Macroeconomics Commons^™

Essays On The Impact Of Monetary Policy Shocks, Rubaiyat Tasnim

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of two chapters.

Chapter 1 - Households’ Balance Sheet Adjustment in Response to Monetary Policy Shocks.

Household’s balance sheet and housing decision have played crucial role in understanding the transmission of monetary policy in the last two decades. Monetary policy can affect the broader economy through household finances via the income channel and the wealth channel, and especially of they are debt or liquidity constrained. This chapter studies the unhedged interest rate exposure (URE) following Auclert (2019) for households using micro-level data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey for the years 1994 to 2012. Using the URE, I …

Banking And The Wider Economy: Essays On Capital And Cross-Border Risks, Morgan Hunt

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Chapter 1: This paper examines the impact of growth in the banking industry’s capital and assets on real output growth at both aggregate and industry levels using a short-run factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) model across 19 NAICS two-digit industries from 2007Q1 to 2019Q4. Results reveal that changes in capital growth significantly affect output growth in the Manufacturing and Finance industries, while changes in risk-weighted assets impact the Construction, Manufacturing, Real Estate, and Transportation industries. Conversely, output growth in the Manufacturing and Retail Trade industries influences capital growth, while Wholesale Trade output growth affects risk-weighted assets. These relationships are robust …

Global Rate Pass Through: Impact Of The Global Savings Market On Home Prices In The Uk, Laxmi Namboodiri

Honors Theses

This paper examines how changes in the global savings and investment market impact housing prices and supply in the United Kingdom. I first constructed a global interest rate using principal component analysis. Then, using structural VARs, I estimate impulse response functions to study the dynamics of housing prices and supply in the UK with an impulse in the global interest rate. The model predicts that housing prices and supply will increase immediately and then decrease after a lag. The decrease is primarily driven by the years after the stock market crash as opposed to before.

Synthetic Statocracy - Pakistan’S Self-Created Inferno: Examining The Causes And Consequences Of Military Dominance In Pakistan, Umer Lakhani

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the history of military rule in Pakistan. Applying the framework of Johannes Gerschewski in The Three Pillars of Stability: Legitimation, Repression and Co-Optation in Autocratic Regimes, this paper looks to explain how military rulers who presided over the three periods of military rule in Pakistan consolidated and maintained their power, as well as the effects that these periods of rule had on Pakistani society. This paper will also supplement Gerschewski’s general framework by applying the findings of various established authors who have been published extensively on Pakistan’s political history, economy and relationship with the military. Such authors …

High ‘Steaks’: Does Lone Star Tick-Induced Red Meat Allergy Reduce Cardiovascular Disease-Related Hospitalizations?, Raj Parekh

CMC Senior Theses

In this thesis, I investigate the relationships between Lone Star Tick-induced Alpha-Gal Syndrome (AGS), red meat consumption, and cardiovascular health outcomes within New York State's 62 counties from 2012 to 2021. The analysis examines whether AGS, which forces individuals to reduce red meat consumption, serves as a natural experiment in understanding dietary impacts on cardiovascular disease (CVD). Leveraging panel data, I utilize Fixed Effects (FE) and Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) regression frameworks to disentangle the relationships between red meat expenditure, meat prices, Lone Star Tick prevalence, and health outcomes such as CVD, stroke, coronary heart disease, and heart attack hospitalization …

China’S Economic Slowdown: How Does It Affect New Zealand’S Economy?, Haven Qin

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the impact of China’s economic slowdown on New Zealand’s economy, focusing on sector-specific linkages across real estate, the stock market, exports, and import prices. As a small open economy, New Zealand’s deep integration with global markets makes it particularly vulnerable to external shocks from its largest trading partner. Employing OLS regression models and monthly economic data, this study reveals the nuanced pathways through which China’s economic conditions influence New Zealand. Key findings include the sensitivity of New Zealand’s housing market to Chinese property investments and Chinese stock market performance, the influence of Chinese financial market performance on …

When Consumers See It Coming: How Anticipation Affects The Domestic Cost Of Tariffs, Pierce D. Sanderson

