Econometrics Commons^™

Crop Yield Shocks And Conflict In Sub-Saharan Africa: Subnational Evidence From Satellite-Based Yield Predictions, Benson I. Adomako

Master's Theses

This paper examines whether crop yields affect violent conflict at the subnational level across seven Sub-Saharan African countries: Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Mali, Malawi, Niger, Nigeria, and Tanzania, over the period 2010 to 2024. A central identification challenge is that observed yields are endogenous to conflict: armed violence disrupts planting, cultivation, and harvest. To address this, I train a machine learning model on observed maize yield and satellite and environmental features to generate predicted yields for 1,338 second-level administrative districts annually. These predictions serve as the key regressor in a two-way fixed-effects panel with district and year fixed effects. I find …

Spatial Analysis Of Maize Yields And Household Dietary Diversity In Sub-Saharan Africa: Causal Evidence From A Machine Learning Instrument, Addi Joof

Master's Theses

MAIZE YIELDS AND HOUSEHOLD DIETARY DIVERSITY IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: EVIDENCE ON THE CAUSAL EFFECT FROM A MACHINE LEARNING INSTRUMENT

Addi Joof, University of San Francisco, May 2026

This paper provides estimates of the effect of maize yield on household dietary diversity across seven Sub-Saharan African countries, using data from 36,474 maize-growing households in the Living Standards Measurement Study Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) panels for the period 2008--2021. OLS estimates which include district and country-by-wave fixed effects yield a positive and significant coefficient of 0.070 (SE = 0.006, p < 0.001), implying that a 10 percent increase in maize yield raises the Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS) by approximately 0.007 food groups. Because self-reported yields are subject to classical measurement error and unobserved household characteristics confound the OLS estimate, we construct an instrumental variable using a Random Forest model trained on satellite-derived agro-environmental features including the Enhanced Vegetation Index, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Growing Degree Days, precipitation, and soil moisture obtained from Google Earth Engine at the GPS-coordinate-by-year level. Our preferred 2SLS specification, which adds region fixed effects to absorb persistent sub-national geographic variation, returns a positive point estimate of 0.217 (SE = 0.206; 95% CI: -0.19 to +0.63, p = 0.294) larger than OLS and consistent with downward attenuation bias, but imprecisely estimated and statistically indistinguishable from zero at conventional levels. We interpret the OLS estimate of 0.070 as a credible lower bound on the true effect, with the IV evidence pointing to a moderately larger but uncertain magnitude. Heterogeneity analysis reveals a declining gradient across consumption quintiles the effect is strongest among the poorest households (Q1: 0.055, p < 0.01) and diminishes with wealth (Q5: 0.015, not significant) while showing no gradient across market-integration levels. These patterns are consistent with own-consumption, rather than market income from surplus sales, as the primary pathway from yield to dietary diversity. OLS estimates are positive and significant in five of six estimable countries. The findings suggest that maize yield improvements can serve as a nutrition co-investment, particularly for subsistence-oriented smallholders, though the available data do not permit a sharp causal quantification of the effect size.

Keywords: dietary diversity, maize yields, instrumental variables, Sub-Saharan Africa, LSMS-ISA, satellite …

Fueling Reactions: Three Empirical Essays On Behavioral Responses, Economic Shocks, And Energy Markets, Euclides Coelho De Medeiros Correia

Economics Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation examines how shocks in energy and commodity markets propagate through local economies and reshape human behavior, spanning three empirical essays that connect energy markets to electoral behavior, commodity price dynamics, and criminal violence.

Investigating The Relationship Between Noun Classes And Plant Folk Taxonomy In Chasu Language Of Kilimanjaro Region In Tanzania, Peter Rabson Mziray

Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences

The current study investigates the relationship between noun classes and plant folk taxonomy in Chasu (G 22). The study focuses on two objectives: the first objective is to describe the plant folk taxonomy in Chasu and the second objective is to determine the relationship between noun classes and plant folk taxonomy in Chasu. Data were collected from rural villages in Same and Mwanga districts by using free listing, field interviews (jungle-walk-and-identify), and written texts containing Chasu plant names. The findings reveal that Chasu folk taxonomy reflects different ethnobotanical categories; including a unique beginner which is mmea/mimea ‘plant(s)’, and three life …

Mitigating Agricultural Income Volatility: Evidence From Crop Insurance Adoption In India, Annoushqa Bobde

