Macroeconomics Commons^™

Macroeconomic Effects And Microeconomic Determinants Of Fertility, Maria R. Apostolova-Mihaylova

Theses and Dissertations--Economics

This dissertation focuses on the relationship between the education-based fertility gap and economic growth and on policy as a determinant of fertility.

In the first essay I evaluate the impact of differential fertility (the difference between fertility rates of women with high educational attainment and women with low educational attainment) on economic growth by accounting for critical marginal effects and the general level of educational attainment in a given country. I also examine the possibility that this effect varies based on level of inequality and income levels. I find that for a less developed country with high income inequality, higher …

More Eigenvalue Math Notes, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Folder Cover Label
  Shaikh, A. (2014). NA-24-07. Department of Economics, New School for Social Research.This item is a folder cover label that marks research materials on economic matrix calculations.
• Handwritten Research Notes
  Shaikh, A. (2014). Price variations and classical price setting. Department of Economics, New School for Social Research.This item contains handwritten notes evaluating price variation and classical price setting based on the theories of David Ricardo, Karl Marx, and Piero Sraffa.
• Flight Booking Confirmation
  British Airways. (2014). London to Naples flight confirmation. British Airways.This item is a travel itinerary sheet detailing a flight …

Does U.S. Macroeconomic News Make Emerging Financial Markets Riskier?, Esin Cakan, Nadia Doytch, Kamal P. Upadhyaya

Publications and Research

This study analyzes the impacts of US macroeconomic announcement surprises on the volatility of twelve emerging stock markets by employing asymmetric GJR-GARCH model. The model includes both positive and negative surprises about inflation and unemployment rate announcements in the U.S. We find that volatility shocks are persistent and asymmetric. Asymmetric volatility increases with bad news on US inflation in five out of the twelve countries studied and it increases with a bad news on U.S. unemployment in four out of twelve countries. Asymmetric volatility decreases with good news about US employment situation in eight countries out of twelve countries. Such …

Quantitative Easing's Effect On Shadow Banking: Have Federal Reserve Purchases Caused A Collateral Shortage In The Repurchase Agreement Market?, Amanda A. Schaible

Scripps Senior Theses

Since the start of the financial crisis in 2008, the Federal Reserve has been engaging in quantitative easing. Quantitative easing is a form of open market operation in which the Federal Reserve buys long-term U.S. government and other securities, versus traditional open market operations that occur through the short-term Treasury bill market. At the same time, the shadow bank system, which is a system of financial intermediaries that perform unregulated credit intermediation outside of traditional banks, has contracted significantly. Some argue that this contraction is due to a collateral crunch induced by quantitative easing in the shadow bank system—a crunch …

Coexistence Of Gm, Conventional And Organic Food Not Always Possible, Konstantinos Giannakas

CAFIO: Policy Research Group Policy Pagers

The coexistence of genetically modified (GM) products with their conventional and organic counterparts has been one of the most scrutinized issues surrounding the introduction of products of agricultural biotechnology into the agri-food system. Fears that the widespread adoption of GM products will drive their conventional (and, perhaps, organic) counterparts out of the market have been countered by arguments that their presence enhances the equilibrium product variety in the market. Central to the argument is, of course, the possibility of coexistence of GM, conventional and organic products with the main focus having been on farm production systems and the prospect of …

Gmos And Iprs Are Key Weapons In Fight Against Hunger, Konstantinos Giannakas

CAFIO: Policy Research Group Policy Pagers

The introduction of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) into the food system and the assignment of intellectual property rights (IPRs) for plant genetic resources are among the most notable features of the increasingly industrialized agri-food marketing system of numerous developed and developing countries around the world. IPRs have provided innovating firms with incentives to aggressively pursue improvements of crop characteristics (such as herbicide tolerance, insect and virus resistance, drought tolerance and increased nutritional value) through gene splicing techniques, and the agronomic benefits associated with the genetically modified (GM) products have resulted in their embrace by a significant number of agricultural producers …

Ad Hoc Disaster And Crop Insurance Programs May Reduce The Use Of Risk-Reducing Conservation Tillage Practices, Karina Schoengold, Ya Ying, Russell Headlee

CAFIO: Policy Research Group Policy Pagers

There is growing concern that the risks facing agricultural producers are increasing due to several factors that include the predicted effects of climate change leading to more frequent floods, droughts, and higher temperatures as well greater use of agricultural outputs for nonfood energy products.

These risks are partially managed through federal agricultural programs. Ad hoc disaster payments have frequently been used to provide financial support.

