Econometrics Commons^™

Lag Length Selection In Panel Autoregression, Chirok Han, Peter C. B. Phillips, Donggyu Sul

Research Collection School Of Economics

Model selection by BIC is well known to be inconsistent in the presence of incidental parameters. This article shows that, somewhat surprisingly, even without fixed effects in dynamic panels BIC is inconsistent and overestimates the true lag length with considerable probability. The reason for the inconsistency is explained, and the probability of overestimation is found to be 50% asymptotically. Three alternative consistent lag selection methods are considered. Two of these modify BIC, and the third involves sequential testing. Simulations evaluate the performance of these alternative lag selection methods in finite samples.

Joint Spatial Time Series Epidemiological Analysis Of Malaria And Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Infection, O. A. Adegboye, M. Al-Saghir, Denis H. Y. Leung

Research Collection School Of Economics

Malaria and leishmaniasis are among the two most important health problems of many developing countries especially in the Middle East and North Africa. It is common for vector-borne infectious diseases to have similar hotspots which may be attributed to the overlapping ecological distribution of the vector. Hotspot analyses were conducted to simultaneously detect the location of local hotspots and test their statistical significance. Spatial scan statistics were used to detect and test hotspots of malaria and cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in Afghanistan in 2009. A multivariate negative binomial model was used to simultaneously assess the effects of environmental variables on malaria …

The Paradox Of Power: Principal-Agent Problems And Fiscal Capacity In Absolutist Regimes, Debin Ma, Jared Rubin

ESI Working Papers

Tax extraction in Qing China was low relative to Western Europe. It is not obvious why: China was much more absolutist and had stronger rights over property and people. Why did the Chinese not convert their absolute power into revenue? We propose a model, supported by historical evidence, which suggests that i) the center could not ask its tax collecting agents to levy high taxes because it would incentivize agents to overtax the peasantry; ii) the center could not pay agents high wages in return for high taxes because the center had no mechanism to commit to refrain from confiscating …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- February 2017, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Deviance Information Criterion For Bayesian Model Selection: Justification And Variation, Yong Li, Jun Yu, Tao Zeng

Research Collection School Of Economics

Deviance information criterion (DIC) has been extensively used for making Bayesian model selection. It is a Bayesian version of AIC and chooses a model that gives the smallest expected Kullback-Leibler divergence between the data generating process (DGP) and a predictive distribution asymptotically. We show that when the plug-in predictive distribution is used, DIC can have a rigorous decision-theoretic justification under regularity conditions. An alternative expression for DIC, based on the Bayesian predictive distribution, is proposed. The new DIC has a smaller penalty term than the original DIC and is very easy to compute from the MCMC output. It is invariant …

Investing In The Presence Of Massive Flows, Terence C. Burnham, Harry Gakidis, Jeffrey Wurgler

ESI Working Papers

Approximately $10 trillion is benchmarked to Morgan Stanley Capital International’s Developed, Emerging, Frontier, and standalone market indexes. Reclassifications from one index to another require thousands of investors to decide how to react. We study a comprehensive sample of past reclassifications to guide this decision. Reclassified markets’ prices substantially overshoot between the announcement and effective dates—prices fall when a market moves from an index with more benchmarked ownership to one with less, such from Emerging to Frontier, and vice-versa—but revert within a year. We identify alpha-maximizing responses to reclassifications for both tightly benchmarked and more flexible investors.

Fdi And Income Inequality In Latin America, Terese Coulon

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

The main purpose of this paper is to determine the relationship between FDI and income inequality in Latin America after Operation Condor. This study uses economic panel data from seven different Latin American countries over a sixteen year time period. This study takes place from 1982 to 1997. Other variables have been included in this study to achieve the most accurate results possible. The results from this study show that FDI is significant to income inequality at the 5% significance level in Latin America during this time period. Also, the results indicate that FDI has a positive effect on income …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- January 2017, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Giving Economic Data A Voice, Singapore Management University

Research@SMU: Connecting the Dots

Professor Su Liangjun is developing new techniques in econometrics to provide a more realistic understanding of the economy.