Master's Theses

Income volatility resulting from crop loss presents a significant threat to rural livelihoods in India, where nearly half of the workforce is employed in agriculture. This study examines the causal impact of crop insurance uptake on farm income using nationally representative data from the 70th and 77th rounds of the National Sample Survey, merged with satellite-derived climate data and Harmful Degree Days (HDD), which is used as a proxy for crop-damaging temperature. To address selection bias in insurance enrollment, Propensity Score Matching, Inverse Propensity Weighting, and a Two-Way Fixed Effects model are used. Results show that insurance uptake is associated …

Three Essays On Sustainability Economics, Hélène Flore Nguemgaing

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

As global economies face increasing resource dependencies and supply chain challenges, it becomes essential to understand the vulnerabilities that threaten economic stability. This dissertation investigates three empirical issues in agribusiness and critical minerals using econometric models to estimate the following: 1) the impact of supply chain disruptions on stock market returns during COVID-19; 2) the extraction of rare earth elements from acid mine drainage treatment by investigating the impacts of ownership and legislation in West Virginia and Pennsylvania; 3) China-to�FOBb (Free-on-Board) price transmission in rare earth elements markets: a copula-based dynamic tail dependence analysis.

The first essay evaluates how events …

Utilizing Extreme Value Theory To Uncover Yield Distributions From Farm And County Level Historical Corn Yields, Gerald H. Van Tassell

Department of Agricultural Economics: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Yield risk represents a major portion of the financial risk facing corn producers and is found in the left tail of the yield distribution. Traditional methods for generating yield distributions fall into two categories: parametric and non-parametric. The shape and behavior of the tail of parametric yield distributions are determined by distributional assumptions. Non-parametric distributions fail to account for the possibility of as yet unseen extreme events, often referred to as “Black Swans”. Extreme Value Theory (EVT) rectifies these issues by providing an empirical, parametric estimate of the risk of extreme events, regardless of the underlying distribution of corn yields. …

Stock Market Volatility In The United Kingdom: Simulating Post-Covid-19 Recovery, Bala A. Dahiru, Mohammed Shuaibu, Najibullah Hassanov

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates the time it would take for the FTSE-100 index to reach its post-COVID-19 peak. The paper utilises an exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) model that accounts for leverage effect and asymmetries. The preferred models amongst competing variants was the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA)-EGARCH(2,1) specification and was used to predict daily FTSE-100 data from 5th January 2000 to 21st June 2024. The empirical exercise showed that the COVID-19-induced financial crisis negatively affected the United Kingdom’s stock market performance. The results show that the FTSE100 index could reach its post-pandemic peak around 27th August, 2024 (two months after …

Exploring The Relationship Between Load Shedding And Crime In Gauteng, Bhavesh Ram

Master's Theses

This study investigates the impact of load shedding, a recurring power outage phenomenon in South Africa, on crime rates in the densely populated Gauteng province. Using a novel dataset that combines Eskom's load shedding schedules with detailed crime statistics from 2015 to 2022, a fixed-effects regression model is employed to examine the relationship between blackout hours and various crime categories. Findings reveal that while load shedding does not significantly affect overall crime rates, it significantly increases the incidence of contact crimes and sexual offenses, particularly during daylight hours. Additionally, our results provide evidence that load shedding diminishes the ability of …

Impact Of Temperature On Children’S Nutrition: A Comparative Study Of Three Ecological Regions Of Nepal, Prakriti Shakya

Master's Theses

Nutrition obtained during the growth period of childhood significantly influences long-term well-being and overall productivity, ultimately contributing to the economy of a society. However, weather shocks can wreak havoc by damaging crops, changing yields of important crops and disrupting market access, which directly impacts the food intake of both adults and children. When these adverse events occur during childhood, short term and long term inadequacy in nutrition as well as disease incidence can cause malnutrition leading to stunted growth and cognitive impairment that may persist into adulthood, affecting the labor market and increasing health expenditure. To address this issue, we …

The Impact Of Index Based Livestock Insurance (Ibli) On Child Nutrition In Marsabit County, Kenya, Jackson Kadyampakeni

Master's Theses

The study uses six rounds of Index-Based Livestock Insurance (IBLI) panel surveys (2009 – 2015) for Northern Kenya’s Marsabit county to investigate the impact of IBLI on child nutrition and household food security. We employ Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Instrumental Variable (IV) regressions to account for potential endogeneity in IBLI uptake. The results indicate that while IBLI uptake significantly improves the intake of key nutrients such as Vitamin A, protein, iron, and fruits and vegetables, it does not translate into significant improvements in child nutrition status, as measured by Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) z-scores. Significant negative effects of age …

Consumer Demand For Food Products, Price Surge, And U.S. Public Policy: An Empirical Economic Analysis, Clement Olivier Codjia

Theses and Dissertations--Agricultural Economics

This dissertation, by leveraging advanced econometric modeling approaches and exploiting suitable large datasets, investigates consumer food product demand in a setting of change in regulating policies as well as unforeseen price increases. Three chapters have mainly enabled the dissertation to achieve its research goals, which have been explicitly presented in Chapter 1 along with the background as well as the core problem the studies have elaborated on.

