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Articles 1 - 30 of 30
Full-Text Articles in Macroeconomics
Inflation-Differential Rule Versus (De Facto Soft-Peg) Discretion: Exchange-Rate Management Approach In Developing Economies, Behnam Ebrahimi, Mohammad Vaez Barzani Dr.
Inflation-Differential Rule Versus (De Facto Soft-Peg) Discretion: Exchange-Rate Management Approach In Developing Economies, Behnam Ebrahimi, Mohammad Vaez Barzani Dr.
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking
Many developing and emerging economies officially report a managed floating exchange-rate regime tailored with a fundamental exchange rate management approach, while in practice operating a de facto soft peg, characterized by discretionary, near-constant exchange-rate depreciation aimed at dampening inflation expectations. This discretionary approach—often justified as a pragmatic response to inflationary pressure—produces a hybrid regime that lacks the transparency and credibility emphasized in IMF policy guidance. This study evaluates whether substituting Discretionary Soft-Peg Exchange Rate Management approach with an Inflation-Differential Rule of Exchange Rate Management approach, which links exchange-rate adjustments to the inflation differential between domestic and rest of the world, …
Puzzling Behavior In Monetary Policy Transmission: New Evidence From Central Asian Economies, Elyor Davlatov, Judit Sági
Puzzling Behavior In Monetary Policy Transmission: New Evidence From Central Asian Economies, Elyor Davlatov, Judit Sági
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking
The misidentification of monetary policy shocks typically produces the price, and the exchange rate puzzles in empirical studies. Numerous identification approaches have been introduced in the VAR literature, and these approaches have been applied to address anomalies in various countries. This study examines how well these identification approaches have worked in resolving price and exchange rate puzzles under state dominance in the financial sector in a highly dollarized and shallow financial market environment of Central Asian Economies (CAEs). First, a baseline Vector Autoregression (VAR) model with short-run restrictions is estimated using Cholesky factorization, with anomalous results observed for both prices …
Passed Through Or Pushed Back? Exchange Rate Effects On Manufacturing Trade Prices In Indonesia And The Asean Plus Three, Fatikha Rizky Kurnia, Miguel Angel Esquivias, Wee-Yeap Lau, Unggul Heriqbaldi
Passed Through Or Pushed Back? Exchange Rate Effects On Manufacturing Trade Prices In Indonesia And The Asean Plus Three, Fatikha Rizky Kurnia, Miguel Angel Esquivias, Wee-Yeap Lau, Unggul Heriqbaldi
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking
This study analyzes the Exchange Rate Pass-Through (ERPT) on export and import prices in Indonesia’s manufacturing trade with ASEAN Plus-three countries (China, Japan, and South Korea) using monthly data from 2016 to 2022. Employing the Nonlinear (NARDL) models, we examine the degree and asymmetry of ERPT across five key manufacturing sectors for each partner. The NARDL model confirms asymmetric price responses to currency appreciation and depreciation in several sectors. The findings reveal significant sectoral and country-specific variations. Some export sectors experience complete pass-through in the short term but shift to negative complete passthrough in the long run. Meanwhile, imports from …
Financial Stability Versus Bank Lending Channel Transmission: The Impact Of Bank Competition And Concentration In Indonesia, Alif Ihsan A Fahta, Chaikal Nuryakin
Financial Stability Versus Bank Lending Channel Transmission: The Impact Of Bank Competition And Concentration In Indonesia, Alif Ihsan A Fahta, Chaikal Nuryakin
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking
Using financial data from 47 publicly listed banks in Indonesia from 2013Q4 to 2023Q3, this study employs a new approach by utilizing ΔCoVaR as a proxy for financial stability to examine how changes in bank competition in bank competition and banking industry concentration affects financial stability and the effectiveness of bank lending channel transmission. We find that, on one hand, an increase in market power (decreased bank competition) and an increase in banking industry concentration reduce financial stability. On the other hand, an increase in banking industry concentration enhances the effectiveness of the bank lending channel transmission by increasing the …
Age Structure And Inflation Dynamics In Pacific Island Economies, August Letlet, Karan Rai, Bhavesh Garg
Age Structure And Inflation Dynamics In Pacific Island Economies, August Letlet, Karan Rai, Bhavesh Garg
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking
This study uses the panel of six Pacific Island Countries (PICs) to investigate the relationship between changing age structures and inflation. The findings suggest that both aggregated and disaggregated shares of the working-age population exert disinflationary pressure. This supports the life cycle hypothesis, which postulates that people in their productive years tend to save and produce more than they consume, fostering economic stability and managing inflation. Conversely, the findings indicate that old-age dependency contributes to inflationary pressures. These insights underscore the importance of demographic dynamics in shaping inflation trends and provide valuable guidance for policymakers aiming to maintain price stability.
