Macroeconomics Commons^™

A Simulation Assessment Of The 'Law Of One Price', Caleb Wilkins

Computational and Data Sciences (MS) Theses

The ‘law of one price’ is an appealing notion regarding pricing of tradeable commodities that are priced in different currencies. It states that the prices of the same good in different markets should be equal after adjustment for exchange rates and that equality should persist through exchange rate fluctuations.

My research simulates the market conditions that should precipitate the ‘law of one price.’ Data was obtained from the simulated trade between algorithmic artificial intelligence agents that operated under induced boundedly rational market behaviors. Trade took place in two initially separate markets, a high-price market with a higher equilibrium price and …

Triple Shock On External Sustainability In Indonesia, Aloysius Deno Hervino, Insukindro Insukindro, Sekar Utami Setiastuti, Amirullah Setya Hardi

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study evaluates Indonesia’s external sustainability by analyzing exports, imports, and net unilateral transfer payments. The study utilizes Indonesia’s data from the third quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2019, applying both a long-run dynamic model and a short-run forward-looking model incorporating triple shocks. This research excludes the period from 2020 onwards due to the economic upheaval in Indonesia resulting from the COVID-19 outbreak. This study concludes that Indonesia’s current account is unsustainable, as neither export nor import variables exhibit a long-term link, hence failing to meet intertemporal budget constraints. Furthermore, imports substantially influence long-term exports, which increase …

Exchange Rate And Indonesia Economic Growth, Ayi Supriyadi, Yanfitri Yanfitri, Trinil Arimurti, Sinta Atharinanda

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

We examine the effect of the exchange rate on the economy and the impact of the Dominant Currency Paradigm (DCP) on Indonesia’s export volume. This study employs multiple methodologies, namely the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the non-linear version of ARDL, and panel regressions. The findings indicated that the depreciation of the exchange rate influenced economic expansion. The beneficial effect was mitigated by the influence of finance as seen in the company’s financial sheet. The findings also indicate the influence of DCP on the volume of international trade in Indonesia.

India And The Rest Of The World: Analyses Of International Monetary Policy Spillovers, Afees A. Salisu

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

The US is India's largest trading partner, followed by the European Union. Our study, using the GVAR model, shows that a US monetary policy (MP) shock results in a depreciation of the Indian currency vis-a-vis the dollar. This is due to Indian investors preferring to invest in the US, which provides higher returns during a US MP shock. The Eurozone MP shock does not have a significant impact due to the increasing dollarization of the Indian economy. However, the US MP shock propagation diminishes when there is economic policy uncertainty. Our findings have implications for monetary policy conduct in India.

External Debt Pass-Through To Inflation In Nigeria, Emmanuel A. Asue, James V. Ikyaator

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines external debt pass-through to inflation in Nigeria using annual data from 1981 to 2020 based on structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. The results reveal that an increase in external debt service leads to a significant depreciation of the exchange rate, which leads to a contemporaneous increase in inflation, while the direct response of inflation to external debt is statistically not significant. The impulse response confirms these results. The forecast error variance decomposition depicts that future values of official exchange rate depend on external debt, inflation and external debt service. The study recommends that the Nigerian government should …

Exchange Rate Forecast Model: Factor Analysis, Swapnil Landge

Publications and Research

Forecasting the exchange rate using factor analysis, factors based on cross section exchange rates of different economies in terms of trade, would beat random walk model in longer out of sample horizon forecasting. In this research project, we will replicate the NBER working paper Factor Model Forecasts of Exchange Rates” by Charles Engel, Nelson C. Mark & Kenneth D. West (2012) which has used 17 OECD countries exchange rates in getting the potential factors but with extended time period from 1973:1-2021:4. We will report early sample forecasting statistics for a 1987-1998 sample. Results for late samples (1999-2022) were promising, at …

Fluctuations Of Macroeconomic Variables And Manufacturing Output: Issues, Challenges And Prospects Of The Growth Of Manufacturing Output In Nigeria, Chris Ac-Ogbonna

Bullion

The study examined the impact of fluctuations of macroeconomic variables such as exchange rate, lending rates and inflation rates on the manufacturing output in Nigeria. The paper used descriptive analysis to investigate the relationship between manufacturing output and macroeconomic stability in Nigeria. The findings revealed that macroeconomic instability impacted negatively on the manufacturing output. The paper therefore recommended that policies that will streamline the multiple and volatile exchange rates, interest rate and inflation control should be designed and implemented to ensure their predictability to aid planning and attract both domestic and foreign investors to the, manufacturing sector. This is expected …