The Liberalization Of Shibor And The Economic Fundamentals Of House Price Growth In China, Michael J. Mavredakis

CMC Senior Theses

This paper uses data collected from the National Interbank Funding Center of China, the People’s Bank of China, the National Bureau of Statistics, and Bloomberg starting in October 2006 through 2013 to test the economic fundamental’s affecting the housing market in Shanghai, particularly interest rates. This study finds that the 6- month duration Shibor has a negative and significant correlation with house price growth in Shanghai when lagged 4 months. The analysis continues by examining other economic fundamentals affecting house price growth, finding growth in inflation, the money supply and Shanghai real estate investment to have significant, positive relationships with …

Mergers & Abenomics: The Determinants Of M&A In Japan's New Economy, Ethan S. Hallberg

CMC Senior Theses

This paper investigates the influence of various macroeconomic variables on Japan’s merger and acquisition (M&A) activity, both in terms of total deal value and total number of deals. Looking at monthly data from June 1997 to December 2013, I use econometric time-series analysis to find that: First, total deal value per month is not well explained by our macroeconomic variables, but about half of the variation in number of deals per month can be explained by our dataset. Second, the most important determinant in the total number of deals per month during our period is the level of national debt, …

Macroeconomic Variables Effect On Us Market Volatility Using Mc-Garch Model, Jang Hyung Cho, Ahmed Elshahat

Faculty Publications

Forecasting equity volatility was thoroughly investigated during the past three decades. The majority based their forecasts on the dynamics of the underlying equity time series. They helped better understand the dynamics of these time series and understand different aspects of volatility. Other models went a step further to include the effect of news announcement on equity volatility. The vast majority ignored the effect of macroeconomic variable or the state of the economy. This paper proposes a volatility-forecasting model that accounts for effect of fundamental macroeconomic variables that reflect the state of the economy. The explanatory variables used measure the stage …

The Coordination Value Of Monetary Exchange: Experimental Evidence, Gabriele Camera, Marco Casari

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

What institutions can sustain cooperation in groups of strangers? Here we study the role of monetary systems. In an experiment, subjects sometimes needed help and sometimes could incur a cost to help an anonymous counterpart. In the absence of money, the intertemporal exchange of help, which could be supported by a norm of community punishment of defectors, did not emerge. Introducing intrinsically worthless tokens substantially altered patterns of behavior. Monetary trade emerged, which increased predictability of play and promoted cooperation when strangers could trade help for a token.

Understanding The Distributional Impact Of Long-Run Inflation, Gabriele Camera, Yili Chen

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

The impact of fully anticipated inflation is systematically studied in heterogeneous agent economies with an endogenous labor supply and portfolio choices. In stationary equilibrium, inflation nonlinearly alters the endogenous distributions of income, wealth, and consumption. Small departures from zero inflation have the strongest impact. Three features determine how inflation impacts distributions and welfare: financial structure, shock persistence, and labor supply elasticity. When agents can self-insure only with money, inflation reduces wealth inequality but may raise consumption inequality. Otherwise, inflation reduces consumption inequality but may raise wealth inequality. Given persistent shocks and an inelastic labor supply, inflation may raise average welfare. …

Short-Term Inflation Forecasting Models For Nigeria, Sani I. Doguwa, Sarah O. Alade

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Short-term inflation forecasting is an essential component of the monetary policy projections at the Central Bank of Nigeria. This paper proposes four short-term headline inflation forecasting models using the SARIMA and SARIMAX processes and compares their performance using the pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting procedure over July 2011 to September 2013. According to the results the best forecasting performance is demonstrated by the model based on the all items CPI estimated using the SARIMAX model. This model is, therefore, recommended for use in short-term forecasting of headline inflation in Nigeria. The forecasting performance up to eight months ahead, of the models based on …

Subsidizing Non-Polluting Goods Vs. Taxing Polluting Goods For Pollution Reduction, Robert S. Main

Scholarship and Professional Work - Business

Pigovian taxes on polluters are politically unpopular, but subsidies for non-polluting sources are politically attractive. This paper presents a linear demand and supply model and numerical example to explore the trade-offs between taxing polluting sources of a good versus subsidizing non-polluting sources of the same good. While the model (along with the associated numerical example) shows the optimality of Pigovian taxes, it also shows how much welfare is reduced if subsidies for nonpolluters are employed instead. Further, it shows the optimal tax, given any level of subsidy and the optimal subsidy, given any level of tax.

