Econometrics Commons^™

Nigeria's 2025 Tax Act In Comparative Perspective: Tax Rates, Compliance, And Fiscal Space With Econometric And Machine-Learning Evidence From Nigeria, South Africa, The United Kingdom, And The United States, Olatunji Dauda Ojedokun, Seun Adebanjo

Economic and Business Review

This study compares Nigeria's 2025 Tax Act with regimes in South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States using quarterly panel data (2000–2025) and complementary econometric and machine-learning methods. We estimate fixed-effects difference-in-differences, autoregressive distributed lag/cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag error-correction models, dynamic panel generalised method of moments, and local projections to identify short- and long-run effects on revenue efficiency, compliance behaviour, and fiscal space. Predictions for VAT/corporate income tax revenues and gaps are generated with Elastic Net, Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM, and heterogeneity is assessed via generalised random forests and doubly robust learners. Results show a significant, …

Fiscal Decentralization, Local Government Size, And Regional Economic Growth: Evidence From Indonesia, Faizul Mubarok, Hasta Dwi Pradana, Etty Puji Lestari

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study investigates the dynamic relationship between fiscal decentralization, local government size, and regional economic growth in Indonesia. Integrating fiscal federalism theory with the Armey curve framework, the study examines whether decentralization reshapes the scale of subnational governments and how this influences growth outcomes. Using balanced panel data from 26 Indonesian provinces over the period 1995–2020, the analysis employs dynamic panel estimators based on the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to address endogeneity, persistence, and unobserved heterogeneity. The results reveal a nuanced relationship between fiscal decentralization and government size. Greater revenue autonomy is associated with a contraction in government size …

Threshold Spatial Panel Regression With Fixed Effects, Xiaoyu Meng, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We introduce general estimation and inference methods for threshold spatial panel regression with two-way fixed effects in a diminishing-threshold-effects framework. A valid objective function is obtained through a simple adjustment on the concentrated quasi loglikelihood with fixed effects being concentrated out, which leads to a consistent estimation of all common parameters. We show that the estimation of threshold parameter has a negligible effect on the asymptotic distribution of the main parameter estimators and thereby regular inference methods apply, though a bias correction may be necessary. The limiting distribution of the threshold parameter estimator is shown to be non-regular and infeasible, …

The Mundlak Estimator In A Panel Data Model With Serially Correlated Error Component Disturbances, Badi H. Baltagi, Long Liu

Center for Policy Research

This paper shows that the classic Mundlak (1978) result where the random effects estimator reduces to the fixed effects estimator when the regressors are all correlated with the individual effects, may not hold if the remainder disturbances have a general serial correlation variance-covariance matrix. This includes the popular AR(1), MA(1) and ARMA(p, q) processes for serial correlation. This is illustrated with an empirical example for the AR(1) case.

The Ecological Impacts Of Un-Protecting Forests: The Case Of Gold Mining In Ghana, Tate Alexander Barend

Master's Theses

This paper estimates the causal effect of Ghana’s Legislative Instrument 2462 (L.I. 2462) on deforestation in protected areas. The policy redefined the regulatory regime governing small-scale gold mining in protected areas, moving from prohibition to discretionary permitting. I exploit the implementation of L.I. 2462 as a policy shock and apply a difference-in-differences event-study framework to a propensity score–matched sample of pixels derived from high-resolution satellite images. Contrary to widespread concerns that the policy would accelerate deforestation, the results provide no evidence of large-scale vegetation loss in exposed protected areas following the policy change. Instead, protected area pixels located within 5 …

Projecting The Broad Money Supply From Base Money Dynamics, Baba N. Yaaba

Bullion

The study demonstrates that in periods when Other Depository Corporations' balance sheet data are unavailable, broad money (M3) can be reasonably projected by combining the monetary base from the CBN balance sheet with the immediately preceding money multiplier. This time-varying approach using the lagged multiplier provides an appropriate and empirically justified basis for projecting broad money. However, the application of this methodology should be confined to internal policy analysis and decision-making purposes and not extended to public dissemination.

Assessing Healthcare Access Among Overweight And Obese Individuals In Türkiye Using Latent Variable Modeling, Banu Beyaz Sipahi

Makara Journal of Health Research

Background: Overweight and obesity are critical determinants of healthcare access, yet evidence on how the COVID-19 pandemic reshaped these dynamics in Türkiye remains limited. This study investigates whether the early post-pandemic recovery period altered healthcare access patterns for individuals with excess weight.