CMC Senior Theses

Tariffs implemented by President Trump in 2018 were unexpected and significant, incurring large costs to U.S. consumers. This study examines the effect of tariff anticipation on price, quantity, and value effect on imports in the United States. Specifically, it focuses on tariffs implemented during Obama’s second term in office from 2012 to 2016 on the automotive, technology, and manufacturing industries. The findings present a significant divergence from the literature on the effects of 2018 tariffs, finding a near full pass-through of tariffs to foreign exporter prices rather than U.S. consumers. Specifically, a one percent increase in tariffs resulted in a …

The Uncertain Promise Of Foreign Bank Entry: Institutional Quality Effects On The Foreign Bank–Financial Inclusion Nexus, Jason Dedman

CMC Senior Theses

Despite the precipitous rise in foreign bank presence due to ever increasing financial globalization, the literature on the nexus between foreign banks and financial inclusion remains critically underdeveloped. This paper revisits the relationship between foreign bank presence and financial inclusion in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs), extending the methodology of Gopalan and Rajan (2018) by integrating updated ownership data from Panizza (2024) and introducing institutional quality as a moderating variable. Employing both fixed effects and system generalized method of moments on a panel dataset of 128 EMDEs, this study finds that foreign bank presence has a far more ambiguous effect …

Climate Change And Ski Resort Ownership Consolidation, Gabriel Yang

CMC Senior Theses

Based on a collected dataset of ski resort ownership records and localized climate data spanning 1920-2020, I analyze how environmental volatility affects firm-level outcomes. Using multinomial logit regression models, I examine whether changes in snowfall, precipitation, and temperature are associated with higher probabilities of acquisition, particularly by large conglomerates. Preliminary results suggest that climate volatility, specifically around minimum and maximum temperature, is becoming increasingly important in affecting ownership transfers. Resorts with higher volatility in warm-day temperatures are less likely to be acquired by both conglomerates and non-conglomerates, while cold volatility has become less important over time as snowmaking capabilities are …

The Counter-Cyclicality Of Earnings Management: Evidence Through 2024, William J. Hall

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and earnings management, extending the analysis of Hillegeist and Lin (2019) using updated data through 2024. Based on 16,635 firm-quarter observations, my study affirms the results found in prior literature and confirms that there is a negative association between the change in GDP and the direction of firms’ earnings management behavior, indicating that earnings management is counter-cyclical. My study also finds that firms manage earnings asymmetrically based on the current macroeconomic state, with firms managing earnings more in economic downturns and less in expansions. My findings suggest that despite major macroeconomic and …

Essays On The Labor Market Consequences Of Economic Uncertainty, Emographics, And Oil Price Shocks, Linli Zhao

Theses and Dissertations--Economics

This dissertation explores how economic uncertainty and oil price shocks influence the U.S. labor market, focusing on the roles of age distributions, manufacturing characteristics, and labor skills. Chapter One investigates how uncertainty and age distribution affect employment volatility across U.S. states using data from 2000 Q1 to 2017 Q4. The findings show that states with a larger share of prime-aged workers experience lower employment volatility in the face of economic uncertainty. Chapter Two examines how global oil shocks influence manufacturing job flows, drawing on data from the Annual Survey of Manufactures and the Census of Manufacturers between 1980 Q3 and …

Total Factor Productivity Industri Mikro Dan Kecil Di Kawasan Timur Indonesia, Marella Dea Manganti, Budyanra Budyanra

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

The Micro and Small Industries (MSIs) sector, part of non-oil and gas processing industry, is a key driver of the Indonesia’s economy. However, in Eastern Indonesia (EI), the number of industries and workers in the MSIs sector does not match the level of output, unlike in Western Indonesia, where the industry is more stable and aligned. This difference is mainly due to variations in technological progress, known as Total Factor Productivity (TFP). This study analyzes TFP in the MSIs sector across provinces in EI from 2013 to 2022 using panel data regression. Results show that South Sulawesi has the highest …

Simplified Regional-National Dsge Models For U.S. State-Level Analysis, Michael Telkamp