Relationship Between Volatility In Domestic Oil Production, Oil Price And Exchange Rate In Nigeria: Co-Integration And Granger Causality Tests, Bashir Umar Faruk

Bullion

The paper examines the relationship between volatility in domestic oil production, oil prices, and exchange rate in Nigeria. The study employs monthly time series data, from January 2006 to August 2018. Data for the Nigerian Bonny light oil prices (COP), Domestic Oil Production (DOP) and Exchange Rate (EXC) are obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) website. While, dummy variable (DUM) represents stability and instability in the Niger-Delta oil-rich region was traced from historic oil disruptions in the region. Autoregres s i ve Di s tributed Lag (ARDL)/bound testing method and pairwise granger causality were employed. Unit root test …

Purchasing Power Parity Approach To Exchange Rate Misalignment In Nigeria, Nakorji Musa, Agboegbulem Ngozi T. I., Gaiya Blessing A., Atoi Ngozi V.

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the purchasing power parity (PPP) approach to the determination of exchange rate misalignment in Nigeria by using two variants of the PPP: the absolute PPP (aPPP) and the relative PPP (rPPP). Data on the Nigerian Naira to US Dollar (N/$), British Pound (N/£) and Chinese Yuan (N/¥) interbank exchange rates, Nigeria consumer price index and Inflation as well as the US, UK and China consumer price indices and inflation rates spanning 2008:M1 to 2018:M12 were utilized. A recently modified fractional cointegration framework was employed, taking care of smooth structural breaks and nonlinearity, while the unit root tests …

Money And Foreign Exchange Markets Dynamics In Nigeria: A Multivariate Garch Approach, Atoi Ngozi V., Nwambeke Chinedu G.

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the money market and foreign exchange market dynamics in Nigeria by estimating the dynamic correlation and volatility spillovers between the Nigeria Naira/US Dollar Bureau De Change (BDC) exchange rate and interbank call rate with data from January 2007 to August 2019. The study employs a dynamic conditional correlation form of the GARCH model (DCC-GARCH) to assess the nature of correlation, while an unrestricted bivariate BEKK-GARCH (1, 1) form of the multivariate GARCH model is utilized to investigate shocks and volatility spillover of the rates. The estimated DCC-GARCH (1, 1) reveals that interest rate and exchange rate are …

Exchange Rate Regimes And Economic Growth, Amandarae Matthew

Undergraduate Theses

This paper explores the relationship between economic growth and exchange rate regimes among countries of lower income, lower middle income, upper middle income, and high-income countries. Countries must make careful consideration when choosing an exchange rate regime because each regime can have different long-term effects. A cross section pooled time series data will be used for a sample of 42 countries over the period of 2000-2018. Multiple models will examine the various relationships between types of exchange rate regimes, changes in exchange rate regimes, and economic growth. The components of the models being tested include political stability, change in terms …

A Retrospective Insight Into Pakistan's Exchange Rate Regimes And Their Impact On The Economy, Lalarukh Ejaz, Madeeha Akhtar

Business Review

Nuclear tests carried out by Pakistan in May 1998 had a distinctive impact on the evolution of the exchange rate. This case describes what happened to the exchange rate before and after the nuclear tests and focuses on the overall impact of Pakistan’s transition from a hostile relationship with the US in the post-Cold War era to becoming an ally of the US in the war on terror. This case can be used to study the concepts of real and nominal exchange rates, the linkage between exchange rate policy and external balance, how exchange rate can be used as a …

Predictability Of Exchange Rates With Taylor Rule Fundamentals: Evidence From Inflation-Targeting Emerging Countries, Joseph D. Alba, Donghyun Park, Taojun Xie

Research Collection School Of Economics

We investigate the out-of-sample predictability of U.S. dollar exchange rates with Taylor rule fundamentals in thirteen emerging countries with inflation-targeting monetary policy regimes. We find some evidence of out-of-sample exchange rate predictability for Brazil, Czech Republic, Hungary, Philippines, Thailand, and South Africa. Plots of the coefficients of U.S. inflation and Philippine inflation predict the direction of the U.S. dollar-Philippine peso exchange rates to be opposite to that predicted by the Taylor principle.