Methods: Using nationally representative microdata from the 2014, 2016, 2019, and 2022 Turkish Health Surveys, we constructed a latent Healthcare Access Index based on six indicators of unmet care needs. Probit models were estimated to assess associations between BMI categories and healthcare access, controlling for socioeconomic and demographic factors. The 2022 wave serves as the early …

Airline Ticket Anaysis, Emerson Kohl, Ivan O'Neil

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

While the U.S. domestic airline industry generates hundreds of billions in annual revenue, the mechanics of airfare pricing remain remarkably opaque to travelers and analysts alike. Prices for geographically similar routes often diverge sharply, driven by a complex interplay of structural constraints and market pressures. This study elucidates the primary drivers of ticket pricing by analyzing high-frequency data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics DB1B database.   Utilizing an Ordinary Least Squares framework, the research evaluates how route distance, carrier concentration, passenger throughput, and seasonal fluctuations collectively dictate average fares. By quantifying these relationships in Python, the analysis seeks to isolate …

Semiparametric Cointegrating Rank Selection For Curved Cross-Section Time Series, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

Cointegrating rank selection is studied in a function space reduced rank regression where the data are time series of cross-section curves. Consistent cointegrating rank estimation is developed using information criteria extended to curve time series environments. The asymptotic theory involves two-parameter Gaussian processes that generalise the standard limit processes involved in cointegrating regressions. Simulations provide evidence of the effectiveness of consistent rank selection by the BIC criterion and the tendency of AIC to overestimate order as in standard lag order selection in autoregression, as well as in reduced rank regression with multiple time series.

From Personal To Personalized Goals: How Goal Nudges Improve Production, Joaquín Gómez-Miñambres, Brice Corgnet, Roberto Hernán González

ESI Working Papers

We study how workers’ non-binding self-set goals affect their production and whether goal nudges (ability-calibrated goal hints) make goal setting more effective. In a real-effort task, participants first complete an ability pretest and are then assigned to one of three treatments: a no-goal baseline, a personal goal treatment with no external hint, or a personalized goal nudge that participants may accept or modify. We document a positive link between goals and production. However, merely asking workers to set goals is ineffective: when left unguided, workers anchor on conservative goals well below those induced by goal nudges, leading to underperformance. In …

Generosity After Negative Random Shocks, Hernán Bejarano, Joris Gillet, Ismael Rodriguez-Lara

ESI Working Papers

We report the results of three preregistered experiments examining the effects of negative random endowment shocks on generosity. Using a dictator game, we show that generosity is greater towards those who experience a negative random shock, and this effect is larger than the effect inequality has on giving. Our data provide evidence that people do not expect this additional level of generosity after a shock and that injunctive norms cannot explain it either. Taken together, our findings suggest that the (high) level of generosity observed after negative random shocks is unexpected and exceeds what people consider to be socially appropriate. …

Identity-Dependent Externalities Can Mitigate Overbidding In Tullock Contests: Theory And Evidence, Dan Kovenock, Jian Song, Francesco Trevisan

ESI Working Papers

We investigate how identity-dependent externalities infuence bidding behavior in Tullock lottery contests. While experimental studies of standard contests, in which losers are indiferent to the winner’s identity, consistently document overbidding, the role of identity-dependent preferences remains less explored. We address this gap by frst showing that the class of three-player Tullock lottery contests with identity-dependent externalities considered here can be mapped into a standard Tullock lottery contest with appropriately chosen prize valuations and endowments, yielding identical Nash equilibrium predictions. We then use this mapping to design a laboratory experiment that directly compares the two “equilibrium-equivalent” contest formats. In our three-player …

Usability Of Bitcoin As Currency In Türkiye: Fourier Shin Approach, İsmail Cem Özkurt, Deniz Özyakışır, Yunus Kutval

The Indonesian Capital Market Review

This paper seeks to assess the feasibility of utilizing Bitcoin as a currency within Türkiye. To achieve this, the research analyzes long-term cointegration relationships between Bitcoin and both the US Dollar and Euro, employing monthly data from November 2017 to February 2025 and utilizing the Fourier Shin cointegration test. The results of the cointegration tests, bolstered by Fourier series analysis, reveal significant long-term cointegration relationships between Bitcoin and both the USD and Euro. The DOLS analysis indicates that a 1% rise in Bitcoin leads to a 14% decrease in the USD price and a 17% increase in the Euro. These …

The Asymmetric Effect Of The Rupiah Exchange Rate On Indonesia's Non-Oil And Gas Exports, Muhammad Sugiantoro, Diah Wahyuningsih, Ris Yuwono Yudo Nugroho, Widita Kurniasari, Ahmad Kamil