See the papers:

• Testing homogeneity in panel data models with interactive fixed effects
• Identifying latent structures in panel data
• Shrinkage estimation of dynamic panel data models with interactive fixed effects

The Race Against Time, Singapore Management University

Research@SMU: Connecting the Dots

Professor Tse Yiu Kuen is developing econometric models that can provide us with a clearer picture of global markets.

See the papers:

• Estimation of high-frequency volatility: An autoregressive conditional duration approach
• Intraday periodicity adjustments of transaction duration and their effects on high-frequency volatility estimation;
• Intraday value-at-risk: An asymmetric autoregressive conditional duration approach

Income Inequality In Latin America And The Caribbean: Inefficient Labor Markets And Remnants Of Racism, Vivian Tejada

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper aims to explore the key reasons as to why income inequality in Latin America is so vast. The study will investigate the various manners in which labor markets operate throughout Latin America and attempt to draw a connection between labor market inefficiency and income inequality keeping in mind the regions tumulus history with racism. Factors considered in this assessment are rate of income levels, unemployment, GDP p/capita, educational attainment, and age of labor force. The factors are accounted for in a regression model to examine the level of influence labor markets and race have on income inequality.

Effects Of Drought Conditions On Agricultural Productivity In Central And Western Tennessee, Sean Erwin

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper analyzes the relationship between agricultural productivity of farms in drought conditions. The variables used in this research include fertilizer expense, precipitation totals, and average temperature. The model integrates all of the mentioned variables and finds the connection between the land value of farms and the variables. The outcomes show that both fertilizer expense and precipitation have negative relationships to land values for farms, while average temperature has a positive relationship.

Fiscal Policy And Its Effects On Economic Growth, Jordan J. Smith

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the impact of fiscal policy on economic growth during the time horizons of 1985, 1998, and 2014. Using cross country data from a minimum of 37 countries, it is found that international trade taxes share a partial correlation with economic growth. The magnitude of this relationship is found to be positive during all time horizons, and is diminishing over time. Estimates from 2014 suggest that a 10 percentage point increase in a country’s international trade tax will grant that country a .6% increase to their economic growth rate.

An Empirical Analysis On The Effects Of Fbs College Football Success On Undergraduate Enrollment From 2000 To 2014, Liam Rice

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the theoretical connection between FBS College Football success and the undergraduate enrollment of schools in the Northeastern United States. With multiple texts qualitatively discussing the positive effects a winning football culture has on the amount of applicants an institution receives, this study attempts, using panel data, to discover quantitative connections in this field. Utilizing data from over 19 FBS colleges and universities from 2000 to 2014, this study finds that there is a significant, positive connection between undergraduate application rates and football wins, as well as championships. This study lays the foundation for future studies into the …

Does Economic Freedom Promote Standard Of Living Across Countries With Different Income Levels?, George Ossei

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the possibility of a relationship between economic freedom and standard of living across countries with different income classifications. The study incorporates population with access to improved water supply sources, sanitation facilities, electricity and the internet, as well as foreign aid into the Kosack model of aid effectiveness. This is done in order to examine their effects on HDI.

Factors That Influence Economic Growth In Brics Member Countries And Oecd Developed Countries: A Panel Data Analysis, Xuran Zhang

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the factors that affect economic growth in developed nations, such as the U.S., the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Australia and others. It also includes developing countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). This study incorporates several independent variables to examine their influence on economic growth in these two groups of nations. The study looks at contributing factors for economic growth, such as life expectancy, primary education, secondary education, expected import, expected export, population growth rate, FDI level, and public expenditure, using macro-level data from two sources: the World Bank and the Organization of …

The Effects Of Foreign Aid On Income Inequality In Africa, Sierra Moore

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper examines the correlation between donations of foreign aid given to African countries and the income inequality, measured using the Gini coefficient, within those countries. A panel method is used in order to analyze trends in a number of countries over a period of time. The independent variables in this study are official developmental assistance, income group, inflation measured by CPI, polity, GDP per capita growth, and population growth. The results of this study show a negative relationship between foreign aid and income inequality, which is consistent with recent studies on the effectiveness of aid.