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This thesis develops a series of simplified Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model variants to analyze macroeconomic dynamics at the U.S. state level. Using South Dakota as a case study, I extend the Smets and Wouters (2007) mediumscale framework by implementing state-specific output, labor, consumption, investment, and wages into a dual-economy structure, where the state is modeled as a closed economy influenced by national-level shocks. The models are estimated using Bayesian techniques on quarterly data from 2007 - 2020. Model performance is evaluated through impulse response functions and variance decompositions. A key result is that South Dakota exhibits firm habit …

Three Essays On The Interaction Between Macroeconomics, Money, And Government Bonds, Zejun Jiang

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

This dissertation, ''Essays on the Interaction between Macroeconomics, Money, and Government Bonds,” has three chapters that study how macroeconomics (e.g., inflation), government bonds, and money interact with each other. It provides insights into how households make optimal maturity choices in government bonds, how households own different types of government bond assets, and how money growth can help understand the cross-country inflation after COVID-19.

The first chapter develops an intertemporal portfolio choice model to investigate the optimal household portfolio choice for government bonds across maturities. The U.S. Treasury data displays a higher holding share of long-term government bonds. Adding uncertain labor …

Maximum Trimmed Likelihood Estimation For Discrete Multivariate Vasicek Processes, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Michael Pokojovy, Andrews T. Anum, Ebenezer Nkum

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

The multivariate Vasicek model is commonly used to capture mean-reverting dynamics typical for short rates, asset price stochastic log-volatilities, etc. Reparametrizing the discretized problem as a VAR(1) model, the parameters are oftentimes estimated using the multivariate least squares (MLS) method, which can be susceptible to outliers. To account for potential model violations, a maximum trimmed likelihood estimation (MTLE) approach is utilized to derive a system of nonlinear estimating equations, and an iterative procedure is developed to solve the latter. In addition to robustness, our new technique allows for reliable recovery of the long-term mean, unlike existing methodologies. A set of …

Modeling Inflation Expectations In Forward-Looking Interest Rate And Money Growth Rules, Zhengyang Chen, Victor J. Valcarcel

Faculty Publications

We propose a novel approach that directly embeds rational expectations (RE) into a low-dimensional structural vector autoregression (SVAR) without the need for any mapping to a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Beginning from a fully specified “consensus” structural model, we establish an instrumental variable procedure internal to the SVAR to obtain RE-consistent structural responses to identified monetary policy shocks. Our RE-SVAR framework facilitates a comparison across two alternative monetary policy indicators that accommodate long horizons in the formation of inflation expectations in the policy rule. We construct clouds of responses of inflation and economic activity to monetary …

Migration And Youth Unemployment In Africa: Implications For The African Continental Free Trade Area (Afcfta), S.U.R Aliyu, Afees Adebare Salisu, Oyeyemi Kale

Journal of African Trade

This research explores the impact of migration within Africa on youth unemployment. The study makes two sig nificant contributions to existing literature. First, it investigates how intra-African migration can potentially support intra-African trade to enhance productivity and reduce youth unemployment. Second, it estimates the effects of intra African migration on male and female youth unemployment. The research methodology comprises using a two-level estimation involving the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) technique and a Two-Stage Least Squares approach addressing endogeneity bias. Furthermore, a Negative Binomial Maximum Likelihood estimator was utilized to test the model's robustness. The results indicate that higher per …

Civilian Manufacturing And National Defense: Strategic Planning For Globalization's Challenges, Izeck Kohler

Graduate Theses/Dissertations

This thesis examines the interconnection between civilian manufacturing and national defense within the context of globalization. The study aims to identify the challenges faced by the United States in maintaining its manufacturing capabilities and to propose strategic solutions to address these challenges. Through a comprehensive analysis of historical data, case studies, and policy recommendations, the research highlights the critical role of specialized and process manufacturing sectors towards national defense. The findings suggest that the creation of a federal executive department, strategic investment, diversification, policy re-evaluation, and collaborating with allies are essential for sustaining national defense capabilities. The study concludes with …

Deportations And Debt: How The Trump Administration’S Immigration Policies Affect The United States’ National Debt Situation, James D. Webster