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan

This study aims to analyze the asymmetric effect of the rupiah exchange rate on Indonesia's non-oil and gas sector exports, by considering the control variables. As well as identifying whether Indonesia's non-oil and gas sector exports are more responsively influenced by rupiah exchange rate depreciation or rupiah exchange rate appreciation. The analysis technique used is Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) with quarterly data from 2016 to 2023. The results showed that the rupiah exchange rate has an asymmetric effect on Indonesia's non-oil and gas sector exports, both in the short and long term. Depreciation and appreciation of the rupiah exchange …

Mengukur Capaian Dan Identifikasi Konvergensi Pembangunan Infrastruktur Antarprovinsi Di Indonesia, Ressa Isnaini Arumnisaa', Aisyah Fitri Yuniasih

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

Indonesia’s economic challenges are characterized by stagnant economic growth and regional development disparities. This study analyzes the achievement and convergence of infrastructure development across provinces in Indonesia during 2011–2021 through the construction of an Infrastructure Development Index (IPI). The study employs panel data from 33 provinces, using factor analysis to construct the IPI and the First Difference Generalized Method of Moments (FD-GMM) to examine convergence and its determinants. The results show that many provinces still have IDI scores below the national average. Furthermore, the FD-GMM model shows that σ-convergence and β-convergence occur in Indonesia. In addition, GRDP per capita, inflation, …

Evaluasi Dampak Digitalisasi Regional Terhadap Pembangunan Berkelanjutan Di Indonesia, Tomi Setiawan, Muhammad Farras Samith, Shifwah Murran Nashifa

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

Digitalization has become a key pillar in driving economic, social, and governance transformation in Indonesia. However, it is necessary to verify whether digitalization has supported sustainable development goals. This study evaluates the impact of digitalization on sustainability dimensions at the district/city level in Indonesia using the Propensity Score Matching (PSM). The results show that digitalization has a significant negative impact on environmental quality. Conversely, the impact on the economy and social welfare is not statistically significant, indicating that the benefits of digitalization are not evenly distributed and tend to be concentrated among groups that already have digital access and capabilities.

Conflict-Mediated Group Size Regulation: A Theory Of Supraoptimal And Suboptimal Group Size, Eric Schniter

ESI Working Papers

Observed group sizes rarely match the size that would maximize what each member gets from belonging. We propose a two-part theory in which group size is regulated by two related conflicts: insider-outsider conflict over admission, and within-group conflict as crowding, competition, and social tensions intensify with size. Three strategies are available: admission, exclusion, and fission. The first part shows that even when exclusion is unavailable, fission dynamics alone drive group size away from the optimum in both directions, with the pattern set by how prospective joiners encounter groups and by the geometry of fission. When joiners compare groups across a …

Passed Through Or Pushed Back? Exchange Rate Effects On Manufacturing Trade Prices In Indonesia And The Asean Plus Three, Fatikha Rizky Kurnia, Miguel Angel Esquivias, Wee-Yeap Lau, Unggul Heriqbaldi

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study analyzes the Exchange Rate Pass-Through (ERPT) on export and import prices in Indonesia’s manufacturing trade with ASEAN Plus-three countries (China, Japan, and South Korea) using monthly data from 2016 to 2022. Employing the Nonlinear (NARDL) models, we examine the degree and asymmetry of ERPT across five key manufacturing sectors for each partner. The NARDL model confirms asymmetric price responses to currency appreciation and depreciation in several sectors. The findings reveal significant sectoral and country-specific variations. Some export sectors experience complete pass-through in the short term but shift to negative complete passthrough in the long run. Meanwhile, imports from …

Hierarchical Bayesian Evidence On Cbdc Adoption: The Case Of Indonesia’S Digital Rupiah, Akbar Syahid Rabbani, Jongsu Lee

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study analyzed accessibility, privacy, transferability, and interest rates related to the adoption of Digital Rupiah, Indonesia’s Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), among rural and urban consumers. Findings from a hierarchical Bayesian model show that mobile applications are the main acquisition channel, and enhanced transferability with bank accounts and electronic money boosts consumer utility. However, there are concerns about fully anonymous transactions, differentiated by socio-demographic profiles (age, income, education, and knowledge). Scenario analysis suggests the potential CBDC adoption rate in Indonesia could range from 38% to 55%, influenced by privacy levels and the central bank’s interest rates.