The Effects Of Tax Rates, Technology, And Quality Of Life On Standard Of Living In Developed Countries, Benjamin Jackson

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the relationship between tax rates, technology, and the quality of life on the standard of living in developed countries over time. The study uses an econometric model to understand and quantify these relationships. Standard of living will be measured by PPP GDP in this study. The results show the most significant variables that impact the standard of living are life expectancy at birth, openness to trade, the domestic savings rate, and corruption.

Education Spending And The Lottery In The Western United States: A Panel Data Analysis, Erica Vendituoli

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the relationship between the existence of a state lottery and state education spending. When consumers participate in the lottery, it is often with the assumption that even if they lose, their money will be contributed to state funded programs like education. This study looks at ten states in the west that have a variety of lottery circumstances. Both education expenditure as a percent of total state expenditure and per pupil aid are used to measure education funding. This research also incorporates multiple independent variables to fully capture the determinants of education spending. The results of this study …

The Effects Of The Affordable Care Act’S Individual Mandate On Ethnic And Racial Minorities, Zack Cyr

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper examines the quantitative impact of the Affordable Care Act’s (ACA) individual mandate on health insurance coverage rates. This study will include race, ethnicity, and immigration status into a conventional model for predicting insurance coverage rates. This will illustrate the groups in the US population that may have been most influenced by the individual mandate, and potentially experienced the largest changes in coverage rates under the ACA. The data utilized in this research is in two pools, 2010-2011 and 2013-2014, as these are the years preceding the ACA’s implementation and directly after. The results reveal that while there was …

Effects Of Globalization On Inequality In Latin America, Andrew T. Kebalka

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper explores the relationship between globalization and inequality in Latin American countries. The study uses a number of different globalization indicators in conjunction with the globalization index developed by Dreher (2006). The study works to identify whether globalization has effect income equality and whether specific components of globalization have a greater magnitude of impact on inequality over others within the region. The conclusion of the study is that GDP per capita, foreign direct investment, and trade intensity have the greatest effects on income inequality.

Banking Subsector Output And Real Gdp Growth In The United States: A Time Series Analysis, Alexander Ellwanger

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This study investigates which variables in the banking subsector in the United States may have a statistically significant relationship with Real GDP. Taking into consideration the Bureau of Economic Analysis method of calculating banking output from 2004, this study carefully evaluates key variables that contribute to the banking sector and whether these key variables are statistically significant in any way that can help guide investors, policymakers, and the government in the growing challenge to maintain economic stability in the United States. This study found that there was a statistically significant relationship between Tier 1 Risk Based Capital and Real GDP …

Corruption’S Impact On Government Health And Education Expenditures, Shaun Rolph

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

The purpose of this paper it to identify how corruption can impact government expenditures, specifically education as a percentage of GDP, educational as a percentage of total government expenditures, health as a percentage of GDP, and health as a percentage of total government expenditures. The independent variables in which will be used for this model are: Corruption Perception Index, Worldwide Governance Indicators, and Polity IV. Through the time period of 2005 to 2014, this research is a global panel study that looks at income group and regional analysis. Comparisons will be made from the correlation of the variables between country …

Evaluation Of Monetary, Fiscal And External Inflationary Sources In Nigeria, Samson A. Aladejare

Journal for the Advancement of Developing Economies

This study focuses on evaluating the monetary, fiscal and external inflationary sources in Nigeria. The Auto-Regressive Distributive Lag estimation technique was adapted to capture these effects. Empirical findings of the study showed that overall, the main determining cause of inflation in both short run and long run periods in Nigeria, are more of monetary and external factors and less of fiscal sources. Specifically, the problem of inflation in Nigeria appears to be more of structural phenomenon than monetary in the short run. However, in the long run, combinations of monetary and external factors tend to be the major cause of …