Given that soft drinks stand out as a major cause of obesity and overweight worldwide, whereas the United States is the country most concerned with this problem, experts have agreed that labels and …

Three Essays On Externalities Of Energy And Agricultural Production, Taiwo Foluso Akinyemi

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

This dissertation consists of three essays exploring the externalities that arise from energy production and development in a developing country, Nigeria, and agricultural production in a developed nation, the United States (US). The research examines the benefits of energy development in terms of its impact on local wealth and the associated costs, including the health effects on communities living near energy production sites. Additionally, the dissertation analyzes the opportunity costs of policies aimed at preventing the relocation of nutrients, particularly nitrogen fertilizers, within the agricultural sector and their impact on the producer and consumer surplus.

The first essay examines the …

Impact Of Forest Plantations On Energy Poverty: An Assessment Of Reforestation Efforts In Uganda, Matilda Kabutey-Ongor

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

This study investigates the socio-economic impacts of reforestation initiatives on energy poverty in three Ugandan districts—Hoima, Dokolo, and Nakasongola. Implemented by the Ugandan National Forest Authority, these efforts aim to mitigate the adverse effects of deforestation, exacerbated by a growing population and increased demand for forest products. We hypothesize that through sustainable afforestation, access to biomass and other renewable energy sources can be improved, thereby alleviating energy poverty. The study establishes a causal relationship between reforestation and reductions in energy poverty and general poverty using advanced econometric methods, such as Ordinary Least Squares regression, Weighting, and matching techniques including Propensity …

Reducing Food Scarcity: The Benefits Of Urban Farming, S.A. Claudell, Emilio Mejia

Journal of Nonprofit Innovation

Urban farming can enhance the lives of communities and help reduce food scarcity. This paper presents a conceptual prototype of an efficient urban farming community that can be scaled for a single apartment building or an entire community across all global geoeconomics regions, including densely populated cities and rural, developing towns and communities. When deployed in coordination with smart crop choices, local farm support, and efficient transportation then the result isn’t just sustainability, but also increasing fresh produce accessibility, optimizing nutritional value, eliminating the use of ‘forever chemicals’, reducing transportation costs, and fostering global environmental benefits.

Imagine Doris, who is …

Modelling The Naira Exchange Rate Dependence Using Static And Time-Varying Copula, Kabir Katata

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper examines the dependence structure of different currencies versus the Nigerian Naira using constant and time-varying copula. Daily Naira/USD, Naira/Yuan, Naira/Pound, and Naira/Euro exchange rates from 23 December 2011 to 12 May 2020 were utilised. We fitted eight constant and time-varying copula families using the exchange rate standardised residuals. The study finds that the Naira exchange rate may be estimated with student t-copula, Symmetrized Joe-Clayton (SJC), or Rotated Gumbel copula models and Autoregressive (AR)– Glosten Jagannathan RunkleGeneralized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GJR-GARCH) (1,1) models with skewed t residuals for margins. The Naira exchange rate returns is timevarying, tail-dependent, and asymmetric. …

Climate & Conflict: View Into A Warming World, Faelynn Carroll

Master's Theses

Unlike weather patterns, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a large-scale, cyclical climate system that is now predictable for up to a year and a half in advance. ENSO cycles occur every two to seven years for approximately two years at a time, affecting large swaths of the globe with plausibly random variation in the exact location and strength of local effects. However, its systemic nature allows for aggregate effects to be accounted for by its outcomes. This research uses novel 0.5 x 0.5 degree ENSO teleconnection analysis for precipitation and temperature to uncover environmental mechanisms that underly the …

Climate Change: The Ultimate Cereal Killer: The Impact Of Temperature And Precipitation On Agricultural Yields, Hayley Huber, Robert Salita, Ruth Abraham