Disaggregated Economic Complexity And Inflation In Oecd Countries, Raymond L. Aor, Afees A. Salisu
Disaggregated Economic Complexity And Inflation In Oecd Countries, Raymond L. Aor, Afees A. Salisu
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking
This study probes the intricate relationship between economic complexity and inflation dynamics, an area that has been relatively under-researched despite the potential for economic complexity to predict inflation. We focus on selected OECD countries and use panel data from 1998 to 2021. Utilizing a Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PARDL) model, we analyze both short- and long-term dynamics across various components of inflation. Our analysis encompasses both aggregate and disaggregated indicators of complexity, including ECI-Trade, ECI-Technology, and ECI-Research. The results indicate that the impact of economic complexity on inflation differs depending on the type of inflation and the time frame considered. …
Tracing The Literature On Central Bank Communication: A Bibliometric Review, Kanupriya Madan, Amlendu Dubey
Tracing The Literature On Central Bank Communication: A Bibliometric Review, Kanupriya Madan, Amlendu Dubey
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking
This paper examines past and current research trends in central bank communication, as well as the thematic evolution and dominant themes in the field, through a bibliometric analysis of research works published in Scopus-indexed journals from 2006 to 2023. The study aims to map the intellectual structure of the field, identify key themes, and highlight influential work. Our key findings are as follows. First, the literature is classified into four primary domains: types of central bank communication, macroeconomic effects, communication channels, and analytical methodologies. Second, the main findings include the importance of formal communication, such as minutes of monetary policy …
Testing Fractional Inflation Persistence In The West African Monetary Zone, Afees A. Salisu, Nuruddeen Usman, Godday Uwawunkonye Ebuh
Testing Fractional Inflation Persistence In The West African Monetary Zone, Afees A. Salisu, Nuruddeen Usman, Godday Uwawunkonye Ebuh
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking
Understanding inflation persistence is of utmost significance for monetary policymakers in an era of heightened global economic interdependence and increased susceptibility to external shocks. Thus, this study examines the dynamics of inflation within the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ), employing both conventional and innovative econometric methods, notably Fractional integration and Fractionally Cointegrated Vector AutoRegressive (FCVAR) models. Our analysis reveals a compelling paradox in the persistence of inflation. Conventional methodologies suggest a robust inertia with high persistence levels nearing unity. Conversely, Fractional Integration paints a more intricate portrait, indicating a dynamic, less persistent behavior with persistence values notably below 0.5. Crucially, …
Independence Of Central Banks In Nondemocratic Regimes: Implications For Price Stability, Abeeb O. Olaniran, Umar B. Ndako
Independence Of Central Banks In Nondemocratic Regimes: Implications For Price Stability, Abeeb O. Olaniran, Umar B. Ndako
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking
This study examines the impact of central bank independence on inflation in nondemocratic regimes, with a specific focus on the differences between Islamic and nonIslamic groups. It utilizes nonstationary heterogeneous panels to estimate both the longrun and short-run responses of inflation to central bank independence. Additionally, it employs a panel smooth transition regression model to identify any potential threshold effects in this relationship. Our findings reveal an inverse relationship between central bank independence and inflation rates for both groups in the long run. Our result suggests that non-Islamic authoritarian countries may struggle more than Islamic ones to maintain price stability …
Early Warning Models For Anticipating Crisis: Insights From Sri Lanka, K P Prabheesh, Vishuddhi Jayawickrema
Early Warning Models For Anticipating Crisis: Insights From Sri Lanka, K P Prabheesh, Vishuddhi Jayawickrema
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking
The study investigates how well early warning systems can predict currency crises in Sri Lanka, with special attention given to deviations in credit and business cycles as potential indicators. The research incorporates domestic and international factors, as well as credit and business cycle indicators, to anticipate currency crises. It uses multiple approaches such as exchange rate pressure index for crisis identification, signalling approach and logit regression for examining the predictive capacity of the indicators. Using quarterly data from 1997 to 2022, the study identifies seven crisis events in the country. Our empirical findings show that before the currency crises, credit …
