Macroeconomics Commons^™

Central Bank Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December, 2009, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Annual Report and Statement of Accounts for the Year Ended 31st December, 2009 revealed that the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 6.7% YoY, compared to 6.0% in the previous year. This growth was driven by the non-oil sector, with the non-oil GDP growth rate of 8.3%. Within the non-oil sector, the agricultural sub-sector grew by 6.2%, while the whole-sector and retail sectors recorded growth rates of 11.5 and 10.5 per cent, respectively. The robust output recorded during the previous three years was driven by the government's optimism, which reflected in the oil …

Analyzing And Forecasting Business Cycles In A Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Factor Model For Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy

Research Collection School Of Economics

A dynamic factor model is applied to a large panel dataset of Singapore’s macroeconomic variables and global economic indicators with the initial objective of analysing business cycles in a small open economy. The empirical results suggest that four common factors – which can broadly be interpreted as world, regional, electronics and domestic economic cycles – capture a large proportion of the co-variation in the quarterly time series. The estimated factor model also explains well the observed fluctuations in real economic activity and price inflation, leading us to use it in forecasting Singapore’s business cycles. We find that the forecasts generated …

Monetary Lessons From The Not-So-Great Depression, A Round-Robin Essay Debate With Scott Sumner, James Hamilton, And George Selgin, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel

Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Review Of Good Money: Birmingham Button Makers, The Royal Mint, And The Beginnings Of Modern Coinage, 1775-1821 By George Selgin, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel

Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Why Default On U.S. Treasuries Is Likely, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel

Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Asian Currency Baskets: An Answer In Search Of A Question?, Charles Adams, Hwee Kwan Chow

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper considers how a regional currency basket and the associated divergence indicators could be used in official surveillance. Recently, proponents of Asian currency baskets have referred to the role the ECU played in constructing exchange rate divergence indicators in Europe as evidence of the intrinsic usefulness of currency baskets for exchange rate monitoring. We show in this paper a number of problems with the use of regional currency-basket based divergence indicators. First, at a technical level, such indicators involve tracking regional exchange rates against a moving currency basket and can obscure underlying movements in bilateral exchange rates. Second, currency …

Can A Representative-Agent Model Represent A Heterogeneous-Agent Economy, Sungbae An, Yongsung Chang, Sun-Bin Kim

Research Collection School Of Economics

Accounting for observed fluctuations in aggregate employment, consumption, and real wage using the optimality conditions of a representative household requires preferences that are incompatible with economic priors. In order to reconcile theory with data, we construct a model with heterogeneous agents whose decisions are difficult to aggregate because of incomplete capital markets and the indivisible nature of labor supply. If we were to explain the model-generated aggregate time series using decisions of a stand-in household, such a household must have a nonconcave or unstable utility as is often found with the aggregate US data.

Determinants Of Capital Flows In Nigeria And Challenges For Macroeconomic Stability, A. Englama, N. C. Oputa, G. K. Sanni, M. U. Yakub, O. Adesanya, Z. Sanni

Economic and Financial Review

Capital flows into developing countries in the 1960s through the 1980s were mainly in the form of overseas development assistant (ODS) to governments as well as private capital through domestic multinational bank. Nigeria, like unit developing countries, is characterized by a low' level of domestic savings and in order to attain a desirable level of investment that would guarantee sustainable development, the economy needs some foreign sayings to bridge the savings investment gap. These savings come in the form of 'new money’ or capital inflows which are expected to provide financial capital for economic activities. Foreign participation is directed associated …

Does Unemployment Decrease Cancer Mortality?, Benjamin Torres Galick

Economics Honors Projects

Recent research indicates that healthier lifestyles during recessions decrease the most common U.S. mortalities, but not cancer. However, they combine specific cancer mortalities with different progressions into one, possibly obscuring cancer’s link to unemployment. This paper estimates a fixed-effects regression model on unemployment and the nine most prevalent cancers between 1988 and 2002 using state-level panel data. Five cancers and total cancer are procyclical, and suggest that unemployment affects both incidence and gestation for some cancers. Consistent with the medical literature, this paper contradicts previous economic research and suggests that behavioral factors significantly impact cancer mortality.