Gettysburg College Headquarters

The global food supply depends on agricultural production, but as the negative effects of climate change are exacerbated by human activity, how will agriculture need to change to accommodate both climate change and the increasing population? In order to understand what adaptations will be necessary, we perform analysis on the relationship between climate change (temperature and precipitation) and crop yields (barley, rice, and soybean). We take a multinational approach, using ten countries for each model, to see the global impact of climate change on production. Testing many models, we settle on country-specific time trends, eliminating many confounding variables by focusing …

Food Price And Inflation Adjustments In Nigeria: Evidence From Threshold Cointegration, Usman A. Bello, Aliyu R. Sanusi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates two stages of transmission through which inflation stabilization policy affects headline inflation by estimating a threshold cointegration model. The paper finds that asymmetric monetary shocks passing-through food prices exerts inflationary pressure on consumer prices, and is characterized by deep asymmetric movement, large degree of stickiness in adjusting downward, while exhibiting upward momentum in correcting food price fall. In addition, asymmetries were found in consumer price adjustment as food price shock transmits substantial inflationary pressure to consumer prices, while disinflationary effect originating from a fall in food price is inconsequential. The coefficients of adjustment were found to be …

Modelling The Impact Of Government Expenditure On Economic Growth In Nigeria: The Moderating Effects Of Oil And Non-Oil Revenue, Victor U. Ijirshar, Gaius M. Asombo, Florence D. Bundepuun, Ashifa Tersugh, Ayila Ngutsav

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth and assesses the moderating effects of oil revenue and non-oil revenue in Nigeria from 1981 to 2021. The study uncovered short-term asymmetry in the government expenditure-economic growth nexus while the long-term relationship was symmetric. The study found that government expenditure is a significant determinant of economic growth in Nigeria and that oil and non-oil revenue influences the nexus between government expenditure and economic growth in Nigeria positively. The study recommends efficient management of oil revenue, directing investments during high revenue periods and ensuring fiscal sustainability. Government should also establish …

Improving The Efficiency Of Exponential Ratio-Type Estimator For Population Median: A Calibration Weight Adjustment Approach, Mathew J. Iseh, Kufre J. Bassey

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper modifies the Bahl and Tuteja exponential ratio-type estimator for population median under simple random and stratified sampling schemes using calibration weight adjustment technique with supplementary information to vary the stratum weights. The bias and mean square error of the modified estimator were obtained up to the second-order approximation, which satisfies the necessary conditions for efficiency. The findings show that the new estimator surpasses existing estimators in efficiency gain. This suggests the appropriateness of calibration weight modification in boosting the efficiency of a population parameter estimator under stratified random sampling especially where the population parameter of the auxiliary variable …

Charcoal, Droughts, And Deforestation: Evidence From Mozambique, Kaitlin N. Paull

Master's Theses

Mozambique is prone to harsh weather conditions due to its geographic location, and these conditions are expected to worsen in the face of ongoing climate change. Many of Mozambique’s farmers rely on rain-fed agriculture, meaning their livelihoods are highly vulnerable to worsening weather trends. Some farmers have diversified their incomes with charcoal production, making use of Mozambique’s abundant forest resources. This study measures how reliance on charcoal as an income diversification strategy affects forest loss, and found inconclusive effects of rainfall on deforestation. However, the study does find that a one-unit increase in hot degree days increases the probability of …

Sweet And Timely Insurance: The Role Of Honey In Reducing Coffee Producer Food Insecurity Exposure In Mexico, Grant Xavier Storer

Master's Theses

Smallholder coffee producers face a combination of pre- and post-harvest risk factors that leaves them particularly vulnerable to food insecurity. A popular form of on-farm diversification is honey production through beekeeping, that has both nutritional and commercial value. This study investigates the role of honey production as means of food security management due to the heightened pollinating activity during the coffee flowering stage that follows the annual coffee harvest provides an additional non-contemporaneous source of income. Using primary data collected in coffee-producing regions of Chiapas, Mexico, I find that during the honey harvest months, which occurs during the early stage …

A Forestry Trade Data Discrepancy Analysis, Morgan Alyce Daigle

LSU Master's Theses

Trade data across multiple databases experience unavailability across some countries/forestry products, inconsistency, and unreliability; and these qualities manifest as discrepancies in the data. Literature provides evidence of discrepancies and inconsistencies within international trade statistics, including documented cases in which they are present within agriculture sector trade.

