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Articles 1 - 30 of 45
Full-Text Articles in Econometrics
Who Survived The Titanic? A Logistic Regression Analysis, Lonnie K. Stevans, David Gleicher
Who Survived The Titanic? A Logistic Regression Analysis, Lonnie K. Stevans, David Gleicher
Lonnie K. Stevans
A logistic regression analysis of an extensive data set on the Titanic passengers is presented which tests the likelihood that a Titanic passenger survived the accident--based upon passenger characteristics. The main finding is that underneath the strong overt preference afforded in the rescue by the authorities to women and children over men, there was a complex class determination of survival rates among men, on the one hand, and women and children, on the other. We hypothesize that the statistical interactions of gender and class are explained by two crucial decisions made by the ship’s authorities: 1. to encourage, and perhaps …
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- December 2004, Leonard Lardaro
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- December 2004, Leonard Lardaro
The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index
No abstract provided.
Analytically Calibrated Box-Cox Percentile Limits For Duration And Event-Time Models, Zhenlin Yang, Albert K.C. Tsui
Analytically Calibrated Box-Cox Percentile Limits For Duration And Event-Time Models, Zhenlin Yang, Albert K.C. Tsui
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper proposes a unified approach to constructing confidence limits for a future percentile duration or event-time. The construction is based on an analytical calibration of the Box-Cox-type “plug-in” percentile limits (PL). The performance of the calibrated Box-Cox PL is investigated using Monte Carlo experiments. Comparisons are made with PLs that are specifically designed for a particular distribution such as Weibull and lognormal. Excellent performances of the calibrated Box-Cox PL are observed. Simulation based on other popular duration models such as gamma and inverse Gaussian reveal that the proposed PL is robust against distributional assumptions and that it performs much …
On Measuring Influence In Non-Binary Voting Games, Vincent Chua, C. H. Ueng
On Measuring Influence In Non-Binary Voting Games, Vincent Chua, C. H. Ueng
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this note, we demonstrate using two simple examples that generalization of the Banzhaf measure of voter influence to non-binary voting games that requires as starting position a voter’s membership in a winning coalition is likely to incompletely reflect the influence a voter has on the outcome of a game. Generalization of the Banzhaf measure that takes into consideration all possible pivot moves of a voter including those moves originating from a losing coalition will, on the other hand, result in a measure that is proportional to the Penrose measure only in the ternary case.
L S Penrose's Limit Theorem: Tests By Simulation, Pao-Li Chang, Vincent Chua, Moshe Machover
L S Penrose's Limit Theorem: Tests By Simulation, Pao-Li Chang, Vincent Chua, Moshe Machover
Research Collection School Of Economics
LS Penrose’s limit theorem (PLT) – which is implicit in Penrose [5, p. 72] and for which he gave no rigorous proof – says that, in simple weighted voting games, if the number of voters increases indefinitely while existing voters retain their weights and the relative quota is pegged, then – under certain conditions – the ratio between the voting powers of any two voters converges to the ratio between their weights. Lindner and Machover [3] prove some special cases of PLT; and conjecture that the theorem holds, under rather general conditions, for large classes of weighted voting games, various …
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- November 2004, Leonard Lardaro
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- November 2004, Leonard Lardaro
The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index
No abstract provided.
Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models: Bayesian Estimation And Model Comparison, Jun Yu, Renate Meyer
Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models: Bayesian Estimation And Model Comparison, Jun Yu, Renate Meyer
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this paper we show that fully likelihood-based estimation and comparison of multivariate stochastic volatility (SV) models can be easily performed via a freely available Bayesian software called WinBUGS. Moreover, we introduce to the literature several new specifications which are natural extensions to certain existing models, one of which allows for time varying correlation coefficients. Ideas are illustrated by fitting, to a bivariate time series data of weekly exchange rates, nine multivariate SV models, including the specifications with Granger causality in volatility, time varying correlations, heavy-tailed error distributions, additive factor structure, and multiplicative factor structure. Empirical results suggest that the …
Asymmetric Response Of Volatility: Evidence From Stochastic Volatility Models And Realized Volatility, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper examines the asymmetric response of equity volatility to return shocks. We generalize the news impact function (NIF), originally introduced by Engle and Ng (1993) to study asymmetric volatility under the ARCH-type models, to be applicable to both stochastic volatility (SV) and ARCH-type models. Based on the generalized concept, we provide a unified framework to examine asymmetric properties of volatility. A new asymmetric volatility model, which nests both ARCH and SV models and at the same time allows for a more flexible NIF, is proposed. Empirical results based on daily index return data support the classical asymmetric SV model …
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- October 2004, Leonard Lardaro
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- October 2004, Leonard Lardaro
The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index
No abstract provided.
Trans-Normal Distribution: A Flexible Model For Duration And Event-Time Data, Zhenlin Yang
Trans-Normal Distribution: A Flexible Model For Duration And Event-Time Data, Zhenlin Yang
Research Collection School Of Economics
A new family of distributions, called the trans-normal distribution is introduced. Its basic properties are presented. A closely related family of distributions called tran-t distribution is also given along with its basic properties. Trans-normal regression is used as an illustration on the usefullness of the new distribution.
Constructing A Coincident Index Of Business Cycles Without Assuming A One-Factor Model, Roberto S. Mariano, Yasutomo Murasawa
Constructing A Coincident Index Of Business Cycles Without Assuming A One-Factor Model, Roberto S. Mariano, Yasutomo Murasawa
Research Collection School Of Economics
The Stock-Watson coincident index and its subsequent extensions assume a static linear one-factor structure for the component indicators. Such assumption is restrictive in practice, however, with as few as four indicators. In fact, such assumption is unnecessary if one defines a coincident index as an estimate of latent monthly real GDP. This paper considers VAR and factor models for latent monthly real GDP and other coincident indicators, and estimates the models using the observable mixed-frequency series. For US data, Schwartz’s Bayesian information criterion selects a two-factor model. The smoothed estimate of latent monthly real GDP is the proposed index.
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- September 2004, Leonard Lardaro
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- September 2004, Leonard Lardaro
The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index
No abstract provided.
Tests Of Transformation In Nonlinear Regression, Zhenlin Yang, Gemai Chen
Tests Of Transformation In Nonlinear Regression, Zhenlin Yang, Gemai Chen
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper presents three versions of the Lagrange multiplier (LM) tests of transformation in nonlinear regression: (i) LM test based on expected information, (ii) LM test based on Hessian, and (iii) the LM test based on gradient. All three tests can be easily implemented through a nonlinear least squares procedure. Simulation results show that, in terms of finite sample performance, the LM test based on expected information is the best, followed by the LM test based on Hessian and then the LM test based on gradient. The LM test based on gradient can perform rather poorly. An example is given …
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- August 2004, Leonard Lardaro
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- August 2004, Leonard Lardaro
The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index
No abstract provided.
Determinants Of Consumers’ Use Of Nutritional Food Labels, Andreas Drichoutis, Panagiotis Lazaridis, Rodolfo M. Nayga, Jr.
Determinants Of Consumers’ Use Of Nutritional Food Labels, Andreas Drichoutis, Panagiotis Lazaridis, Rodolfo M. Nayga, Jr.
Andreas Drichoutis
No abstract provided.
Estimation Of Hyperbolic Diffusion Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method, Yiu Kuen Tse, Xibin Zhang, Jun Yu
Estimation Of Hyperbolic Diffusion Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method, Yiu Kuen Tse, Xibin Zhang, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this paper we propose a Bayesian method to estimate the hyperbolic diffusion model. The approach is based on the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method with the likelihood of the discretized process as the approximate posterior likelihood. We demonstrate that the MCMC method Provides a useful tool in analysing hyperbolic diffusions. In particular, quantities of posterior distributions obtained from the MCMC outputs can be used for statistical inference. The MCMC method based on the Milstein scheme is unsatisfactory. Our simulation study shows that the hyperbolic diffusion exhibits many of the stylized facts about asset returns documented in the discrete-time …
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- July 2004, Leonard Lardaro
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- July 2004, Leonard Lardaro
The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index
No abstract provided.