Triple Shock On External Sustainability In Indonesia, Aloysius Deno Hervino, Insukindro Insukindro, Sekar Utami Setiastuti, Amirullah Setya Hardi
Triple Shock On External Sustainability In Indonesia, Aloysius Deno Hervino, Insukindro Insukindro, Sekar Utami Setiastuti, Amirullah Setya Hardi
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking
This study evaluates Indonesia’s external sustainability by analyzing exports, imports, and net unilateral transfer payments. The study utilizes Indonesia’s data from the third quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2019, applying both a long-run dynamic model and a short-run forward-looking model incorporating triple shocks. This research excludes the period from 2020 onwards due to the economic upheaval in Indonesia resulting from the COVID-19 outbreak. This study concludes that Indonesia’s current account is unsustainable, as neither export nor import variables exhibit a long-term link, hence failing to meet intertemporal budget constraints. Furthermore, imports substantially influence long-term exports, which increase …
Exchange Rate And Indonesia Economic Growth, Ayi Supriyadi, Yanfitri Yanfitri, Trinil Arimurti, Sinta Atharinanda
Exchange Rate And Indonesia Economic Growth, Ayi Supriyadi, Yanfitri Yanfitri, Trinil Arimurti, Sinta Atharinanda
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking
We examine the effect of the exchange rate on the economy and the impact of the Dominant Currency Paradigm (DCP) on Indonesia’s export volume. This study employs multiple methodologies, namely the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the non-linear version of ARDL, and panel regressions. The findings indicated that the depreciation of the exchange rate influenced economic expansion. The beneficial effect was mitigated by the influence of finance as seen in the company’s financial sheet. The findings also indicate the influence of DCP on the volume of international trade in Indonesia.
Does Digital Finance Move Together With Technology Innovation In China?, Zhu Wenhui, Zhang Jiajie, Hu Chuanxia, Dong Hanwei
Does Digital Finance Move Together With Technology Innovation In China?, Zhu Wenhui, Zhang Jiajie, Hu Chuanxia, Dong Hanwei
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking
Existing academic research has predominantly examined the unidirectional impact of digital finance on technological innovation, thereby neglecting the reciprocal interplay between these two domains. This study fills this gap by investigating the long-term bidirectional cointegrated relationship between digital finance and technological innovation. Using panel cointegration estimation methods on panel data from 286 Chinese cities during 2011–2020, empirical results reveal a long-term co-movement between digital finance and technological innovation. Pooled Mean Group estimation demonstrates that digital finance makes significant contributions to technological innovation in both long-term and short-term contexts. However, sub-sample analyses show that digital finance consistently boosts technological innovation in …
Health Crisis And Currency Risk: Fresh Evidence From New Data Sets, Afees A. Salisu, Dinci J. Penzin, Yinka S. Hammed
Health Crisis And Currency Risk: Fresh Evidence From New Data Sets, Afees A. Salisu, Dinci J. Penzin, Yinka S. Hammed
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking
With the aid of a method of predictability analysis that involves a feasible quasigeneralized least squares estimator, we examine the predictive power associated with the newly computed COVID-19 indices, which are disaggregated into six indices for currency market risks (realized volatility of exchange rate). Our sample size covers the period between December 31, 2019, and December 28, 2021. We note mixed outcomes for the major currency markets considered. On average, while the health crisis seems to have heightened the risks associated with Pounds Sterling, Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar against USD, it exerts a moderating effect on the Euro, Yen …
Potential Implications Of The Pandemic On Medium Term Productivity, Pakasa Bary, Pandu Kuntoaji, Dwi F. Multiretno, Igp Wira Kusuma
Potential Implications Of The Pandemic On Medium Term Productivity, Pakasa Bary, Pandu Kuntoaji, Dwi F. Multiretno, Igp Wira Kusuma
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking
This study analyses the potential medium-term impact of the pandemic to productivity and macroeconomy. It simulates the impact of the pandemic on productivity, labor and macroeconomic dynamics. The simulation is carried out using simple variations of real business cycle models, with shock on consumption-leisure preference which are endogenously responded by technology. Simulation results are consistent with macroeconomic dynamics observed during the pandemic and therefore may imply medium term prospects. In addition, permanent application of technology to replace pandemic-related labour restrictions is superior for medium-term growth.
