Macroeconomics Commons^™

Macroeconomic Fluctuations As Sources Of Luck In Ceo Compensation, Hsin-Hui Chiu, Lars Oxelheim, Clas Wihlborg, Jianhua Zhang

Business Faculty Articles and Research

Macroeconomic fluctuations in interest rates, exchange rates, and inflation can be considered sources of good or bad “luck” for corporate performance if management is unable to adjust operations to these fluctuations. Based on a sample of 2,091 US firms, we decompose the impacts of macroeconomic fluctuations on three measures of CEO compensation. Our study provides empirical support for the importance of considering macroeconomic fluctuations in designing CEO incentive schemes. It adds to the managerial power literature on moral hazard and CEO compensation by pinpointing the obvious risk that the CEO in an asymmetric and non-linear reward system will be inclined …

The Impact Of The Volatility Of Monetary Policy On A Small Economy: Some Evidence From New Zealand, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Jiling Cao, Wenjun Zhang

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

This paper investigates the impact of the international and domestic volatility of monetary policy shocks on a small economy using the GARCH-SVAR model. We enrich the SVAR model by using time-varying International and domestic volatilities as endogenous variables. The results show that although monetary policy shocks have transient effect on real economy (neutrality of money) the impact of the volatility of monetary policy shocks on real part of the economy is permanent and significant. Findings of variance decomposition also show that New Zealand heavily depends on international trade, so international monetary shocks can have a permanent impact on the local …

External Economies And Competitive Equilibrium, George A. Hay, John J. Mcgowan

George A. Hay

In an article published in 1955, Murray Kemp analyzed the case for interference with the competitive allocation of resources when external economies of production are present. In the specific model we are interested in—where the costs of any one producer's operations are affected by the total output of all producers of the same product—Kemp attempted to show that where entry into the industry is closed (although the industry is otherwise perfectly competitive), "there can always be found a subsidy, either on the product or on a particular factor, which will be a sufficient incentive to firms to produce an optimal …

External Diseconomies In Competitive Supply: Comment, George A. Hay, John J. Mcgowan

George A. Hay

In a recent article in this Review, Charles Goetz and James Buchanan (G-B) assert that " . . . the standard description of misallocation in the presence of external production diseconomies is misleading . . . " because these externalities produce a ". . . combination of exchange-inefficiency with production-inefficiency [which ] renders the construction of correction devices much more difficult" (p. 889). Stated otherwise their contention is that with external diseconomies that are internal to an industry, i.e., those that each firm in an industry inflicts on other firms in the same industry, a competitive regime in the presence …

Exchange Rate And Inflation: Is There A Relationship In Nigeria, C.N.O. Mordi

Economic and Financial Review

This paper attempts to examine the link between exchange rate and domestic price level in Nigeria. Employing the VAR technique, the study used monthly series of inter-bank rate, world export prices, real gross domestic product, oil prices and consumer price index from 2000MI to 2015MI. The results from the study show that exchange rate pass-through to price level is high. a shock to exchange rate (depreciation) would increase domestic price by 0.72 per cent in the first month. The effect rose to 0.82, 0.85 and 0.86 per cent in month 2,4 and 6, respectively, before it began to fall. By …

On Testing For Sphericity With Non-Normality In A Fixed Effects Panel Data Model, Badi H. Baltagi, Chihwa Kao, Bin Peng

Center for Policy Research

Building upon the work of Chen et al. (2010), this paper proposes a test for sphericity of the variance-covariance matrix in a fixed effects panel data regression model without the normality assumption on the disturbances.

The Nonlinear Price Fynamics Of Us Equity Etfs, Gunduz Caginalp, Mark Desantis, Akin Sayrak

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

We investigate the price dynamics of large market-capitalization U.S. equity exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in order to uncover trader motivations and strategy. We show that prices of highly liquid ETFs can deviate significantly from their daily net asset values. By adjusting for changes in valuations, we report the impact of non-classical variables including price trend and volatility using data from 2008 to 2011. We find a cubic nonlinearity in the trend suggesting that traders are not only aware of the underreaction of others, but also self-optimize by anticipating others' reactions, and sell when the uptrend is stronger than usual.

The Financial Crisis Impact On Potential Output In Iran, Fatemeh Almasi, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Jalili Khodaparast Shirazi Dr.