Honors Theses and Capstones

The value of the United States’ national debt measured as a share of its economic output, otherwise known as its debt-to-GDP ratio, is projected to reach an all-time high and continue to climb over the span of the next 30 years. This can be attributed to a combination of tax and spending policies which generate annual budget deficits as well as a projected slowdown of economic growth. A major factor contributing to this situation is the slowing growth of the labor force in the United States. As time goes on, the growth of the U.S. population slows, and immigration becomes …

External Financing, Governance, And Infrastructure Development: Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa, Afees Oluwashina Noah, Oladipo Olalekan David

CSID Journal of Infrastructure Development

Infrastructure development in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) requires diversified financing strategies to address a significant funding shortfall that cannot be met by domestic resources alone. This research evaluates the contributions of external financing—namely Official Development Assistance (ODA), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and Private Participation in Infrastructure (PPI)—in complementing domestic efforts to advance infrastructure in SSA. It examines their influence, alongside governance, on the development of physical and social infrastructure components. Employing methodologies such as Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE) and System Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM) across 43 SSA economies from 2000 to 2022, the analysis reveals that FDI substantially enhances physical …

Effects Of Monetary Policy On Economic Growth: Evidence From Some Developing And Developed Economies, Collins Anosike

Journal of Global Awareness

The study examined the effects of monetary policy on the economic growth of some developing and developed economies. This study selected 33 countries grouped into 11 each as first-group, second-group, and third-group countries and showed how monetary policy has influenced their economic growth in the past 40 years, capturing the economic growth performances before and after the global financial crisis. This study is unique because it captures a broader range of countries compared to previous studies, uses updated data, and shows how monetary policy is transmitted through bank lending and financial intermediation. Furthermore, we use panel data and employ fixed …

The Impact Of Technological Change On Achieving Sustainable Development: Panel Data Analysis On Emerging Countries (2004-2024), Mayar Walid Al, Ahmed Tarek Ta

Future Journal of Social Science

This study examines the impact of technological change on sustainable development in five emerging economies—Egypt, China, Brazil, India, and Turkey—over the period from 2004 to 2024 (World Bank, 2020; ITU, 2022). It seeks to understand how advancements in information and communication technologies, renewable energy, and manufacturing processes shape economic, social, and environmental sustainability (Geels et al., 2017; UNEP, 2021). Using panel data analysis, the research quantifies the relationship between technological indicators, such as ICT penetration and renewable energy adoption, and sustainable development outcomes, including GDP growth, environmental health, and social inclusion (Sadorsky, 2010; Shahbaz et al., 2016).

The findings reveal …

Empowering Egyptian Women Through Social Media: A Comparative Analysis Of Economic Sustainability Campaigns By Banks On Facebook, Dr. Noura Eissa

Future Journal of Social Science

This comparative analytical study examines how Egyptian banks use Facebook to promote women’s economic empowerment by bridging between the disciples of economics, social media marketing, and gender studies. Media messages can substantially influence societal norms and perceptions of women's economic empowerment, leading them to open bank accounts and access services such as loans, credit cards, and online banking. The two banks under study are Banque Misr, a leading state-owned bank, and Commercial International Bank, which has international affiliations. The study employs a content analysis to evaluate Facebook messages published by these banks targeting women by exploring the appeals used, the …

Revealing The Dual Dynamics: Transient And Persistent Efficiencies Of The Indonesian Provincial Economies, Mohammad Zeqi Yasin, Fichrie Fachrowi Adli

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

We examine the decomposition of technical efficiency components into transient and persistent horizons applied to the 33 provincial economies in Indonesia. Focusing on the post-decentralization era in 2002–2022, we employ Stochastic Frontier Analysis to gauge efficiency dynamics for time-variant and time-invariant evolution. We reveal that the persistent inefficiencies outweigh transient ones, implying the persistent inefficient behavior of Indonesian provinces. We also capture that East Nusa Tenggara and several provinces in Eastern Indonesia show the most lagged-behind in terms of persistent inefficiency severity, suggesting necessity of structural changes through more strategic and specific development models beyond mere heterogeneous input reallocation.