Exchange Rate And Inflation: Is There A Relationship In Nigeria, C.N.O. Mordi

Economic and Financial Review

This paper attempts to examine the link between exchange rate and domestic price level in Nigeria. Employing the VAR technique, the study used monthly series of inter-bank rate, world export prices, real gross domestic product, oil prices and consumer price index from 2000MI to 2015MI. The results from the study show that exchange rate pass-through to price level is high. a shock to exchange rate (depreciation) would increase domestic price by 0.72 per cent in the first month. The effect rose to 0.82, 0.85 and 0.86 per cent in month 2,4 and 6, respectively, before it began to fall. By …

Demand For Money And Exchange Rate: Evidence For Wealth Effect In India, Sahadudheen I

Undergraduate Economic Review

External factors such as variations in exchange rates should, to some extent, affect the composition of optimal money holdings. It was Robert Mundell who proposed the idea that demand for money could depend on the exchange rate in addition to the income and interest rate. Changes in exchange rate may have two effects on the demand for domestic currency, wealth effect and currency substitution effect. The main objective of the paper is to examine the effects of exchange rate on domestic demand for money in India covering the period of 1998Q1 to 2009Q4. The statistical and time series properties of …

Exchange Rate Volatility In Nigeria: Consistency, Persistency & Severity Analyses, Babatunde Adeoye, Akinwande A. Atanda

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The adoption of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in 1986 resulted in the transition from fixed exchange rate regime to floating exchange rate regime in Nigeria. Ever since, the exchange rate of naira vis-à-vis the U.S dollar has attained varying rates all through different time horizons. On this basis, this study examines the consistency, persistency, and severity (degree) of volatility in exchange rate of Nigerian currency (naira) vis-a-vis the United State dollar using monthly time series data from 1986 to 2008. The standard Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) model was used to analyze the long-run consistency of …

Money And Inflation: Evaluating The Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy In Nigeria, Mbutor O. Mbutor, Okafor Ifeanyi Izuchukwu, Ameh Oguche Sunday

Bullion

The paper establishes the relationship between monetary policy and inflation.

Can Parallel Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?, John F. Roberts

Honors Theses

Commodity price uncertainty imposes large costs on society. On the macro level, it results in sudden and unexpected shifts in current account imbalances and real GDP volatility, while on the micro level, it leads to allocation inefficiencies. Accurate price forecasts have the potential to remove some of this uncertainty and allow for a more efficient distribution of resources, and thus, an increase in social welfare. Despite the obvious gains to be had from accurate commodity price forecasts, few models have been able to deliver these results. Chen, Rogoff and Rossi (2008) were the first to find a promising link between …

Overview Of Exchange Rate Management In Nigeria., Mike I. Obadan

Bullion

The exchange rate is a key macroeconomic variable in the context of general economic policy making, and of economic reform programmes, in particular. It is a very important price which governments take very active interest in. However, two concepts of exchange rate are commonly distinguished: nominal exchange rate and real exchange rate. - The nominal exchange rate (NER) is a monetary concept which measures the relative price of two moneys or currencies, e.g., Naira in relation to the U. S dollar. - But the real exchange rate (RER), as the name implies, is a real concept that measures the relative …

Exchange Rate Stability And Poverty Reduction In Nigeria, Greg Nzekwu

Bullion

The paper discusses the role of macroeconomic policy in achieving social as well as macroeconomic objectives in attaining poverty reduction in Nigeria. Nigeria's economy is growing at an impressive rate compared to the historical. This reflects in part increased investor confidence due t o the improvement in macroeconomic management and positive dividends of the new found economic direction and general political stability. However, the renewed optimism is unlikely to be sustained if appreciable progress is not made to advance growth, general macroeconomic stability and poverty reduction. The reveals that, In order for growth to be poverty reducing, the link between …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1997, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

In 1997, Nigeria experienced its third consecutive year of macroeconomic stability, resulting in modest improvement in domestic output growth and a persistently low inflation rate. The balance of payments position showed a modest surplus, and significant success was achieved in reducing domestic liquidity growth. Domestic output expanded further due to increased agricultural output and crude petroleum production, while the inflation rate declined further. Domestic output, measured by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), increased by 3.8% in 1997, as against the average growth rate of 2.3% in the preceding three years. The fight against inflation was highly successful, reaching a single …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, December 1997, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Statistical Bulletin

Financial data is compiled from documents like balance sheets and financial statements, which are designed for legal and administrative purposes rather than economic analysis. The Financial Statistics Office compiles the analytical CBN balance sheet without major reclassifications or rearrangements. However, due to problems with imprecise definitions, improper classification, inadequate sectorization, inaccuracies, irregular valuation procedures, and errors in data compilation, major revisions were made. The Computer Services Department generates summary and detailed analytical balance sheets based on the end-month BANKOS 302 of the CBN, Lagos branch. The consolidation of accounts of monetary authorities and deposit money banks produces monetary survey accounts. …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin June 1997, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Statistical Bulletin