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

In this study the quarterly data from 1996:1-2011:2 have been used to investigate the effect of financial crisis on potential output in Iran. For this purpose potential output, natural unemployment rate, spread between short-run and long-run interest rate and real money supply variables are used to estimate Auto Regressive Model and analyze Impulse-Response function and Variance Decomposition. The results show that financial crisis has a negative impact on potential output in Iran. Also, monetary shocks have negative impact on potential output in Iran. As regards, monetary policy has no effect on actual output in long-run, it seems that monetary policies …

The Impact Of Global And Domestic Volatility Of Monetary Policy: A Var-Garch Approach, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Jiling Cao Prof., Wenjun Zhang Dr.

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

In the past six decades a lot of research has been carried out to find the effect of monetary policy on real economy. But in the most of these articles, the effect of the volatility of monetary policy has been ignored. This paper investigates the impact of the international and domestic volatility of monetary policy shocks using the GARCH-VAR model. We enrich the VAR model by adding time-varying volatility as endogenous variables. We consider three different types of shocks: internal (domestic), regional and global. For our empirical evidence we use quarterly data of Australia and New Zealand from 1988:1 to …

A Closer Look At The Impact Of Quantitative Easing On The Capital Markets: Garch Analysis Of The Exchange Traded Funds Market, Nicholas R. Duafala

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper analyzes the effects of quantitative easing (QE) on the capital markets by modeling exchange traded funds (ETFs) returns using a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) methodology. The results show that the 10-Year Treasury yields are significant in the returns of some sectors of the economy more so than others, and the Federal Funds Futures trading volume is significant in all ETFs return volatility. The implications of these results not only provide information about the reaction of the ETF market and QE, but also provide insight for developing investment strategies.

Financialization Of The Commodities Futures Markets And Its Effects On Prices, Manisha Pradhananga

Doctoral Dissertations

After declining for almost three decades, the food price index of the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) rose by 90 percent between January 2002 and June 2008. Besides the magnitude, the rise in prices was remarkable for its breadth, affecting a broad range of commodities including agricultural (wheat, corn, soybeans, cocoa, coffee), energy (crude oil, gasoline), and metals (copper, aluminum). According to the US Department of Agriculture, this price spike was responsible for increasing the number of malnourished people by 80 million. These dramatic developments in prices coincided with a rapid inflow of investment into the commodities futures market -- …

Three Essays In Macroeconomic History, Joshua W. Mason

Doctoral Dissertations

Following Minsky, an economy can be understood as a set of units linked to each other by flows of money payments and by the commitments to future payments reflected on balance sheets. This dissertation offers three accounts of the historical evolution of the US economy, conceived of a network of balance sheets, over the course of 20th and early 21st century. The first essay looks at changes in the pattern of payment flows between nonfinancial corporations and financial markets associated with the ``shareholder revolution" of the 1980s. It argues that the shift in payouts to shareholders from a quasi-fixed stream …

Output Fluctuations And Economic Growth In Latin America In The Aftermath Of The Great Recession, Gonzalo Hernandez Jimenez

Doctoral Dissertations

This dissertation examines the short and long run effects of the Great Recession on Latin America. For the short run, this study evaluates (i) the existence of a business cycle co-movement between the US and Latin America, (ii) the role of the Latin American export structure as an aspect that may amplify the growth spillover effects of the output fluctuations in the US, and (iii) the terms of trade as a determinant of the short run output fluctuations in Colombia, a primary commodity exporter that resembles the assumptions of open small dependent economies. Consistent with the historical evidence, the US …

The Financial Underpinnings Of The Eu Crisis: Financial Deregulation, Privatization, And Asymmetric State Power, Nina Q. Eichacker

Doctoral Dissertations

This dissertation asks the following questions. How has financial liberalization affected the incidence of financial crisis in Europe? How have power asymmetries within Western Europe facilitated the process of financial liberalization, and distributed the costs and gains from this liberalization? How have these dynamics been demonstrated at the state level? It charts the institutional liberalization and privatization of European finance from the 1960s onward and presents a survey of descriptive statistics that show how different financial stability, financial flow, and macroeconomic variables have changed in Western Europe since the early 1980s, generally increasing financial and economic instability. It also demonstrates …

The Financialization Of The Nonfinancial Corporation In The Post-1970 U.S. Economy, Leila Emami Davis

Doctoral Dissertations

This dissertation analyzes the financialization of nonfinancial corporations (NFCs), emphasizing changes in firm-level financial behavior in the post-1970 U.S. economy. The dissertation consists of four essays. These essays ask what is the financialization of NFCs, explore why NFCs have ‘financialized’, and evaluate the implications for fixed investment behavior. Chapter 2 lays out a simple stylized framework describing firm-level portfolio choice and utilizes this framework to analyze the implications of increasing NFC involvement in the provision of financial services, increasingly entrenched shareholder value norms, and rising firm-level demand volatility for NFC financial structure. By articulating underlying determinants of firm-level portfolio and …