Will We Be Stimulated? Economists Sound Off On Obama’S Stimulus Package Reason, Nick Gillesie, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel, Meg Mcardle

Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Estimating The Macroeconomic Consequence Of 9/11, S. Brock Blomberg, Gregory Hess

CMC Faculty Publications and Research

We perform an empirical investigation to estimate the macroeconomic cost of September 11 attacks on the United States economy. We estimate the impact of the attacks to be approximately a 0.50 percentage point decrease in GDP growth or $60 billion. Our upper bound estimate of the impact of September 11 is approximately twice that or $125 billion.

A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis Of International Reserves, Yin-Wong Cheung, Hiro Ito

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

Using data from more than 100 economies for the period of 1975 to 2005, we conduct an extensive empirical analysis of the determinants of international reserve holdings. Four groups of determinants, namely, traditional macro variables, financial variables, institutional variables, and dummy variables that control for individual economies’ characteristics are considered. We find that the relationship between international reserves and their determinants is significantly different between developed and developing economies and is not stable over time. The estimation results indicate that, especially during the recent period, a developed economy tends to hold a lower level of international reserves than a developing …

Civil War Finance: Lessons For Today, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel

Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Beyond The Imf, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles

In November 2008, Pakistan entered into a stand by arrangement with the IMF to support the country’s stabilization program and fill in the external financing gap. Pakistan has successfully drawn down the first two tranches of this loan. Most of the stabilization indicators are showing improvement and if the present efforts to maintain the fiscal discipline, curtail borrowings from the State Bank of Pakistan and build up foreign exchange reserves remain intact it is likely that IMF will be able to complete the forthcoming reviews successfully and the agreement should reach an orderly termination point by June 2010. While the …

Was Money Really Easy Under Greenspan?, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel, David R. Henderson

Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Misaligned Incentives And Mortgage Lending In Asia, Richard Green, Roberto S. Mariano, Andrey Pavlov, Susan Wachter

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper provides a conceptual basis for the price discovery potential for tradable market instruments and specifically the development of mortgage securitization in Asia and the potential dangers of such markets. Nonetheless we argue for the potential importance of securitization in Asia because of its possible role in increasing transparency of the financial sector of Asian economies. We put forth a model explaining how misaligned incentives can lead to bank generated real estate crashes and macroeconomic instability, with or without securitization under certain circumstances. We examine the banking sector’s performance in Asia compared to securitized real estate returns, to provide …

Analyzing And Forecasting Business Cycles In A Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Factor Model For Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy

Research Collection School Of Economics

A dynamic factor model is applied to a large panel dataset of Singapore’s macroeconomic variables and global economic indicators with the initial objective of analyzing business cycles in a small open economy. The empirical results suggest that four common factors are present in the quarterly time series, which can broadly be interpreted as world, regional, electronics and domestic economic cycles. The estimated factor model explains well the observed fluctuations in real economic activity and price inflation, leading us to use it in forecasting Singapore’s business cycles. We find that the forecasts generated by the factors are generally more accurate than …

The Fed’S Binge, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel

Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Basic Is Macro Models, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). [Handwritten folder label identifying contents as "Basic IS macro models": (1) Hicks; (2) Keynes/PK; (3) NC; (4) Harrod; (5) Marx; folder tab notation: "Macro IS models comparisons"]. Unpublished manuscript note. New School for Social Research.
• Shaikh, A. (2009, December 03). [Handwritten working notes, 3 pages plus one additional formula page, titled "Basic macro models: IS/LM, PK, NC, Harrod, Marx, 12/3/09": comparative static and dynamic analysis of five macroeconomic frameworks across two cases (exogenous vs. endogenous money, fixed saving rate, u ≠ u_N); Model I (Hicks/IS-LM): exogenous money with fixed saving rate, paradox of thrift, …

Can Parallel Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?, John F. Roberts

Honors Theses

Commodity price uncertainty imposes large costs on society. On the macro level, it results in sudden and unexpected shifts in current account imbalances and real GDP volatility, while on the micro level, it leads to allocation inefficiencies. Accurate price forecasts have the potential to remove some of this uncertainty and allow for a more efficient distribution of resources, and thus, an increase in social welfare. Despite the obvious gains to be had from accurate commodity price forecasts, few models have been able to deliver these results. Chen, Rogoff and Rossi (2008) were the first to find a promising link between …

Cyclicality Of State Budgeting: A Political-Economy Analysis., Ian W. Cummins

Honors Theses

This paper disentangles the effect of political ideology and budget rules on fiscal cyclicality across the U.S. states. Using panel data from 1963 to 2006, liberal states are found to be significantly less procyclical than conservative ones. The impact of balanced budget constraints is contingent on the ideological orientation of the state in which they are imposed. Tight balanced budget rules are not binding on conservative states, but are binding on liberal ones. Where they are binding, budget rules mediate the link between voter preferences and policy outcomes skewing them toward greater procyclicality.