Forecasting The Global Electronics Cycle With Leading Indicators: A Var Approach, Hwee Kwan Chow
Forecasting The Global Electronics Cycle With Leading Indicators: A Var Approach, Hwee Kwan Chow
Research Collection School Of Economics
Developments in the global electronics industry are typically monitored by tracking indicators that span a whole spectrum of activities in the sector. However, these indicators invariably give mixed signals at each point in time, thereby hampering efforts at prediction. In this paper, we propose a unified framework for forecasting the global electronics cycle by constructing a VAR model that captures the economic interactions between leading indicators representing expectations, orders, inventories and prices. The ability of the indicators to presage world semiconductor sales is first demonstrated by Granger causality tests. The VAR model is then used to derive the dynamic paths …
Monotonicity Conditions And Inequality Imputation For Sample-Selection And Non-Response Problems, Myoung-Jae Lee
Monotonicity Conditions And Inequality Imputation For Sample-Selection And Non-Response Problems, Myoung-Jae Lee
Research Collection School Of Economics
Under a sample selection or non-response problem, where a response variable y is observed only when a condition δ = 1 is met, the identified mean E(y|δ = 1) is not equal to the desired mean E(y). But the monotonicity condition E(y|δ = 1) ≤ E(y|δ = 0) yields an informative bound E(y|δ = 1) ≤ E(y), which is enough for certain inferences. For example, in a majority voting with δ being the vote-turnout, it is enough to know if E(y) > 0.5 or not, for which E(y|δ = 1) > 0.5 is sufficient under the monotonicity. The main question is then …
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- June 2004, Leonard Lardaro
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- June 2004, Leonard Lardaro
The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index
No abstract provided.
Expectations Formation And Forecasting Of Vehicle Demand: An Empirical Study Of The Vehicle Quota Auctions In Singapore, Sing-Fat Chu, Winston T. H. Koh, Yiu Kuen Tse
Expectations Formation And Forecasting Of Vehicle Demand: An Empirical Study Of The Vehicle Quota Auctions In Singapore, Sing-Fat Chu, Winston T. H. Koh, Yiu Kuen Tse
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper studies the expectations formation and forecasting of vehicle demand in Singapore under the vehicle quota system. Under the system, a car buyer must first bid for a vehicle license in monthly auctions in order to purchase a new car. We construct an econometric model to test the hypothesis that past bid distributions of the license auctions contain information that car buyers can use to update their expectations about the intensity of market demand, forecast the license premiums and formulate their bidding strategies in future auctions. Our empirical analysis indicates that past bid distributions have a good degree of …
Multiple Testing To Establish Superiority/Equivalence Of A New Treatment Compared With K Standard Treatments For Unbalanced Designs, Koon Shing Kwong, Siu Hung Cheung, Wai-Sum Chan
Multiple Testing To Establish Superiority/Equivalence Of A New Treatment Compared With K Standard Treatments For Unbalanced Designs, Koon Shing Kwong, Siu Hung Cheung, Wai-Sum Chan
Research Collection School Of Economics
In clinical studies, multiple superiority/equivalence testing procedures can be applied to classify a new treatment as superior, equivalent (same therapeutic effect), or inferior to each set of standard treatments. Previous stepwise approaches (Dunnett and Tamhane, 1997, Statistics in Medicine 16, 2489–2506; Kwong, 2001, Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 97, 359–366) are only appropriate for balanced designs. Unfortunately, the construction of similar tests for unbalanced designs is far more complex, with two major difficulties: (i) the ordering of test statistics for superiority may not be the same as the ordering of test statistics for equivalence; and (ii) the correlation structure …
On Leverage In A Stochastic Volatility Model, Jun Yu
On Leverage In A Stochastic Volatility Model, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper is concerned with specification for modelling financial leverage effect in the context of stochastic volatility (SV) models. Two alternative specifications co-exist in the literature. One is the Euler approximation to the well known continuous time SV model with leverage effect and the other is the discrete time SV model of Jacquier, Polson and Rossi (2004, Journal of Econometrics, forthcoming). Using a Gaussian nonlinear state space form with uncorrelated measurement and transition errors, I show that it is easy to interpret the leverage effect in the conventional model whereas it is not clear how to obtain the leverage effect …