Is Fdi A Panacea? Unveiling Spillover Effects On Efficiency And Risk In Indonesian Manufacturing, Fichrie Fachrowi Adli, Dyah Wulan Sari, Dian Enggar Lintang Pertiwi, Mohammad Zeqi Yasin

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study builds on Javorcik (2004), who argues that countries attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) with the expectation that spillovers will benefit local firms. However, empirical evidence on this effect remains inconsistent. This research addresses the gap by examining the impact of horizontal spillovers not only on production efficiency but also on production risk. It also accounts for firm heterogeneity in the manufacturing sector by classifying technological intensity using unsupervised machine learning, specifically K-means clustering, into three categories based on OECD (2011): High Technology (HT), Medium Technology (MT), and Low Technology (LT). The study uses data from Statistik Industri (SI) …

Parental Gender Bias In Youth Employment Standards: Evidence From Upper Egypt, Mahmoud Saeed

Theses and Dissertations

Youth unemployment remains a critical challenge in Egypt, with female labor force participation among the lowest globally. While structural factors such as limited job creation and public sector contraction are well-documented, the role of family-level decision-making in constraining women's labor market entry has received limited quantitative attention. This thesis examines parental gender bias in employment standards in Upper Egypt, investigating whether and how parents impose systematically different job requirements for daughters compared to sons. Using primary survey data from 17,284 unemployed youth aged 18-35 across six governorates, paired with responses from their parents, this study analyzes parental preferences across six …

Testing Potential Correlations Between Childhood Lead Exposure And Authoritarianism In Adulthood, Kragen Anderson

University Honors Theses

A significant body of research links lead exposure during childhood to negative effects ranging from increased impulsivity to societal level effects such as an increased likelihood of committing violent crime in adulthood. Due to exposure vectors such as lead water pipes, lead solder, lead based paints, and leaded gasoline there was significant lead exposure during childhood for large portions of the American population. This paper tested and found a statistically significant association between average population level lead exposure in childhood and likelihood of voting for candidate Trump later in life.

The Dictatorial Public Goods Game, Gabriele Camera, Gary Charness, Nir Chemeya, Ro'i Zultan

ESI Working Papers

We propose a novel game, the Dictatorial Public Goods Game, to study the interplay between collective resource generation and centralized provision of public goods. After making choices in a standard Voluntary Contribution Mechanism (VCM), one player is selected from the group to administrate the contributions: either provide the public good or expropriate the collected resources for personal gain. We find that adding this centralized mechanism reduces efficiency compared to the standard VCM. Although higher contributions increase the material incentive to expropriate, they lead to more provision. Thus, pro-social choices in the contribution and in the provision stages act as …

The Nexus Between Economic Growth, Energy Consumption, Technology Innovation, And Co2 Emissions In Vietnam, Ha Thi Thu Nguyen

Economic and Business Review

Vietnam's rapid economic growth has intensified environmental pressures, heightening concerns about the country's ability to decouple growth from rising CO₂ emissions. Although green policies and initiatives have been introduced, questions remain regarding their effectiveness and the extent to which technological innovation and renewable energy can mitigate environmental degradation. This study applies the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology (STIRPAT) framework and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to investigate the short- and long-run impacts of economic growth, foreign direct investment (FDI), technological innovation, renewable energy consumption, and forest area on CO₂ emissions in Vietnam, using annual …

Beyond The Shelf: How Reallocating Shelf Space To Emerging Brands Enhances Store Performance Through Dynamic Brand-Level Effects, Jesse Core, Ho Kim

Journal of Applied Marketing Theory

This study examines the effects of reallocating shelf space from established to emerging brands in the flavored malt beverage category, a fast-moving, impulse-driven product category. Using a 13-week field experiment in 16 U.S. grocery stores (six treated, ten control), we reallocated one shelf facing from an established to an emerging brand for four weeks before reverting the shelves to their original configuration. Then we analyzed weekly SKU-level data on sales with fixed-effects panel regressions. Results show that the shelf-space reallocation increased category sales by 21.2% during treatment and 27.6% after reversion, revealing persistent gains. At the brand level, emerging brands …

Mandates, Markets, And Megawatts: An Empirical Analysis Of The Causal Effects Of State-Level Energy Storage Mandates On Utility-Scale Battery Storage Deployment In The United States, Bill Zheng

Quantitative Social Science Undergraduate Senior Theses

Utility-scale battery storage is accelerating at an unprecedented pace as the world increasingly relies on renewable energies to power grids. Demand for data centers has produced record-high electricity demand, and utility-scale batteries are becoming crucial in supporting the grid and the variability of renewables. As a result, analysis on the efficacy of policy drivers of battery storage will provide the field with a roadmap for the most impactful policy solutions to spur battery storage deployment. This paper estimates the effect of state battery storage mandates on cumulative installed battery capacity using a staggered difference-in-differences (DiD) design following Callaway and Sant’Anna …