Agricultura Ó Industria ¿Un Juego De Suma Cero?, Francisco Carlos Ruiz Diaz

Francisco Carlos Ruiz Diaz

Se viene escuchando de forma recurrente que el modelo productivo paraguayo, basado en la agricultura mecanizada y la ganadería extensiva, es promotor de desigualdades sociales. Estas afirmaciones por lo general no se sustentan en evidencia concluyente. Otros sectores critican, a su vez, el impacto negativo de la expansión primaria sobre el medio ambiente y la salud de las personas. En este campo la evidencia es más robusta, lo cual deja al desnudo la debilidad de las instituciones del Estado por defender los ecosistemas y la salud de las personas. También se cuestiona el escaso aporte tributario del sector primario. En …

The Long-Run Decline In Labor Share: Technology Versus Institutions, Mary O'Mahony, Michela Vecchi, Francesco Venturini

Francesco Venturini

We investigate the causes of the declining trend in labor shares using a large industry level data set and controlling for heterogeneity, non-stationarity and cross-sectional dependence. Our results show that in, the long run, technological changes and ICT capital are major sources of the decline. Conversely, knowledge capital increases labor shares, as well as more stringent regulations on intellectual property rights. Other market regulations do not play a significant role. Our results also show that hysteresis characterizes the dynamics of labor shares in all countries. This further supports the assumption that institutional differences do not cause labor share movements and …

Three Essays On The Economics Of Defense Contracting, Output And Income Inequality, Edward M. Decambra

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation analyzes both the economics of the defense contracting process and the impact of total dollar obligations on the economies of U.S. states. Using various econometric techniques, I will estimate relationships across individual contracts, state level output, and income inequality. I will achieve this primarily through the use of a dataset on individual contract obligations.

The first essay will catalog the distribution of contracts and isolate aspects of the process that contribute to contract dollar obligations. Accordingly, this study describes several characteristics about individual defense contracts, from 1966-2006: (i) the distribution of contract dollar obligations is extremely rightward skewed, …

Implications Of Export Competitiveness And Performance Of Textile And Clothing Sector Of Pakistan: Pre And Post Quota Analysis, Nawaz Ahmad

Nawaz Ahmad

Textile and Clothing sector of Pakistan has been facing different international trade reforms i.e. Multi-fiber Arrangements, Quota elimination and for some of the developing countries European union, introduced special trade arrangements like GSP plus to improve their balance of trade conditions. In the light of pre quota elimination and post quota elimination periods, this paper highlights trade performance of textile and clothing sector in depth. This study focused on finding the extent of revealed comparative advantage of textile and revealed comparative advantage of clothing sector on overall textile and clothing trade performance of Pakistan. For this purpose study applied Johansen …

Do Hitters Boost Their Performance During Their Contract Years?, Heather M. O'Neill

Business and Economics Faculty Publications

Each season, baseball fans and journalists alike identify which players are in the final years of their contracts because a lot rides on how the players produce in their “contract year.” Will a player boost his effort and performance in an effort to improve his value and bargaining power? Or will he crumble under the pressure? Or are players’ performances uncorrelated with where they stand in their contract cycles?

Medium Term Business Cycles In Developing Countries, Diego Comin, Norman Loayza, Farooq Pasha, Luis Serven

Dartmouth Scholarship

Business cycle fluctuations in developed economies (N) tend to have large and persistent e§ects on developing countries (S). We study the transmission of business cycle fluctuations for developed to developing economies with a two-country asymmetric DSGE model with two features: (i) endogenous and slow diffusion of technologies from the developed to the developing country, and (ii) adjustment costs to investment flows. Consistent with the model we observe that the flow of technologies from N to S co-moves positively with output in both N and S. After calibrating the model to Mexico and the U.S., it can explain the following stylized …

Amicus Brief In Maryland Comptroller V. Wynne, Michael S. Knoll, Ruth Mason

All Faculty Scholarship

The internal consistency test reveals that Maryland applies systematically higher “county” taxes to interstate commerce than to in-state commerce.

Economic analysis of Maryland’s tax regime — including its taxes on inbound, outbound, and domestic activities — confirms what the internal consistency test suggests, namely, that the Maryland “county” tax discourages interstate commerce. Specifically, the Maryland tax regime discourages Maryland residents from earning income outside of Maryland, and it simultaneously discourages nonresidents from earning income in Maryland. Maryland alone causes this distortion; the distortion does not depend on the taxes imposed by any other state.