An Efficient Two Sample Capture-Recapture Model With High Recaptures, Danjuma Jibasen, Yusuf J. Adams

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper proposed an efficient two sample capture-recapture model (Ma) with high recaptures and compared it with the existing models like the model of no factor effect (Mo), behavioral response model (Mb) and the Petersen model (Ms), using simulated data. We found that the Petersen model provides a better estimate of the population size when the observations follow a hypergeometric distribution and the population is overestimated when recapture is high. It was also found that the proposed model provides a better estimator of the population size than the existing ones when the recapture is high. This model is particularly useful …

Causal Relationship Between Stock Market Index And Exchange Rate: Evidence From Nigeria, Abdulrasheed Zubair

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper uses Johansen’s cointegration to test for the possibility of cointegration and Granger-causality to estimate the causal relationship between stock market index and monetary indicators (exchange rate and M2) before and during the global financial crisis for Nigeria, using monthly data for the period 2001–2011. Results suggest absence of long-run relationship before and during the crisis. The Granger-causality tests show a uni-directional causality running from M2 to ASI before the crisis while during the period of the crisis there is absence of causality between the variables. This suggests that ASI show responsiveness to M2. Thus, absence of the direct …

Investigating Chaos In The Nigerian Asset And Resource Management (Arm) Discovery Fund, Ibiyinka A. Fuwape, Samuel T. Ogunjo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates chaos in a Nigerian mutual fund, Asset and Resource Management Company Limited (ARM) for a period of eleven years. The existence of chaotic signals in the data was identified by the reconstruction of the phase space of the daily closing price of the fund and the delay time was quantified using mutual information function and the embedding dimension by the false nearest neighbours, where the values were identified to be 15 and 20 respectively. The presence of chaotic signals in the ARM data was further confirmed by the correlation dimension method which yielded a dimension of 2.2 …

Modeling The Nigerian Inflation Rates Using Periodogram And Fourier Series Analysis, Chukwuemeka O. Omekara,, Emmanuel J. Ekpenyong, Micheal P. Ekerete

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This work considers the application of Periodogram and Fourier Series Analysis to model all-items monthly inflation rates in Nigeria from 2003 to 2011. The main objectives are to identify inflation cycles, fit a suitable model to the data and make forecasts of future values. To achieve these objectives, monthly all-items inflation rates for the period were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) website. Periodogram and Fourier series methods of analysis are used to analyze the data. Based on the analysis, it was found that inflation cycle within the period was fifty one (51) months, which coincides with the …

Nigerian Stock Index: A Search For Optimal Garch Model Using High Frequency Data, Olaoluwa Simon Yaya

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper attempts to fit the best Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) model for All Share Index (ASI) of Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) returns. A search is made on various GARCH variants specified on the assumptions of stationarity and asymmetry. Fractionally integrated types are also considered to capture the possibility of return series having property of long range dependency. The parameter estimations are carried out on the assumptions of normality and non-normality of GARCH innovations, with models and forecasts evaluated using information criteria and loss functions respectively. Under normality assumption, Hyperbolic GARCH (HYGARCH(1,d,1)) model is selected and Integrated GARCH (IGARCH(1,1)) …

Time Series Modeling Of Nigeria External Reserves, Iheanyichukwu S. Iwueze, Eleazar C. Nwogu, Valentine U. Nlebedim

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper discusses the levels and trend of external reserves in Nigeria. The relevance of this lies in the fact that it could help to monitor the reserves and throw early warning signal about any economic crisis. Monthly data on Nigeria external reserves for the period January 1999 to December, 2008 derived from the 2008 CBN Statistical Bulletin was analyzed using ARIMA model. Results of the analyses show that (i) the data requires logarithmic transformation to stabilize the variance and make the distribution normal (ii) the appropriate model that best describes the pattern in the transformed data is the Autoregressive- …

A Markov Decision Process Approach To Optimal Control Of A Multi-Level Hierarchical Manpower System, Akaninyene U. Udom

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

A recurrent problem in manpower control is how to attain the desired structural configuration in an optimal way, since it is possible to reach a desired structural configuration using different control inputs. The major aim of this paper is to develop a Markov Decision Process for optimal control of a Multi-level Hierarchical Manpower System (MHMS) by promotion and interdepartmental transfers. This is examined under control by intervention and contraction cost Markov Decision Process.

Minimum Investment Requirement, Financial Integration And Economic (In)Stability: A Refinement To Matsuyama (2004), Haiping Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This note proposes a simple, more precise, necessary condition for symmetry breaking in Matsuyama (Financial Market Globalization, Symmetry-Breaking, and Endogenous Inequality of Nations, Econometrica, 2004 ), i.e., the positive interest rate response to income changes, which essentially arises from the assumptions of financial frictions and minimum investment size requirement of individual projects. This condition also holds under the more general settings. Thus, this note o ers an empirically testable hypothesis, i.e., Matsuyama's symmetry breaking is more likely, if the interest rate response to income changes is positive and sufficiently large.