While researchers have worked to pinpoint factors to explain discrepancies, studies on the forestry trade databases are not as prevalent. Therefore, more research needs to be conducted to identify discrepancies within forest sector products trade data to understand the nature of discrepancies found between different bilateral trading partners.

The goal of this thesis is …

Three Essays On Health And Environmental Economics: Applications Of Spatial Econometrics And Spatial Analysis, Mohammed Syedul Islam

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

Spatial interaction and the locational structure between observations play key roles in the field of econometrics for both cross-sectional and panel data analysis. Compared to a non-spatial econometric model, a spatial model relaxes the assumption of independency in observations. This research applies spatial and non-spatial econometrics in three different fields of applied economics: (1) drinking water and air quality violations impacts on lung and bronchus cancer incidence in the contiguous United States (U.S.); (2) spillover effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on COVID-19 cases across the contiguous U.S. counties; and (3) urbanization impacts on carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in …

Savings-Investment Gap In Sub-Saharan Africa: Does The Interaction Of Financial Sector Development And Migrant Remittances Matter?, Wasiu Adekunle, Oluwatosin Adeniyi, Joshua Afolabi, Musibau Babatunde, Edward Omiwale

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study analyses the interactive effects of migrant remittances and financial development on savings-investment gap for a panel of 18 Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries from 1990-2017. Results from a panel ARDL model show that migrant remittances reduce savings-investment gap in the long run. The gap is further reduced when the individual effect of financial development, and the interactive effects of migrant remittances and financial development are taken into consideration. Further analysis reveals evidence of widening effects of rising real GDP growth and bank deposits over a long-term horizon, while higher private sector credit widened the savings-investment gap only in the …

Do Philippine Stocks Catch Coronavirus? Some Econometric Check-Up On Pandemic Data, 2021-2022, Mark Reniel M. Amarila, Luisito C. Abueg

Journal of Economics, Management and Agricultural Development

Using daily data from March 1, 2021 to March 31, 2022, the USD-PHP exchange rate and pandemic-related variables such as the number of cases, vaccinations, and stringency index in relation to the movements of Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) were investigated. The paper views vaccination as an instrument for reducing economic uncertainty, subsequently providing a positive sentiment for investors and stock market. Ordinary least squares, autoregressive distributed lags, and vector autoregression was used to show some dynamics based on time series data. Particularly, there are indications of reported cases being negatively correlated and statistically significant for PSEi. Further, impulse response …

Effect Of Monetary Policy Rate On Market Interest Rates In Nigeria: A Threshold And Nardl Approach, Oluwafemi E. Awopegba, Joseph O. Afolabi, Lydia T. Adeoye, Godwin O. Akpokodje

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the effect of monetary policy rate (MPR) on market interest rates in Nigeria. For parsimony, we develop two indexes called the short-term interest rate (SINT) and Lending interest rate (LINT) to represent deposit and lending rates respectively. The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) and threshold regression models are adopted. The study uses monthly data from 2002:M1 to 2019:M12. The results of the threshold regression model indicate that the degree of the effect of MPR on SINT and LINT above the estimated threshold of 11 and 13 percent respectively is greater and significant than if MPR were to …

Social Dimension Of Inclusive Growth In Ecowas: Implication For Poverty Reduction, Toriola K. Anu, Goerge O. Emmanuel, Ajayi O. Felix

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the implication of the social dimension of inclusive growth on poverty reduction in Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) countries. It specifically examines how social indices of inclusive growth comprising of income inequality, education, and health outcomes affect poverty reduction. The study uses a panel dataset of the six (6) lower-middle income countries in ECOWAS which was analysed via panel Difference Generalised Method of Moment (D-GMM). The results show that GDP per capita exerts significant negative effect on poverty while inequality, education and health outcomes do not show significant effect on poverty. Although, the estimates of …

Effect Of Fdi Inflows On Employment Generation In Selected Ecowas Countries: Heterogeneous Panel Analysis, Timothy A. Aderemi, Olawunmi Omitogun, Bukonla G. Osisanwo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The aim of this study is to examine the effect of FDI on employment in ECOWAS sub region between 1990 and 2019. The study utilizes a panel autoregressive distributed lag model to analyse the short run and long run relationship between FDI and employment across ECOWAS sub region. In the short run, the impact of FDI on employment is negative and statistically not significant. Meanwhile, in the long run FDI has a positive and statistically significant impact on employment rate. This implies that FDI has the capacity to generate employment in countries in ECOWAS sub region. Therefore, this study recommends …