Do Good Things Come Out After Recessions? The Productivity-Business Cycle Interaction, Michael M. Alba, Lawrence B. Dacuycuy

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

For the past two decades, the Philippines has endured a wave of recessions, events that technically represent fluctuations in economic activity. While some of these recessions have been shallow, resulting in minor deviations from where our economy should be, some have been deep and devastating like the ones that occurred during the last years of the Marcos regime.

Central Bank Iceland Postcard, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Þorgeirsson, Þ. (2009, December). Letter to anwar shaikh (Correspondence).

Japan's Recession, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Koo, R. C. (2009). The holy grail of macroeconomics: lessons from japan's great recession. John Wiley & Sons (23-16_Koo ... pp. 2-3).
• Shaikh, A. (c. 2009). Marginal annotations and commentary on 'The holy grail of macroeconomics' (Handwritten note) (23-16_Koo ... pp. 3, 25).

Abr And Walras Law, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (2001, January 29). Ex post stock/flow [Handwritten lecture notes for Lecture 205]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (2003, December 15). Structure of Godley’s basic ex ante model [Handwritten notes]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (2002, May 3). Stock/flow accounts and restraints [Handwritten notes]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Korliras, P. G., & Thorn, R. S. (1979). Part four: Disequilibrium macroeconomics. In Modern macroeconomics: Major contributions to contemporary thought [Book excerpt]. Publisher unknown.

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Add to KK/classical [Handwritten notes]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (2009, April 25). Adjustment time and involuntary unemployment [Handwritten notes]. …

Ape 2, Methodology, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (2008, October 22). Ch 3 microfoundations, emergent properties and nonlinear dynamics [Partial chapter draft with outline, printed pages 15-30, and repeated copies of page 21].
• NetLogo simulations microfoundations paper [Simulation instructions for heterogeneous, homogeneous, whimsical, and imitate/innovate agents]. (2009, February 12).
• Shaikh, A. (2008, October 22). Ch 3 microfoundations, emergent properties and nonlinear dynamics [Annotated manuscript fragment covering printed pages 1-12 and 14].

Soros Proposal, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (2009). Paul to Tim about creating a web presence for dept (Unpublished manuscript notes) (23-41_Soro... p. 2).
• Economics Department, New School for Social Research. (2009). Proposal for a center for new economic thinking at the New School for Social Research (Unpublished manuscript) (23-41_Soro... p. 3).
• Shaikh, A. (2009, August 19). Soros initiative v.2.docx: Notes for use in editing (Unpublished manuscript notes) (23-41_Soro... p. 7).
• Foley, D. (2009, September 29). Soros and Institute for New Economic Thinking (Unpublished email) (23-41_Soro... p. 8).
• Shaikh, A. (2009, August 19). Soros initiative v.2: Notes (Unpublished manuscript notes) (23-41_Soro... p. …

Asymptotic Properties Of Equilibrium In Discriminatory And Uniform Price Ipv Multi-Unit Auctions, Brett E. Katzman

Faculty Articles

This paper confronts the tractability problems that accompany IPV auction models with multi-unit bidder demands. Utilizing a first order approach, the asymptotic properties of symmetric equilibria in discriminatory and uniform price auctions are derived. It is shown that as the number of bidders increases, equilibrium bids converge to valuations in both discriminatory auctions and uniform price auctions where the price paid is determined by the lowest winning bid, thus indicating that the limiting case of these auctions correspond to price taking as in neoclassical models of consumer behavior. However, when the uniform price paid is tied to the highest losing …

A Centered Index Of Spatial Concentration: Axiomatic Approach With An Application To Population And Capital Cities, Filipe R. Campante, Quoc-Anh Do

Research Collection School Of Economics

We construct an axiomatic index of spatial concentration around a center or capital point of interest, a concept with wide applicability from urban economics, economic geography and trade, to political economy and industrial organization. We propose basic axioms (decomposability and monotonicity) and refinement axioms (order preservation, convexity, and local monotonicity) for how the index should respond to changes in the underlying distribution. We obtain a unique class of functions satisfying all these properties, defined over any n-dimensional Euclidian space: the sum of a decreasing, isoelastic function of individual distances to the capital point of interest, with specific boundaries for the …