The Relationship Between Government Bailouts And Risk-Taking Behavior In Banks: A Case Study From The Great Financial Crisis Of 2008-09, Derek J. Cameron

Economics Working Papers

This study seeks to determine whether the expectation of a government bailout in the event of a crisis incentivizes ex ante risk-taking in banks. Although this subject has been the subject of extensive research in both economics and finance, this specific paper differs from existing literature in that it uses a strictly empirical methodology with minimal theoretical modeling and few assumptions about the banking sector, while also considering the entire banking sector and limiting itself exclusively to ex ante bank investment decisions. This study employs data compiled from various sources about 11 American banks of various sizes between January 2002 …

Fiscal And Monetary Policies For Inclusive Growth In Developing And Emerging Markets, Collins Anosike

Journal of Global Awareness

The study examined the effects of monetary and fiscal policies in attaining inclusive growth for some developing countries and emerging markets. The study selected 20 countries and grouped them into group one and group two. The study is unique because it captures a broader range of countries compared to previous studies and shows their effect on economic growth. We use panel data and employ OLS regression and Johansen cointegration. We examine how each variable, general government expenditure, gross national expenditure, total revenue, official exchange rate, broad money, and deposit interest rate, affects the dependent variable (real GDP) from 1980 to …

Crop Yield Shocks And Conflict In Sub-Saharan Africa: Subnational Evidence From Satellite-Based Yield Predictions, Benson I. Adomako

Master's Theses

This paper examines whether crop yields affect violent conflict at the subnational level across seven Sub-Saharan African countries: Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Mali, Malawi, Niger, Nigeria, and Tanzania, over the period 2010 to 2024. A central identification challenge is that observed yields are endogenous to conflict: armed violence disrupts planting, cultivation, and harvest. To address this, I train a machine learning model on observed maize yield and satellite and environmental features to generate predicted yields for 1,338 second-level administrative districts annually. These predictions serve as the key regressor in a two-way fixed-effects panel with district and year fixed effects. I find …

Spatial Analysis Of Maize Yields And Household Dietary Diversity In Sub-Saharan Africa: Causal Evidence From A Machine Learning Instrument, Addi Joof

Master's Theses

MAIZE YIELDS AND HOUSEHOLD DIETARY DIVERSITY IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: EVIDENCE ON THE CAUSAL EFFECT FROM A MACHINE LEARNING INSTRUMENT

Addi Joof, University of San Francisco, May 2026

This paper provides estimates of the effect of maize yield on household dietary diversity across seven Sub-Saharan African countries, using data from 36,474 maize-growing households in the Living Standards Measurement Study Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) panels for the period 2008--2021. OLS estimates which include district and country-by-wave fixed effects yield a positive and significant coefficient of 0.070 (SE = 0.006, p < 0.001), implying that a 10 percent increase in maize yield raises the Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS) by approximately 0.007 food groups. Because self-reported yields are subject to classical measurement error and unobserved household characteristics confound the OLS estimate, we construct an instrumental variable using a Random Forest model trained on satellite-derived agro-environmental features including the Enhanced Vegetation Index, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Growing Degree Days, precipitation, and soil moisture obtained from Google Earth Engine at the GPS-coordinate-by-year level. Our preferred 2SLS specification, which adds region fixed effects to absorb persistent sub-national geographic variation, returns a positive point estimate of 0.217 (SE = 0.206; 95% CI: -0.19 to +0.63, p = 0.294) larger than OLS and consistent with downward attenuation bias, but imprecisely estimated and statistically indistinguishable from zero at conventional levels. We interpret the OLS estimate of 0.070 as a credible lower bound on the true effect, with the IV evidence pointing to a moderately larger but uncertain magnitude. Heterogeneity analysis reveals a declining gradient across consumption quintiles the effect is strongest among the poorest households (Q1: 0.055, p < 0.01) and diminishes with wealth (Q5: 0.015, not significant) while showing no gradient across market-integration levels. These patterns are consistent with own-consumption, rather than market income from surplus sales, as the primary pathway from yield to dietary diversity. OLS estimates are positive and significant in five of six estimable countries. The findings suggest that maize yield improvements can serve as a nutrition co-investment, particularly for subsistence-oriented smallholders, though the available data do not permit a sharp causal quantification of the effect size.

Keywords: dietary diversity, maize yields, instrumental variables, Sub-Saharan Africa, LSMS-ISA, satellite …