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Full-Text Articles in Econometrics

Business Cycle Downturn Estimation For Ciudad Juarez: 1991-2022, Steven L. Fullerton, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. Aug 2023

Business Cycle Downturn Estimation For Ciudad Juarez: 1991-2022, Steven L. Fullerton, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr.

Border Region Modeling Project

A monthly frequency metropolitan business cycle downturn likelihood equation is estimated for Ciudad Juarez. The binary index of economic conditions is based upon monthly IMMEX export oriented manufacturing employment. A dynamic probit methodology is used for parameter estimation. Continuous explanatory variables include a 1-year minus 1-month Mexico interest rate spread, a 2015 = 100 weighted real exchange rate index, and a 10-year minus 3-month USA interest rate spread. Parameter estimation results confirm the various hypotheses examined. However, model simulation outcomes are less favorable with the results indicating that accurate forecasting of the post-2010 business cycles may require additional refinement to …


Aggregate Online Brand Name Pharmacy Price Dynamics For The United States And Mexico, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton May 2022

Aggregate Online Brand Name Pharmacy Price Dynamics For The United States And Mexico, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton

Border Region Modeling Project

Virtual cross-border medical tourism allows many residents in the United States to purchase brand name medicines from companies in Mexico without travelling there. Monthly economic reports indicate that the online brand name pharmaceutical product prices in Mexico are noticeably lower than the corresponding internet prices in the United States. There have been very few econometric studies on how these prices are linked and the dynamic nature of those relationships. Results in this study indicate that online medicine prices in Mexico respond very rapidly to online prices changes in the high-price market.


Short-Term Household Economic Stress Effects On Retail Sales In El Paso: 2002-2019, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Patricia Arellano-Olague Apr 2022

Short-Term Household Economic Stress Effects On Retail Sales In El Paso: 2002-2019, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Patricia Arellano-Olague

Border Region Modeling Project

Economic stress indices are beginning to be developed as gauges of business cycle conditions for regional economies. Although the popularity of these metrics is increasing, there have been only a small number of studies that analyze the effectiveness of these tools for monitoring regional economic developments. This effort employs data for one such index that is maintained by The University of Texas at El Paso Border Region Modeling Project. The sample period covers December 2002 through March 2019. Specific components of the index include inflation, unemployment, and housing prices. Estimation results indicate that the effects of any changes in economic …


Trade Clusters And Usa Southern Border Transportation Costs: 1995-2015, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Ernesto Duarte Ronquillo Apr 2021

Trade Clusters And Usa Southern Border Transportation Costs: 1995-2015, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Ernesto Duarte Ronquillo

Border Region Modeling Project

Fixed effects panel regression analysis is used to examine the impact of trade clusters on transportation costs along the southern border of the United States. CIF/ FOB ratios are utilized as the transportation cost measures. Grubel-Lloyd and Herfindahl- Hirschman indexes are utilized to identify trade clusters in the sample. Data are assembled for four custom districts (El Paso, Laredo, Nogales, and San Diego) during a 20-year period between 1995 and 2015. Because cross-sectional residual dependence is present, parameter estimation is carried out using Driscoll-Kraay robust standard errors. 9/11 terrorist attack effects are taken into account in the fixed effects model. …


Residential Electricity Demand In El Paso: 1977-2014, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., David R. Macias, Adam G. Walke Sep 2016

Residential Electricity Demand In El Paso: 1977-2014, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., David R. Macias, Adam G. Walke

Border Region Modeling Project

This study analyzes the demand for residential electricity in El Paso, Texas, USA. Annual data are provided by El Paso Electric Company covering the period from 1977 to 2014. This study reports a negative long-run income elasticity for residential electricity demand. Per customer residential electricity usage declines by 0.68 percent for every 1-percent increase in real per capita income over the long run, indicating that electricity is treated as an inferior good by households in this metropolitan economy. That result runs counter to many earlier studies, but corroborates recent empirical evidence for Seattle, Washington and other regions of the United …