Land Tenure, Governance And Accountability In Nigeria: The Implications On Food Production To Feed The Present And The Future, Abiodun E. Obayelu, Aisha O. Arowolo, Olatokunbo H. Osinowo

Journal for the Advancement of Developing Economies

Land is very vital for agricultural production, and for any nation that wants to be self-food sufficient. Different land reforms have taken place in Nigeria since 1960 with the aim of facilitating access to agricultural land, and make the nation self-sufficient in food production, but little changes have only been recorded. Bureaucracy by approving authorities in practice in communities where land is situated still hinders land acquisition for agricultural investment. This study therefore analyzes land policy, governance and accountability and draw out some implications on food production in Nigeria. The percentage of arable land to the total land area was …

Internal Control Activities As A Tool For Financial Management In The Public Sector: A Case Study Of Ghana Post Company Limited, Kwakye E. Agyapong

Journal for the Advancement of Developing Economies

The case, Ghana Post Company Limited, allows for the observation of internal control activities as a tool for financial management in the public sector. The objective of the research is to examine the control environment of the Ghana Post Company to ensure there is segregation of duties, proper information and communication between employees and management; and monitoring of the policies implemented by management. The sample size of 36 included individuals from all of the departments within the company. The departments are Auditing and Finance, Human Resource, Mail and Parcels, and Financial Services. The work established had continued lapses in the …

Examining Renewable Energy And Economic Growth: Evidence From 22 Oecd Countries, David Neitzel

Honors Program Theses

A growing amount of electricity is produced from renewable sources. For this reason, it is important to understand the effect that this developing industry has on economic growth. This paper examines this relationship between economic growth and renewable energy consumption within a multivariate framework using a panel of 22 OECD countries over the period 1995-2012. The results of the Fully-Modified Least Squares regression indicate a statistically significant, albeit small, negative relationship between real GDP and renewable energy. Granger Causality tests indicate bidirectional causality running between GDP and renewable energy. The small effect of renewable energy on growth implies that policies …

An Outlay Equivalence Analysis Of South African Households, Samuel Peevey

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

A significant amount of evidence suggests that gender inequality in the developing world negatively impacts women and girls’ health, education and future wage potential. This thesis investigates whether households in South Africa discriminated against their girl children, in favor of their boy children. Additionally, I will investigate whether household heads favored children matching their own sex. Using the 1^st wave of the National Income Dynamics Study and Angus Deaton’s outlay-equivalence ratio method, I will estimate the impact, 8 age and sex categories have on their household’s adult goods expenditure. I found statistically significant but practically insignificant evidence, from a …

Growth Performance Of Transition Countries After 25 Years, Alena Kalodzitsa

Masters Theses

The present study provides with the most recent summary of growth performance in transition countries after 25 years since the change of the regime. The empirical analysis estimates growth, applying Generalized Least Squares (GLS) estimation technique using a panel of 26 transition countries for the period of 25 transition years (1990-2014). Empirical findings of this study confirm that growth performance can be explained by the degree of structural reforms, stabilization, and initial conditions along with other factors (external growth, regional tensions, government expenditure, and oil balance). Even if initial conditions are important for growth, its influence consistently declines.

The transition …

Accounting For Locational, Temporal, And Physical Similarity Of Residential Sales In Mass Appraisal Modeling: The Development And Application Of Geographically, Temporally, And Characteristically Weighted Regression, Paul E. Bidanset, Michael Mccord, John R. Lombard, Peadar Davis, William J. Mccluskey

School of Public Service Faculty Publications

Geographically weighted regression (GWR) has been recognized in the assessment community as a viable automated valuation model (AVM) to help overcome, at least in part, modeling hurdles associated with location, such as spatial heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation of error terms. Although previous researchers have adjusted the GWR weights matrix to also weight by time of sale or by structural similarity of properties in AVMs, the research described in this paper is the first that has done so by all three dimensions (i.e., location, structural similarity, and time of sale) simultaneously. Using 24 years of single-family residential sales in Fairfax, Virginia, …