House Prices And Aggregate Consumption: Do They Move Together? Evidence From Singapore, Sock-Yong Phang
House Prices And Aggregate Consumption: Do They Move Together? Evidence From Singapore, Sock-Yong Phang
PHANG Sock Yong
Using data from Singapore, we find no evidence that house price increases have produced either wealth or collateral enhancement effects on aggregate consumption. We confirm the presence of liquidity constraints from the asymmetric reaction of consumption to income increases vis-a-vis income declines. When we allow for asymmetric response, anticipated house price increases do not have a positive effect on aggregate consumption: we find that they are considerably more likely to have a modest dampening effect, although this negative result is not statistically significant from zero. Declines in expected house price growth have a larger and marginally significant negative effect on …
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- May 2004, Leonard Lardaro
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- May 2004, Leonard Lardaro
The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index
No abstract provided.
On Leverage In A Stochastic Volatility Model, Jun Yu
On Leverage In A Stochastic Volatility Model, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper is concerned with specification for modelling financial leverage effect in the context of stochastic volatility (SV) models. Two alternative specifications co-exist in the literature. One is the Euler approximation to the well known continuous time SV model with leverage effect and the other is the discrete time SV model of Jacquier, Polson and Rossi (2004, Journal of Econometrics, forthcoming). Using a Gaussian nonlinear state space form with uncorrelated measurement and transition errors, I show that it is easy to interpret the leverage effect in the conventional model whereas it is not clear how to obtain the leverage effect …
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- April 2004, Leonard Lardaro
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- April 2004, Leonard Lardaro
The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index
No abstract provided.
A Semi-Parametric Two-Component Compound Mixture Model And Its Application To Estimating Malaria Attributable Fractions, Jing Qin, Denis H. Y. Leung
A Semi-Parametric Two-Component Compound Mixture Model And Its Application To Estimating Malaria Attributable Fractions, Jing Qin, Denis H. Y. Leung
Research Collection School Of Economics
Malaria remains a major epidemiologic problem in many developing countries. Malaria is defined as the presence of parasites and symptoms (usually fever) due to the parasites. In endemic areas, an individual may have symptoms attributable either to malaria or to other causes. From a clinical viewpoint, it is important to correctly diagnose an individual who has developed symptoms so that the appropriate treatments can be given. From an epidemiologic and economic viewpoint, it is important to determine the proportion of malaria-affected cases in individuals who have symptoms so that policies on intervention program can be developed. Once symptoms have developed …
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- March 2004, Leonard Lardaro
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- March 2004, Leonard Lardaro
The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index
No abstract provided.
Transaction-Data Analysis Of Marked Durations And Their Implications For Market Microstructure, Anthony S. Tay, Christopher Ting, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitchell Warachka
Transaction-Data Analysis Of Marked Durations And Their Implications For Market Microstructure, Anthony S. Tay, Christopher Ting, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitchell Warachka
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We propose an Autoregressive Conditional Marked Duration (ACMD) model for the analysis of irregularly spaced transaction data. Based on the Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD) model, the ACMD model assigns marks to characterize events such as tick movements and trade directions (buy/sell). Applying the ACMD model to tick movements, we study the influence of trade frequency, direction and size on price dynamics, volatility and the permanent and transitory price impacts of trade. We also apply the ACMD model to analyze trade-direction data and estimate the probability of informed trading (PIN). We find that trade frequency has a critical role in price …