Detecting Bubbles In Hong Kong Residential Property Market, Matthew S. Yiu, Jun Yu, Lu Jin

Research Collection School Of Economics

This study uses a newly developed bubble detection method (Phillips, Shi, and Yu, 2011) to identify real estate bubbles in the Hong Kong residential property market. Our empirical results reveal several positive bubbles in the Hong Kong residential property market, including one in 1995, a stronger one in 1997, yet another one in 2004, and a more recent one in 2008. In addition, the method identifies two negative bubbles in the data, one in 2000 and the other one in 2001. These empirical results continue to be valid for the mass segment and the luxury segment. However, this method has …

Do Major League Baseball Hitters Engage In Opportunistic Behavior?, Heather M. O'Neill

Business and Economics Faculty Publications

This study focuses on 256 Major League Baseball free agent hitters playing under the 2006–2011 collective bargaining agreement to determine whether players engage in opportunistic behavior in their contract year, i.e., the last year of their current guaranteed contracts. Past studies of professional baseball yield conflicting results depending on the econometric technique applied and choice of performance measure. When testing whether players’ offensive performances increase during their contract year, the omitted variable bias associated with OLS and pooled OLS estimation leads to contrary results compared to fixed effects modeling. Fixed effects regression results suggest players increase their offensive performance subject …

Macroeconomic And Political Determinants Of Foreign Direct Investment In The Middle East, Robin Barnaby Calver

Dissertations and Theses

This study argues that governments with sustained GDP growth, open markets, low country risk, high levels and low standard deviation of government performance, and few or no occurrences of war, will see larger levels of foreign direct investment (FDI) over time. Scholarship on the determinants of FDI variously argues the influence of GDP growth, the openness of a country's economy, a government's level of political capacity, the level of country risk, and the negative effects of inter-, intra- and extrastate conflict. These studies on the various effects on FDI, while providing insightful and substantial statistical results, fail to capture the …

Policy Responses In An Unstable Globalized Economy: Multi-Stressed Low-Earning Families In Singapore, Irene Y. H. Ng, Kong Weng Ho

Research Collection School Of Economics

The Singapore government responded swiftly to the 2008 global recession, doling out a range of policies in aid of all levels of wage earners. This paper explores the impacts of economic trends and government policies on low-wage earners. Using a theoretical model and empirical data from a pilot study of recipients of a government Work Support Program, it demonstrates the effects of socioeconomic factors on multi-stressed low-earning families. It discusses the adequacy of current policies in addressing the multiple stressors experienced by low-wage earners.

Study Of Economic Development Of Pakistan Through Stock Market: Causal Relationship Of Stock Prices And Macroeconomic Indicators, Rizwan Raheem Ahmed, Yaseen Ahmed Meenai, Fazal Hussain

Business Review

The purpose of the research is to examine the causal relationship between stock prices and the variables representing the real sector of the economy for example real GDP, and real investment, in Pakistan. In this study, annual data is used (quarter-wise) from December 1980 to June 2007 and the correlation analysis has been applied, to investigate the relationship. For better understanding of the Market’s Behavior, data has been grouped in to Liberalization periods; Preliberalization and Post-Liberalization. The stock market in Pakistan provides an average quarterly return of 2.86%.The average annual growths in real variables are just lower than 1% for …

Governance & Sustainability: Does Democracy Beggar Thy Future?, Nathanael D. Peach

Faculty Publications - College of Business

Findings:

An increase in political stability:

• Higher levels of natural resource depletion
• Higher levels of adjusted net savings (ANS) i.e. contributes positively to sustainable growth

Increase in democracy:

• Lower levels of natural resource depletion
• Impact on sustainability is conditional on the economic and political context

Transition To Full-Fledged Inflation Targeting: A Proposed Programme For Implementation By The Central Bank Of Nigeria, Michael O. Ojo

CBN Occasional Papers

This paper attempts to provide an input into addressing these issues, especially as regards resolving the technical, administrative and practical problems for a transition to inflation targeting as a framework for monetary policy in Nigeria. Specifically, the main purpose of this paper is to outline proposals that would permit the CBN transit successfully to full-fledged inflation targeting (FFIT) for its monetary policy operations. Following the introduction (Section 1), the paper is organized as follows: Section 2 examines the conceptual framework, focusing on the essential elements and modalities of different monetary policy frameworks. Section 3 contains an overview of the experiences …

An Analysis Of The Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism And The Real Economy In Nigeria, Eddy C. Ndekwu

CBN Occasional Papers

The study is an empirical analysis which seeks to explain the monetary policy transmission mechanism to the real economy in Nigeria. It examines the process by which the interest rate policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria actually affects the structure of interest rates, credit, aggregate demand and output production and, hence, changes in inflation rate. In the analysis, we review the paradigm of the channels of monetary policy transmission mechanism by studying over two and-half dozen cases of empirical studies in the economic literature. By applying vector auto-regression (VAR) with dynamic logarithmic form and the ordinary least squares (OLS) …