Exit Policy, Liquidity Normalization, And Lts Implications On Central Bank Policy Transmission, Alexander Lubis, Rangga Pratama, Merlin Dwi Yunaniar, Wahyu Agung Nugroho, Dian Prima Susiandri
Exit Policy, Liquidity Normalization, And Lts Implications On Central Bank Policy Transmission, Alexander Lubis, Rangga Pratama, Merlin Dwi Yunaniar, Wahyu Agung Nugroho, Dian Prima Susiandri
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking
The objective of this study is to determine the implications for the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission by examining the impact of specific policy toolkits in both Advanced Economy (AE) and Emerging Market (EM) countries during crises and during normalization (exit policy) upon crisis resolution. The analysis conducted using the VECM method on a number of AE and EM countries demonstrates that the response of bank interest rates (credit) is consistent with changes in policy rates and substantially diverges from Quantitative Easing (QE) policy in both the short and long term. However, the efficacy of monetary policy transmission appears to …
Macroeconomic Modelling Towards Achieving Sustainable Development Goal-13 In India, Aqib Mujtaba Dr., Pravakar Sahoo Dr., Pabitra Kumar Jena Dr.
Macroeconomic Modelling Towards Achieving Sustainable Development Goal-13 In India, Aqib Mujtaba Dr., Pravakar Sahoo Dr., Pabitra Kumar Jena Dr.
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking
This study develops a macroeconomic model to examine the relationships between the energy sector, economic growth and the environment in India over the period 1971 to 2021. Aligning with the United Nations SDG-13 and using the Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equation (SURE) model, we find that the services and agriculture sectors, non-renewable energy consumption, government expenditure, money supply, carbon dioxide emissions per capita, inflation, and population are crucial factors. The services sector and government spending notably impact economic growth and environmental degradation due to increased energy demand and emissions.
Ai Integration And Digital Regulation: Impacts On Global Trade In Digital Services, Srividhya M, Ravi Kiran Reddi
Ai Integration And Digital Regulation: Impacts On Global Trade In Digital Services, Srividhya M, Ravi Kiran Reddi
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking
This study investigates the impact of AI readiness and digital laws on Digitally Deliverable Services (DDS) exports, utilizing a comprehensive dataset that includes developed and developing economies, as well as various global regions. The analysis reveals that AI readiness significantly enhances DDS exports across both developed and developing countries, with notable regional variations. Higher gross national income per capita and larger population sizes are consistently positive factors, while the effects of ITA membership and digital laws, such as cybercrime and consumer protection regulations, vary by region. These findings underscore the importance of tailored policy interventions to enhance DDS exports, considering …
Impact Of Crises On Indian Financial Markets, Pami Dua, Divya Tuteja
Impact Of Crises On Indian Financial Markets, Pami Dua, Divya Tuteja
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking
We investigate the effect of crises on Indian financial markets including the short-term and medium-term money, government securities segments, equity and currency markets. Specifically, we study the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis on market returns, volatility and cross-correlations. We employ a (a) vector autoregressive model to analyse the effects of those shocks on returns and (b) multivariate ADCC-GARCH specification to examine the impact on conditional volatility and dynamic conditional correlation in the markets. We find significant effect of the Global Financial Crisis and the pandemic on the dynamics of the …
Do Digital Payments Spur Gst Revenue: Indian Experience, Surender Kumar
Do Digital Payments Spur Gst Revenue: Indian Experience, Surender Kumar
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking
This paper measures the effect of digital payments on enhancing goods and services tax (GST) revenue in India using monthly time-series information on tax collections and digital payments. By employing an autoregressive distributed lag cointegration framework, we find that the GST elasticity concerning digital transactions is about 0.54. The implication is that a one-standard-deviation increase in the value of digital transactions spurs GST revenue of about INR 62 billion, and a one-standard-deviation increase in index of industrial production (IIP) enhances GST revenue by about INR 8 to 12 billion. These results suggest that enhancing digital transactions is an effective way …
Indian Mutual Fund Industry: Is 2014 A Turning Point?, Shobhit Goel, Pawan Kumar
Indian Mutual Fund Industry: Is 2014 A Turning Point?, Shobhit Goel, Pawan Kumar
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking
Indian Mutual Fund Industry has experienced a nearly 40-fold increase in assets under management since the start of the 21st century, which has implications for the financial sector and the wider economy. Using structural break models, we identify 2003-08 as a nascent growth phase followed by a tepid growth phase in the post-global financial crisis period. Since 2014, the industry has experienced accelerated growth, outpacing global peers, driven by consistent individual investor inflows in equity and hybrid categories. Supportive regulatory policies introduced in 2012-13, we argue, have boosted the industry’s growth.