Financial data is compiled from financial statements and balance sheets, which are designed to meet legal and administrative requirements rather than economic analysis needs. The Finance and Accounts Department prepares the CBN accounting balance sheet data for the Research Department to compile the CBN analytical accounts. However, major revisions were made due to imprecise definitions, improper classification, inadequate sectorization, inaccuracies, irregular valuation procedures, and errors in data compilation on foreign assets. The Computer Services Department uses high-level computing to generate both summary and detailed analytical balance sheets based on the end-month BANKOS 302 of the CBN, Lagos branch. The consolidation …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, December 1996, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Statistical Bulletin

Financial data is compiled from documents like balance sheets and financial statements to meet legal and administrative requirements, rather than economic analysis. The Finance and Accounts Department prepares the CBN accounting balance sheet data for the Research Department, while the Financial Statistics Office compiles the analytical CBN balance sheet. Monetary authorities and deposit money banks consolidate accounts to produce monetary survey accounts. Monthly interest rate returns compute weighted average lending and deposit interest rates, and deposit rates are computed for various maturities. Clearing house statistics show the number and value of cheques cleared within the commercial banking system, reflecting the …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, June 1996, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Statistical Bulletin

Financial data is compiled from documents like balance sheets and financial statements, which are primarily designed for legal and administrative purposes. The Finance and Accounts Department uses Bloomberg sources to prepare CBN accounting balance sheet data for the Research Department to compile analytical accounts. The Financial Statistics Office compiles the analytical CBN balance sheet without reclassifications or rearrangements of available accounting data. The consolidation of accounts of monetary authorities and deposit money banks produces monetary survey accounts. Monthly interest rate returns are used to compute weighted average lending and deposit interest rates. Deposit rates are computed for various maturities. Clearing …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, December 1995, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Statistical Bulletin

Financial data is compiled from balance sheets and financial statements, which are primarily designed for legal and administrative purposes rather than economic analysis. The Finance and Accounts Department prepares the CBN accounting balance sheet data for the Research Department, using the monthly return of Assets and Liabilities and the summary trial balance as benchmarks. The Financial Statistics Office compiles the analytical CBN balance sheet without major reclassifications or rearrangements. The consolidation of accounts of monetary authorities and deposit money banks produces monetary survey accounts. Deposit money banks are highly prone to volatility and fragility, making them subject to regulations and …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, June 1995, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Statistical Bulletin

Financial data is compiled from balance sheets and financial statistics, which are designed for various logistical and administrative requirements rather than economic analysis. Final data compilation involves aggregating the financial system's accounts to discern macroeconomic tendencies. The Finance and Accounts Department prepares the CBN accounting balance sheet data for the Research Department, using the monthly return of Assets and Liabilities (BANKOS 324) as a benchmark and the summary trial balance (BANKOS 302) as a source for detailed information. The Financial Statistics Office consolidates the accounts of monetary authorities and deposit money banks, producing monetary survey accounts. Deposit money banks are …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, December 1994, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Statistical Bulletin

Financial data is compiled from various documents, such as balance sheets and financial statements, to meet legal and administrative requirements rather than economic analysis needs. The Finance and Accounts Department prepares the CBN accounting balance sheet data for the Research Department, using the monthly return of Assets and Liabilities and the summary trial balance as benchmarks. The Financial Statistics Office compiles the analytical CBN balance sheet without major reclassifications or rearrangements. Monetary survey accounts are produced by consolidating accounts of monetary authorities and deposit money banks. Monthly interest rate returns are used to compute weighted average lending and deposit interest …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1992., Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

In 1992, Nigeria's economy faced significant pressures but showed resilience, with rapid growth in output and economic liquidity. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) intensified efforts to achieve inflation and exchange rate stability while improving the efficiency of the financial sector. The financial sector experienced rapid growth and structural changes, with the strongest growth occurring in common unity banking and mortgage finance institutions. Monetary and credit aggregates expanded at unprecedented rates, matching the all-time highs of the oil boom era of the mid-seventies. Interest rates rose significantly, with both deposit and lending rates rising in tandem with the movements of …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, December 1990, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Statistical Bulletin

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is recognized for its role in collecting, collating, analyzing, and disseminating data on the Nigerian economy. It has made available as much information as possible through its regular publications such as the Monthly, Half-Year, and Annual Reports, as well as the Economic and Financial Review and the Intermediate Economic and Financial Indicators. However, the bulk of the statistics published in these documents have focused mainly on the current and irregular reporting periods. This has led to a gap in the availability of relevant statistics in the country. The first issue of the CBN Strategic …