins Alas, Kuldeep Kumar, M Nabin, Sukanto Bhattacharya

Kuldeep Kumar

This is a mini review on the recent developments in the intriguing field of neuroeconomics that falls within the overlap between a number of contributing disciplines in the social and natural science – economics, psychology, neuroscience and medical imaging being the major ones. We start by providing a brief background of neoclassical approaches to studying decision-making and work our way through the development of the field with increasing inputs from the behavioural sciences till the current point when the extra-economic inputs to the study of economic decision-making are no longer coming only from the cognitive psychologists but also from the …

Exito Económico Y Volatilidad ¿Existen Los Almuerzos Gratis?, Francisco Carlos Ruiz Diaz

Francisco Carlos Ruiz Diaz

El crecimiento sostenido es factible, pero debe sustentarse en el sacrificio social (ahorro para promover la acumulación de capital físico, humano e innovaciones). No existen los milagros, ni los almuerzos gratis. Para crecer sostenidamente se debe transpirar. Paraguay viene experimentando algunos años en que el PIB crece a tasas elevadas. Esto es porque el país ha comenzado a producir, a escala intensiva, bienes con fuerte demanda mundial y precios elevados. Estos productos son de origen agropecuarios y la venta al extranjero se da en estado natural o con escaso valor agregado. Este hecho transformó la dinámica productiva del país dado …

Structural Change And Real Output Growth In Nigeria: A Cointegration Analysis, P. D. Golit

Economic and Financial Review

The study employed the Johansen (1988) and the Johansen and Juselius (1990) multivariate maximum likelihood method within a Vector Autoregressive framework to explore the impact of structural reforms on the level of real output in Nigeria. We fit the equation separately for two sub-samples, the pre-reform and the market-reform periods, to enable comparisons of the outcomes under alternative policy regimes. We further estimate the model using data that covered the entire sample period to evaluate the total effects and include a dummy variable to capture the impact of the policy shift. The Johansen cointegration test confirms the existence of long-run …

Transition To Full-Fledged Inflation Targeting: A Proposed Programme For Implementation By The Central Bank Of Nigeria, Michael O. Ojo

CBN Occasional Papers

This paper attempts to provide an input into addressing these issues, especially as regards resolving the technical, administrative and practical problems for a transition to inflation targeting as a framework for monetary policy in Nigeria. Specifically, the main purpose of this paper is to outline proposals that would permit the CBN transit successfully to full-fledged inflation targeting (FFIT) for its monetary policy operations. Following the introduction (Section 1), the paper is organized as follows: Section 2 examines the conceptual framework, focusing on the essential elements and modalities of different monetary policy frameworks. Section 3 contains an overview of the experiences …

An Analysis Of The Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism And The Real Economy In Nigeria, Eddy C. Ndekwu

CBN Occasional Papers

The study is an empirical analysis which seeks to explain the monetary policy transmission mechanism to the real economy in Nigeria. It examines the process by which the interest rate policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria actually affects the structure of interest rates, credit, aggregate demand and output production and, hence, changes in inflation rate. In the analysis, we review the paradigm of the channels of monetary policy transmission mechanism by studying over two and-half dozen cases of empirical studies in the economic literature. By applying vector auto-regression (VAR) with dynamic logarithmic form and the ordinary least squares (OLS) …

The Disparate Neighborhood Impacts Of The Great Recession: Evidence From Chicago, Sonya Williams, George C. Galster, Nandita Verma

Urban Studies and Planning Faculty Research Publications

We advance scholarship about how macroeconomic forces differentially manifest themselves across local spaces by developing a holistic conceptual framework and empirical analyses involving multilevel change modeling. Unlike prior work, we examine differential rates of change in neighborhood indicators. We illustrate our approach with Chicago data measuring the crime, housing, and economic domains of neighborhood quality- of-life over the 2000-2009 period. We find that the local dynamic manifestations of macroeconomic cycles were far more nuanced than have been previously observed. Neighborhood indicators moved along distinct trajectories, sometimes but not necessarily tracking each other or the overall business cycle, and they changed …

Cost-Effective Estimation Of The Population Mean Using Prediction Estimators, Tomoki Fujii, Roy Van Der Weide

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper considers the prediction estimator as an efficient estimator for the population mean. The study may be viewed as an earlier study that proved that the prediction estimator based on the iteratively weighted least squares estimator outperforms the sample mean. The analysis finds that a certain moment condition must hold in general for the prediction estimator based on a Generalized-Method-of-Moment estimator to be at least as efficient as the sample mean. In an application to cost-effective double sampling, the authors show how prediction estimators may be adopted to maximize statistical precision (minimize financial costs) under a budget constraint (statistical …

Inflation Targeting And Growth: The Role Of The Tradable Sector, Luis Monroy Gómez Franco

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper provides an analytical explanation to the empirical association between monetary policy conducted according to the inflation targeting (IT) framework and the appreciation of the exchange rate, relating it to the literature on the effects of the exchange rate on growth. A two sector small open economy model is developed in which the behavior of the non tradable inflation and the nominal exchange rate are analyzed. The results indicate that the response to inflation variance under the IT regime causes the appreciation trend. Since this trend is not reversed immediately, increasing returns in the tradable sector affect capital accumulation.

Corporate Humanitarian Partnerships, Rebecca C. Keyes

Chancellor’s Honors Program Projects

No abstract provided.

Can Neoclassical Trade Theory Explain Congressional Voting?, John Dellipriscoli

Master's Theses

The neoclassical trade model has notoriously been unable to empirically predict trade flows throughout the world, however there has been a notion that the same theories and predictions could also be applied to democratic voting on free trade legislation. Using roll-call votes on three 2011 United States bilateral trade agreements with Colombia, Panama, and South Korea, respectively, a simple empirical model based on the neoclassical concepts, specifically the Heckscher-Ohlin and Stolper-Samuelson corollary theorems, is outlined. After an analysis using a logit estimation method, it is revealed that there is conflicting evidence whether the voting on the 2011 free trade agreements …

Durable Goods, Financial Frictions, And Business Cycles In Emerging Economies, Fernando Álvarez-Parra, Luis Brandao Marques, Manuel Toledo

Manuel E Toledo

Business cycles in emerging economies display very volatile consumption and strongly countercyclical trade balance. We show that aggregate consumption in these economies is not more volatile than output once durables are accounted for. Then, we present and estimate a real business cycles model for a small open economy that accounts for this empirical observation. Our results show that the role of permanent shocks to aggregate productivity in explaining cyclical fluctuations in emerging economies is considerably lower than previously documented. Moreover, we find that financial frictions are crucial to explain some key business cycle properties of these economies.