Petitioner’s argument that Maryland’s outbound tax …

An Economic Analysis Of Housing Market Instability And Affordability In China, You Wang

Undergraduate Economic Review

Applying an intertemporal optimization model proposed by Aizenman and Marion (1991), this research quantifies instability in the Chinese housing market. Although the Chinese government established numerous real estate policies to ensure the stability of the housing market, the regression analyses indicate that housing policies had no significant impact on the stabilization of the Chinese housing market. Alternatively, macroeconomic factors are identified as significant explanatory variables to the instability of housing prices. In addition, this research computes the median multiple for major cities in China and provides an alternative means of investigating the abnormal housing price situation in China.

Responsiveness Of Nigeria's Short-Term Interest Rates To Changes In The Policy Rate, M. K. Tule

Economic and Financial Review

This paper appraises the efficacy of the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) as an anchor for other short-term interest rates in the economy. Adopting the vector autoregression approach, the responses of Nigeria's short-term interest rates to changes in the interbank rate (proxy for MPR) was modelled. The paper found that the pass-through from MPR to money market interest rates in the long-run is higher for the prime and lending rates than for changes in the Treasury bill rate and 3-month deposit rate. Overall, there seemed to be an asymmetric impact with an increase or fall in the interbank rate.

The Financial Sector And Inclusive Development In Africa: Essays On Access To Finance For Small And Medium-Sized Enterprises In South Sudan And Kenya, James A. Garang

Doctoral Dissertations

This dissertation, consisting of three essays, uses data from field surveys of banks and small and medium enterprises (SMEs) conducted in South Sudan and Kenya from July 2011 through September 2012. The first essay examines the role of financial sector development in expanding access to finance by SMEs in Kenya. We find that while the financial system in general, and the Central Bank of Kenya in particular, have made headway in expanding financial inclusion in Kenya, small firms continue to face more constraints in access to finance compared to larger firms. The policy emphasis on financial inclusion, coupled with the …

The Development Pattern And Competitiveness Evaluation Research On China Inland Dry Port, Min Shi

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Essays On Fiscal Policies In Open Economies, Ahiteme Nicodeme Houndonougbo

Doctoral Dissertations

Investigating various fiscal policy issues in the context of an open economy, this dissertation consists of three essays.

The first essay addresses the question of the volatility of foreign aid and its impact on resource-constrained developing economies. A small open-economy business cycle model is developed that accounts for the effect of external shocks specific to developing economies. The model produces business cycle patterns consistent with the data and key stylized facts. The model is calibrated to reflect the structural empirical regularities of an aid-dependent developing country. The parameters of the exogenous stochastic shocks are estimated using Bayesian methods and 50 …

Government Versus Market Regulation: The Nanny State Or The Liberal State, Warren Coats

Warren Coats

The nanny state world is characterized by a growing list of regulations and government supervision of business in an effort to fix the most recently observed problems. The price of such protection is the increased cost of doing business, which tends to crowd out small businesses and favor large ones, which can more easily absorb the compliance costs. The benefit is often difficult to detect. Has Dodd-Frank really made it feasible to fail our largest banks (now larger than they were just before the Great Recession), i.e. are they no longer too big to fail?

The self-governing, liberal state—"Liberalism unrelinquished"—is …

Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interaction: An Empirical Analysis In Egypt, Sahar M. Abdel-Haleim, Mohamed Hassan, Lobna M. Abdel-Latif

Business Administration

This paper examines the effect of the developments introduced since 2003 in Egypt on the nature of interaction of monetary and fiscal policies and the achievement of macroeconomic objectives. Utilizing the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) approach, the dynamic interaction of policies and their effects on macroeconomic aggregates are investigated. The findings support the success of the developments in eliminating the fiscal dominance. However, coordination between policies is still weak to achieve the macroeconomic stabilization objectives. The results also prove the conventional Keynesian effect of fiscal policy on real GDP. However, the fiscal multiplier is very small. Likewise, expansionary monetary policy …

Economic Impacts Of Increased Corporate Average Fuel Economy (Cafe) Standards, Ann K. Hunter-Pirtle

Department of Agricultural Economics: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) mandates that U.S. transportation fuel producers blend specific volumes of ethanol and other biofuels with fossil fuels to spur U.S. biofuel production and to minimize foreign oil imports. Ethanol is more corrosive to auto engines than gasoline, and although vehicles manufactured since 2001 are approved to use up to a 15% ethanol blend (E15) (Naylor & Falcon, 2011), E10 is much more widely available. Ethanol producers therefore face a so-called blend wall at 10 percent—a maximum amount of ethanol that is usable domestically based on the demand for gasoline.

Meanwhile, gasoline demand in the U.S. …