India And The Rest Of The World: Analyses Of International Monetary Policy Spillovers, Afees A. Salisu
India And The Rest Of The World: Analyses Of International Monetary Policy Spillovers, Afees A. Salisu
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking
The US is India's largest trading partner, followed by the European Union. Our study, using the GVAR model, shows that a US monetary policy (MP) shock results in a depreciation of the Indian currency vis-a-vis the dollar. This is due to Indian investors preferring to invest in the US, which provides higher returns during a US MP shock. The Eurozone MP shock does not have a significant impact due to the increasing dollarization of the Indian economy. However, the US MP shock propagation diminishes when there is economic policy uncertainty. Our findings have implications for monetary policy conduct in India.
Digital Currencies And Macroeconomic Performance: A Global Perspective, Tirimisiyu F. Oloko, Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna, Idris A. Adediran
Digital Currencies And Macroeconomic Performance: A Global Perspective, Tirimisiyu F. Oloko, Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna, Idris A. Adediran
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking
In this study, we explore the IS-LM-BP framework in analysing the effect of digital currencies on macroeconomic performance from a global perspective. We augment the global macroeconomic dataset by Mohaddes and Raissi (2020) with digital currencies, and analyse the relationship between 2010Q1 and 2019Q4. Overall, we find digital currencies to have significantly positive short-run and no long-run impact on global output, inflation rate, interest rate, and equity stock return. Our results suggest that digital currencies have enhanced global macroeconomic performance, on average. Thus, we recommend that appropriate regulations, rather than an outright ban on digital currencies, should be implemented.
Capital Flow And Bank Lending Channels In A Small Open Economy: Evidence From Indonesia, Advis Budiman, Solikin M. Juhro, Sugiharso Safuan
Capital Flow And Bank Lending Channels In A Small Open Economy: Evidence From Indonesia, Advis Budiman, Solikin M. Juhro, Sugiharso Safuan
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking
This paper investigates the implication of macro-financial linkages to explain the interaction of the financial and business cycles as the primary contributor to understanding the fluctuations in the Indonesian economy. It attempts to capture the interaction of the global financial and domestic business cycles through portfolio flow by incorporating investor behavior through a preference for domestic asset classes. Furthermore, due to information asymmetries between lenders and borrowers, we include the monitoring cost to explain the transaction cost in the credit market as a factor that drives macroeconomic fluctuations. Our findings demonstrate how financial imperfections can amplify the impact of global …
Spillover Effects Of Capital Controls: A Critical Review And New Agenda For The Future Directions, Biswajit Panigrahi, K.P Prabheesh
Spillover Effects Of Capital Controls: A Critical Review And New Agenda For The Future Directions, Biswajit Panigrahi, K.P Prabheesh
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking
This study tries to undertake a critical review of the spillover effects of capital controls and their welfare implications. We provide a synthesis of the literature on both the theoretical and empirical literature on the spillover effects of capital controls. Furthermore, the role of similar economies (geographical region, and economic characteristics), direction-specific capital controls, global financial crisis (GFC), asset-specific capital controls and the compositional effect of capital flows are discussed to explore the degree and extent of spillover effects of capital controls policy. Similarly, the welfare implications of capital controls depend on the policy motive behind the imposition of capital …
Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Inflation Expectations In India? Evidences From Surveys Of Household And Professional Forecasters, Irfan Ali Kc
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking
This study examines whether inflation targeting (IT) anchors household and professional forecasters expectations in India. It investigates whether food and non-food inflation affect anchoring inflation expectations differently. Primarily, the results indicate significant decreases in the level and variability of expectations. Further, it provides evidence of successful anchoring for professional forecasters' and household expectations. However, it also found food inflation assist anchoring of expectations, while the non-food inflation doesn't. The results suggest the central bank to emphasize more on non-food inflation for better anchoring prospects. Additionally, the study identifies food inflation as the primary contributor to headline inflation variability.