Downtown Parking Meter Demand In El Paso, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., E. Pallarez, Adam G. Walke May 2015

Downtown Parking Meter Demand In El Paso, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., E. Pallarez, Adam G. Walke

Border Region Modeling Project

Prior research establishes that the price of parking in the city centre often impacts the decision to travel downtown and the mode of transportation utilized. Other factors that influence the decision to drive and park downtown have received less attention. This study uses time series data to analyse the demand for metered parking spaces in El Paso, Texas, USA. In addition to meter rates, the determinants of demand include personal income, gasoline prices, and the price of a substitute good, parking garage spaces. Because international bridges connect downtown El Paso to neighbouring Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, Mexico, the impacts of trans-boundary …


Tolls, Exchange Rates, And Northbound International Bridge Traffic: 1990-2006, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Angel L. Molina Jr., Adam G. Walke Apr 2013

Tolls, Exchange Rates, And Northbound International Bridge Traffic: 1990-2006, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Angel L. Molina Jr., Adam G. Walke

Border Region Modeling Project

Although there have been a small number of empirical studies that analyze northbound border crossings between Mexico and the United States, very few examine the potential impacts of both tolls and exchange rates on the various traffic categories. This effort attempts to partially fill that gap in the applied economics literature by modeling northbound traffic flows at one of the largest regional economies along the border. Results indicate that business cycle fluctuations, variations in the real exchange rate, and changes in real toll tariffs all influence cross border traffic volumes. Tolls on northbound traffic into the United States are assessed …


Physical Infrastructure And Economic Growth In El Paso: 1976-2009, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Azucena González Monzón, Adam G. Walke Feb 2013

Physical Infrastructure And Economic Growth In El Paso: 1976-2009, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Azucena González Monzón, Adam G. Walke

Border Region Modeling Project

Prior research on the impacts of public capital stocks on economic growth has generally employed either national macroeconomic or multi-jurisdictional regional data. This study attempts to contribute to this area of the discipline by utilizing time series data for a single metropolitan economy. To allow for both short-run and long-run effects, an error correction modeling framework is used for the empirical analysis. Because comprehensive public infrastructure stocks are not published for El Paso, Texas, estimates for those variables are calculated using information regarding annual public capital investment data. Estimation results indicate that physical infrastructure investment may disrupt short-run economic growth, …


Dinámica Del Consumo De Gasolina En Ciudad Juárez: 2001 - 2009, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Gabriel Múnoz Sapien, Martha Patricia Barraza De Anda, Lisbeily Domínguez Ruvalcaba Nov 2012

Dinámica Del Consumo De Gasolina En Ciudad Juárez: 2001 - 2009, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Gabriel Múnoz Sapien, Martha Patricia Barraza De Anda, Lisbeily Domínguez Ruvalcaba

Border Region Modeling Project

This research analyzes short-run gasoline consumption dynamics in Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, México. Parameter estimation is carried out using linear transfer function ARIMA analysis. This market is of interest because it is influenced by regional, national, and international economic conditions due to its location on the border with the United States. Explanatory variables that satisfy the significance criterion include the real price of gasoline in Ciudad Juárez, the price of gasoline in Ciudad Juárez relative to that charged across the border in El Paso, Texas, USA, and formal sector employment in Ciudad Juárez. Sample data are for January 2001 to December …


Border Metropolitan Water Forecast Accuracy, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Angel L. Molina Jr. Oct 2010

Border Metropolitan Water Forecast Accuracy, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Angel L. Molina Jr.

Border Region Modeling Project

Municipal water consumption planning is an active area of research due to infrastructure construction and maintenance costs, supply constraints, and water quality assurance. In spite of that, relatively few water forecast accuracy assessments have been completed to date, although some internal documentation may exist as part of the proprietary “grey literature.” This study utilizes a data set of previously published municipal consumption forecasts to partially fill that gap in the empirical water economics literature. Previously published municipal water econometric forecasts for three public utilities are examined for predictive accuracy against two random walk benchmarks commonly used in regional analyses. Descriptive …