How Millennials Make Investment Decisions: Financial Literacy And Financial Behavior, Dewi Tamara, Anita Maharani

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This study investigates the effect of financial literacy, financial attitude, risk perception, and financial behavior on investment decisions. Employing a survey method with 342 respondents in Jakarta, the findings reveal that financial literacy has a negative and insignificant effect on investment decisions. In contrast, risk perception plays a crucial role in influencing investment decisions. Furthermore, financial behavior has an indirect mediating effect between financial literacy and risk perception on investment decisions but does not affect financial attitude. This study concludes that risk perception and financial behavior are important factors in investment decisions. Future research may consider incorporating other variables such …

Striking A Balance: Market Shock & Responses In Automotive Components Manufacturing, Emma Lane Mcgahey

All Theses

This thesis examines the effects of extreme market shocks on supply chain dynamics within the automotive industry. Through an analysis of demand data from an automotive manufacturer to its component suppliers (January 2018 to May 2024), the study investigates the relationship between market shocks and supply chain responses, providing insights into how auto components inventory management handles downstream responses to market shocks. With supporting public data—from FRED, BLS, and the U.S. Census Bureau resources—we explore two primary relationships: the impact of market shocks on the Average Standard Deviation of Demand (SDO) and the effect of demand variability on expedited pricing …

Could Renewable Energy Use Boost Goods Export Performance In Asean?, Sherina Rafidah Khairunnisa, Siskarossa Ika Oktora

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

ASEAN economic integration increases trade opportunities and also triggers an increase in carbon emissions, especially from exports of goods. ASEAN needs to switch to renewable energy to improve the performance of goods exports. This study analyzes the influence of renewable energy on goods exports in ASEAN, 2010–2020. The results show that renewable energy positively impacts the performance of goods exports. Based on the results of this research, it is hoped that the government in each ASEAN country can strengthen regulations and policies on the use of renewable energy by providing incentives for producers and exporters who use renewable energy.

How Can Monetary Policy And Digitalization Enhance Economic Productivity Among Oic Members?, Basri Basri, Muhammad Akbar Ramadhani

Journal of Middle East and Islamic Studies

Studi ini bertujuan untuk menentukan dampak suku bunga, jumlah uang beredar, dan pengembangan TIK terhadap PDB per kapita dengan menggunakan pendekatan panel heterogen dinamis (panel ARDL) pooled mean group (PMG). Temuan kami menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan moneter memainkan peran penting bagi pendapatan per kapita di seluruh negara OKI pada tingkat pendapatan yang berbeda. Bagi OKI secara keseluruhan, suku bunga memiliki dampak positif dalam jangka panjang tetapi tidak berpengaruh dalam jangka pendek. Bagi sebagian besar LMIC dan UMIC, kenaikan suku bunga cenderung meningkatkan pendapatan per kapita, sedangkan bagi sebagian besar negara LIC, hubungannya negatif. Jumlah uang beredar memiliki dampak negatif terhadap pendapatan …

Interest Groups And Central Banking, Louis Rouanet, Michael Wroblewski

Hunt Institute Working Paper Series

This chapter offers an alternative approach to the public interest theory of central banking.Instead of interpreting the history of central banking as attempts to solve market failures, we suggest that central bank behavior can be best explained by studying the constraints faced by members of various interest groups, including members of the central banks themselves. Instead of looking uniquely at how private decisions in commercial markets shape central banks’ decisions, we argue that central bank behavior is best predicted when applying the tools of economics to politics, i.e., when using Public Choice.

The Role Of Demographic Change In Explaining Declining Labor Force Participation, Manoj Atolia, John Gibson, Felix Rioja

Hunt Institute Working Paper Series

The labor force participation rate has been declining in the United States since the late 1990s. Decomposing the aggregate labor force participation rate by age reveals that this decline is being driven by reduced participation among relatively young individuals, those aged 16 to 24. In fact, participation among older individuals, age 55 and above, has been increasing. In this paper, we develop a model in which individual decisions regarding schooling and retirement, in view of empirically observed changes in mortality, can simultaneously explain these three labor force participation trends. Furthermore, a counterfactual scenario that accounts for the observed demographic trends …