Reinvigorating Gva Nowcasting In The Post-Pandemic Period: A Case Study For India, Kaustubh Na, Soumya Suvra Bhadury, Saurabh Ghosh
Reinvigorating Gva Nowcasting In The Post-Pandemic Period: A Case Study For India, Kaustubh Na, Soumya Suvra Bhadury, Saurabh Ghosh
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking
We reinvigorate nowcasting models considering structural changes caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. It emphasizes the need to understand the heterogeneous impact of shocks on agriculture, industry, and services sectors in an emerging market economy (e.g., India). Our findings advocate a bottom-up approach that tracks sectors separately rather than a headline number. Our results suggest including digital-activity index and supply-side disruption index in the post-pandemic period could improve nowcast performance. Expectation-Maximization (E-M) algorithm is used to combine data series based on their availability. Among bridging methods, the averaging method is preferred due to its simplicity and flexibility.
Digitalization And Economies Of Oic Countries, Mohsin Ali, Urooj Anwar, Mudeer Ahmed Khattak, Muhammad Umar Islam
Digitalization And Economies Of Oic Countries, Mohsin Ali, Urooj Anwar, Mudeer Ahmed Khattak, Muhammad Umar Islam
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking
This paper studies the impact of digitalization on the Organization of Islamic countries (OIC) economies. The study is conducted to see whether digitalization is playing its role in enhancing economic growth. We employ a panel dataset consisting of twenty-one years from 2000 to 2020 for 57 OIC countries. We use the system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator. The results indicate that digitalization positively impacts the economies of OIC countries. As for policy implication, this study recommends governments of OIC member countries to invest in digital infrastructure in order to foster economic growth.
Do Price Controlled Basic Food Items Affect Inflation In Fiji?, Joel Abraham, Akeneta Vonoyauyau, Seema W. Narayan Prof.
Do Price Controlled Basic Food Items Affect Inflation In Fiji?, Joel Abraham, Akeneta Vonoyauyau, Seema W. Narayan Prof.
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking
This note examines the effects of price-controlled perishable food items on inflation in Fiji. We study year-on-year changes in headline inflation and disaggregate measures of inflation in the form of food and non-alcoholic beverages and vegetables against three perishable food items used daily by Fijian households, namely, potatoes, onion, and garlic over the period 2019:01-2022:08. We also follow Narayan et al (2023), allowing for the lags and leads framework in examining Fiji’s inflation. Our results show that the leads and lags model explain 22%, 27% and 65% of headline, food and non-alcoholic beverages and vegetables inflation rates, respectively, over the …
How Global Value Chains Affect Economic Output And Unemployment: An Empirical Evidence From Asean Countries, Sri Juli Asdiyanti Samuda
How Global Value Chains Affect Economic Output And Unemployment: An Empirical Evidence From Asean Countries, Sri Juli Asdiyanti Samuda
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking
This paper examines the effects of Global Value Chains on economic output and unemployment in ten ASEAN countries from 1999 to 2018. This study provides estimation using the system GMM and panel causality test to determine the effect of GVC thoroughly. The results indicate a positive and significant effect of global value chains on economic output in ASEAN countries. However, the findings also show that global value chains increase unemployment during the observation period. Heterogenous panel non-causality findings suggest that economic output does not affect the level of participation of GVC, but unemployment affects the level of participation in ten …